Author Archive: Paul Sporer

In its base form, Wins are part of our game even as their frequency drops and annoyance with them continues to surge. I don’t mind them despite their variant nature. They do create a lot of outliers when judging fantasy value, though, and because they aren’t bankable as a skill, that can be misleading. This is why it can be dangerous to use Player Raters as value meters. Someone with a bucket of Wins can skyrocket up the Rater and look better than his actual skills. Conversely, a hard-luck loser with great skills gets overlooked if they have too few wins. Today we’re going to remove Wins from the equation and see if we can learn anything from who jumps into the Top 50.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings. (Yellow added after original post)

• It’s Miz, Skenes, and Wheeler day — Rejoice!! Unfortunately, they all have evening games so there will be some overlap, but the start times are a little staggered with Skenes first at 5:40pm CT, 6:10 for Wheels, and 6:45 for Miz so you get a clean half an hour with Skenes before Wheels even starts. If you trying to split your time and catch some of all three, you can watch Skenes’s first few IP before jumping over. Skenes used to take precedent over any non-Skubal start for me, but Miz has ascended into that spot so come 6:45, CHC-MIL gets the big screen, even over my Tigers. 🙈
• Ginn, Arrighetti, and Martinez are the interlopers of the 3-x world thanks to matchups, venues, and/or recent performance. Ginn has become a firm home/road sit/start guy for me: 4.29 ERA/1.62 WHIP at home | 1.99/.79 on the road. Arrighetti and Martinez are toting mid-5.00s ERAs over the L30 days but both have solid full season records and get to face sputtering offenses.
• From there, the board gets really sketchy. I don’t feel great about starting any of the 2-x’ers and below. I’m taking a shot on McDonald despite his recent struggles because he’s catching ATL at the best possible time as they sit dead last in wOBA vR over the last month as regression and injuries catch up to them. Pair that with SFG’s offense hitting a lot better of late and putting a potential W in play if McDonald can put up a solid 5.
• Ureña still has that sharp ERA/WHIP split (2.41/1.31) that suggests the former will be headed upward sooner than later, but we’ll take a shot against a road ATH team that is top 10 vR in the aggregate, but sits 18th against ’em on the road.
• Castillo blew Miller’s gem last time out when they were in the starter-follower setup but his four outings before that were solid: 1.79 ERA/1.00 WHIP/13% K-BB in 20.3 IP. I only say “solid” despite the beautiful ratios because the K-BB is still pretty modest, suggesting there’s some run-hot here. But even if you tack the 4 unearned runs back onto his ledger, it’s still a palatable 3.58 ERA in this span. The clincher is the matchup, though. Our start thresholds against the J-Ram-less Guardians are wiiide open!
• We’re at the point of the season where COL has built enough good numbers at home to push their full season rankings way up so don’t immediately get deterred by their 4th highest wOBA vR. They’re tied for 1st at home with TBR (that’s interesting!) with a .353 wOBA that drops to .313 (16th) on the road. That doesn’t mean Bradley and his 6.93 ERA/1.62 WHIP over the last month is an auto start, just that the matchup isn’t as scary as it seems on the surface. 
• My interest Cantillo is purely matchup related as SEA is dead last vL on the year and 25th over the L30 days.
• Abbott is another pure matchup play. PIT has a night-day vR/vL split, sitting 23rd in wOBA vL with a 27% K rate that is tied for highest with COL. Abbott also hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since April 24th, posting a 2.41 ERA in his L10 starts. But the modest 1.23 WHIP and outright bad 8% K-BB don’t give the ERA a lot of credence, yet he keeps getting it done. I’d have no problem sitting in a tougher matchup even w/the hot ERA run, but PIT v. a southpaw is tough to pass.
• I originally gave Corbin 1-x, but took it off about 20 minutes after posting. TEX isn’t a scary matchup, but Corbin has completely pumpkin’d after a fast start (6.64 ERA/1.82 WHIP/5% K-BB in L30).  

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6/25/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Justin Mason | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host/Producer
• Joe Orrico | Twitter | Bluesky – Co-Host

YOUTUBE

• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

JUNE SWOONS

• Jarren Duran 7 wRC+ – 2:00
• Salvador Perez 26 – 8:02
• Xavier Edwards 46 – 15:05
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 54 – 19:03

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings. (Yellow added after original post)

