Author Archive: Paul Sporer

I’m running a little behind on my top 15s to keep up with Brad’s “Way Too Early” rankings, so I’ll be looking to get 2B and 3B out this week, and maybe even SS.

• Starting Pitchers Part 1, Part 2
• First Base

The middle infield positions really saw some of the biggest gains in 2016 thanks to the leaguewide power surge. I thought the position ran pretty deep in last year’s drafts, but I think it’s even deeper now. I’m only rolling out 15 here and there are another 10 I’d be OK slotting in as my starting 2B, let alone putting them at the MI slot. Yes, the upper tier is obviously better, but after that it really starts to cluster.

Let’s just get into it!

Jose Altuve | Astros – I’m coming out firing with big surprises at the top, eh? Altuve showed that the 2015 power jump wasn’t a fluke by adding to it. He nearly doubled his HR/FB rate and popped 24 homers, more than he had the past two seasons combined (22). There was a cost, though. His stolen bases dropped for the second straight season, including a major falloff in the second half which seemed to be tied to his move into the third spot of the lineup.

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11/11/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Leading Off: Question of the Day

• Who closes for the Angels? [3:40]

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Braves sign Bartolo Colon (1/$12.5)  [10:00]
• Braves sign R.A. Dickey (1/$8)
• Blue Jays sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (7/$22)  [16:30]

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There is no denying that this year’s free agent class is weak, especially compared to recent years that all had multiple big-ticket stars. Yoenis Cespedes moves the needle as do Edwin Encarnacion and closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but that’s about it in the top tier. The weakness of the free agent market offers hope at a robust trade market this winter. The league tilted toward a have/have-nots setup this past year with 11 teams finishing at least 20 games out of first in their division, up from seven each of the last two seasons.

The contenders will be looking to buy from the pretenders while the pretenders will be get a chance to stockpile young talent for their next big run. The turnaround time in baseball has shortened as teams are open trusting young players much more these days. There are many huge names who could feasibly be moved and while most of them won’t be, I think we will see some superstars change teams via trade. I’ve plucked three interesting pitchers and mapped out a trade path for each. I’ll have a trio of hitters soon, too.

Chris Sale

• To StL: Sale

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Chat starts around 3 PM Central today! Let’s talk baseball!!

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11/09/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Guest Details:

• Doug Thorburn
• Sammy Reid
• Baseballholics Anonymous

Guest Rundown:

• Biggest 2016 Takeaway
• Divisive Players:
  • Bryce Harper
  • Trea Turner
  • Gary Sanchez
  • Javier Baez
• Effect of Playoff RP Usage
• Pick Analysis 6th Rd and Later
  • 2 They Liked
  • 2 They Didn’t

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One of my favorite parts about coming out to Phoenix for the Arizona Fall League and Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forum is getting to do my first draft of the year. I’ve already done mocks, but this is my first draft that actually gets played out. It’s a 50-round NFBC Draft & Hold league. For those unfamiliar with the format, it’s just as the name says, you draft and hold these 50 guys for the entire season. There are no waiver periods at any point. We always do the first 23 rounds out here and then complete the final 27 online starting in January. The D&H format alone is really cool, but the added wrinkle of a split draft makes this one of my most unique drafts every season.

I posted the results from last year’s iteration of this draft – well the first 23 rounds, at least. As amazing* as my first 23 went, I only finished 9th out of 15. I just didn’t uncover too many gems in those other 27 rounds to cover my misses in the first 23. Nomar Mazara, Sean Manaea, and Vince Velasquez were my only substantial hits from the second half of that draft. Perhaps unsurprisingly, pitching carried my team. I had a 28.5/45.5 hit/pitch point split. The pitching was 6th-best, but only three teams had worse hitting than mine. But enough of that team. Time for a new one!

*sarcasm… obviously

Initially, I didn’t think I was going to be able to participate this year. The drafts were scheduled for Friday night, but Mother Nature had other plans for me. We normally go to a game and have a welcome reception on Thursday night of this event, but it was rained out. Yes, it was rained out in Arizona. To fill the time, they decided to host a draft Thursday night which allowed yours truly to play after all! Today, we’ll take a look at my first five rounds. I’ll do another piece covering the rest of my 23 as well as identify where some intriguing players went throughout the draft.

