Trading Three Key Pitchers

There is no denying that this year’s free agent class is weak, especially compared to recent years that all had multiple big-ticket stars. Yoenis Cespedes moves the needle as do Edwin Encarnacion and closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but that’s about it in the top tier. The weakness of the free agent market offers hope at a robust trade market this winter. The league tilted toward a have/have-nots setup this past year with 11 teams finishing at least 20 games out of first in their division, up from seven each of the last two seasons.

The contenders will be looking to buy from the pretenders while the pretenders will be get a chance to stockpile young talent for their next big run. The turnaround time in baseball has shortened as teams are open trusting young players much more these days. There are many huge names who could feasibly be moved and while most of them won’t be, I think we will see some superstars change teams via trade. I’ve plucked three interesting pitchers and mapped out a trade path for each. I’ll have a trio of hitters soon, too.

Chris Sale

• To StL: Sale

• To CWS: Alex Reyes, Randal Grichuk, Jack Flaherty, and Tim Cooney

Of course, Sale will be a top trade target this offseason. He’s been a rumored trade piece for years as one of the game’s premiere lefties. The White Sox have certainly tried to put a contender on the field, but it hasn’t come together yet so maybe moving Sale while he still has that organization-changing value is the way to go. He’s signed for $12 million this year and then has options for $12.5 and $13.5 in ’18 and ’19 which are virtually guaranteed to be picked up by any team that has him.

He won’t come cheaply and frankly, I might be underselling the cost with this quartet of names, but I don’t think it’s too far off. I can’t imagine a deal that wouldn’t include one of Reyes or Carlos Martinez as the centerpiece – a big-time young arm the White Sox can insert into their rotation immediately. I think a Sale deal would include a premium starter they can use immediately and a top prospect to develop which is where Flaherty comes in. MLB.com had him 80th on their top 100 last year and he’s a top five prospect for their organization regardless of which outlet is ranking them.

Outfield is another need for the White Sox with Charlie Tilson currently penciled into the lineup and Melky Cabrera a free agent after this season so Grichuk gives them a young, controllable (through 2020) bat who has flashed some big upside and obviously starts paying dividends day one. Cooney is a viable MLB arm who adds some depth for the Sox.

In Sale, the Cardinals get a cheap ace. Lance Lynn is returning from Tommy John and is expected to be ready for Opening Day, but Jaime Garcia is perennially unreliable, Adam Wainwright is 35, and Mike Leake was uninspiring in his first season with the club. I don’t think there rotation is above fixing in a major way.

I think bringing in Sale to get the ace baton from Wainwright is the best use of their trade resources. They’re lineup doesn’t jump off the page on paper, but it’s solid up and down. Reyes can be that ace-level down the line, but he’s unlikely to be a major piece right away given his control issues. Maybe this isn’t their move, but it wouldn’t surprise me and I expect them to make a big splash somewhere.

Justin Verlander

• To BOS: Verlander and cash
• To DET: Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Kopech, and Mauricio Dubon

Verlander has been back at an elite level since the middle of last year, but he’s still a 34-year old arm who’s owed heaps of money through 2019 so the Tigers can’t go asking for a Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi the way the White Sox could with Sale, but that doesn’t mean they’ll sell him for peanuts. Dealing with former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski might make a deal easier, too. Not suggesting he’d roll over for his former team, but the familiarity would no doubt help. That said, to get a major arm like Kopech will require the Tigers to offset that financial burden somewhat.

Bradley just completed his first full season (500+ PA) as a major leaguer and showed there’s more to his game than just the incredible centerfield defense. He’s not super-young (age-27 next season) so there’s not a ton of growth, but he cut his strikeout rate to a palatable 23% while maintaining a healthy 10% walk rate. There were severe highs (May OPS of 1.175) and lows (.651 in August), but it looks like he has an above average bat (110-120 wRC+) with elite defense – a necessity in that spacious Comerica Park center field.

