Trading Three Key Pitchers
There is no denying that this year’s free agent class is weak, especially compared to recent years that all had multiple big-ticket stars. Yoenis Cespedes moves the needle as do Edwin Encarnacion and closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but that’s about it in the top tier. The weakness of the free agent market offers hope at a robust trade market this winter. The league tilted toward a have/have-nots setup this past year with 11 teams finishing at least 20 games out of first in their division, up from seven each of the last two seasons.
The contenders will be looking to buy from the pretenders while the pretenders will be get a chance to stockpile young talent for their next big run. The turnaround time in baseball has shortened as teams are open trusting young players much more these days. There are many huge names who could feasibly be moved and while most of them won’t be, I think we will see some superstars change teams via trade. I’ve plucked three interesting pitchers and mapped out a trade path for each. I’ll have a trio of hitters soon, too.
- To StL: Sale
- To CWS: Alex Reyes, Randal Grichuk, Jack Flaherty, and Tim Cooney
Of course, Sale will be a top trade target this offseason. He’s been a rumored trade piece for years as one of the game’s premiere lefties. The White Sox have certainly tried to put a contender on the field, but it hasn’t come together yet so maybe moving Sale while he still has that organization-changing value is the way to go. He’s signed for $12 million this year and then has options for $12.5 and $13.5 in ’18 and ’19 which are virtually guaranteed to be picked up by any team that has him.
He won’t come cheaply and frankly, I might be underselling the cost with this quartet of names, but I don’t think it’s too far off. I can’t imagine a deal that wouldn’t include one of Reyes or Carlos Martinez as the centerpiece – a big-time young arm the White Sox can insert into their rotation immediately. I think a Sale deal would include a premium starter they can use immediately and a top prospect to develop which is where Flaherty comes in. MLB.com had him 80th on their top 100 last year and he’s a top five prospect for their organization regardless of which outlet is ranking them.
Outfield is another need for the White Sox with Charlie Tilson currently penciled into the lineup and Melky Cabrera a free agent after this season so Grichuk gives them a young, controllable (through 2020) bat who has flashed some big upside and obviously starts paying dividends day one. Cooney is a viable MLB arm who adds some depth for the Sox.
In Sale, the Cardinals get a cheap ace. Lance Lynn is returning from Tommy John and is expected to be ready for Opening Day, but Jaime Garcia is perennially unreliable, Adam Wainwright is 35, and Mike Leake was uninspiring in his first season with the club. I don’t think there rotation is above fixing in a major way.
I think bringing in Sale to get the ace baton from Wainwright is the best use of their trade resources. They’re lineup doesn’t jump off the page on paper, but it’s solid up and down. Reyes can be that ace-level down the line, but he’s unlikely to be a major piece right away given his control issues. Maybe this isn’t their move, but it wouldn’t surprise me and I expect them to make a big splash somewhere.
- To BOS: Verlander and cash
- To DET: Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Kopech, and Mauricio Dubon
Verlander has been back at an elite level since the middle of last year, but he’s still a 34-year old arm who’s owed heaps of money through 2019 so the Tigers can’t go asking for a Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi the way the White Sox could with Sale, but that doesn’t mean they’ll sell him for peanuts. Dealing with former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski might make a deal easier, too. Not suggesting he’d roll over for his former team, but the familiarity would no doubt help. That said, to get a major arm like Kopech will require the Tigers to offset that financial burden somewhat.
Bradley just completed his first full season (500+ PA) as a major leaguer and showed there’s more to his game than just the incredible centerfield defense. He’s not super-young (age-27 next season) so there’s not a ton of growth, but he cut his strikeout rate to a palatable 23% while maintaining a healthy 10% walk rate. There were severe highs (May OPS of 1.175) and lows (.651 in August), but it looks like he has an above average bat (110-120 wRC+) with elite defense – a necessity in that spacious Comerica Park center field.
Kopech made the most of what started out as a horrible season. He broke his hand in a fight with a teammate so he didn’t even pitch until June, but his elite velocity was regularly on display, including 105 MPH peak. He also has a PED suspension on his ledger from 2015 so there are definitely questions surrounding the 21-year old and his judgment, but the arm is intriguing enough to be the primary prospect in a blockbuster deal.
I can’t pretend to know a ton about Dubon, having just seen him for the first time at AFL last weekend, but the reports were certainly positive. He’s a strong contact hitter who is expected to remain a shortstop and might even add a little punch as he develops (age-22 season next year). He’s the kind of prospect who doesn’t make waves when the deal is done, but emerges a year or two down the road, similar to Willy Adames, who the Tigers dealt in the David Price deal. Adams has developed into Tampa Bay’s top prospect and while I’m not quite sure Dubon has that kind of upside, I think he can go from top-15 in an organization to top-5.
