FAAB Projections for Week 11

by
June 1, 2019

I thought some weeks were boring but this week may take the cake. Some interesting rookie starters like Devin Smeltzer and Zach Plesac are available but it’s a whole lot of blah.

Again, here are the parameters for the values.

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Week 11 Hitter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Zach Plesac SP | CLE 0% 11% 11% $24
Genesis Cabrera SP | STL 0% 6% 6% $21
Shawn Armstrong RP | BAL 0% 4% 4% $35
Devin Smeltzer SP | MIN 1% 26% 25% $43
Tommy Milone SP | SEA 1% 7% 6% $21
Ryan Weber RP | BOS 2% 8% 6% $21
Ariel Jurado SP | TEX 2% 4% 2% $20
Dinelson Lamet SP | SD 8% 10% 2% $20
Jon Duplantier SP | ARI 10% 16% 6% $21
Zack Britton RP | NYY 14% 17% 3% $35
Jose Urena SP | MIA 17% 26% 9% $24
Brendan McKay SP | TB 17% 20% 3% $21
Ryan Yarbrough RP | TB 18% 33% 15% $30
Scott Oberg RP | COL 20% 31% 11% $47
Mitch Keller SP | PIT 20% 28% 8% $24
Marcus Walden RP | BOS 21% 28% 7% $41
Eric Lauer SP | SD 24% 41% 17% $34
Dylan Bundy SP | BAL 24% 30% 6% $23
Jake Junis SP | KC 25% 29% 4% $22
Dakota Hudson RP | STL 27% 32% 5% $23
Ty Buttrey RP | LAA 27% 29% 2% $37
Ryan Pressly RP | HOU 28% 31% 3% $38
Nick Pivetta SP | PHI 30% 47% 17% $36
Trevor Richards SP | MIA 30% 38% 8% $26
Alex Reyes SP | STL 32% 48% 16% $35
Sergio Romo RP | MIA 33% 42% 9% $47
Shawn Kelley RP | TEX 33% 39% 6% $43
Casey Mize SP | DET 33% 35% 2% $23
Tanner Roark SP | CIN 42% 47% 5% $26
Pedro Strop RP | CHC 44% 47% 3% $44
Michael Pineda SP | MIN 48% 50% 2% $26

● The soft-tossing Devin Smeltzer gets the nod as the most desired pitcher. On Tuesday, he threw six shutout innings, striking out seven batters, and walking no one.

● Tommy Milone is almost a perfect clone of Smeltzer and will go for half the cost. Milone has added a slider which has become a great compliment to his change. His sub-90 mph fastball will continue to get hit around.

● Zach Plesac allowed one run in over five innings of work and his final price will be heavily influenced by his Sunday results.

● Closer rankings for the relievers listed.

  1. Sergio Romo
  2. Pedro Stroop
  3. Shawn Kelley
  4. Shawn Armstrong
  5. Ty Buttrey
  6. Scott Ohberg
  7. Ryan Pressly
  8. Marcus Walden
  9. Zach Britton

● Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrell are must-adds if available.

Week 11 Hitter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 0% 3% 3% $22
Cesar Puello LF | LAA 0% 3% 3% $22
Matt Wieters C | STL 1% 5% 4% $22
Harold Ramirez RF | MIA 2% 8% 6% $24
Hanser Alberto SS | BAL 3% 10% 7% $26
Will Smith C | LAD 3% 8% 5% $23
Elias Diaz C | PIT 4% 7% 3% $22
Keon Broxton CF | BAL 4% 7% 3% $22
Mark Canha CF | OAK 5% 10% 5% $24
Jake Marisnick CF | HOU 5% 9% 4% $23
Jose Iglesias SS | CIN 6% 9% 3% $23
Addison Russell SS | CHC 8% 16% 8% $28
Bryan Reynolds CF | PIT 9% 27% 18% $51
Carson Kelly C | ARI 10% 17% 7% $28
Tony Wolters C | COL 10% 14% 4% $24
Lourdes Gurriel SS | TOR 15% 46% 31% $111
Albert Almora CF | CHC 16% 24% 8% $32
Renato Nunez 3B | BAL 18% 42% 24% $80
Nick Ahmed SS | ARI 22% 26% 4% $30
Howie Kendrick 2B | WAS 26% 38% 12% $47
Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB 26% 32% 6% $35
Oscar Mercado CF | CLE 29% 39% 10% $45
Scott Kingery SS | PHI 30% 36% 6% $38
Kyle Seager 3B | SEA 31% 41% 10% $47
David Fletcher 2B | LAA 39% 52% 13% $63
Brett Gardner LF | NYY 39% 43% 4% $43
Kyle Tucker LF | HOU 41% 44% 3% $44
Avisail Garcia RF | TB 42% 54% 12% $64
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 42% 49% 7% $52
Derek Dietrich LF | CIN 43% 78% 35% $174
Cavan Biggio 2B | TOR 43% 57% 14% $71
Mallex Smith CF | SEA 46% 50% 4% $50
Hunter Renfroe LF | SD 47% 60% 13% $73