• Cam/Sanchez Day is fun! I wish one had a day game instead of playing around the same time because I love dialing in on both this year. Sanchez draws the spunky Nats so slots 3rd among the aces.
• I thought Seattle was moving the Opener/Follower around the rotation but it Miller/Castillo doing it again. Last time I listed Castillo since I usually list Followers but their OP/FW setups aren’t like normal. Miller isn’t necessarily going to be limited on the front end. Last game, he was brilliant for 5 but Castillo had a really rough 4 behind him. Woo! (not Bryan, but rather an exclamation of celebration!) I was right that they are moving the OP/FW around. Miller and Castillo get traditional starts today & tomorrow with Gilbert/Hancock running the double dip setup on Saturday. Nothing changes for our purposes today as we were starting Miller even against the tough Pirates, but maybe now he’ll be allowed to go 6-7 IP if he’s rolling. Ty to commenter TheBabbo!
• Early has found a better strikeout groove of late. After reaching 6 Ks just once in his first 7 starts, he’s hit the mark in 6 of his L8 with his composite K% going from 20% to 24% in that time.
• Melton has quite hit his K% peak, but he’s also gotten better of late. After just 4 Ks in his first 2 starts (12.7 IP), he has 5 in each of his L3 though he’s still only at 20% during that time, amassing 19 IP of 3.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with the improved K output. The results have made it easy to stick with him and I still feel there’s more in the tank skillswise.

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Thanks for coming out.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Joe Ryan out sick

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

• Mannn, I don’t know with Bradish. His last outing was excellent (7.7 IP/1 ER/12 Ks) after back-to-back Duds. That sort of volatility also explains the Angels offense. They’re just 22nd on the season in wOBA vR, but they have the 2nd-most 10+ R gms (9) and the 2nd-most <=3 R gms (41)!
• Some really good matchups for the streamers (Woodruff, Kay, Holmes, and Rocker) and that is no doubt the driving force behind their recos. Woodruff is coming off the IL and could be limited while the others have all looked pretty bad in the last month.
• Kelly had a nice QS before catching the upside wrath of LAA (5.3 IP/6 ER). WAS also dropped 7 ER on him but he ran off a 2.36 ERA in 5 starts before that. Super wide range of outcomes.
• If you want a glimmer of a hope on King, he is catching ATL at the best time as they sit dead last in wOBA vR over the last month. LAD comes visiting on the weekend, though, so this is still a rough 2-step.
• Speaking of LAD, they are getting some good numbers out of Lauer with a 3.22 ERA/1.03 WHIP over the last month. Unfortunately, it’s only netted 1 W despite going at least 5 IP in 4 of his L5.

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6/19/26

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow Our Socials

• Paul Sporer | Twitter | Bluesky – Host
• Jason Collette | Bluesky | Linktree – Co-Host

2-START PITCHERS FOR WK13 (June 19th)

(Note: Timestamps are approximations because they are based on the straight record meaning the intro music will push ’em back a bit. This is my first time uploading an episode in a million years so just wanted to point out that I didn’t re-do them after putting the intro. -Paul)

• AUTO-START: Hunter Brown, Drew Rasmussen, Gavin Williams, Jesús Luzardo, Shane McClanahan, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Nolan McLean, Ryan Weathers, Sonny Gray
• Kyle Bradish BAL – @ LAA (22 wOBA rank), vs WSH (13) ~7:00
• Trey Yesavage TOR – vs HOU (15), vs TEX (20) 9:36
• Carlos Rodón NYY – @ DET (17), @ BOS (8) 13:40
• Michael King SD – vs ATL (5), vs LAD (1) 15:40
• Casey Mize DET – vs NYY (6), vs HOU (15) 18:40

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• Daily SP Chart archive
• 2-Start podcast episode
• SP Rankings (last update: 6/5 | next: July)

Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.

Comments in yellow added Fri AM

• Soriano is in for LAA, not Caden Dana. I’d consider him in between Sasaki & Cavalli.
• A devastating 5th inning v. CHW fueled by 3 BB brought Sasaki back down to Earth with 7 ER. But he allowed 7 ER in his previous 5 starts combined, posting a 2.16 ERA/0.86 WHIP/25% K-BB, so I’m inclined to give him a pass for a tough inning against a good young team and run him back out there without fear today.  
• Cavalli is a WHIP risk but has been running well of late (3.86 ERA/1.14 WHIP/19% K-BB in L5) and catches TBR at a good time with them sitting just 22nd vR in the L14 days.
• Meanwhile Suarez gets SEA an upswing as they’ve surge to 10th in the L14 days but he’s also back on track after a hiccup, including 13 Ks in 11.3 IP.
• Roupp is a big get for those who got him off the wire and he could be a big get in this start at a MIA team that doesn’t hit righties very well.
• Vásquez has gone full pumpkin and should be relegated back to streamer status. After a 16% K-BB in his first 8 starts – that included a 12% SwStr, nearly 2x his 2025 mark (7%) – he’d earned some trust, but he’s down to just 5% K-BB in his L6 with a 7% SwStr. And with that ringing endorsement… let’s start him at TEX!
• Tough to see Imai give back all the good of his 4-start run with one of the worst starts of the years: 5 runs on 4 H and 1 BB in just two outs of work. And yet I think we saddle back up here against the J-Ram-less Guardians.
• SEA is going to run Miller/Castillo but I’m not sure of the IP expectation. Miller is coming off an excellent 8-IP gem at WAS (7 Ks, 0 BB) while 3 UER helped Castillo survive his trip to DC.

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