Author Archive: Jeff Zimmerman

I’ve been writing some variant of this pitcher transformation article from the beginning of spring training containing information from spring training velocities to pitch mix changes. With a new pitch or extra velocity, a pitcher can quickly change from one talent level to another. With the season now in full gear, the major preseason changes are known but now it’s time to start finding those pitchers who are slowly transforming themselves mid-season. Every week I hope to focus on these pitchers.

David Price

The 33-year-old Price continues to be a fastball/changeup pitcher. He keeps hitters off guard by throwing three different fastballs (cutter, sinker, four-seam). As his velocity has dropped, he’s started relying on his changeup increasing its usage from 14% in 2017 to 22% last year and finally 29% this year. The pitch has been dynamite with a 21% SwStr% and helped propel his strikeout rate from a 9.1 K/9 last year to career-high 10.5 K/9 this season. He’s pulling the old-man trick of throwing his non-fastballs more to stay relevant.

Rant: I’m not sure why pitchers wait until they start declining to make the change. Why not make the change immediately and become an ace.

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For the drops, I use the NFBC Main Event (38 teams) where owners are more likely to stay active with more skin the game. Here is who they are dropping and why.

Injured

● Matt Adams (30): He continues the circle of life of injured Nationals. Ryan Zimmerman makes one of his annual trips the IL and Adams stepped up. And gets himself hurt. Jake Noll and Howie Kendrick have each played first base since Adams went down.

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There are a couple of big names this week, Lowe and Canning, and some potential closer roles up for grabs but overall it’s a slow week.

The guidelines

• • The ownership rates are from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based for 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used $1000 FAAB. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS are examined.

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Angels

● There is some recent movement going on. Tommy La Stella has led off the last two games. Brian Goodwin is batting third. Kole Calhoun is batting sixth. Justin Bour is batting eighth. And finally, Luis Rengifo is batting 9th.

● David Fletcher is the big loser but he may play against a lefty starter. The Angels haven’t faced one since the lineup change.

● Justin Bour’s playtime maybe coming to an end with his poor performance (.174/.283/.314) and Shohei Ohtani returning from the IL in a couple of weeks.

Astros

● One of the few consistent lineups. The team continues to have one rotating spot for regulars to DH or take a break. When no one needs a breather, Tyler White is the DH.

Athletics

● It’s in flux, but I’m not sure if it’s a change or just random stuff.

● It seems like Jurickson Profar is headed to the bench. He’s only played in one of the last four games.

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After taking last week off, I’m back to make a brief examination of some pitchers who worry me with their declining velocity. There is no good news today. It’s just some pitchers who could be headed for a demotion or the IL.

Some quick housekeeping. The entire list of pitchers and their fastball changes are available on this spreadsheet. With more data available, I examined at the past two weeks of data for the in-season information. Finally, an injury value of -100 is bad and +100 is good.

Note: Sorry for the short article but real life got in the way and I want to make sure I have time to go through the AL lineups tomorrow.

Carlos Rodon
2018 FBv: 93.0
2019 FBv: 91.5
Last two week: 90.6

Note: This was written before he went on the DL

The 26-year-old seemed to have finally righted the boat after dealing with injuries and wildness for several seasons. In his first five starts this season, he had a 2.89 ERA and 11.3 K/9 (huge jump over 8.8 K/9 career value). Two blowup starts came against offensive powerhouses Detroit and Baltimore and now he has a 5.19 ERA fueled by a 4.4 BB/9.
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I’ve been struggling this fantasy season when it comes to providing my best possible content. The root cause is that I’ve put more of my own skin in the game by joining a couple of NFBC leagues. Other owners deal with the same issue. For example, I had the following Twitter conversation this past weekend.

In a 15-team league, how much are you both bidding on Karter Kieboom?

😉

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 28, 2019

In all fairness, it’s a legit question coming into the weekend’s FAAB period. Carter Kieboom just got promoted and bids were going to be high for him. What got my request denied was that both Al (in Tout Wars) and Matt (NFBC Main Event) are in 15-team leagues with me. If someone else would have asked the question, would they have given an honest answer? Maybe. Would I take their honest answer and use it against them? Maybe.

I never thought others would steal my suggestion to use against me in my leagues until last season. In The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, I had a strong feeling two owners checked out my Tout Wars bids which ran FAAB on Sunday at noon. There was plenty of time for the owners to analyze my bids before the evening bids ran. Every week the same two owners beat me out on each of my sleeper picks. It got a little annoying.

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Sorry for not posting last week. I took a little mid-week vacation. These are the players being dropped in the 38 NFBC Main Event leagues which have 23 active players, seven bench spots, and no IL.

Hurt

• Joey Wendle (31): A broken hand for a borderline rosterable player equals waiver wire fodder.
• Roman Quinn (24): It’s easy to drop someone hitting .120/.185/.120 who heads to the IL with a strained groin.
• Ryan Zimmerman (18): He has been dealing with plantar fasciitis for bit and heads to the IL to hope it improves.
• Alex Wood (15): Owners gave up on him with his latest injury setback. He’s too close to replacement level to keep on a limited bench.
• Bo Bichette (15): The combination of a broken hand the Blue Jays conservative promotion schedule had owners dumping him.
• Jordan Zimmermann (13): Elbow issues have forced him and his 5.93 ERA to the wire.
• Matt Kemp (13): A rib injury has forced the struggling (.200/.210/.283) off rosters.
• Nathan Eovaldi (12): Elbow surgery
• Alex Reyes: Meet Hunter Strickland’s stepbrother.
• Cody Allen: Horrible results (6.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP) and a back injury.

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It’s just two big popup names this week, Griffin Canning and Carter Kieboom. And some closer darts. The rest are just some players moving up or down a small bit. It’s just not an exciting week for FAAB, but injuries last weekend’s sent the bids into a huge cluster f___. Hopefully not this week.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the hitters who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.
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