Author Archive: Mike Podhorzer

As difficult as it is to keep up with during the spring, my Pod Projections reflect a hitter’s expected position in the batting order. For the best projections, they must, as all the counting stat forecasts are affected by a hitter’s spot. And yet even when we think we know where a hitter is going to slot in, when the games finally start to matter, there are always surprises. So here are a bunch of hitters whose spot in the batting order differs from my projection and whose value would therefore be affected meaningfully if it sticks.

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Yesterday, I unveiled my bold hitter league leaders, with the acknowledgement that these are a lot tougher to hit than the generic Bold Predictions. The pitching side of the ledger is a bit easier, but still difficult, of course. Given that there is more luck and factors outside the specific pitcher’s control involved that shape his surface results, it’s more conceivable that a non-favorite leads the league in a category.

In an effort to avoid double dipping and naming the same pitcher in two categories, there may have been a slightly better bold choice for a particular category. I opted to come up with different names in each. Also keep in mind that it is difficult to balance boldness with realistic. I eliminated many names that I didn’t think were bold, but maybe you do. I also eliminated names that have no real chance at leading in the category.

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Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders is even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe should be considered bold. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000 (though last year I actually hit one!).

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

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Last year, I set a new personal record, hitting on four of my 10 bold predictions. Let’s go for five this time!

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This past weekend, a collection of fantasy baseball veteran nerds gathered in New York City for our annual Tout Wars auction and after-party fun. It’s always one of the best weekends of the year, and this year I got to hang out with fellow RotoGraphers Paul Sporer, Jeff Zimmerman, Al Melchior, and Justin Mason. We represented! Oh, and dare I forget my AL-Only league competitor and representer of every fantasy baseball site on the Internet, Jason Collette.

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Alas, we have reached the end of the Pod’s Picks and Pans series. We conclude with a look at starting pitchers. Since there are just so many differences of opinion, I didn’t strictly go down the line of pitchers with the largest gaps, but rather cherry picked a bit that would be the most insightful.

Starting Pitchers March Rankings Update

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Let’s finish up the hitting side of Pod’s Picks and Pans with a look at the outfielders. Since we draft so many of them, there are far more opportunities for disagreement. For this position, I’ll only consider Picks to be those in my top 60 and Pans to be those in the consensus top 60.

Outfielders March Rankings Update

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Let’s continue my picks and pans with a look at the second base and shortstop positions. Like for the corner guys, I’ll only consider Picks to be those in my top 20 and Pans to be those in the consensus top 20.

March Rankings Updates:
Second Base
Shortstop

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Yesterday, I shared my picks and pans at the catcher position by comparing my ranks to the consensus ranks after excluding my own. Continuing through the infield, we’ll combine first and third base together so I can finish these before the season begins. These were the March updated first base rankings and here are the third base rankings.

Unlike catchers, I’m going to restrict my picks to those that made my top 20 and my pans to those that made the consensus top 20.

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It’s Pod’s Picks and Pans time! Last week, we rolled out our updated RotoGraphs positional rankings, so as usual, it’s time to discuss the players I’m in most disagreement on. As suggested by a commenter last year, I’m using the LN function to determine the difference between my rank and the consensus. This method better accounts for the fact that there’s a larger difference in value between a hitter ranked 2nd versus 3rd than one ranked 20th versus 21st.

I’ll start with catchers. Pod’s Picks will only include hitters in my top 24, while Pod’s Pans will only include hitters in the consensus top 24. Keep in mind I removed my ranking from the average and recalculated the average from the Rankings Update.

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