Starting Pitcher Pitch Mix Changes

We know that pitch velocity stabilizes rather quickly and while a pitcher’s pitch mix each game could vary, sometimes wildly, it’s generally consistent from year to year. But often times, pitchers introduce a new pitch or switch up their current pitch mix in an effort to be more effective. Those changes could lead to a breakout if the pitcher lands on the optimal mix. Although we’re still only a couple of games started into the season, let’s take a gander at those starters who have thrown any of their pitches 15% more or less frequently than last season.

The below table includes the 11 pitchers who have thrown any of their pitches 15% more or less often with the pitch type and change indicated.

Kevin Gausman has thrown his slider significantly more often at the expense of nearly all his other pitches, most notably his splitter. Also interesting, is that his slider has gained considerable velocity. Since his debut, his splitter has easily been his best pitch, so him suddenly throwing it less is curious. Though so far this season the pitch has generated a swinging strike far less often than it had in previous seasons, his slider hasn’t been any good itself. The pitch has generated a SwStk% of just 8.9%.

It’s not like it has been just one start, as he has thrown his slider over 20% of the time in each of his three starts. That happened just three times all of last season! And on two of those occasions, he was just barely over 20%. I’m not sure the reason for the change, but this looks like it has the potential to be a negative for his performance. I’d monitor here and if he continues throwing his slider this frequently at the expense of his splitter, I’d be a nervous owner.

I was not a fan of Danny Salazar heading into the season, even boldly proclaiming that Jaime Garcia would outearn him. So far, he has doubled the usage of his changeup, at the expense of his fastball. That’s usually a positive for strikeouts. This is especially true for Salazar, as it’s his best pitch and an absolute elite one. It’s no surprise, then, that he has already struck out 20 of the 49 batters he has faced. This is a positive change, though it’s questionably how sustainable throwing his changeup 40% of the time is. That said, my pessimism was health-related, which this doesn’t solve.

So apparently Kendall Graveman is trying a new strategy – throw the sinker nearly every time and hope his defense could convert all those balls in play into outs. It’s a questionable one on a team with a weak infield defense. It also shouldn’t be any good for strikeouts. His career sinker SwStk% sits at just 5.0%, but the velocity on the pitch is up this year, so the SwStk% has been 8.6% in his first three starts. That’s still well below his cutter, though, so this just doesn’t seem like a good change from both a real, and fantasy, perspective. I doubt this lasts though, so if he doesn’t revert back to throwing 20%+ cutters, the added sinker velocity could result in a breakout. But that’s only if he stops throwing 90% sinkers!

It’s another year of wondering if this is the season for a Marcus Stroman breakout and here he is, changing his pitch mix to try to make that happen. But this change doesn’t look like a good one. While it might make sense for him to consolidate his extensive repertoire, throwing more fastballs doesn’t seem like the best solution. His two-seamer has generated just a 4.7% SwStk% through his career, and this season too. It’s a great ground ball pitch though, but gosh that’s a lot of balls in play. I’d be far less optimistic about a breakout if he continues to throw his fastball over 70% of the time.

Well damn, if you just looked at his underyling skills, you would have no idea the skill set belonged to Nathan Karns. His ground ball rate has skyrocketed up to nearly 60%, while his strikeout rate has collapsed. So much for that dominating spring training performance! Karns so far has swapped out his curve for his changeup. His change has actually always induced a higher rate of swinging strikes than the curve, but allowed a much higher wOBA. His fastball has been the culprit so far, as its lost a bit of velocity and simply not inducing whiffs. I think that’s a more important issue than the switch from the curve to the change. I was a big fan as a deep league sleeper given his defensive support and home park. Three starts won’t change that, but obviously this isn’t the start I was hoping for.

Welcome back Dylan Bundy’s cutter! His injuries discouraged him from throwing the pitch, but in his first two starts, he has thrown it 27.3% of the time, most of which has been at the expense of his fastball, which is down in velocity. And that cutter, woah, that cutter. PITCHf/x labels it a slider, but it generated a SwStk% of 33.9%! His fastball has been terrible, but if he gets it back and continues to throw the cutter this often, the breakout is pretty much in the bag.

What happens when you suddenly throw your fastball over 80% of the time, a pitch that’s also down in velocity? Just ask Ivan Nova, who has struck out just five of the 51 batters he has faced. A full season in the National League is supposed to boost strikeout rate, but that’s not going to happen unless he brings back his curve ball.

Derek Holland has battled through injuries and his strikeout rate has been in a downward spiral. Now he’s throwing his fastball far less, increasing the usage of his three off-speed offerings. That’s typically a good move, but only his slider has been any good in the past. Since he remains in a terrible park for pitchers and in front of a bad defense, this likely won’t be enough to earn him AL-Only value.

Woah, where’d all these cutters come from out of the hand of Matt Moore?! Eno discussed Moore’s usage of the pitch last year and believed it solved his issues. PITCHf/x actually thinks he has thrown the pitch even more frequently. The cutter usage has come at the expense of both his fastball and curve ball. Unfortunately, the cutter hasn’t actually been any good. It sports a weak 7.4% SwStk% and while it has been his best ground ball pitch so far, AT&T Park is actually one of the best venues to be a fly ball pitcher, with its homer-suppressing ways. Furthermore, his curve ball had always induced grounders, so he’s just swapping out one grounder pitch for another. But the other one, the cutter, hasn’t gotten the whiffs. So far, the results don’t suggest this change is a good one for Moore.

Jake Odorizzi is another who is throwing his fastball less in favor of his secondary pitches. Unlike most, that might not be the best move, as his fastball has always induced better than average SwStk% marks, with his changeup the only pitch that is in the double digits over his career. Plus, with all the fly balls his fastball allows, he has Kevin Kiermaier to gobble those up. He doesn’t necessarily need to cut down on the flies, like some other pitchers might. I’m borderline on this change.

Well man, Phil Hughes never threw his changeup more than 10.2% of the time (back in 2012), and now he’s at 27% with the pitch! He’s barely throwing his fastball, which is actually a good thing. His velocity is way down, so throwing anything but the pitch is probably a good thing. Then again, his changeup stinks. It doesn’t induce whiffs or ground balls. I think what I’m trying to say here is that you did something wrong if Hughes is on your roster.