Verlander is sixth in ERA (2.81) and fourth in WHIP (0.98) since the second half of 2015 with a 27% K rate and 6% BB rate, both substantially better than average (21% and 7%, respectively). He’s also faced the most batters (1286) in that span. He’s back to being a frontline horse. Maybe he doesn’t escalate his velocity inning-to-inning so that he’s pumping 97+ MPH from the seventh inning on anymore, but he still has a 94-95 MPH heater that dominates hitters up in the zone.
(The rumors regarding Verlander and the Dodgers came out after I wrote this so I’ll do one to LA in the second edition if we come up with some other pitchers to deal.)
- To WAS: Davis
- To KC: Michael Taylor and Reynaldo Lopez
The incumbent closer in Washington, Mark Melancon, will be on the market along with Chapman and Jansen so they could definitely go that way to address their bullpen, but I don’t think we can rule out them going for multiple pieces for the backend of the bullpen. One of the things we’ve heard discussed with Andrew Miller is that some of his flexibility in role comes from the fact that he has his deal already so he’s not worried about piling up saves for arbitration.
I don’t think even with a deal that Chapman will go that route, but I do wonder if Jansen or Melancon would or even Davis himself, who has only been closing for a year and won’t necessarily need more saves to drive up his value next winter. Point is, even if they sign one of the big arms, it doesn’t rule out someone like Davis as far as I’m concerned.
Davis’s 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP were his highest in three years, but that just tells you how great he’s been lately. He doesn’t come risk-free, though. He did drop 1 MPH on the fastball and dealt with a strained flexor that necessitated a DL stint, but he finished his season on the field and looked like his usual self with 15 strikeouts and just one walk in 9.7 IP during September. Plus, he costs just $10 million, less than any of the three studs is likely to per annum after their new deals.
Taylor’s star has definitely dimmed after 791 MLB plate appearances with a 71 wRC+ and a strikeout rate consistently north of 30%. At his best, he’s shown an intriguing mix of speed, power, and defense up the middle. If he can’t cut down the hole in his swing, it’s a fourth outfielder profile, but he is still just 25 (going into his age-26 season) so there’s still some chance at improvement. He can platoon with Jarrod Dyson and spot start against righties if he doesn’t make any advancements.
Lopez would actually be the prize of this deal. I listed Taylor first because he’s the more established name in the deal. Lopez is a hard-throwing righty who made his debut this past season and showed some flashes within his 44 innings. He sat 95-96 MPH and featured two worthy secondary pitches: curveball (25%) and changeup (11%). He had an above average 11% swinging strike rate as a starter, but lost some of it in the bullpen (8%). Lopez would be KC’s best pitching prospect and gives them a close-to-finished arm to develop with Matt Strahm as they sort out the back of their rotation.
—
Alright, it’s your turn. What do you think of these? If you’re against one, let me know why. Do you think the team wouldn’t deal someone or is it too much/too little? Even if I’m trading someone you love from your favorite team, try to be rational about it. I’d be pretty bummed if the Tigers traded Verlander, but I also realize that it’s the right move for them if the proper deal comes along.
One last thing: any other pitchers you think are viable trade candidates that you’d like to see me mock trade? If there are enough, I’ll run another piece with 3-5 more.
Excellent article, and it gets you to think of how the White Sox could begin the rebuilding phase with a Sale trade. Especially if they hold out for the best offer from a number of teams rich in young talent. However, I don’t see STL as a fit. It’s just not their style to make deals like this. If anything, they hold on to their young talent, sometimes almost to a fault. Sale is more likely heading to LA, Texas, or Boston, and I wouldn’t rule out the Cubs making a play, even if those teams don’t like doing business with each other.
For other SP who may be on the move, I think Julio Teheran, Ervin Santana, and Jose Quintana are all definite possibilities, as they have team friendly contracts, pitched well last season, and would bring back a decent haul of young talent. Obviously Teheran and Quintana would command the most in return, but even Santana should be able to bring back something useful for MIN
I also like the article. Everyone knows the Sox should rebuild so it is interesting to see the names out there that could be realistic. I also like how you went a different direction and said Sale to the Cards as this has not been previously mentioned by most writers (usually LAD, BOS, TEX) and I had a similar thought as well. Cards have to be steaming that Cubs won WS so they might go out of their comfort zone to knock the Cubs down. Sox might need an additional position player instead of Cooney as that is where their system is most dry. But Reyes, Grichuk and Flaherty is a good start.
