Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – November 2nd, 2016

Chat moved up to today! We’ll start around 2 PM Central.

2:07
Paul Sporer: World Series Game 7!!!!

2:08
Paul Sporer: Let’s roll…

2:08
JD15: With Montgomery looking great in a Cubs uniform so far, do you think he makes Jason Hammel a trade piece (1 Yr Option $10MM)

2:09
Paul Sporer: Yeah I can definitely see it because I’ve heard the grumblings of Monty going back into the rotation next year. He’s still gonna be just 27 years old

2:09
The Dude: I think Hammel looks like a filthy relief option to be honest

2:10
Paul Sporer: For some reason he can’t make it to the finish line

2:10
Paul Sporer: First half ERAs the last 3 yrs: 3.01, 2.86, 3.46; second half: 4.31, 5.10, 4.35

2:11
Paul Sporer: The thing is, most teams are totally down for 170 IP of a mid-to-high 3.00s ERA which is what he’s done the last three years so I think he still starts unless maybe the Cubs themselves transition him

2:11
CoreyII: Is Lester lost without Ross next year? Will his #s take a dip?

2:11
Paul Sporer: Unsure because Rossy has caught all but 3 of his innings

2:12
Sean: 12 team, keep 8, extra categories OBP, SLG, XBH, BB, K. Was offered Addison Russell for my Benintendi a week ago. Have Machado at short now. Should i accept it?

2:13
Paul Sporer: I definitely would. I’m obviously a Russell honk, but even apart from that, I’d be interested in the guy who already has some substantial MLB experience

2:13
mjdunksonbrady: yes paul.. everyone is so focused on kluber tonight.. do you think that hendricks isn’t being given enough credit and can potentially outshine him in this game 7

2:13
Paul Sporer: bahahahahahahahahahahaha that handle

2:14
Paul Sporer: He could outshine Kluber, but Kluber has definitely earned the hype with 30.3 IP of a 0.89 ERA

2:14
Paul Sporer: (not that Hendricks’ 1.31 in 20.7 isn’t dope)

2:18
Bruce: Not a fantasy q, but – Is there anything stopping The Indians from DLing Bauer or Tomlin to bring up some pinch runner or someone on their 40-man that may help? They could say Bauers finger is reinjured

2:19
Paul Sporer: Not sure how it’d work or what the burden of proof is for a move

2:23
hooha: What do you expect out of Stanton next year?

2:24
Paul Sporer: I have a hard time not expecting more of the same at this point: lots of homers and some time missed to injury

2:24
Daddy Dale2188: Hello

2:24
Paul Sporer: Hiii Dale

2:24
The Dude: I’m sure Bauer would sacrifice for the team and re-open the wound on his finger for a ring.

2:26
Paul Sporer: Hahaha perhaps, but he could also possibly throw an inning out of the pen tonight

2:26
Nelson: What do you think Theo was doing when he saw Chapman coming out for the 9th?

2:26
Paul Sporer: Trusting Joe Maddon the way he has all season

2:26
Daddy Dale2188: Are the Cardinals gonna be GOAT again next year or is it always the next year now like it was for the Cubs?

2:27
Paul Sporer: I think they’re in a little bit of a transition, but they’re not going anywhere. Healthy Wacha and C-Mart gives them a dynamic 1-2, but they need that health, obviously

2:28
Paul Sporer: Some of their past studs are aging out, but the next wave is nice: Piscotty, Diaz, Grichuk, Gyorko (only 27), Wong, and Adams

2:29
Paul Sporer: Cubs will still be the favorites, but I don’t expect STL or PIT to go away and MIL is on the come up, too. That NL Central is nasty

2:29
Nelson: Do you think Blanton hurt his next contract with his playoff performance?

2:30
Paul Sporer: Nah, teams don’t major judgments off of a couple outings

2:33
Steve: Do you see Garrett breaking camp with the Reds next year?

