2017 Bold Hitter League Leaders

Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders is even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe should be considered bold. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000 (though last year I actually hit one!).

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

American League

Batting Average – Manny Machado

I’m going to double down here as Machado was also my pick last season. He did end up posting a career high batting average, but in three seasons, plus half a season, he has yet to breach the .300 barrier. Machado has the better than average strikeout rate and lots of homers to prop up his batting average. But he still has a pop-up problem. And since he hit fly balls at the highest rate of his career last year, his pop-ups jumped to its highest mark. He ranked third in baseball in infield fly balls. That’s not going to lead to a high BABIP, though he did manage to post one a bit above the league average. He doesn’t exactly possess the profile of a high BABIP guy, but what if he did cut down on those pop-ups and benefit from some good fortune on those dinks and dunks? By my projections, all he would need is a .338 BABIP to lead my AL projections in batting average. That’s not asking for too much.

Home Runs – Gregory Bird

I know, I know, I picked the hypiest of the hyped guys, but this is still bold and it’s hard to select a player here who would be considered a surprising and truly unlikely choice. He makes respectable contact for a power hitter, with Steamer projecting a strikeout rate just barely worse than last year’s league average. And while 2015 does represent a rather small sample size, he was an extreme fly ball hitter, posting a FB% just over 50%. If repeated, that will do no favors for his batting average, but do wonders for his home run total. Perhaps most importantly, he calls the best home run park for left-handed homers home, as Yankee Stadium boosts lefty taters by 30%. Batting third now will give him a couple of extra plate appearances to eke out the league lead.

RBI – Kendrys Morales

For literally the first time in his career, Morales will call a hitter friendly venue home. Not only that, but he’ll be hitting cleanup behind two high OBP guys, plus a leadoff man who’s acceptable in his own right. He should have tons of opportunities to drive in runs and the power boost he should enjoy from the switch in park will increase his RBI total. He’s only knocked in more than 100 runs twice, but he has a good shot to make it a third time this year.

Runs – Carlos Santana

Easy formula here — a projected .356 OBP and lots of power, expected to bat leadoff for an excellent lineup. He batted leadoff often last season, but that ended up occurring just 57% of the time. If he remains in the spot more frequently, he could score more than 100 runs for the first time in his career.

Stolen Bases – Delino DeShields

Bold? Not bold? I don’t know, but I feared if I didn’t make him my pick, I’d be asked about it in the comments. DeShields has most likely become the hottest pickup in fantasy leagues these last couple of days as he has seemingly taken over the starting left field job in Texas and perhaps even the leadoff role. The 24-year-old flopped last year and was demoted to the minors, but a fantastic spring reminded the Rangers of his offensive potential. He has typically shown good walk rates that should ensure at least an average OBP. And holy cow does he have speed. He stole 101 (!!!!) bases back in 2012, then 59 in 2013, and 54 in 2014. He easily led spring batters in steals with 14, so he may be looking to run wild again.

National League

Batting Average – Nolan Arenado

For the third straight season, Arenado is my choice here. Of the top 21 players in my batting average projections, Arenado is the only with a BABIP forecast below .300. That means that he just needs a bit of better fortune, and there’s certainly room for some good luck here. His profile is similar to Machado’s, but he has the benefit of calling the most BABIP boosting park home. It’s pretty amazing to me that he has yet to hit .300, though his average, like Machado’s, has been on an upswing. Of course, he’ll need to reverse the upward trend in his fly ball rate, as that’s excellent for his power, not so much for his batting average.

Home Runs – Ryan Schimpf

I already boldly predicted that Schimpf would outhomer Bryce Harper. So might as well go all in. There’s nothing more to add, so I’ll just reiterate that his combination of power (high Brls/BBE) and penchant for fly balls (second highest FB% since 2002) means lots and lots of homers. He’ll need to keep hitting for power though as he’s not going to impress with his batting average and his defense at second last year was poor. If he hits an extended slump, he may very well lose his job to Cory Spangenberg, who’s going to be biding his time at Triple-A waiting for an opportunity.

RBI – Maikel Franco

After a big spring training, Franco disappointed last season for those expecting a monstrous breakout. But he’s just yet another example of why spring results (not underlying skills) should be 99.9% ignored. He performed exactly how one should have expected had that spring performance never occurred. That said, he figures to bat cleanup this year, as opposed to third, where he mostly batted last year. Cleanup is a better slot for runs batted in and he’ll be behind a heck of a lack of power. While the missing power is bad for the Phillies offense, it means that the guys ahead of him won’t be stealing as many RBI, leaving him with more ducks on the pond to drive home himself. And who knows, with just a 14.7% HR/FB rate last year, there’s seemingly ample room for growth, which could boost his RBI total even higher.

Runs – Kyle Schwarber

This is actually bolder than you might believe because given the Cubs depth, it’s unlikely that Schwarber start very often, if at all, against lefties. But he’s going to serve in an nontraditional role for a slow power guy in that he figures to bat leadoff. For a guy I’m projecting for a .348 OBP, with lots of home run power resulting in an instant run scored each time, and on what’s projected to be the second highest scoring offense in the National League, he’s capable of pulling a Kris Bryant from 2016, who led the league in runs scored.

Stolen Bases – Manuel Margot

The Padres ran like crazy last year and Margot is the newest speedster to join the everyday lineup. He has been hitting at or near the top of the lineup during spring training, which means he’ll probably be aggressive on the basepaths. He stole 32 bases last season and 39 the season before. He has also struck out infrequently while in the minors, so despite generally low walk rates, should be able to keep his OBP at an acceptable level.