Creating a Rotation with Post-300 ADP Pitchers
Every year we see throngs of late round arms put up huge fantasy seasons. Injury returners, rising rookies, and out of nowhere gems are just some of the paths we see pitchers take from a post-300 ADP into the top 50 SPs. Last year saw Ranger Suárez, Matthew Boyd, Zach Littell, Ryne Nelson, and Shane Smith deliver a ton of fantasy value from outside the Top 300, among many more who had periods of viability that could’ve been curated into some better numbers than their final season line.
Let’s build a 15-team roto rotation comprised entirely of post-300 picks with seven starters and two relievers. We’re going to look for an ace, some strong frontliners, a few team streamers, a swingman lottery ticket, and then our closers. I’m not just going to take all the 300-310 ADP guys, either. For one, it’s cheap and doesn’t really explore the pool if I stay entirely at the top end, and two, these guys could easily move into the top 300 by peak draft season in March. I’m using NFBC ADP Draft Champions data from January 19th-February 9th, a 20-draft slice.
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Ace (#1)
Finding a bankable ace this late in the draft is remarkably difficult, so we’re looking for ace material. In this case, I’m looking for a guy who can put up 130+ IP of good ratios (let’s say sub-4.00 ERA/sub-1.20 WHIP), strikeout upside (~22-24%), and some Win potential (definitely not a prerequisite). Only 29 pitchers reached the ratio thresholds in 130 IP last year, though most of the guys in our ADP threshold were on the lower end of the K% band. Shane Smith’s 24% mark was the best of the post-300 group meeting these ratios.