The NFBC does something called Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) draft slotting so when they pick the names out of the hat, you then get to pick what slot you want out of the ones left. I’ve been doing this draft here since 2012 and never picked early. My highest pick has been 8th and I’ve regularly picked 14th or 15th. This year I was hoping to have my name pulled early so I could get a high pick.

And it actually happened!!

I was third or fourth of the hat and wound up with the second pick. Interestingly, my first two picks this year are the same two I got at pick 15 a year ago. Let’s take a look:

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11/04/16

I’m still on the road so I won’t be able to do a full rundown with topics and time tags, but I’ll try to get it updated on Sunday the 6th.

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live… and so are we!!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Leading Off: Question of the Day

• Where are you taking Trea Turner?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Cameron Maybin to LAA
• Dexter Fowler declines option
• Neil Walker likely to get QO

Strategy Section: NFBC Draft

• We discuss a bunch of players!

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Last month, I put up my early pitcher rankings and I’m going to go position-by-position along with Brad’s “Way Too Early” series starting with first basemen. I’ll circle back to catchers at the end since he already did his two weeks ago. I usually put my initial lists together in preparation for my trip to First Pitch Arizona coming up later this week where I compete in the first half of a 50-round draft and hold NFBC league. Jason and I will actually be doing a live episode of the podcast at the same time of the draft this year so I won’t be able to participate, but I’ll share my first run of rankings instead.

(I’m including a couple DHs because there aren’t enough DH-only guys for their own set of rankings unlike 2016)

Paul Goldschmidt | Diamondbacks – He’s still the best of the bunch as one of the few 5-category first basemen in the game. His career-high 32 SBs this year gave him his fourth season of at least 15 SBs in the last five. It likely would’ve been 5-for-5 had he not missed the last two months of 2014 with injury. Goldy was hitting .223 through the first 40 games of this season, but no one seemed to bat an eye as it was tied to an uncharacteristically low BABIP of just .258, nearly 100 points lower than his .356 career mark.

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Chat moved up to today! We’ll start around 2 PM Central.

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The end of the MLB season is one of the worst parts of the year. I annually lessen the pain of this by journeying out to First Pitch Arizona for my last fill of baseball before long, stupid winter. Not only are we watching baseball, but it’s centered around a fantasy baseball conference with some of the best people in the industry… and me. I’m leaving Thursday morning so I’ll be there in time for one of the afternoon games which means with the three attendee games already on the docket, I’ll see a total of four regular games in addition to the Fall Stars Game on Saturday night.

My favorite aspect of the Fall League is learning about guys I’m not too familiar with just yet. Don’t get me wrong, it’s awesome seeing the Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of the prospect world. But for someone who doesn’t dedicate a ton of time to prospects (especially lower level ones), it’s a great opportunity to see some of the next level guys in living color. Keep in mind that any time I say I “discovered” someone at the AFL whether on the pod or in a piece, I mean for myself, not that I was on this guy ahead of everyone else.

For example, Baseball Prospectus ranked Nolan Arenado 20th ahead of the 2011 season, but I knew next-to-nothing about the 20-year old going into his High-A season. Watching obliterate the Fall League later that year put him on my radar. He was so good. I didn’t see a single bad at-bat from him in the handful of games, even the outs. Better examples would be Brian Dozier and Mookie Betts.

Neither were on prospect lists in advance of their AFL season so seeing them excel actually gave me a jump in my fantasy leagues. Don’t get me wrong, not everyone I fall for out there winds up being a stud. I loved what I saw out of Chris Heisey, Grant Desme, and Dustin Ackley to name a few. Two are fourth outfielders and the other – Desme – quit baseball to become a priest. You win some, you lose some.

One guaranteed win is watching baseball in Arizona in early November when most of the country is whipping out their jackets. (I mean, I take my jacket to Arizona because that shiz gets really cold at night! But during the day it’s sunny and awesome.)

I’ve got a shortlist of guys I’m looking forward to seeing out there this week and I should get a chance to see them all, even if it’s only at the Fall Stars game:

Gleyber Torres – NYY – SS

The key piece of the Aroldis Chapman is lighting up the league so far with a 1.077 OPS in 32 AB, good for 4th in the league. Before we go any further, I’ll note that the AFL is a hitting league due to not only the environment and ballparks, but also the talent distribution. There are often many more top hitting prospects than pitching ones. Pitchers have usually bumped up against the inning caps by season’s end so we don’t always get the cream of the crop.

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