Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – November 10th, 2016

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! It’s November, stupid winter is coming, but we have the Hot Stove to keep us warm!!

Paul Sporer: ICYMI: this post has pics of a draft board for a league I participated in last weekend – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-402-doug-thorburn-sammy-reid/

Matt: Taillon or Aledmys in dynasty rebuild? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I really like Taillon, but when things are close, I lean toward the hitter. Diaz showed some impressive skills and I think we can believe him as a plus hitter going forward

LJ: Who’s the worst starting pitcher you would feel comfortable making your ace this year? Last year I waited until Carrasco and that didn’t pan out for me.

Paul Sporer: I took Carrasco in that draft I just referenced as my #1 and I’m happy with it. I would’ve been OK with Strasburg, Archer, and deGrom as an ace, too. They all went shortly after I took Cookie Carrasco

Dave: Please rank these P prospects: Dillon Tate, Erick Fedde, Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield

Paul Sporer: Sheffield, Fedde, Adams, and Tate

Dave: Can AJ Pollock approach his season of two years ago or is the elbow injury a concern going forward?

Paul Sporer: There’s some concern any time there’s a major injury, but I have confidence in Pollock coming back at a high level. I see him as a top-4 rounder

Alex: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. Who are two guys you think can make the leap into the first rd in ’18 (like pollack did two years ago)

Paul Sporer: Gregory Polanco has shown elements of a first round level. it would take a BABIP surge in addition to pairing his ’16 power and ’15 speed, but he has the speed and last hit the ball hard enough consistently to push something like a .330 BABIP.

It requires growth, but any answer to this question will do so or else they’d already be in the first-second round (for example, Trea Turner is too obvious an answer even with his tiny sample of work bc we saw how elite he can be)

Paul Sporer: Trevor Story is another. He’s shown SB talent better than his 8-for-13 MLB debut and he doesn’t need to even run THAT much if that 40+ HR pace we saw last year is legit (and I think it is). The real key for him becoming a 1st rounder is the AVG. Coors does a lot there and if he just cut SOME of the Ks and hit closer to .285 or so, then 40 HR/15 SB with good R/RBI is enough, especially at SS

Kyle Schwarber: What are your expectations for Schwarber next season? Full-time OF or a platoon? Will he gain C eligibility?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t BET on him to gain C, but I’d never say never — especially with Maddon. I think he’ll be a full-time OF (though he could lose late-game ABs to defensive replacement when things are relatively in hand).

TROUT2016: With 3B so deep, is Castellanos a keeper in 5×5 otto for $6?

Paul Sporer: Probably a bit on the border given the depth and the fact that he likely won’t cost too much more at auction, but if it’s not a BAD keeper by any stretch

Bregman: The pitcher I should target in an Alex Bregman trade is _______________________.

Paul Sporer: ….

Paul Sporer: that’s really difficult to answer with ZERO other context factors, but I’ll say Carrasco or maybe Aaron Sanchez

Vince: Where are you on Carlos Martinez? I think Eno said he flies open too much. Correctable?

Paul Sporer: Correctable sure, but it’s not a new issue so I’m not sure we should be super confident that he’ll just change

Paul Sporer: There’s still a lot to like even with the flaws which just speaks to his overall talent. He didn’t get much love for his ’16 which was essentially a repeat of ’15 minus some Ks

Anthony: 2017 over/under IP projection for Thor?

Paul Sporer: I think you set the number at 180. I’m not running away from him, even with the barking elbow, but I can’t put 200 IP down in ink confidently

Kloppo: How productive do you think Jose Bautista can be? Is he looking into the abyss or is he in store for some Ortiz type magic?

Paul Sporer: Discussed this with Doug and Sammy on the latest pod and we all came out pro-Bautista. There is a general ageism in fantasy baseball bc no one wants to be left holding the hot potato, but I think the price has dropped enough that not rebounding is built in. With health, he’s back at 40+ HRs.

Bobby Blownilla: Do you think Billy Hamilton takes a step forward this year? Thinking of buying him in an OBP league and need the speed

Paul Sporer: I dunno, I think he kinda took his step this year. Maybe he squeezes out a handful more hits and pushes toward .275, but I’m pretty meh on him as an empty SB guy

David: Tell me we were a year early on Correa and this is the year he blows up. (And then let’s keep it between us.) You like him or Seager more for 2017?

Paul Sporer: The thing is, he was still pretty fantastic last year. Expectations were obviously through the roof last year, but it’s not like he weighed teams down. He played through some nagging injuries, but I’m unchanged on my outlook of him as a superstar. I’m taking him ahead of Corey Seager.

Andrew: Pollock/Blackmon/S. Marte for 2017? Different for points league vs roto? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I have Blackmon first in that group unless he leaves Coors. Not sure there’s too much difference between the formats because all three are such across-the-board performers

Ben: do you see a bounce back season from Maikel Franco?

Paul Sporer: Well it was his first full season so anyone just doubling ’15 had it wrong from the jump. This is why you can’t just extrapolate small samples. I think all told it was a pretty solid season for Franco. I know his 96 OPS+ was uninspiring, but 25 HR/88 RBI on a bottom feeding team wasn’t too bad. Another great example of how Spring Training stats shouldn’t be used too heavily

Hoopster: What are your thoughts on Harvey and G Cole for 2017? Would you keep them in an NL only 5×5 league at $13 and $16?

Paul Sporer: I’m out on Harvey for now. I know I was one of his biggest supporters this year, but Thoracic Outlet Surgery has a spotty record (albeit with a relatively small sample, especially compared to TJ) so I need to see him first.