2:33
Paul Sporer: Very low chance of breaking camp, but early call-up is definitely possible

2:34
Paul Sporer: He’ll be 25 years old knocking on the door, so advancements in his command shown in Spring Training could definitely yield a spot with the team

2:36
Zigs: Why is it baseball analysts are so concerned with 20-grade power guys (billy hamilton, roman quinn, dee gordon) and their inability to draw a walk. Doesn’t the fact that a pitcher will pound the zone regardless (kinda like Dan Haren) because they know that the worst that can happen is a double? Thus limiting their chances of drawing a walk. Instead of talking about a players inability to draw walks isn’t it a better use of time to talk about their contact ability and whether or not they can’t command the zone (not swinging at bad pitches)

2:38
Paul Sporer: I’m not sure that too much time is wasted on it, though. It’s usually added-on “and he can’t take a walk to save his life”. I think under the umbrella of that walk stuff is the inability to control the zone and avoid swinging at bad pitches, too. I get your point, but in practice I’m not sure too many analysis hours are spent hammering those guys for their inability to walk. What it really boils down to – for me, at least – is their OBP. If they achieve that via hits or walks, I don’t care. But sub-.300 OBPs don’t fly.

2:38
C Money: Any ideas how Schwarber’s eligibility will pan out next year? I play on ESPN and am hoping to still have him as a Catcher

2:39
Paul Sporer: They shouldn’t, but we’ll see. He only played 2 games, but it was at OF and that’s where he’ll be primarily next year, too. I can’t think of any time where we reverted back to previous to make up the gap if a player didn’t play 20 games so I’m not sure we should for Schwarber

2:39
Moltar: Bregman or G Sanchez in a h2h points for next season?

2:42
Paul Sporer: That’s tough. I think I might lean Bregman right now, the notion being that his extra playing time makes up the gap in Sanchez’s power advantage. Sanchez was excellent this year, but we saw his absolute best month and another solid one. The ebbs and flows of a 6-month season are going to be very different. I’m certainly torn and the difference may be negligible when I really line them up in a top 150 or whatever, but I’ll lean Breg

2:42
C Money: Hey Paul… Would you keep deGrom and Carrasco at $16 each in a 10tm h2h $260 W L SV ERA WHIP K9 league? We have 12 keepers and I’ll keep at least 8 bats. I also have Scherzer at $36

2:44
Paul Sporer: Ya I can get behind, especially if you’re keeping way more hitters

2:44
Paul Sporer: Maybe keep Max, too, and then 9 hitters

2:44
Choo Choo: Dynasty league. Would you offer Donaldson $25 and Conley $2 to get a cheaper, younger Bryant $15?

2:44
Paul Sporer: Yessir

2:45
ben: Hey Paul, I know you love keeper question but help me with this one? Keep 2 of Trea Turner, Wil Myers, Kyle Schwarber in an OPS h2h league. Having a hard time….

2:48
Paul Sporer: I’m not anti-keeper question, especially at this point in the year. I always just want context and you’ve delivered some, but # of teams would be helpful, too. I think i go Turner and Myers. I’m not sure Myers swipes another 28 bags, but even 15 or so is huge in this SB-starved era.

Myers’ 2H wasn’t great (.697 OPS), but he still managed 9 HR and 13 SB. Even just doubling that for an 18/26 season with a modest triple slash would have some value and obviously he has the upside to do much more.

2:48
Daddy Dale2188: LIT that’s what I like to hear ??

2:48
Paul Sporer: Yeah don’t sweat your Cards, they aren’t about that losing life

2:48
Moltar: Is part of the Cubs’ thinking with Chapman that he’s a free agent after tonight and they could care less if his arm falls off?

2:49
Paul Sporer: Nah, I don’t think there’s any malicious thinking with it. He threw 20 pitches. I don’t think it ruins him for tonight

2:50
Minty: Do you think that Baez will ever truly improve his offensive consistency, or should we just appreciate what he is?

2:52
Paul Sporer: I do think he’ll improve. There’s a lot of talent there. His K and BB rates won’t ever been exemplary, but I could see something like Starling Marte’s evolution: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9241&position=OF

2:52
The Dude: I remember when Gyorko hit 20 bombs with the Padres as a SS and it was a big deal.

2:54
Paul Sporer: I remember that! I’ve never really bought in on Gyorko. I listed among StL’s next wave because he is younger than their crusty veteran core and can be a solid middle-of-the-roster piece (like a 1-3 WAR player)

2:58
Dumpster Fiers: A Wednesday surprise! Do you ever find yourself in dynasty leagues simultaneously buying and selling? I have a playoff caliber team, but have been offered good products for some of my veteran contributors. I’ve at least been trying to get the prospects that can contribute next year….like trading Ellsbury to get Winker

2:59
Paul Sporer: I usually go one way or the other, but when you can balance the two, it’s pretty great!

