Discussing the Most Added AL SPs in CBS

What do you look for in second-week-of-the-season pitcher pickups? I’m solely looking at quality of stuff improvements, such as increased velocity, a spike in swinging strikes from a guy who rarely induces lots of them, and perhaps a new pitch mix featuring more prominently a pitch that has been effective, but less frequently thrown, in the past. Unfortunately, 99% of fantasy owners are simply picking up the guys who happened to only allow a run or less in their first start. While a blind squirrel will eventually find a nut, it’s not the most efficient path to success. That said, let’s take a gander at which American League starting pitchers fantasy owners are picking up on CBS.

James Shields endured one of the most hilariously brutal partial seasons I have ever witnessed after he was traded to the White Sox last summer. He was already suffering his worst season from a skill perspective before the trade, and then things became disastrous. Move a homer prone pitcher into one of the best parks for homers, from the National League to the American League, and this is what happens.

Yet, fantasy owners are seemingly displaying a short memory, rushing to free agency to pluck him away. Why? Well, because he’s allowed just two runs over his first two starts, of course. Seriously? He has also walked seven of the 43 batters he has faced, for an inflated 16.3% walk rate, pushing his SIERA to 4.92, his fastball velocity is just about the same as last year, remaining down about two miles per hour from 2014, and he has oddly stop throwing his signature changeup. It’s only been two starts, but there’s literally nothing here to suggest the good Shields is back. I wouldn’t want to be starting him when that inevitable two innings, 3 homer, seven run implosion occurs.

In a surprise move, Jordan Montgomery is the current fifth starter for the Yankees, as none of the other contenders stood out during the spring. He pitched yesterday and managed to strike out seven in just 4.2 innings. His strikeout rate has been up and down throughout his minor league career, and he has thrown just 37 innings at the Triple-A level, so it’s tough to get a good read on what we could expect in the near-term. He was only ranked as the team’s 14th best prospect heading into the season, with his command potentially allowing him to stay in the rotation, versus the quality of his stuff. Since pitching is always hard to come by in AL-Only leagues, he’s worth a gamble there, but really, that’s it.

Hector Santiago has allowed three runs over two starts, so of course he gets picked up. Let’s ignore the fact that he posted a 4.70 ERA (5.07 SIERA) last year and has never supported his sub-4.00 ERA with strong skills. Is this a new and improved Santiago? Heck no! He has struck out a puny five of the 44 batters he has faced, but a pathetic 11.4% strikeout rate. Though, that’s a bit strange considering his SwStk% currently sits at a career high. He was mildly interesting when he pitched for the Angels, given the home park and defense. But the Twins? Nah.

Jason Vargas returned from Tommy John surgery last year, pitching just 12 innings, and all it took was one start allowing just a run for fantasy owners to add him. I like anyone on the Royals, but this is a guy who has thrown a total of 80.1 innings over the last two seasons and is now 34 years old. His home park and defensive support means he’s an AL-Only option, but that’s it. If AL-Only leagues make up 9% of CBS leagues, then perhaps that ownership total had been too low and simply corrected itself this week.

Jesse Chavez allowed just a run in his first start, but reminded fantasy owners last night why picking up a pitcher after just one start isn’t always the best idea. Chavez pitched solely in relief last year, but has posted strikeout rates above 20% every season since 2012, with sub-4.00 SIERA marks. He’s the definition of boring, but should be owned in deep mixed leagues.