Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – June 24th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out! Gotta run a pretty tight hour today, so let’s dive right in!

Jon Tayler: Hola Paul, I traded Gelof for Adell in an OBP roto league (5 OF, MI/CI/IF); how’d I do?

Paul Sporer: Obviously this would’ve been a resounding win if Gelof was severely injured, though I trust that’s not why you were dealing him. So assuming the good news of no break in his wrist holds and he’s healthy, this is a very fair deal IMO. As long as you don’t need Gelof’s SBs and OF is a bigger need than INF, this lines up just fine as a deal!

MD: Next week: Warren vs DET or Webb @COL?

Paul Sporer: Coors always a little scary even for studs, but slamdunk Webb for me here. He’s dealing and appears back on track which makes him matchup proof again

MD: 12 tm roto dynasty (OBP & TB). I’m tied for first, constantly flip flopping with #2. I need SBs badly. Is it too much to trade a Bubba Chandler in the minors for a rental Arozarena? I feel Arozarena having a career year at 31 is a bit scary. I’m trying to talk him into Hagen Smith instead

Paul Sporer: I’m good to run w/this if you can get ’em to move to Hagen Smith. Bubba has some real nice upside and you might lament this for 2027 and beyond, but if you win it this year, who cares! I’m all for pushing chips in when a title is in sight. Plus, it’s not like your totally mortgaging your future. Chandler is far from a sure thing. I happen think he’ll eventually figure the control out a bit and become a solid #3 or better but there’s a real risk he never figures that piece out and ends up a reliever or backend SP

AU86: Paul – 13 team mixed redraft using QS and K/9.  Sproat was dynamic last night.  Take a shot on him?  Would you dropping either Lugo or Manaea?  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: He was unreal!! I had some hype for Sproat coming into the year that he has definitely fell short on, but I’m willing to take a shot on him next week w/a 2-step v. CIN & at ARI over a 1-start Lugo. Even with Sproat’s struggles this year, he still has a better WHIP than Lugo despite their big ERA disparity.

NicklePickers: Roman Anthony still not ready to hit. O/U at bats ROS?

Paul Sporer: I think it was you or someone else who comped Boston to Houston on the injury front lately and that makes sense. We already know not to trust team/player timelines blindly, but HOU and now BOS are on another level of distrust bc we get rosy outlooks that come nowhere near reality. Maye a buck-50 to 200 PA left for him?

JoeG414: Time to move on from Austin Riley ? 12T Yahoo Roto.  I’ve been using him as a backup for Muncy – LAD.     Available are M.Shaw , M.Dubon, Blaze Alex, Blaze Jordan.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, a June Swoon (.626 OPS) off an already bad start is brutal (entered June at .648). Might go w/Shaw, he’s been better of late

MD: How do you feel about Durbin? Bregman has been tearing me down and I need a 3B replacement while I wait for his 2nd half resurgence (hey, I can hope). Durbin had 41 wRC+ in May, but 148 in June. The league is OBP and TB instead of AVG and HR is that helps.

Paul Sporer: Even as a Durbin disbeliever, I knew he wasn’t 41 wRC+ bad but I’m not sure he’s muuuch better than the 72 composite mark he has now. maybe more of an 80-90 range wRC+ guy but that’s not all that different than 72 for fantasy purposes. It just felt like MIL sold high on Durbin and Isaac Collins knowing they peak or near-peak seasons out of ’em last year.

I truly don’t think we needed hindsight to call that one, either. Modest skill profiles for mid-20s-somethings, just didn’t see where either would get better. I understand your frustration with Bregman, just not sure Durbin is the answer outside of maybe keepin the hot streak goin a bit longer (though today is their last gm in Coors)

clydethedog: after hot starts, it seems as though Nico Hoerner and Sal Stewart are coming back to earth. Is this the new normal or will they rebound?

Paul Sporer: Nico exploded for 4 HRs in April which was never going to hold as any sort of pace, but a .207 BABIP since May 1st has him hitting .196 over his last 200 PA. That seems crazy unlucky. I checked to see if he got flyball happy after his 4 April bombs and he’s actually down 9 pts to 31% FB. Also down 7 pts in Line Drive rate since May 1st at just 20% which hurts, too, though a speedy guy usually has the best chance to turn groundballs into hits, his just aren’t goin.

Like Steven Kwan, I just don’t see that Nico is deserving this huge AVG dip and should regress back to normal and possibly go on a big AVG binge eventually. The tough part with both is they offer so little outside of the AVG that they are tough holds during runs like this.

Paul Sporer: Was doing a lot of research on these, hence the long lead time… Sal analysis incoming now –

Paul Sporer: (Yellow text added after the chat as I felt I left this a little open-ended on Stew) Stewart seems to be suffering from the power version of this – where he went off in April with a 9 HR performance, fueled by a healthy-but-not-totally-unsustainable 24% HR/FB rate. For context, 9 qualified hitters held a 24%+ rate last year, so it’s cream of the crop but not crazy outlier. Consider he also ran a 30% rate in his brief 2025 call-up so I could see if people were maybe thinking that he could be one of these high end HR/FBers.

But that’s why we can’t make sweeping judgments on 50 games of work. He’s all the way down to 11% since May 1st with his Hard-Hit and Barrel rates down significantly as well. 11-12% is league average so it’s not some crazy unlucky mark. Still got 5 HR/4 SB in since May 1st (17/14 full season pace — so basically 2025 Ozzie Albies as a downside), so not killing teams even w/the paltry .223 AVG included. I still think he’s a full on fantasy stud, just maybe not the 1st rounder we were dreaming on after April. The speed dynamic means he doesn’t have to be a 25% HR/FB guy to deliver value. 

vesh1269: Would you drop Michael Busch for N.Nunez? I also could drop Steer, but I ‘m not sure needing a backup SS is worth dropping either.

