2017 Bold Hitter League Leaders
Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders is even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe should be considered bold. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000 (though last year I actually hit one!).
We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.
American League
Batting Average – Manny Machado
I’m going to double down here as Machado was also my pick last season. He did end up posting a career high batting average, but in three seasons, plus half a season, he has yet to breach the .300 barrier. Machado has the better than average strikeout rate and lots of homers to prop up his batting average. But he still has a pop-up problem. And since he hit fly balls at the highest rate of his career last year, his pop-ups jumped to its highest mark. He ranked third in baseball in infield fly balls. That’s not going to lead to a high BABIP, though he did manage to post one a bit above the league average. He doesn’t exactly possess the profile of a high BABIP guy, but what if he did cut down on those pop-ups and benefit from some good fortune on those dinks and dunks? By my projections, all he would need is a .338 BABIP to lead my AL projections in batting average. That’s not asking for too much.
Home Runs – Gregory Bird
I know, I know, I picked the hypiest of the hyped guys, but this is still bold and it’s hard to select a player here who would be considered a surprising and truly unlikely choice. He makes respectable contact for a power hitter, with Steamer projecting a strikeout rate just barely worse than last year’s league average. And while 2015 does represent a rather small sample size, he was an extreme fly ball hitter, posting a FB% just over 50%. If repeated, that will do no favors for his batting average, but do wonders for his home run total. Perhaps most importantly, he calls the best home run park for left-handed homers home, as Yankee Stadium boosts lefty taters by 30%. Batting third now will give him a couple of extra plate appearances to eke out the league lead.
RBI – Kendrys Morales
For literally the first time in his career, Morales will call a hitter friendly venue home. Not only that, but he’ll be hitting cleanup behind two high OBP guys, plus a leadoff man who’s acceptable in his own right. He should have tons of opportunities to drive in runs and the power boost he should enjoy from the switch in park will increase his RBI total. He’s only knocked in more than 100 runs twice, but he has a good shot to make it a third time this year.
Runs – Carlos Santana
Easy formula here — a projected .356 OBP and lots of power, expected to bat leadoff for an excellent lineup. He batted leadoff often last season, but that ended up occurring just 57% of the time. If he remains in the spot more frequently, he could score more than 100 runs for the first time in his career.
Stolen Bases – Delino DeShields
Bold? Not bold? I don’t know, but I feared if I didn’t make him my pick, I’d be asked about it in the comments. DeShields has most likely become the hottest pickup in fantasy leagues these last couple of days as he has seemingly taken over the starting left field job in Texas and perhaps even the leadoff role. The 24-year-old flopped last year and was demoted to the minors, but a fantastic spring reminded the Rangers of his offensive potential. He has typically shown good walk rates that should ensure at least an average OBP. And holy cow does he have speed. He stole 101 (!!!!) bases back in 2012, then 59 in 2013, and 54 in 2014. He easily led spring batters in steals with 14, so he may be looking to run wild again.
National League
Batting Average – Nolan Arenado
For the third straight season, Arenado is my choice here. Of the top 21 players in my batting average projections, Arenado is the only with a BABIP forecast below .300. That means that he just needs a bit of better fortune, and there’s certainly room for some good luck here. His profile is similar to Machado’s, but he has the benefit of calling the most BABIP boosting park home. It’s pretty amazing to me that he has yet to hit .300, though his average, like Machado’s, has been on an upswing. Of course, he’ll need to reverse the upward trend in his fly ball rate, as that’s excellent for his power, not so much for his batting average.
Home Runs – Ryan Schimpf
I already boldly predicted that Schimpf would outhomer Bryce Harper. So might as well go all in. There’s nothing more to add, so I’ll just reiterate that his combination of power (high Brls/BBE) and penchant for fly balls (second highest FB% since 2002) means lots and lots of homers. He’ll need to keep hitting for power though as he’s not going to impress with his batting average and his defense at second last year was poor. If he hits an extended slump, he may very well lose his job to Cory Spangenberg, who’s going to be biding his time at Triple-A waiting for an opportunity.
RBI – Maikel Franco
After a big spring training, Franco disappointed last season for those expecting a monstrous breakout. But he’s just yet another example of why spring results (not underlying skills) should be 99.9% ignored. He performed exactly how one should have expected had that spring performance never occurred. That said, he figures to bat cleanup this year, as opposed to third, where he mostly batted last year. Cleanup is a better slot for runs batted in and he’ll be behind a heck of a lack of power. While the missing power is bad for the Phillies offense, it means that the guys ahead of him won’t be stealing as many RBI, leaving him with more ducks on the pond to drive home himself. And who knows, with just a 14.7% HR/FB rate last year, there’s seemingly ample room for growth, which could boost his RBI total even higher.
Runs – Kyle Schwarber
This is actually bolder than you might believe because given the Cubs depth, it’s unlikely that Schwarber start very often, if at all, against lefties. But he’s going to serve in an nontraditional role for a slow power guy in that he figures to bat leadoff. For a guy I’m projecting for a .348 OBP, with lots of home run power resulting in an instant run scored each time, and on what’s projected to be the second highest scoring offense in the National League, he’s capable of pulling a Kris Bryant from 2016, who led the league in runs scored.