Kopech made the most of what started out as a horrible season. He broke his hand in a fight with a teammate so he didn’t even pitch until June, but his elite velocity was regularly on display, including 105 MPH peak. He also has a PED suspension on his ledger from 2015 so there are definitely questions surrounding the 21-year old and his judgment, but the arm is intriguing enough to be the primary prospect in a blockbuster deal.

I can’t pretend to know a ton about Dubon, having just seen him for the first time at AFL last weekend, but the reports were certainly positive. He’s a strong contact hitter who is expected to remain a shortstop and might even add a little punch as he develops (age-22 season next year). He’s the kind of prospect who doesn’t make waves when the deal is done, but emerges a year or two down the road, similar to Willy Adames, who the Tigers dealt in the David Price deal. Adams has developed into Tampa Bay’s top prospect and while I’m not quite sure Dubon has that kind of upside, I think he can go from top-15 in an organization to top-5.

Verlander is sixth in ERA (2.81) and fourth in WHIP (0.98) since the second half of 2015 with a 27% K rate and 6% BB rate, both substantially better than average (21% and 7%, respectively). He’s also faced the most batters (1286) in that span. He’s back to being a frontline horse. Maybe he doesn’t escalate his velocity inning-to-inning so that he’s pumping 97+ MPH from the seventh inning on anymore, but he still has a 94-95 MPH heater that dominates hitters up in the zone.

(The rumors regarding Verlander and the Dodgers came out after I wrote this so I’ll do one to LA in the second edition if we come up with some other pitchers to deal.)

Wade Davis

• To WAS: Davis
• To KC: Michael Taylor and Reynaldo Lopez

The incumbent closer in Washington, Mark Melancon, will be on the market along with Chapman and Jansen so they could definitely go that way to address their bullpen, but I don’t think we can rule out them going for multiple pieces for the backend of the bullpen. One of the things we’ve heard discussed with Andrew Miller is that some of his flexibility in role comes from the fact that he has his deal already so he’s not worried about piling up saves for arbitration.

I don’t think even with a deal that Chapman will go that route, but I do wonder if Jansen or Melancon would or even Davis himself, who has only been closing for a year and won’t necessarily need more saves to drive up his value next winter. Point is, even if they sign one of the big arms, it doesn’t rule out someone like Davis as far as I’m concerned.

Davis’s 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP were his highest in three years, but that just tells you how great he’s been lately. He doesn’t come risk-free, though. He did drop 1 MPH on the fastball and dealt with a strained flexor that necessitated a DL stint, but he finished his season on the field and looked like his usual self with 15 strikeouts and just one walk in 9.7 IP during September. Plus, he costs just $10 million, less than any of the three studs is likely to per annum after their new deals.

Taylor’s star has definitely dimmed after 791 MLB plate appearances with a 71 wRC+ and a strikeout rate consistently north of 30%. At his best, he’s shown an intriguing mix of speed, power, and defense up the middle. If he can’t cut down the hole in his swing, it’s a fourth outfielder profile, but he is still just 25 (going into his age-26 season) so there’s still some chance at improvement. He can platoon with Jarrod Dyson and spot start against righties if he doesn’t make any advancements.

Lopez would actually be the prize of this deal. I listed Taylor first because he’s the more established name in the deal. Lopez is a hard-throwing righty who made his debut this past season and showed some flashes within his 44 innings. He sat 95-96 MPH and featured two worthy secondary pitches: curveball (25%) and changeup (11%). He had an above average 11% swinging strike rate as a starter, but lost some of it in the bullpen (8%). Lopez would be KC’s best pitching prospect and gives them a close-to-finished arm to develop with Matt Strahm as they sort out the back of their rotation.

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Alright, it’s your turn. What do you think of these? If you’re against one, let me know why. Do you think the team wouldn’t deal someone or is it too much/too little? Even if I’m trading someone you love from your favorite team, try to be rational about it. I’d be pretty bummed if the Tigers traded Verlander, but I also realize that it’s the right move for them if the proper deal comes along.

One last thing: any other pitchers you think are viable trade candidates that you’d like to see me mock trade? If there are enough, I’ll run another piece with 3-5 more.