Adam Frazier & Chris Coghlan: Deep League Wire
Get out the pom-poms, it’s the first Pod deep league wire of the season! As a reminder, I’ll discuss two players that are owned in 10% or less of CBS leagues.
Adam Frazier | PIT OF | CBS 9% Owned
You no doubt heard the shocking news that Starling Marte has been suspended for 80 games for PED use. The biggest immediate beneficiary is Frazier, as Pirates GM Neil Huntington stated that top prospect Austin Meadows is not ready:
Austin Meadows simply not ready yet to be in big leagues, #Pirates GM Neal Huntington says
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) April 18, 2017
That should have been fairly obvious after a quick glance at his Triple-A stats. He posted just a .335 wOBA at the level in 145 plate apearances last year, and sports a sad .222 mark early on to begin this year. Top prospect or not, ya gotta earn your call-up!
Frazier, on the other hand, has quietly posted a .379 wOBA, while continuing to maintain a batting average over .300, thanks to an inflated BABIP. Are you surprised? You shouldn’t be. That’s because he actually led my xBABIP spreadsheet in my newest xBABIP last year, with an insane .386 mark. Of course, much of that was fueled by an unsustainable 33.1% LD%, but he also hit few fly balls and pop-ups, was rarely shifted against, and displayed average power and above average speed. Since he’s gotten time at four different positions, and six if you count each outfield spot as different, he’s going to play often, even if they do find a long-term replacement for Marte…like Meadows.
Obviously, you won’t get much power here. His career high in home runs in a season is a whopping two, and while he has some speed and has stolen double digit bases each year since 2014, he’s been a pretty terrible basestealer. But he makes good contact and makes for a perfect stopgap solution in a deep league. Just don’t go nuts and think he’ll help much in a shallow format.
Chris Coghlan | TOR 2B/OF | 0% Owned
He’s back! You know your league is deep when you’re upset that you didn’t land Coghlan in FAAB. That’s exactly how I felt when I wasn’t quite aggressive enough in the bidding in AL Tout. With Josh Donaldson on the DL and expected to miss two to four weeks thanks to a calf injury, the Blue Jays are left with a whole bunch of unappealing options like Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins. These two have proven to possess an inability to hit, which especially hurts coming from a corner infielder.
Of course, Coghlan didn’t hit last year either, posting a pathetic .269 wOBA, but that was driven mostly by a career low .235 BABIP. xBABIP suggests that he deserved much, much better though, as it calculated a .300 mark, not too far off from his previous seasons. Since he owns some speed and power, and even walked more than 10% of the time the past two seasons, there’s obvious potential for a nice rebound. Stick him in one of the best hitting environments in baseball and the opportunity for some playing time and you got yourself a nice deep league target.
What happens when Donaldson returns though? Well, if you hadn’t noticed, the Jays have gotten literally nothing offensively from their left fielders. Steve Pearce has posted a .170 wOBA, while Ezequiel Carerra is sitting at .236. Pearce is 34 and swinging far more frequently than usual, and although the sample size remains too tiny to conclude anything, you never know when a player’s time is just up. Carrera’s lack of hitting can’t be considered a shocking twist as he sports just a .293 career wOBA. Bottom line, there is opportunity in left field as well if Coghlan performs well leading up to Donaldson’s return.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
What stats do you think are the leading indicators that an older player is done?
I don’t think there’s anything to determine for sure, aside from waiting until the end of the season and looking back and saying “hmmm, guess he’s done”! But, if we were to make such an attempt, I’d look at the contact rate stats, such as Z-Contact% and SwStk%. The thinking is an older player loses his bat speed and starts whiffing more often.
thanks! for pearce it looks like all that yoga maybe turned him into a wuss. 🙂 his Z contact and swinging strike rate are all just fine, it’s his hard contact % that cratered. (btw, i kid about yoga)
Defining the skills base that make up his value can help. By that I mean if a player has always had a speed-based game, age won’t allow his value to last long. But a power-based game has better staying power. We don’t worry so much about Miggy at 34 losing value because his hit skills won’t suffer, nor defense much, and he never had speed anyay. When Carl Crawford’s demise was in high gear at only 29 and he out of OB at 34, his speed-based game had disappeared and he had nothing to compensate. In his case it was triples, doubles, stolen bases and range factor in the outfield. But, this answer covers only a small number of players and is not very helpful otherwise.
Thoughts on Jaff Decker, who had a monster spring and could work into some time in Oak, where they are realizing Rajai is a part time player?
FormerPiratesEverywhere
Don’t care about his spring performance, that’s meaningless. I don’t know, minor league stats look solid, especially his big walk rates and some power here and there. But he’s 27 with just 100+ MLB plate appearances. I’d imagine there’s gotta be a reason he hasn’t been given a shot. Not sure what the issue is though, defense?
Davis is a veteran, if the team didn’t know what they had heading into the season, they should all be fired. Just because he’s had a slow two weeks shouldn’t be the nail in the coffin. Well, maybe it is, but that’s very stupid.
I know Frazier continually gets brought up as playing second base, but do we see him taking over for Mercer at SS down the line? He played that in all of 2014. Or is the defensive drop off too substantial a hit to take?
He is not viewed as a viable MLB SS by the Bucs, they do however love him and he will get plenty of PT at 2B and OF.
What do you think about Motter? I’ve got him in an AL-only league and my deep points league (almost no deductions for K’s at minus .2).
He posted some decent minor league numbers with the Rays, so I’m guessing the Mariners will find some ABs—if he keeps hitting of course—for him elsewhere when Segura returns.
Well sure, he’s hot now and teams for whatever reason believe in hot streaks. So he’ll play until he cools off, which he will, because he’s not that good. Then he becomes just a reserve and everyone drops him and he’s forgotten about.
Bear with me here…
If you pull up a 2014-16 leaderboard, sort to hitters vs. RHP, and set a minimum of 950 PAs, Chris Coghlan’s .337 wOBA ranks 71st, tied with Heyward, Pujols, Fowler, Kemp, and Carlos Gomez and ahead of Calhoun, LeMahieu, and Frazier. Keep in mind, this includes his awful, unlucky 2016 where he had a .244 BABIP and a .275 wOBA vs. RHP.
If you trim it to just 2014-15 with 700 PAs minimum, Coghlan’s got a .358 wOBA. That’s good for 32nd, ahead of Eaton, Kipnis, Upton, Blackmon and just .001 behind Donaldson.
I get there are a lot of warts in the profile, especially in category leagues where he’s not really filling up the sheet. But as this is a deep league article, I think you could do way worse than a flier on Coghlan, who also probably qualifies at 3-4 positions.