Author Archive: Paul Sporer

I’m not sure we think about first round picks properly in fantasy baseball. I think too often we worry too much about if the player selected will “return first round value” which means being a top 10, 12, 15 player (or however many teams are in the league, of course). The BaseballHQ Forecaster reviews first round picks every year and compares them to those who finished as first rounders by dollar value and it shows we are terrible at actually picking first rounders in the first round. Their look at the last 12 years showed a 34% success rate.

I look for more of a balance between upside and floor with my first round pick. Make no mistake, we’re talking very high floors here. I’m not going to take Kyle Seager in the first round just because he has established a strong floor of quality play, but I’m careful not to overvalue nebulous upside while eschewing a “boring” pick just because I have a reasonable idea of what to expect from him. It’s not so much “will this guy blossom into a first round stud”, but more “will he be a centerpiece asset (top 35 or so) with a reasonable shot at first round production” which brings us to Miguel Cabrera.

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10/27/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Leading Off: Question of the Day

• Should Kyle Schwarber play the field? (9:20)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Yoenis Cespedes opting out (19:30)
• Wilson Ramos looking for 4-5 years (30:30)
• James Shields opting in (33:30)
• Christian Bethancourt shifting to pitching (40:30)
• John Lamb DFA’d (45:30)

Strategy Section: World Series Chatter

• CHC gets split in CLE (50:40)
• Front-door sinkers (52:00)
• CLE going 3-man rotation (56:00)

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Chat transcript found below! Join us next week for my first offseason chat!!

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Relievers are having a moment. It’s been slowly building for a while, but this year might be the crescendo. Zach Britton foolishly being left out of the wildcard game paired with Cleveland’s excellent deployment of Andrew Miller seems to have ignited something of a reliever revolution. Their importance – especially in the playoffs – has never been questioned, but the prevalence of lockdown relievers throughout many bullpens has changed their value in fantasy leagues, too.

Saves still run the show, but many leagues have incorporated holds as a way of adding value to studly middle relievers and some are just so good that it doesn’t matter if they’re getting saves. Eight relievers logged 100+ strikeouts and only Kenley Jansen was a full-time closer. Seung Hwan Oh had 19, Ken Giles had 15, both Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller had 12, while Kyle Barraclough and Brad Hand combined for one (it was Hand’s).

Today, I have five high upside relievers who could be closing in 2017 or be so good that they’re useful enough without saves. They are listed in order of likeliness to close:

Adam Ottavino

OK, we’re cheating right out of the gate a little bit. Ottavino was just starting to close for Colorado when he was felled by Tommy John surgery in 2015 and he reassumed the role in September of this season after a couple months in a setup role. He finished with the role and will likely start with it again in 2017 while the others on this list will likely need to leapfrog a guy or three to get there.

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10/23/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Leading Off: Question of the Day

• In your opinion, is CLE’s layoff a factor?
  • Layoffs over last 10 years

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Tale of the Tape

• SP
• RP
• Hitting/Bench
• Picks

Stat of the Day: Cubs allowed the 4th-most SBs with just a 22% CS rate (lg. avg. is 29%)

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Wrapping up my position-by-position look at the 2016 power surge, we hit third base and outfield today. If you missed the first two pieces, here are the catcher/first base and second base/shortstop ones.

THIRD BASE

The hot corner didn’t set any records with its power output in 2016, but the 17 hitters who popped at least 20 homers tied for the third highest ever. The previous highs had a Giants-like even year pattern with 2004 (17), 2006 (21), and 2008 (18) being the other three seasons with at least 17 hitters achieving the feat. Homers have been on the rise at third base the last three years with just eight reaching 20+ HR in 2014 and then 15 last year.

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Chat transcript can be found below!

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IF YOU DOWNLOADED BEFORE 7:10 PM CENTRAL, THE AUDIO WAS MESSED UP FOR MY END. IT’S BEEN FIXED AND RE-UPLOADED.

10/19/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Leading Off: Question of the Day

• Does Julio Urias balk with his pickoff move?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Jake Arrieta: 5.82 ERA in 4 starts since last yr’s WC
• Cubs aren’t hitting, are they dead? .185 AVG, .577 OPS
• Should Andrew Toles being playing every day over Howie Kendrick?

Strategy Section: Looking Ahead on Playoff Players

• Justin Turner draft slot in ‘17?
• Marcus Stroman up to 215 IP from 46 last year
• Best TOR SP in ‘17? Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada or J.A. Happ
• Tyler Naquin ‘17 power output?

Stat of the Day: Urias led MLB w/6 pickoffs in just 77 IP (Johnny Cueto 2nd w/5 in 219.7 IP)

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10/16/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• David Price crushed again in playoffs
• Josh Tomlin steps up
• Aaron Sanchez allows 6 ER in 5.7 IP, but only 3 H – ‘17 outlook?
• Does TOR keep one, none, or both of Edwin Encarnacion & Jose Bautista?
• Bautista crying foul?
• Saturday late-innings

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Earlier this week, I broke down the home run surge at catcher and first base, highlighting those who hit at least 20 homers and identifying some who could do the same in 2017. Today, I’ll be looking at second base and shortstop.

SECOND BASE

The keystone arguably experienced the most growth out of the power surge with an all-time high 15 players hitting at least 20 homers while qualifying at the positon. The previous high was 10 set in 2009 and if you add up the last four years combined, you only get 12. Yes, second base was where you could make power deficiencies from Giancarlo Stanton’s injury or Bryce Harper’s underperformance. It was kinda nuts. Here’s who did it:

Brian Dozier 42, Robinson Cano 39, Rougned Odor 33, Jedd Gyorko 30, Ian Kinsler 28, Daniel Murphy 25, Jonathan Schoop 25, Jose Altuve 24, Jason Kipnis 23, Neil Walker 23, Matt Carpenter 21, Starlin Castro 21, Jean Segura 20, Logan Forsythe 20, and Ryan Schimpf 20

Dozier and Cano were the only two to accomplish the feat last year. The last time more than four players hit 20+ HR at second base was 2011 when eight got it done. It’s not just that so many hit 20+, it’s that four were at 30+ and the aforementioned Dozier and Cano were 35+. The last time two second basemen went for 35+ in a season was 2003 when Bret Boone and Alfonso Soriano achieved the feat. Soriano was joined by Jeff Kent the year before, too.

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