Last week, I analyzed the 2016 home-to-first times for hitters. With the background information out of the way, I’ll examine at the 2017 speed data to find who’s running the faster and slowest, who’s changed the most since 2016, and how home-to-first times compare to Bill James’s speed score.

With all the Statcast batted ball data getting analyzed, I continue examining the home-to-first times. Fantasy owners may believe speed is mainly used to determine stolen base threats. It’s more than that.

It’s an input to many other fantasy related factors which can help explain a player’s age-related decline. Faster players will beat out a few extra ground balls for hits thereby raising their batting average and on-base percentage. Speed allows a player to score more once on base. It can add to a hitter’s power profile. Also, speed can help keep a player maintain their fielding range at a premium defensive position instead of moving to a statue-like position (e.g. first base). Finally, a drop in running speed may point to an injured player.

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With six weeks of baseball in the books, those early-season samples are getting a bit larger. I usually post updates to this list at the beginning of each month, but the extra two weeks helped me compile rankings I’m more confident in, from a rest-of-season perspective. (Isn’t it crazy that we’re already nearly a quarter of the way through the regular season?) For reference, here’s my preseason rankings.

TIER ONE

• Jose Altuve

I made the silly mistake of not giving Altuve his own tier to begin the season, a wrong which I am presently righting. The 27-year-old spent the last six weeks doing typical Jose Altuve things, being a solid five-category contributor with no clear holes in his fantasy game. He’s on pace for about 25 homers and 40 steals, and he’s flirting with a .300 average despite posting a career high 17.2% strikeout rate.

If you need to nitpick, that K-rate is where you’d want to do it, but I’m not that worried. Altuve’s whiff rate is only up slightly — from last year’s 6.7% to 8.2% — and he’s seeing a freakishly high number of first-pitch strikes (68.7%; league-average is about 58%). The strikeouts will come down, and the average will probably pop back up a bit.

What’s so impressive about Altuve isn’t just that he’s best second baseman in fantasy, it’s that he’s so consistent in maintaining that top spot. He truly does deserve his own tier.

TIER TWO

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When somebody I know follows me on Twitter, I usually say to myself, “oh hey, cool.” The exception is when they play in one of my fantasy leagues. Back up off me already.

AGENDA

1. About Time
2. Weather Reports
3. Perfect Lineup
4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
5. Hitters to Use
6. SaberSim Says…
7. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Episode 263 – Battle of the Zacks

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss saying hi to your mothers, Jake Marisnick’s golden sombrero, getting excited about Luis Valbuena, Kevin Pillar the Thrillar, the arrival of Ian Happ, Joe Biagini’s moderate success, Matt Garza’s surprising success, Jordan Montgomery’s new nickname, and the struggling Tigers pitching staff.

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Last week, I discussed the early Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event) leaders and laggards from the Statcast leaderboard. Let’s continue our look at the metric, this time using my new Statcast fueled xHR/FB rate equation to identify the hitters whose xHR/FB rates are significantly higher than their actual HR/FB rates. The gap suggests these hitters could enjoy an imminent surge in home run power.

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Max Scherzer is a machine. No seriously, look at him:

Max Scherzer just threw an immaculate inning one frame after being nailed by a comebacker. #LegendOfMax pic.twitter.com/hhr6Set8Pb

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 15, 2017

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Some claim a week starts on Monday. Some say Sunday. Since Saturday is my only off day, I’m inclined to vote for Sunday. Welcome to the first Grind of week… what week are we on again?

AGENDA

1. Weather Reports
2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
3. Hitters to Use
4. SaberSim Says…

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Jose Berrios‘ 2017 debut couldn’t have gone any better Saturday. He allowed just one run on two hits over 7.2 innings and struck out four in the win over Cleveland.

And he needed it. Last year he struggled at the beginning of his major league debut but managed to dominate in Triple-A. Looks like the transition for him went well. So far. Read the rest of this entry »

5/13/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: Differences at the Dish

Shallow (4:50)

• Derek Holland – at LAA, at SEA 81% C, 60% Y!, 60% E ()
• Sean Manaea – at SEA, BOS 77% C, 56% Y!, 33% E
• Zack Wheeler – at ARI, LAA 75% C, 22% Y!, 18% E
• Jerad Eickhoff – at TEX, at PIT 74% C, 62% Y!, 30% E
• Chase Anderson – at SD, at CHC 63% C, 38% Y!, 39% E

Deep (11:15)

• Dan Straily – HOU, at LAD 50% C, 16% Y!, 12% E
• Kyle Freeland – at MIN, at CIN 47% C, 18% Y!, 16% E
• Hyun-Jin Ryu – at SF, MIA 41% C, 13% Y!, 8% E
• CC Sabathia – at KC, at TB 40% C, 13% Y!, 16% E

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Most of this report was done on Saturday, but there was one major piece of news on Sunday:

• Aroldis Chapman was placed on the 10-day disabled list with rotator cuff inflammation. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said that Chapman will rest for a minimum of two weeks, at which time his condition will be re-evaluated, and that Chapman is “probably looking at [missing] a minimum of a month if everything goes right.” Chapman has reportedly been experiencing discomfort in the shoulder since late April, and he had to be removed mid-inning in his last two outings due to ineffectiveness. In Chapman’s place, Dellin Betances will have an opportunity to prove his worth as a closer. Yankees president Randy Levine and Betances’s agent had a public spat in February over the pitcher’s arbitration hearing that determined his 2017 salary. Levine vocalized his opinion that Betances sought too much money for a non-closer. Whether or not he’s accruing saves, Betances is an elite reliever, and now he will have a chance to prove it, at least for a month. If Betances wasn’t already owned in all formats, he should be now. Meanwhile, Chapman should be held onto in all formats, because he is arguably the best reliever in baseball when healthy. The Bullpen Report will continue to provide updates on the situation as they become available.

Now for the notes from Saturday: Read the rest of this entry »