Shortstop ADP Market Report: 1/19/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising
Adalberto Mondesi (+5.91)- Mondesi is slowly moving towards being a top 20 pick in fantasy. The upside is huge considering his power and speed profile. The risk is huge as well when you are talking about a player that has a career .284 on base percentage and an almost 30% strikeout rate and has dealt with injuries in his short career. If you are risk averse then he is not the player for you, but if you shoot for the moon, Mondesi is a rocket that can take you there.

Top 100 Players Falling
Corey Seager (-6.46)- I am a little surprised to see Seager beginning to drop. Part of that is because we are starting to see a huge rise in pitching in the top 25-50 picks. Seager had a monster season after two years in 2018 and 2019 that were shortened by injuries. His StatCast data was out of this world and there is no reason to think that if he can stay on the field like he did in 2020, he could return top 20 value, but there is still risk that the injuries pop back up.

Top 200 Players Rising
Tommy Edman (17.38)- See the article in this series on second basemen.

Top 200 Players Falling
Jonathan Villar (-10.96)- See the article in this series on second basemen.

Didi Gregorius (-12.63)- Gregorius is dropping in drafts in part because he has yet to sign with a team. He shrugged off the injury bug in 2020 to put up a really nice season and play in every game for the Phillies. There are some concerns aside from him still being a free agent. His StatCast data is really ugly. His exit velocity and hard hit percentage were both in the bottom eight percentile of the league and his barrel percentage wasn’t much better. He has benefited from nice home parks from his career and I have doubts he can keep hitting for the same kind of power if he lands in a worse park than Philly or New York. I am fading him until I see him sign like many others appear to be.

Top 300 Players Rising
Ha-Seong Kim (+45.68)- Kim had another larger jump in ADP which is directly tied to his signing in San Diego. He has shown power and speed in the KBO, hitting 30 home runs and stealing 23 bases, with a .306/.397/523 triple slash in 138 games in 2020. I don’t have any questions that the speed and hit tool will carry over after watching him during the MLB shut down last spring. I do have some concerns that the power won’t translate as well, We have seen some power hitters do well from the KBO like Eric Thames and others fail like ByungHo Park 박병호. The upside is huge, but there is risk considering how stacked this Padres team has become.

Andres Gimenez (+26.43)- See the article in this series on second basemen.

Chris Taylor (+14.22)- Taylor has been an under appreciated fantasy player for a few years, but it seems like people are starting to catch on a bit. He is triple eligible and he has now been a full time player in two of the last three seasons. With it looking like Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez won’t be back, Taylor should be in line for a full time role once again and should deliver his draft value and more.

Willi Castro (+14.37)- Castro is emerging as a popular sleeper among fantasy players this year after having a surprising power burst in 2020 considering that he was expected to be more of a hit tool and speed kind of asset. I am definitely not sold on the power considering his atrocious exit velocity and hard hit percentage. The speed is definitely there and I buy into the hit tool, but I do worry that the speed won’t translate into a ton of stolen bases at the Major League level. The Tigers were tied with the fifth fewest stolen bases in the Majors and new manager A.J. Hinch was not one who pushed it on the bases in Houston. If the price goes up much more, he becomes a player to fade.

Top 300 Players Falling
Wander Franco (-64.07)- Franco had another big tumble in the ADP which is probably tied to him leaving Winter League ball with a biceps injury. Franco is widely considered the best prospect in the game, but there are some concerning things aside from the injury. Some information came out that his launch angle was minuscule and that the power may not be there yet. Long term, he still is a beast of a prospect, but being in Tampa, who knows when he will be up? However, the cheaper he becomes, the more enticing he is in deeper formats. Risk/reward play.