● The potential wallet busters this week are two players, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Renato Nunez, who have been available for weeks. Both of them have busted out recently. Since being recalled from the minors, Gurriel has posted a 1.378 OPS. Since May 20th, Nunez has a 1.419 OPS with seven homers. If either of one is available, they will likely fetch a nice price.

● Bryan Reynolds is a must-own in all formats at this point.

● Cesar Puello has slashed .545/.583/1.091 in two games. If 28-year-old rookie keeps it up, he could cost a decent amount to a desperate owner.

● At this point, Bryan Reynolds is a must own.

● Mike Yastrzemski is another 28-year-old who loves the new Happy Fun Ball while hitting .273/.360/.545 so far this season.

● Keon Broxton’s trade to Baltimore may really help his fantasy value as it did with Jonathan Villar last season.

2019 Week 10 FAAB Results
Name Avg Bid Count (38 leagues)
Scott Oberg $55 38
Cavan Biggio $131 38
Kevin Cron $69 37
Keon Broxton $32 35
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $73 35
Ryan Yarbrough $25 30
Marcus Walden $34 29
Matt Adams $15 28
Mark Canha $20 22
Luis Rengifo $20 21
Alex Reyes $26 20
Renato Nunez $35 18
Hanser Alberto $5 16
Daniel Ponce de Leon $11 15
Jake Marisnick $20 15
Carson Kelly $5 14
JaCoby Jones $15 14
Harold Ramirez $23 14
Elias Diaz $12 13
Garrett Cooper $10 13
Brad Keller $13 13
Tony Wolters $8 13
Sean Newcomb $22 12
Jackie Bradley Jr. $51 12
Ryan Weber $9 11
Daniel Norris $7 11
J.D. Davis $15 11
Chris Iannetta $5 10
Albert Almora Jr. $24 10
Tommy Milone $6 10
Roberto Perez $6 9
Julio Urias $28 9
Josh Naylor $15 9
Luis Urias $13 9
John Means $14 8
Eric Thames $15 8
Tyler Chatwood $19 8
Carlos Gomez $8 8
Cal Quantrill $13 8
Austin Hedges $17 8
Hunter Strickland $18 8
Trevor Cahill $8 7
Nathan Eovaldi $20 7
Kyle Seager $42 7
Lou Trivino $7 7
Jose Urena $13 7
Charlie Tilson $17 7
Daniel Mengden $17 7
Mike Fiers $18 7
Colin Moran $7 7
Logan Forsythe $10 6
Willy Adames $27 6
Derek Fisher $13 6
Brian Anderson $33 6
Ian Kennedy $10 6
Ryan Brasier $13 6
Mitch Garver $27 6
Mike Zunino $5 6
Jose Iglesias $9 6
Jon Duplantier $14 6
Tim Beckham $29 6
Rowdy Tellez $30 6
Jakob Junis $26 5
Anibal Sanchez $7 5
Jason Heyward $20 5
Jeff Samardzija $61 5
Pedro Strop $43 5
Pedro Severino $2 5
Eric Lauer $23 5
Chase Anderson $13 5
Ji-Man Choi $16 5
Andrew Cashner $3 5
Bryan Reynolds $21 5
Aaron Sanchez $45 5