I’m an O’s fan so maybe I shouldn’t comment on the proposed Taylor& Lopez deal for Davis. Still, I do watch a lot of their games b/c they’re right next to each other on the cable channel guide—same MASN network.
Taylor: lots of promise with the power, speed and defense combo. But Bernadina also showed lots of promise too and he couldn’t fix his problems at the plate either. (And what happens if the Nats decide to move Turner back to his natural SS position?)
Okay, Taylor isn’t the centerpiece of the deal; Lopez is.
I’ve seen Lopez pitch three times and his stuff is electric. Yes, he has a walk problem but that can be fixed. He was good at suppressing HRs in a year when the balls were flying out of ballparks, possibly because he’s good at inducing pop ups.
I look at the Nats rotation and after Scherzer I see a lot of question marks. Strasburg got fewer dollars than he might have if he had hit the market b/c both sides knew he was an injury risk, esp. for a second TJ surgery. That risk is still there.
Gio isn’t the pitcher he once was. Ross is talented but he spent a lot of the past season on the DL; could that be b/c of his dependency on the slider?
Roark (have him on my NL-only team) showed a nice array of pitches but he still outpitched his metrics. If anybody gets moved, I suspect it’s him—he demonstrated he can chew up innings for a team. And he’s hitting the first of his arb yrs., so he’ll cost the Nats more than Lopez.
Giolito hasn’t shown he can do it at the big league level yet and there are questions about his makeup.
Rizzo is a shrewd trader—he demonstrated that with the trade that brought Turner to D.C. And he always seems to look long term. I just can’t see him giving up a potential stud starter for a closer that might be gone after the upcoming season, especially with all of the question marks surrounding much of the starting rotation.
Seems like a buy-high situation you have there for Verlander. How often do 34 y/o’s have sustained success after 3 years of decreasing success and 2,200 innings on their bodies? Throw in his salary of $28M for the next 3 years apiece, and that its a move to the AL East and I say no thanks.
How about Quintana, Jon Gray, or Robbie Ray as targets? Or even one the Met’s extra 12 starters they seem to have.
I highly doubt the Cardinals make this kind of deal. They already have a cheap ace in Martinez, and making this deal would then require them to somehow acquire a second quality outfielder to replace Grichuk (and likely a much more expensive one). If they’re going to trade a position player from the MLB roster, then it will be an infielder like Gyorko or Peralta.
Enjoyed the article. I don’t think Taylor fits the Royals philosophy of high contact% players.
At first blush I did not buy the Verlander to the Red Sox piece since I don’t see the Sox giving up Bradley and Kopech for a 34 y.o. starter making a ton of money. But then I’m like: it’s Dombrowski.
How much cash would DET need to ship to BOS here? Maybe 1/3 of what’s owing to JV?
As a Red Sox fan, the Verlander trade seems way off base. Verlander is old, pricey, and recently ineffective. He has really taken to giving up the long ball.
I like the trade idea, but the player in return just isn’t up to snuff. Again, I know I am biased.
Kopech is super enticing and selling him before his value is truly determined seems illogical (and yes, he is just as likely to lose his value).
Recently ineffective? He’s been one of baseball’s best since mid 2015
How was he over 206 IP in ’14? The point I believe CS is making is it’s HIGHLY unlikely you are going to get something representative of prime Verlander in the remaining 3 years of his contract (age 34 – 36 seasons). I think it’s safe to assume we all agree his performance is expected to diminish each of the next 3 years. The only question is by how much. Of course there are exceptions, but pitchers typically don’t age well in their mid-30’s.
He pitched poorly through a core injury surgery. He’s been amazing since, there’s really no way around it.
I think this deal covers the idea that he’s older and expensive. Otherwise it would take a Benintendi-led package to get him. Bradley is a 27 y/o solid CF, not a total game-changer, though. Kopech has LOTS of questions, but he’s a live arm with a chance at stardom. Verlander is still a frontline arm and he requires SOMETHING in return.
I actually feel really good about the balance on this one because I’m getting feedback on both sides which usually means you’e struck the in between chord necessary where each teams hurts a little to get it done. Dombrowski being in Boston matters, too.
Verlander 3yrs @28mil per vs. Greinke 6 @ 34.4 per year, its a risk but seems like a good risk on Verlander relative to market. Not sure on Detroit side they wouldn’t want to go more prospect route, but seems fair. Detroit could always get another prospect back probably by taking…pablo. Eat up those salary dumps DET!
I considered throwing Pablo back as the cash offset. I think that’d be interesting as I’m not sure he’s done. But Casty has 3B locked up and Miggy/VMart have 1B/DH.
If they are trading Verlander then for sure Miggy and Vmart are on the table.
