Discussing CBS Leagues Most Added Hitters

I struggle enough with pitcher analysis this early in the season, but it’s even more difficult to evaluate hitters. At least for pitchers, we have pitch metrics, such as velocity and movement, along with pitch mix and batted ball distribution that stabilize relatively quickly. We have no such metrics with which to analyze hitters, so it’s difficult to conclude with anything other then “small sample size, expect regression toward career averages” for each hitter. Let’s see how well I could avoid such a phrase as we take a look at the six hitters that have been added the most in CBS leagues over the last week.

After a fantasy baseball breakout that included 21 homers and 11 steals, it was quite surprising to see Eugenio Suarez owned in just a third of leagues heading into the season. But his hot start has convinced fantasy owners that they made a mistake in passing him up, as they have been scrambling to add him to their rosters. There are a bunch of good signs here, such as an improved SwStk%, O-Swing%, Contact%, walk and strikeout rates, and tons of line drives.

While he’s not going to maintain a 30% HR/FB rate, that his power has continued and his Hard% remains well above 30% is sure to quell any doubts about his ability to whack 20 long balls again. I think an 80% ownership mark is now a bit too high, of course, but he had no business being down at 33% to begin with. He belongs much closer to 80% than 33%.

With another homer last night, Eric Thames‘ HR/FB rate is probably over 50% now. Obviously, he won’t keep this pace up, but how the heck was he at just a 50% ownership rate to begin with?! I get the hesitancy to take stats from the KBO seriously, but he was so, so good that unless you’re in an eight-team mixed league or shallower, how was not one team in nearly every league willing to offer Thames a bench spot at the very least?

Question marks like Thames are almost always great draft day buys because they typically come cheap and if they don’t pan out, you invested little, but if they do, you just reaped huge profit. I’m just angry at myself for only owning him in one league. I had planned to buy him in my local league auction, but unfortunately the context of the auction, my team, and my budget at the time meant a marriage between us was not meant to be. Sad face.

Boy, all it takes is one hot week and fantasy owners are flocking back to Travis d’Arnaud! He’s been the definition of injury prone and was a disaster at the plate last year, posting an ISO barely higher than Dee Gordon. With two homers last week, it’s easy to think that he’s healthy and good now, but who knows. His walk and strikeout rates look great, but he’s not making any better contact and actually swinging at pitches outside the zone at a career high clip. Actually, his walk rate is inflated by the one intentional walk while hitting ahead of the pitcher. Take it away and his walk rate is back to normal.

I don’t know, if he could wiggle out of the eight hole for good, maybe he’ll be better than just a second catcher in shallow mixed leagues. He’s certainly worth rostering as that second catcher, but a 76% ownership rate suggests how bad the catcher pool is. How many teams out there are just rotating through the hot catcher of the week hoping to catch lightning in a bottle?

Your current MLB BABIP leader — Avisail Garcia. Man, he’s been really awesome at hitting singles, which he leads the league in! And fantasy owners crave singles. Seriously, why the excitement? Are fantasy owners just sorting by current batting average and blindly picking up the top guy? He’s a .264 career hitter, was on a pace for a whopping 16 homers last year extrapolated to 600 plate appearances (and that required a hefty 17% HR/FB rate just to get there!), and is probably going to get dropped back down toward the bottom half of the order once he stops singling teams to death.

There’s literally nothing here to suggest a breakout is upon us. His SwStk% remains at a disgusting 16%, he still swings at far too many pitches outside the zone (although his O-Swing% is actually sitting at a career low right now…scary considering it’s still far above the league average), and his Hard% is actually down a couple of ticks from last year. Soooo, it’s really just all about the BABIP and a bunch of singles that happen to be dropping in or finding holes. A 47% ownership rate isn’t that embarrassing, but it’s kinda silly that it took a bunch of singles for fantasy owners to take notice.

Cesar Hernandez, power hitter. The man who supposedly wanted to steal 30-40 bases…

Cesar Hernandez has arrived in Phillies camp, added strength over winter, taking weight from 165 to 180. Says he wants to steal 30-40 bags.

— Jim Salisbury (@JSalisburyCSN) February 16, 2017

…might hit 30-40 homers instead, at this rate. His fly ball rate is way up, suggesting a conscious change in plate approach, but his Hard% is identical to last year and his career mark. So, pardon me for stating the obvious, but this appears to be a complete fluke. That said, a 39% ownership rate for a guy who could flirt with 20 steals, bats leadoff, and should contribute a bit of positive value in batting average, is way too low. A surprising power surge was the kick fantasy owners needed to give him the love he deserves.

Man, the knee-jerk reaction to those chasing Chase Headley was to LOL. But there are some very strange mixed signals in his early season performance profile. He’s swinging and missing less than ever before, but more importantly, he’s third in baseball in O-Swing%…as in third lowest. He has always swung at pitches outside the zone infrequently, but this is an entirely new level. At age 32, this is probably just a good two weeks. But, maybe not.

Other impressive stats to consider — his line drive rate is a robust 41.4%, which leads baseball and has no doubt helped boost his BABIP to .500, and he has yet to hit a pop-up. He has also walked one more time than he has struck out. However, oddly enough given all these exciting skills improvements, his Hard% sits at a career low! How Bizarre. I’m happy to own him in AL Tout and will be crossing my fingers the good times last, but I have little interest in anything shallower than a deep mixed league.