After taking last week off, I’m back to make a brief examination of some pitchers who worry me with their declining velocity. There is no good news today. It’s just some pitchers who could be headed for a demotion or the IL.

Some quick housekeeping. The entire list of pitchers and their fastball changes are available on this spreadsheet. With more data available, I examined at the past two weeks of data for the in-season information. Finally, an injury value of -100 is bad and +100 is good.

Note: Sorry for the short article but real life got in the way and I want to make sure I have time to go through the AL lineups tomorrow.

Carlos Rodon
2018 FBv: 93.0
2019 FBv: 91.5
Last two week: 90.6

Note: This was written before he went on the DL

The 26-year-old seemed to have finally righted the boat after dealing with injuries and wildness for several seasons. In his first five starts this season, he had a 2.89 ERA and 11.3 K/9 (huge jump over 8.8 K/9 career value). Two blowup starts came against offensive powerhouses Detroit and Baltimore and now he has a 5.19 ERA fueled by a 4.4 BB/9.
Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been struggling this fantasy season when it comes to providing my best possible content. The root cause is that I’ve put more of my own skin in the game by joining a couple of NFBC leagues. Other owners deal with the same issue. For example, I had the following Twitter conversation this past weekend.

In a 15-team league, how much are you both bidding on Karter Kieboom?

😉

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 28, 2019

In all fairness, it’s a legit question coming into the weekend’s FAAB period. Carter Kieboom just got promoted and bids were going to be high for him. What got my request denied was that both Al (in Tout Wars) and Matt (NFBC Main Event) are in 15-team leagues with me. If someone else would have asked the question, would they have given an honest answer? Maybe. Would I take their honest answer and use it against them? Maybe.

I never thought others would steal my suggestion to use against me in my leagues until last season. In The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, I had a strong feeling two owners checked out my Tout Wars bids which ran FAAB on Sunday at noon. There was plenty of time for the owners to analyze my bids before the evening bids ran. Every week the same two owners beat me out on each of my sleeper picks. It got a little annoying.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sorry for not posting last week. I took a little mid-week vacation. These are the players being dropped in the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues which have 23 active players, seven bench spots, and no IL.

Hurt

• Joey Wendle (31): A broken hand for a borderline rosterable player equals waiver wire fodder.
• Roman Quinn (24): It’s easy to drop someone hitting .120/.185/.120 who heads to the IL with a strained groin.
• Ryan Zimmerman (18): He has been dealing with plantar fasciitis for bit and heads to the IL to hope it improves.
• Alex Wood (15): Owners gave up on him with his latest injury setback. He’s too close to replacement level to keep on a limited bench.
• Bo Bichette (15): The combination of a broken hand the Blue Jays conservative promotion schedule had owners dumping him.
• Jordan Zimmermann (13): Elbow issues have forced him and his 5.93 ERA to the wire.
• Matt Kemp (13): A rib injury has forced the struggling (.200/.210/.283) off rosters.
• Nathan Eovaldi (12): Elbow surgery
• Alex Reyes: Meet Hunter Strickland’s stepbrother.
• Cody Allen: Horrible results (6.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP) and a back injury.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s just two big popup names this week, Griffin Canning and Carter Kieboom. And some closer darts. The rest are just some players moving up or down a small bit. It’s just not an exciting week for FAAB, but injuries last weekend’s sent the bids into a huge cluster f___. Hopefully not this week.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the hitters who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.
Read the rest of this entry »

Angels

• Justin Bour could be droppable at this point. He is not starting against lefties and has only played in five of the last 10 games.
• David Fletcher (.301/.341/.410) has started 14 straight games. Fletcher has been playing at third with Tommy La Stella (.232/.329/.551) at second which means the struggling Zack Cozart (.109/.157/.125) is on the bench. Recently promoted Luis Rengifo looks to join the infield mix.

Astros

• The top-six spots are set.
• One outfield spot rotates with Josh Reddick, Jake Marisnick, and Tony Kemp taking turns.
• Tyler White is a half-time DH with regulars rotating through it for a break.

Athletics Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

I believe there are some diamonds in the rough available this week. It’s tough to know who exactly. Will Michael Chavis grab Bostons second base job? Is Scott Kingery going to play full time? Will one of Robert Stephenson, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly or Diego Castilla get Saves? Maybe one or two.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the pitchers who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.

Read the rest of this entry »

Angels

• They are getting decimated by injuries and ineffectiveness. Since Mike Trout has returned, he’s been the DH with Albert Pujols (.735 OPS) playing first base and Justin Bour (.628 OPS) on the bench.
• Tommy La Stella has secured the second base job by hitting a decent .226/.328/.472. The batting average may be a drag, he’s a perfect sub in OBP leagues.
• Brian Goodwin (.900) seems to have forced himself into the left field job while Justin Upton is on the DL and Peter Bourjos (.243 OPS) is struggling.
  Read the rest of this entry »

After going over the pitchers who changed their velocity from 2018 to 2019, the pitchers who have seen changes this year get highlighted today. For the first week or so, pitchers who saw major adjustments were in the crosshairs of the fantasy community. But who from that list kept the changes? A pitcher’s talent shouldn’t get anchored to one early-season report. It’s time to dive in.

About the data

• I use the fastball’s average spin rate and velocity along with the pitcher’s overall Zone% to come up in the Injury metric. With spin rate, I’ve seen pitchers try to keep up their velocity while dealing with an injury and the pitch’s spin changes. As for Zone%, if a pitcher is having issues finding the plate, they may have something mechanically wrong.
• The Injury value ranges from a -100 (several negative forces are at work) to +100 (major improvements).
• A pitcher can have more than one fastball in the table
• When examining the 2019 data, I’m comparing velocities from the past week to fastballs thrown before this past week.
• All the numbers are available in this overall spreadsheet.

Read the rest of this entry »