Top 15 First Basemen for 2017 – First Run

Last month, I put up my early pitcher rankings and I’m going to go position-by-position along with Brad’s “Way Too Early” series starting with first basemen. I’ll circle back to catchers at the end since he already did his two weeks ago. I usually put my initial lists together in preparation for my trip to First Pitch Arizona coming up later this week where I compete in the first half of a 50-round draft and hold NFBC league. Jason and I will actually be doing a live episode of the podcast at the same time of the draft this year so I won’t be able to participate, but I’ll share my first run of rankings instead.

(I’m including a couple DHs because there aren’t enough DH-only guys for their own set of rankings unlike 2016)

Paul Goldschmidt | Diamondbacks – He’s still the best of the bunch as one of the few 5-category first basemen in the game. His career-high 32 SBs this year gave him his fourth season of at least 15 SBs in the last five. It likely would’ve been 5-for-5 had he not missed the last two months of 2014 with injury. Goldy was hitting .223 through the first 40 games of this season, but no one seemed to bat an eye as it was tied to an uncharacteristically low BABIP of just .258, nearly 100 points lower than his .356 career mark.

He hit .320 the rest of the way en route to an excellent season. If I was going to nitpick one facet, it would be his 24 HRs in a year when homers went wild, but a career-worst 29% flyball rate and a career-high 14% infield flyball rate undoubtedly played a role. Those are so far out of the norm (34%, 7% career FB and IFFB rates) that seem more like a blip than a problem. It speaks to his ability that they didn’t keep him from a great season at all.

Miguel Cabrera | Tigers – I outlined my thoughts on Miggy here and instead of repeating points from that piece, I’ll just direct you there. Yes, he’s older (34 next year), but the rock solid skillset is so reliable.

Joey Votto | Reds – He hasn’t topped 30 HRs in either of the last two seasons, but that hasn’t stopped him from being the #2 rated 1B on ESPN’s Player Rater in both seasons. His 58 HRs are still sixth at the position (min. 800 PA). He excels in the underrated categories: runs and batting average. His .320 AVG is second to only Cabrera while his 196 runs trail only Goldy (209) and Chris Davis (199).

Anthony Rizzo | Cubs – I kinda laid out my thoughts on Rizzo in that Cabrera piece, too. I was making the case that I prefer Cabrera, but I obviously still value Rizzo very highly. In fact, all of the top four have a great case to be in any first round.

Edwin Encarnacion | Free Agent – We don’t know where Encarnacion will wind up, but I’m really buying in on the idea that he goes to Boston as Big Papi’s replacement. Obviously, this is mostly speculation save that one time Ortiz casually suggested the Red Sox get the Blue Jays slugger. I feel confident he’ll find a home in the American League somewhere and I kinda feel like he might stay in Toronto if he doesn’t go to Boston and then they let Jose Bautista go (both are free agents). A wildcard destination could change the ranking, but his power plays everywhere.

Freddie Freeman | Braves – He’s 7th in runs and 11th in HRs the last two years despite playing only 118 games in 2015. His .292 AVG is tied with Jose Abreu for third. I always view him as sort of a Votto-lite. And not even that lite. Their numbers over the last two seasons aren’t that far off despite Votto getting 40 more games played. I could see the Braves building on their strong second half and coming out with a more capable offense from the start of 2017 which could put Freeman in line for his first 100-100 run/RBI season ever.

Jose Abreu | White Sox – It looks like a second half rally saved his season when you look at the .756/.898 split, but he actually spiked in June after a .686 through May, but then a power outage in July pushed him back down before a great finish (.969 in Aug-Sept). On the whole, it doesn’t look all that different from his first two seasons except for another dip in HR/FB rate (career-low 15%; career 20%) as he didn’t hit the ball as hard.

We’re talking marginal differences here, though, so while it looks like a trend, I’m not certain that is one you can bet on. His Hard% has gone from 36% to 33% over the last three seasons, but his HR/FB rate has taken the real hit going from 27% to that 15% I mentioned earlier. This could end up being an early round buy candidate – which is just another way to say sleeper. But I have a hard time tabbing anyone in the single digit rounds as a sleeper so I’m just trying to convey that he will cost less than he likely should this year.

Hanley Ramirez | Red Sox – I think we forgot about not falling prey to recency bias pretty much every single year. Ramirez had an ugly .717 OPS in his Red Sox debut and even with a clear reason behind it (running into the wall in Fenway), there were still plenty of folks ready to write him off as an offensive force. Fantasy baseball’s ageism issue certainly played a role for the 32-year old, too.

He got off to a slow start with just a .686 OPS in April, but he clubbed a .901 the rest of the way while trading some strikeouts for some patience and recapturing his power. There’s some risk for a 33-year old with his injury history, but I don’t think the market will overvalue him even after the big season.

Wil Myers | Padres – This ranking might feel low after such an incredible season: 28 HR, 28 SB, 99 R, and 94 RBI, but how bankable are those stolen bases? I really don’t know. I’m going to bet on him again in 2017 with at least a couple shares, but I’m not going to pencil in more than 15-18 SBs when I’m assessing my projections during a draft. Of course, it’s all going to come down to health with Myers.

His wrist has been a consistent issue which doesn’t affect his ability to run, but sliding headfirst into second does put the wrist at risk. While a big chunk of his production came in June when he posted an 1.194 OPS with 11 HR and 5 SB, he put up 17/23 in the other five months combined. Don’t forget, he was a superstar prospect and he showed why in 2016.

Eric Hosmer| Royals – We’re really seeing that power develop with his two best HR/FB rates the last two seasons helping him mold into a true middle-of-the-order threat. With that, he’s slowed down some: 38-for-48 in his first three years; 16-for-24 in the last three years. As the KC offense has evolved, his R/RBI numbers have surged, too, including a career-high 104 RBI this year. If there’s a gripe about this season, it’s the .266 AVG. He gave back the line drive gains from 2015 and it all went into groundballs which can yield hits, but his .301 BABIP was second-worst of his career. I think he still has a profile that can yield .280+ with 20+ HR.

EDIT AFTER PUBLISHING: I sold Santana short. He should definitely be in the top 15. I’m in Phoenix for Arizona Fall League so I can’t do a full edit to slide him in, but there’s some excellent analysis on him from the comments section and I fully agree that I missed him. 

The Next Five:

Brandon Belt (SF), Chris Davis (BAL), Victor Martinez (DET), Kendrys Morales (KC), and Albert Pujols (LAA)

If you remove the two DHs (V-Mart and K-Mo), then Chris Carter and Adrian Gonzalez would slide in.