Paul Sporer: I’m more inclined to go with Cole, though 2 elbow inflammation DL stints are worrisome. We’re hearing it’ll be a normal offseason and he’ll be ready for ’17. It’s a risk, but $16 in an NL-only isn’t egregious.

Ben: pick 1 for next year: Keuchel or Stroman

Paul Sporer: Stroman

Greg: Thanks for taking the time to do this. I see you drafted Ryon Healy in the 14th round. What is his upside for 2017? Long term?

Paul Sporer: No problem! Eno has gotten me fully on the Healy train. He reminds me a bit of Piscotty, another Eno gem I adopted fully. Healy has a strong ball profile that played out in Statcast measures and points toward mid-20s HR and .280+ AVG upside.

Alex: Speaking of Bregman, what kind of player do you see him at his best? AVG, HR. Thanks man

Paul Sporer: At his best, he has .310/20 capability for sure — I could see him pushing for a batting average title or two in his career. I know .310 doesn’t AVG titles, but true talent .310s can yield a .350 in their best season with 6 months of health and some BABIP good luck

MB: Would you deal Bryant for Correa in dynasty? To be fair, I have no SS for next season and loaded at 3B

Paul Sporer: Given your situation, yes. Bryant is more of an early first rounder while Correa is toward the backend or early 2nd, but your needs make up that relatively small gap in draft stock

I’m 80 Grade: Have any fantasy sleepers or dynasty targets for 2017 yet? Were there any pitchers with down years that you think will rebound in 2017?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have many yet, though Healy would certainly qualify. Carlos Gomez and Jose Bautista as established guys who rebound on offense

Paul Sporer: (sorry y’all, Charlotte took forever outside)

Paul Sporer: Pitching wise I like betting on Garrett Richards at his cost and also up-and-comers like Jon Gray, James Paxton, Joe Ross, Brandon Finnegan.

Paul Sporer: I kinda buy Ivan Nova’s resurgence even if he’s not in PIT

fresh basil: Over/under 25 HRS for Zunino next year?

Paul Sporer: I’m so out on Zunino, but he hit 22 back when HRs weren’t so plentiful so with full PT, 25 wouldn’t be tough

McCutchen: Reasonable recovery in 2017 (accounting for steals probably being gone)? Or hot potato?

Paul Sporer: I’m in. He finished strong and even his down year wasn’t TOO bad. I’m buying at his depressed cost as I did in the 4th round of that Arizona draft last weekend

Make WAR not Love: Dahl’s K% going to depress his value long term or is his power/speed combo + coors make you salivate?

Paul Sporer: He’s better than Story in that realm and we saw what Story did. I really like Dahl this year and I’ll be drafting him regularly next spring

Dagoba: 1-10 how concerned are you about Sano’s K% ?

Paul Sporer: 10. I mean, I was fully against his draft cost last spring for that exact reason. I’m not sure why most weren’t, tbh. If it doesn’t get better, this is a more position-flexible Chris Carter. Love the obscene power, but HRs can only do so much with a .240 or below AVG

I’m 80 Grade: Is Trey Mancini worth a $1 flyer in in a mixed 14 team roto?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, he’s not for me, but I’m reluctant to fully push someone off their $1 guys. It’s no risk so if you see something, go for it, but I personally would look elsewhere

Matthew: Hopefully there’s a 2017 SP Guide on the horizon? Assuming yes, when/where should we look for it?

Paul Sporer: Actuallllllyyyyyyy……

Rich Hill: Will I see 150 IP in 2017? 2018? If not, won’t I be terribly overpaid in free agency, even on the base case?

Paul Sporer: I cannot in good conscience put him down 150, but I’m down for 100-120 REALLY good IP. May get overpaid, but if it’s a shorter term deal (1-3 yrs) then it’s unlikely to really punish the signing team

Pat: Any interest in David Peralta next year? Looked like he could be Pollock-lite but injuries made for a lost season. Still hope? Thx.

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m not fully giving up. This dude was straight raking before last year and it’s clear that health slowed him down. As long as he’s not slagging through the spring with continued health concerns, I’ll gladly take the discount and roster him this year

John: Hopefully Charlotte is the dog!

Paul Sporer: LOL, yes, Charlotte is my dog – https://www.instagram.com/char_mini/

Jeff: Know you’re a Russell fan, but are you taking him over Bogaerts next year? Am I right in thinking they are pretty close?

Paul Sporer: You’re not off in thinking they’re close and I am taking Russell over Bogy based on their costs. At same cost, I still lean Bogy

JD15: Any Cubs contract extensions in the works for the offseason?

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine so, but I haven’t read anything on any yet

Matthew: Actuallllllyyyyyy?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, it’s not going to be in its typical form this year, but I will have TONS of SP coverage here at Fangraphs

JD15: Which type of draft do you like better: snake or auction? In auction, do you prefer to spend big on a star like Trout and build around or spend more evenly?

Paul Sporer: I love both, I really do, but Auctions are better IMO. They’re just so much fun and offer more control over your team construction. Style depends on league size and setup. In a 10-12 team mixer, I’m more inclined to stack studs, but in a deeper mixer or 10-team AL/NL, I’d lean toward spreading the budget. But I don’t have a one-size for any of it

Taijuan Walker: Back end 2/high 3? Or another year of teasing with no happy ending?

Paul Sporer: i still have hope for his upside. He’s only 24. I know plenty have moved off him, but that just means more for us. He might not reach full upside this year, but I see more mixed league viability in ’17

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, these offseason ones are going to be a bit tighter on time, at least until the signing and trade news really starts to flow in so we’re going to end this one here. I’ll have a piece on some trade potentials up soon, too!