2:59
Rasta: I believe MLB has to approve any roster changes mid-series. Also can’t sub out a player with a pre-existing injury, if memory serves.

2:59
Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t think it’d really fly, interesting hypothetical, though

3:02
Eric: What sort of line do you think Benitendi puts up next year?

3:03
Paul Sporer: I think I said like .280-20-12 in a previous chat. I can’t remember 100%, though

3:03
C Money: What kind of line do you expect for Manuel Margot next year?

3:03
Paul Sporer: .260-5-30

3:03
C Money: Thanks for the feedback!

3:03
Paul Sporer: No problem!

3:03
Toki: What do you think Greg Bird does coming back next year? top 8 1b?

3:06
Paul Sporer: That’s lofty in his first full season. Even in his great sample of ’15, he still fanned 30% of the time. .250-27 or so

3:07
Pomeranz: most realistic expectations next year for alex reyes?

3:08
Paul Sporer: 3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, boatload of Ks

3:08
Bregman: $2 Moncada for a $50 Miggy in a 12 team OBP driven H2H? I’m trying to win it all next year, and I don’t like the idea of keeping a Moncada in the minors on my team ($275 total budget)

3:08
Paul Sporer: If you’re going for it, I’m in. It’s tough to trade someone who could be the next big thing, but that’s not your focus right now with a chance at the crown

3:08
Michael: Since title flags fly forever do u see miggy/verlander to the sox for benintendi & propects trade. Tigers get younger & cheaper?

3:09
Paul Sporer: You out here trying to break my heart with the Tigers trading Miggy AND JV in one fell swoop to the Red Sox?!?!?!??

3:10
Paul Sporer: It would take a mint for sure. Even though they’re paid big time, the Red Sox would still have to come correct with a healthy prospect package. I honestly don’t see a total teardown of the Tigers. I think J Up gets moved, maybe they pick up K-Rod’s option and flip him, and then some supplemental moves, but I’m not sure either JV or Miggy is moved

3:10
Cracker Jack: I want you to declare right now that you believe Tom Murphy will hit more HR’s than Gary Sanchez next year. Do it! Do it now!

3:10
Paul Sporer: LOL

3:10
Books: Paul! I’ve decided to trade one of Benintendi or Dahl in my keep-forever standard-categories league. Which one will I regret trading more?

3:11
Paul Sporer: Dahl. Coors is so awesome. And it’s not like I’m saying he’d be some Coors creation, just that he’s awesome AND has Coors

3:11
Moose: Hey Paul – Does the decline in reliable SB production combined with so many power options across the league make Billy Hamilton a potentially valuable long term fantasy asset? Weighing keeping him over Trumbo in a 10-team/5×5 roto/10-keeper format (any 10 players with no price/round attached). I figure Trumbo’s power will be much easier to replace than Hamilton’s speed…and it’s my last keeper spot – pretty stacked everywhere else. Thanks

3:12
Paul Sporer: In your specific example, I can get behind it, but the power explosion might not be all positive for the speed-only guys because it puts that much more burden on the other roster spots to pick up the HR and RBI slack

3:12
Cracker Jack: You just said Coors is so awesome. So is that a maybe on the Murphy has more HR’s than Sanchez?

3:12
Steve: Where do you see Tom Murphy in the catcher ranks for next season?

3:15
Paul Sporer: LOL Coors is awesome, but i’ll still take Sanchez. That said, i do like Murphy a bit. I could see him in the top-15 of Cs

3:18
forever it: Do you think Pineda has a bounce-back year? Just traded for him in a dynasty league and hoping the FIP and K rate mean better days are ahead

3:20
Paul Sporer: I don’t know. At this point, we’re hoping to bounce back to 2011, that’s quite a while ago. I just don’t see enough consistent command of his stuff to get his ERA where those FIP totals live. He can fill the zone all day, but they aren’t quality strikes so he gets hit around. He has to prove to me at this point, I won’t just blindly believe

3:21
Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, I gotta get going. I’m sorry to leave some questions in the queue, but I gotta get a haircut and run some other errands before leaving for Phoenix tomorrow for AFL and First Pitch Arizona. Hit me up on twitter @sporer if you still have questions. Otherwise, I’ll see y’all next week!!

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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