I doubt the White Sox would want Cooney who missed last year with shoulder surgery.
Plus I would rather accept a package for Sale from Boston of Benintendi, Kopech, and Devers (which Cameron just two days ago said he thought was light) than the St. Louis package even if Cooney didn’t have a shoulder problem.
Verlander for JBJ and Kopech+ is ridiculous. Verlander is an extreme risk to repeat his ’16 performance at his age, injury history, and lack of consistency in recent years. Further, it’s all downside. There’s almost no chance he improves from here. His dubious contract obviously significantly craters his trade value as well. Dombrowski or no Dombrowski, there’s no rational argument that can be made for a team to pay that price for Verlander. Leaving Kopech and any extras out of it, JBJ alone, who essentially matched Verlander in WAR last year in just his age 26 season is easily worth more than Verlander in today’s market.
I think you’re vastly overrating the Red Sox players here… huge surprise 🙂
Similarly, I think you’re vastly overrating what to expect from Verlander’s age 34-36 seasons. Let’s look back at ’16 for most WAR among all SPs at each respective age, Age 34: 2.9 (Wainwright); Age 35: 2.6 (CC Sabathia), Age 36: Nobody even qualified! So, let’s look at all SPs over 36: 3.1 (John Lackey at age 37). For the sake of argument let’s say Verlander is able to match the best results of any SP in ’16 at these respective ages (a huge if), that’s a total of 8.6 WAR. Meanwhile, JBJ just put up well over half that 3 year total (4.8) in his age 26 season. Further, at their ages, Verlander can only meet or miss expectations, where JBJ has a legitimate possibility of taking another step forward. Further yet, JBJ is also under control for 3 years at a small fraction of Verlander’s salary. In summary, JBJ is in all likelihood to outperform Verlander over the next 3 years, likely by a significant margin and is under control at much, much more attractive terms. The logic doesn’t add up with how you arrive at the Sox throwing in Kopech+. Yes, I happen to be an ardent Sox fan, but that doesn’t mean I can’t objectively view hypothetical trades!
Teams don’t just line up WAR to make trades, that’s not how the market works. That’s not how any of this actually works. WAR is a great tool, but it is not an end-all, be-all.
“Further, at their ages, Verlander can only meet or miss expectations, where JBJ has a legitimate possibility of taking another step forward”
This just isn’t true, either. This takes a remarkably simple view of age and applies no other factors. I understand aging curves, but you don’t just blindly adhere to them with no respect to anything else in their profiles.
If you had to choose a path for one of the Rays pitchers, what would it be? I’m thinking Odorizzi to MIA, HOU, or TEX makes the most sense.
Ummmm, both Verlander and Miggy have 10/5 no-trade rights. Any discussion that doesn’t mention that is woefully deficient. I just searched and couldn’t find anything from Verlander either way but he isn’t going anywhere he doesn’t want to go and may ask for a little something extra to make any deal go through which impacts any assessment of a potential trade
EDIT**** – actually VMart has 10/5 rights as well. All this talk about the Tigers gutting their roster needs to be run by those 3 before we actually discuss trading them,
Jbj for verlander alone would be an overpay for boston. if you use steamer projections for next year alone, they have jbj at 3 war and verlander at 4.5 war. Using 8.5 million a win puts them at values worth 25.5 million for bradley and 38.25 million for verlander. Subtract their costs (bradley entering arbitration so he’s fairly cheap, we’ll assume a few million) and we get a surplus of roughly 20 million for bradley vs a surplus of ~10 million for verlander. Add in the next few years of each of their control, factor in verlander likely decline vs bradley’s plateau stage, and you get a large indifference that puts jbj far ahead of verlander. Adding in two prospects just makes it significantly worse.
As a yankee fan, I’d do a back flip off my deck if they gave up that haul for verlander
That is not, and never has been, how the market works.
i have read numerous dave cameron articles over the years on this site based on that same concept.
And yet it doesn’t actually work that way. It’s not a bad analysis tool, but how often are deals matched up in WAR totals? There are no SP available, this enhances JV’s market. I’m open to the idea that the package I created isn’t perfect, but the idea that he’s going to cheaply is false to me.
they line up pretty close quite often. deals centered around prospects and/ or relievers are the times off the top of my head when it doesn’t work as much, probably because both tend to have large differences in perceived value.
in terms of position players and starting pitchers, both of whom have been in the league, it works.
im wondering how you arrived at the names you did for all of these deals
BTW I don’t object to dissent about the trades, my objection is just using last year’s, subtracting, and deciding if it works. It’s just not the real world of trades or why would we analyze any of them? We’d already know that the WAR were close and move on.