Stolen Bases – Manuel Margot
The Padres ran like crazy last year and Margot is the newest speedster to join the everyday lineup. He has been hitting at or near the top of the lineup during spring training, which means he’ll probably be aggressive on the basepaths. He stole 32 bases last season and 39 the season before. He has also struck out infrequently while in the minors, so despite generally low walk rates, should be able to keep his OBP at an acceptable level.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I like the Machado pick. He still seems like he has another gear of improvement. I’m going a different direction on AVG and will pick Nick Castellanos to lead the AL in batting average in 2017.
Except that he already posted a .345 BABIP, how much higher can he go? He’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts and hit even more homers to push that average well above .300.
Bold Pick for AL Leader in Runs: Andrew Benintendi. I could see Benintendi at least matching Carlos Santana’s OBP, the lineup is better in Boston, and he has more footspeed. He needs a solid start to the year so that he does not get platooned for a few months, thereby losing at bats and any chance for this to come true.
Bold Pick for AL Leader in HRs: Jose Bautista. It will be deja-vu all over again in Toronto.
Bold Pick for AL Leader in RBIs: Carlos Correa. Great lineup with speed in front of him in the order, and a park that really helps to boost righty power.
Bold Pick for AL Leader in SBs: Kevin Kiermaier. If he hits 2nd all year like he did on opening day then I could see Kiermaier leading the league with a total of 42 SB, narrowly beating out Jarrod Dyson.
I really like the Santana pick. I did the math on how many runs he scored batting first extrapolated over his total PA’s last year and it came out to just under 100 runs.
I learned two things while doing this:
1. Santana is durable. Averaging 653 PA’s over the last six years.
2. Santana hasn’t been a horrible base runner over the last four years (-0.7 average). It’s much better than Pedroia who is leading off and seems like a better base runner (-1.9).
These are bold picks certainly—except for Morales. I can see him leading the league in RBI. It’s not just Toronto that’s favorable to LHBs, but Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards as well. Yep, he has a good chance to lead the AL in RBI.
But Machado and Santana have the same problem: how do you leap frog over hitters named Trout, Altuve, Betts and Donaldson?
As an O’s fan, I’d love to see Machado improve his walk rate and reduce his IFFB rate, but how realistic is that? He’s only had one season where his walk rate has sniffed 10%. And walk rate usually indicates how aggressive a hitter is. And his pop up rate has been remarkably stable over the past five seasons, never going lower than 12.5%. (With an average over 14%.) I don’t see that changing much.
As for Santana: sure, I could see him scoring 100 runs this year. But will that be close enough to lead the AL in runs scored? His walk rate and power combined are nice, but he still most likely won’t catch guys like Donaldson, Altuve or Trout for runs scored.
Donaldson has that great hitter’s park, and Altuve and Trout are a lot faster than Santana. The latter two are much more likely to score from first on a double than Santana, as is Betts. (And Betts, Altuve and Trout steal bases, which puts them in a better position to score.)
And don’t forget that Kipnis is hurt with a rotator cuff problem (a tricky injury to overcome) and that Naquin’s numbers scream regression. And what if Brantley turns out to be brittle? IMHO the Indians won’t score as many runs as last year, even with the addition of Encarnacion.
Picking 2 fat guys to lead the leagues in runs is quite boled
Or bowled? Custom bowls are all the rage for lunch in NYC.
I reckon his owners’ hearts skipped a beat when you wrote about Schwarber: “This is actually bolder than you might believe because given the Cubs depth, it’s unlikely that Schwarber start very often…”
Not a bad start with the Schimpf pick – HR off of Kershaw
Amen to that. Kershaw didn’t give up a single HR to a left-handed batter in 2016, and he does so in his first game of 2017. To be fair, the replay suggested it was a mistake by Kershaw…a 93 mph fast ball up and over the middle of the plate. But Schimpf recognized it and punished it. To my untrained eye, it seems like Schimpf does that a lot, which is a skill that actually can allow someone with his launch angle and exit velocity to lead the league in HRs.
It drives me batty to see people say that Schwarber will be platooned against LHPs. The Cubs management talks about him GLOWINGLY. They reportedly would not trade Schwarber for 2 1/2 years of Andrew Miller, instead preferring to deal a Top SS prospect + to get two months of Aroldis Chapman. They put him SECOND in the lineup in the World Series(!) after being out for six months!!
The Cubs LOVE Schwarber, there is no way they will make him a platoon bat. If he struggles big time, maybe they do it in the 2nd half, but there is zero chance that platooning Schwarber is the plan.
Amen to that. Don’t folks remember Schwarber spitting on Andrew Miller’s slider in the WS? After a 6th month lay-off, against perhaps the most electrifying southpaw in the sport, in as clutch a situation as one can imagine, the Cubs went all in on Schwarber’s ability to handle same side pitchers. I expect Schwarber to have a very long leash vs. lefties this season. If he’s really really struggling against southpaws at the all-star break, maybe the Cubs revisit the issue, but not before.
The Cubs depth will dictate that Kyle gets a day off now and again, likely vs. tough lefties, but to expect a strict platoon is to ignore the clear signals to the contrary by the Cubs brain trust.