Paul Sporer: That’s a pure power-for-speed question. If you can use SBs more in your standings, I’m OK w/it!

DaveKass: I have Logan Henderson coming back soon. Going to have to drop a SP (Or Logan, poor guy). Lodollo, McLanahan or Foster Griffin? Maybe just rank those bad boys? Lodollo finally looked like himself last night.. Before taking a ball off his wrist.. Or am I just toast for the back end of my rotation in a 10 team 5×5.

Paul Sporer: I think you’ll want to line up upcoming schedules for the group. Shano is a lock keep for me. So then Lodolo/Griffin/Logan. I had Lodolo as a Usually Start in the latest rankings with Griffin in Team Streamer and Henderson unranked w/injury but I see him as a Team Streamer. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2026-fantasy-rankings-u… — Lodolo has subsequently been downgraded to Team Streamer himself after his June performance and my confidence waning in him a bit, so I have the 3 on relatively even ground before diving into the matchups. Factoring in team, Henderson has a huge edge and then Griffin a bit over Lodolo for me. From there, see if anyone has a particularly difficult schedule to drive the choice.

Paul Sporer: Looks like Logan Henderson is further out than I thought when first reading this Q as All-Star break seems like the target. So you get to see Lodolo’s 2-step next week and see if he can build on yesterday’s start to rebuild our confidence in him. Of course, that would only complicate matters for you, but it’s good to have “too much” pitching

viceroy: Hey Paul, do you see another gear for Torkelson? Why are his BABIPs so low? Is he doomed by his park or can changes to the ball save him?

Paul Sporer: It comes down to his heavy flyball approach. Flyballs aren’t conducive to AVG and he’s a firm 51% FB guy the last 3 yrs. He’s selling out for power and aiming to be more of a three true outcomes kind of guy (would love better than his 11% BB all things considered). This approach w/tons of FBs and deep-count focus that will also yield Ks lives around a .200-.240 AVG window and basically requires 30 HRs to be a good player. He’s a bit shy of that pace at 24 per 600 PA right now, but in the words of the immortal Dennis Green and paraphrased a bit – he is who we thought he was

Salty: Is the Twins lineup sneaky good?  With summer heating up in Minn, Clemens usually pops on many FA pickup lists, Culpepper maybe coming soon, and Jenkins too?

Paul Sporer: Yeah it’s more than just Buxton now that Royce is back and looking healthy (for now, at least). Larnach brings pop. As do Clemens and Bell (who’s been on a heater of late). Brooks Lee with a sneaky 13 HRs. Jeffers has been UNREAL and should be back soon. They remind me of the Angels a bit where they don’t outwardly scare you when deciding to stream v. them and you can definitely get ’em for a great outing, but when they’re dialed in, they can smoke anyone. They’re scoring 5.3 R/G this month…….. only problem is they’re allowing 5.9!

JoeG414: Salvy Perez or Joe Hot Mack ? 12T One C Roto

Paul Sporer: I still think Salvy has a major run coming in the summer. Still have 10 HRs from him, too, so while I won’t pretend his 57 wRC+ is good, he’s still 16th at C on the Player Rater

jus24: Long time deep dynasty owner. Does it look like, if health were not a factor, Lawlar would be a borderline all star candidate? Man, I want him to work out.

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, he has incredible talent. Unfortunately on that Royce Lewis career track right now, but I will remain bought in on him for the talent and take the discount the injuries bring

BurtReynolds: Christian Moore’s bat speed is up nearly 2 mph and he showed better plate discipline in the minors.  Do you have any interest, particularly in a keeper?

Paul Sporer: I still had overall prospect interest given his youth and relatively clean slate we’re still dealing with right now (only 200 MLB PA), but my interest is further piqued by the improvements you highlight. Gives some credence to his AAA numbers not just being PCL-induced craziness. Like I mentioned in the Twins Q earlier, the Angels offense can be sneaky solid when they’re on so if Moore can carve out some time, the R/RBI chances might not be too bad even in the middle/backend of the lineup

Roger: Feltner at Min Bennett vs Yankees Jose Cabrera at Tampa. Please rank. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: The order you listed. I still think Feltner is a dude, just needs to get out of Coors!! And I know he’s not perfect on the road, but I think if he was on Milwaukee or Detroit or somewhere like KC that isn’t known for pitching dev, he’d be a legit Team Streamer. As I’ve been stressing though, Min isn’t a pushover, so don’t expect greatness, but he’s the best of those 3 options for sure

Beano: I’m hoping you’ll chime in on this one Paul! The Phillies need a pitcher and I wonder if they’ve found their man in Alan Rangel? He’s done fine minor league work and was splendid in a 5-inning bulk appearance. Could he/should he be the Painter replacement?

Paul Sporer: He can certainly bridge the gap to the Trade Deadline if he’s pitching like this. While he is a 28 y/o non-prospect, that doesn’t mean he’s devoid talent and upside. He’s up to 14% SwStr in his 70 MiLB IP this year so if he’s living around the 12% we’ve seen in his 8 MLB IP so far, he can be a solid backend piece for them and I hope they keep giving him an Opener.

MD: Thoughts on Painter? I called him up from my minors too early this year…now he’s back down and probably no longer a trade chip

Paul Sporer: I’d be reluctant to completely give up despite how bleak it is. In fact, it’s a true buy low for those in keeper/dynasty situations where he makes sense to hold at a cheap price.

Peter Larsen: When Jeffers is back would you keep him over Moreno?

Paul Sporer: Yes, for sure. He’s been SO good

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta head out. Great stuff today, always appreciate y’all filling up the queue. Back next week!