My AFL Draft – Setting a Foundation

One of my favorite parts about coming out to Phoenix for the Arizona Fall League and Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forum is getting to do my first draft of the year. I’ve already done mocks, but this is my first draft that actually gets played out. It’s a 50-round NFBC Draft & Hold league. For those unfamiliar with the format, it’s just as the name says, you draft and hold these 50 guys for the entire season. There are no waiver periods at any point. We always do the first 23 rounds out here and then complete the final 27 online starting in January. The D&H format alone is really cool, but the added wrinkle of a split draft makes this one of my most unique drafts every season.

I posted the results from last year’s iteration of this draft – well the first 23 rounds, at least. As amazing* as my first 23 went, I only finished 9th out of 15. I just didn’t uncover too many gems in those other 27 rounds to cover my misses in the first 23. Nomar Mazara, Sean Manaea, and Vince Velasquez were my only substantial hits from the second half of that draft. Perhaps unsurprisingly, pitching carried my team. I had a 28.5/45.5 hit/pitch point split. The pitching was 6th-best, but only three teams had worse hitting than mine. But enough of that team. Time for a new one!

*sarcasm… obviously

Initially, I didn’t think I was going to be able to participate this year. The drafts were scheduled for Friday night, but Mother Nature had other plans for me. We normally go to a game and have a welcome reception on Thursday night of this event, but it was rained out. Yes, it was rained out in Arizona. To fill the time, they decided to host a draft Thursday night which allowed yours truly to play after all! Today, we’ll take a look at my first five rounds. I’ll do another piece covering the rest of my 23 as well as identify where some intriguing players went throughout the draft.

The NFBC does something called Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) draft slotting so when they pick the names out of the hat, you then get to pick what slot you want out of the ones left. I’ve been doing this draft here since 2012 and never picked early. My highest pick has been 8th and I’ve regularly picked 14th or 15th. This year I was hoping to have my name pulled early so I could get a high pick.

And it actually happened!!

I was third or fourth of the hat and wound up with the second pick. Interestingly, my first two picks this year are the same two I got at pick 15 a year ago. Let’s take a look:

First Round (1.2) – Mookie Betts, OF

This back actually got some feedback… not necessarily bad feedback, but there were some raised eyebrows about it, including from our own Paul Swydan – a Red Sox fan. Betts has actually gone 2nd overall in virtually all of the mocks and real drafts I’ve seen so far, including two more live drafts done here in Arizona.

He completely paid off on the hype generated by his 2015 as he became a heart of the order threat. Within that feedback, the primary concern seems to be a fallback on the stolen bases, but I’m not too worried about. Even batting fourth for 36 games, he still went 8-for-9. Yeah, he didn’t run even once in 12 games batting third, but I don’t think batting third or fourth all year will eat his stolen bases. Paul Goldschmidt swiped 30 as a #3 hitter and Trout stole 21 to cite a couple superstar examples who didn’t slow down just because of their batting spot.

Second Round (2.14) – Joey Votto, 1B

Yeah, at pick 15 last year I went Votto/Betts and yet I somehow didn’t win the league!! There’s still an aversion to taking Votto where he should go (late-1st, early-2nd), but that’s fine because it’s more for me. Yeah, he’s 33 next year, but his skills are rock-solid and he’s averaged 592 PA per year the last four seasons even with a 62-game (272 PA) season mixed in there.

I don’t really care that he had a slow start in each of the last two years because the bottom line has still been fantastic thanks to two historic second halves. Sure, it’s annoying in H2H, but I couldn’t possibly care less in roto. What he lacks in prototypical HR power for the position, he makes up with elite AVG.

Third Round (3.2) – Francisco Lindor, SS

Really feel good about this pick. He was the 7th shortstop off the board (Machado, Turner, Correa, Seager, Bogaerts, and Villar) which highlights the depth of the position. There are a few you could justify Lindor over in that group, but nothing egregious. Lindor essentially kept his 2015 pace while adding 59 more games to his ledger. He was a few homers short of the 19 pace which was basically due to a drop in HR/FB rate from 13% to 10%, while he landed right on the 19 SB pace. I’m not sure there’s a lot of growth to his numbers, especially in the short term, but I’d gladly take a 2016 carbon copy. I also see a batting average title in his future, though I’m not banking on anything beyond a solid .290-.305 mark.

Fourth Round (4.14) – Andrew McCutchen, OF

It was the worst season of McCutchen’s career without a doubt thanks in large part to another drop in stolen bases (career-low six) and nearly a 40-point drop in batting average to .256, also a career-low. He still managed 24 HR, 81 R, and 79 RBI which aren’t far off of his 22, 91, and 80 career averages prior to 2016, though the numbers lose some heat when you consider the offensive surge across the league.

He played through a bevy of minor injuries – quad (March), knee (May), thumb (June), and heel (July) – en route to 153 games, a mark only 65 players reached or exceeded this season. He also closed strong with a .280/.372/.471 line, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 27 R, and 3 SB in his last 60 games. I love getting Cutch in the late-fourth of a 15-teamer and if this ends up being his average draft position in 2017, I’ll have many shares. I suspect he’ll bump into late-third, early-fourth by the time we get to March.

Fifth Round (5.2) – Carlos Carrasco, SP

I’m not going to be in on early starters too much in 2017. I’ll still take Clayton Kershaw in the middle of the first round at times, but otherwise I’ll be eyeing the fifth and sixth round for my first starter. The three SPs I most strongly considered here were Carrasco, Stephen Strasburg, and Chris Archer. The margins were close and I would’ve been happy with any of the three. I eliminated Archer because of his AL East opposition being tougher than what Carrasco and Strasburg will face in their divisions.

Injuries were the big consideration for Carrasco and Strasburg as they were just over an inning apart at 146.3 and 147.7 IP, respectively, and my calculus there was that Carrasco’s weren’t directly due to the rigors of pitching or arm-related. He ripped his hammy making a play at first and then Ian Kinsler smashed a liner off his hand one batter into a late-September start. Strasburg had an upper back injury in late-June and then saw his season end early with a sore elbow. I’ve always been pro-Strasburg when it comes to the talent, but this is now four DL stints in the last two years for him.

Carrasco had some issues on the mound in 2016, dropping five percentage points off his strikeout rate and seeing his home run rate surge, but his 12% swinging strike rate was still 13th among SPs with at least 140 IP (and the 4th-highest total when you factor rounding and ties). His HR/FB rate jumped to 16% (11th-worst, 6th with rounding and ties), despite a healthy 1.5 groundball-to-flyball ratio. I still like this skillset quite a bit and feel comfortable with the 30-year old fronting my rotation.

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Later this week I’ll post pictures of all 23 rounds so you can see how it turned out along with a lot of thoughts on where different players went and how I think things could evolve over the winter.