Three Hitters I’m Eager to See at the AFL

The end of the MLB season is one of the worst parts of the year. I annually lessen the pain of this by journeying out to First Pitch Arizona for my last fill of baseball before long, stupid winter. Not only are we watching baseball, but it’s centered around a fantasy baseball conference with some of the best people in the industry… and me. I’m leaving Thursday morning so I’ll be there in time for one of the afternoon games which means with the three attendee games already on the docket, I’ll see a total of four regular games in addition to the Fall Stars Game on Saturday night.

My favorite aspect of the Fall League is learning about guys I’m not too familiar with just yet. Don’t get me wrong, it’s awesome seeing the Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of the prospect world. But for someone who doesn’t dedicate a ton of time to prospects (especially lower level ones), it’s a great opportunity to see some of the next level guys in living color. Keep in mind that any time I say I “discovered” someone at the AFL whether on the pod or in a piece, I mean for myself, not that I was on this guy ahead of everyone else.

For example, Baseball Prospectus ranked Nolan Arenado 20th ahead of the 2011 season, but I knew next-to-nothing about the 20-year old going into his High-A season. Watching obliterate the Fall League later that year put him on my radar. He was so good. I didn’t see a single bad at-bat from him in the handful of games, even the outs. Better examples would be Brian Dozier and Mookie Betts.

Neither were on prospect lists in advance of their AFL season so seeing them excel actually gave me a jump in my fantasy leagues. Don’t get me wrong, not everyone I fall for out there winds up being a stud. I loved what I saw out of Chris Heisey, Grant Desme, and Dustin Ackley to name a few. Two are fourth outfielders and the other – Desme – quit baseball to become a priest. You win some, you lose some.

One guaranteed win is watching baseball in Arizona in early November when most of the country is whipping out their jackets. (I mean, I take my jacket to Arizona because that shiz gets really cold at night! But during the day it’s sunny and awesome.)

I’ve got a shortlist of guys I’m looking forward to seeing out there this week and I should get a chance to see them all, even if it’s only at the Fall Stars game:

Gleyber Torres – NYY – SS

The key piece of the Aroldis Chapman is lighting up the league so far with a 1.077 OPS in 32 AB, good for 4th in the league. Before we go any further, I’ll note that the AFL is a hitting league due to not only the environment and ballparks, but also the talent distribution. There are often many more top hitting prospects than pitching ones. Pitchers have usually bumped up against the inning caps by season’s end so we don’t always get the cream of the crop.

Hitter’s league or not, it’s notable that Torres is raking because he’s just 19! In fact, that’s the same reason that you have to be careful if you’re boxscore scouting him. His .775 OPS put up across the Carolina and Florida leagues with the Cubs and Yankees doesn’t really stand out until we realize he was tied with a few others as the youngest player in both leagues.

Torres is not a huge power or speed threat, but a bit of both at shortstop is enough to be a fantasy asset, especially if his hit tool develops as expected. Eric Longenhagen points out how he’s kind of walking a line where if he fills out to add power, he could be moved off shortstop. Despite 50 or 55 grades on his speed (depending on the outlet), he has a meager 61% success rate in 87 attempts. Of course, speed isn’t just stolen bases, but baserunning at large and maybe he’s just better at the other aspects of it like going first-to-third.


Tyler O’Neill – SEA – OF

O’Neill is in his second tour of the AFL, but he left early because he only played eight games and none after Halloween so I didn’t see him. He burst onto the scene last year with a 32-homer season, but hype over it was curbed by the Cal League environment in which he did it. The league at large is very hitter-friendly and his home park in Bakersfield (RIP) is big reason why with a 142 HR park factor for righties.

He showed it wasn’t just the league pumping him up with another 24 homers in the Southern League, posting a .517 SLG in the power-neutral park for Jackson. Power is definitely the carrying tool here, but he does sell it out (26% K rate this year; 29% career) and any report you read on him notes the trigger-happy approach. He is among the group of six players tied for the AFL homer lead at 3 (Torres in there, too).


Greg Allen – CLE – OF

Hey, look at that, Allen is also in the cluster of home run leaders! No, I didn’t just sort by homers and pick a few names. Torres is just one of the best out guys out there so he’s intriguing, O’Neill has plus power which can accelerate a timetable, and Allen appealed to me because he could be contributing next year in Cleveland. Their outfield is a bit up in the air after this season.

Tyler Naquin had a surprise season that was instrumental in their success, but he’s hardly an immovable object. We don’t know how healthy Michael Brantley will be by the time Spring Training rolls around. Brandon Guyer is a versus lefties-only guy and that’s pretty much all they have right now.

Coco Crisp and Rajai Davis are both free agents and a million years old, Clint Frazier was dealt, and we’re done pretending Abraham Almonte might be something, right? So that leaves Bradley Zimmer (also at the AFL) and Allen. Zimmer is ahead of Allen in every possible way, but he’s also a known commodity to a degree as a 2014 first-rounder so I’m eager to see what’s up with the sixth-rounder from that year, coming off of a solid two-level season.

I’ve actually been somewhat aware of Allen throughout the season because of Carson Ci-freakin-stulli’s Fringe Five series, in which Allen has been a staple. Allen is a switch-hitter with strong contact (11% career K), discipline (11% BB), speed (121 SBs, 78% success), and defense (you’ll have to my secondhand word for it as I only know that through reading reports) who has continued his great season in Arizona with a .366/.435/.683 line in 41 AB.

In this report, Longenhagen tabbed him with a 30 raw power, but it was before Allen’s promotion to Double-A where he put up a career-best .151 ISO in 174 PA, not to mention the .317 we’ve seen so far in Arizona. If I get a chance to talk to him, I’m going to ask if he’s seen anything different in Allen’s swing that supports the power boost. Zimmer may arrive ahead of Allen, but both could be contributing to the club at some point next year, even if Brantley comes back.

I’m not a scout, we all know that. But I’ll still give you my thoughts on these guys and others when I get back from my trip, either in pod form or in another article, or maybe both if I’m feeling froggy.

 





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Nelson S.
7 years ago

Wheres Chisenhall going next year?