 

2018 Week 11 FAAB Results
Name Avg Bid Count (34 leagues)
Frankie Montas $28 30
Clay Buchholz $22 28
Harrison Bader $21 26
Yairo Munoz $18 26
Mike Montgomery $19 25
Nick Williams $17 25
Dennis Santana $13 20
Joe Panik $23 19
Nathan Eovaldi $30 19
Anthony DeSclafani $16 16
Max Muncy $53 16
J.R. Murphy $33 16
Jason Heyward $11 15
Randal Grichuk $43 13
Clayton Richard $10 12
Justin Anderson $26 12
Jose Urena $17 12
Franmil Reyes $26 11
Shane Bieber $17 11
Greg Allen $14 11
Brent Suter $9 11
Hunter Renfroe $16 10
Adam Engel $5 10
Kyle Crick $15 10
Robert Gsellman $11 10
Chris Stratton $8 9
Johan Camargo $11 9
Steven Wright $8 9
Carlos Rodon $42 9
Dan Winkler $12 8
Shelby Miller $16 8
Joey Wendle $6 8
Daniel Descalso $18 8
Dexter Fowler $31 8
Devon Travis $7 7
Kevin Kiermaier $8 7
Seth Lugo $24 7
Johnny Field $4 7
Max Stassi $24 7
Andrew Suarez $8 7
Gorkys Hernandez $30 7
Jon Jay $6 7
Mark Melancon $42 7
JaCoby Jones $9 6
Blake Swihart $4 6
Orlando Arcia $10 6
Ronald Guzman $8 6
Sandy Leon $8 6
Joc Pederson $11 6
Alex Colome $14 6
Jason Vargas $8 6
Drew Pomeranz $33 6
Kirby Yates $13 6
Mike Leake $19 5
Sergio Romo $17 5
Ketel Marte $7 5
Jorge Polanco $6 5
Brad Keller $25 5
Jackie Bradley Jr. $28 5
Chris Owings $20 5
Wade LeBlanc $17 5





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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docgooden85member
4 years ago

What is so obviously all-formats must-own about Bryan Reynolds? (No explanation given in either one of the dueling plugs.) Much like a hot Nunez (whose skill profile is utterly common in MLB – all power no hit & just enough HRs to be playable), is there no room to be skeptical of the underlying skills? Is he so amazingly good that there is just no need to even say why (twice)? From the admittedly high horse on which I’m perched, Reynolds looks kinda like a hot just-a-guy who plays in a pitchers park and has had a few good weeks. I’m open to be persuaded to buy in but just saying “do it” isn’t moving my needle to tell you the truth . I don’t actually know everything despite what I tell people at the bar so feel free to educate me.

1
cartermember
4 years ago
Reply to  docgooden85

Well, he has mashed in near a qualifying amount of at bats with a wRC+ of 160. If you filter for 130 plate appearances he has the 3rd highest batting average, and a wRC higher than Jorge Polanco. He was mashing in the minors as well, as at the very early point in the season when he was called up he was leading his league in HRs as well. By all accounts he is an average defender, and a switch hitter with no discernible splits so he shouldn’t get platooned. He is only 24 and hit a fair amount of doubles in the minors. A power breakout with tightened balls/ getting older isn’t something that seems too far fetched. Tbf I might be biased as I own him in all my NFBC main leagues, but I have also watched more than 75% of his at bats and he never looks over matched. The babip is going to come down obviously, but if you look at his spray chart he isn’t someone you can shift on, and his average EV is elite, right next to Yandy Diaz.

1
Travis Lmember
4 years ago
Reply to  carter

The projections have him somewhere around average bat, moving forward. They already taken into account his minor league numbers. Remove the 2019 minor league #s (already in the projections), and regress the hot start considerably for outcome-based metrics, and I don’t see much of a reason to like him over a number of other players.

This kind of evaluation is exactly the situation where we should rely on projections to beat prognostication.

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