The Daily Grind: A Fresh New Week

Some claim a week starts on Monday. Some say Sunday. Since Saturday is my only off day, I’m inclined to vote for Sunday. Welcome to the first Grind of week… what week are we on again?

AGENDA

  1. Weather Reports
  2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  3. Hitters to Use
  4. SaberSim Says…

1. Weather Reports

Boston looks like it’s in trouble today, and the doubleheader at New York is also in jeopardy. At least the other doubleheader (in Washington D.C.) should be unaffected by cloud tears.

2. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

We’ve got 10 games early and four in the late afternoon. A few contests are fated to slip through the cracks today.

Main Slate: Mets staff ace Jacob deGrom will tilt at the ultra volatile Brewers. Consider his typical strikeout and run rates to be buffed today. Volatility for the (GPP) win! deGrom has looked about as good as I’ve ever seen him this season. He’s placed more emphasis on his superb slider.

Jake Arrieta is the other pricey arm. His season numbers have been marred by bad starts against the Red Sox and the Rockies. Guess where that latter game was played. Yes, there are some red flags in Arrieta’s profile. I still anticipate a full rebound today at St. Louis.

I’d say more about Luis Severino, but he’s going to be soggy. I like my pitchers like I like my bread – dry. “Like” is starting to not look like a word…

Jose Quintana has been strangely inconsistent this season. His best outings have come against the Royals. The Padres are like the Royals in that their offense is usually ineffectual. Perhaps Quintana can get back on track. He’s due for plenty of run support opposite Jered Weaver.

I’m not thrilled about reaching beyond the upper crust. Drew Pomeranz is doomed to postponement. Hector Santiago is going to turn pumpkin at any moment. Perhaps he can survive one more start. He faces the Indians. Ariel Miranda is a super high risk, super middling reward option versus Toronto. Maybe Kevin Gausman is back after handling the Nationals last week. Maybe he’ll flop again. I’m leaning stack against Gausman, even at Kauffman Stadium.

Stack Targets: Weaver, Chris Young, Gausman, Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers, R.A. Dickey, Adam Wainwright

Late Afternoon Slate: This tiny contest is headlined by Max Scherzer. Tasty. Most of the pitchers are some kind of viable. Masahiro Tanaka is usually solid but unspectacular. Robbie Ray is the polar opposite – you’ll probably get a gem or a dud. I’d bet on a gem versus Ivan Nova and the Buccos. Speaking of Nova, I don’t like his pitch-to-contact mentality at Chase Field.

I see you there Charlie Morton.

Stack Targets: Tim Adleman, Vince Velasquez

3. Hitters to Use

I often find myself using J.T. Realmuto due to his top-of-the-order role. You don’t get that very often from catchers. He’s only $2,700 today.

All of the White Stockings are viable today versus Weaver at the GSpot. Starting with Jose Abreu and ending with a bunch of guys you’ll really feel bad about rostering.

Eric Thames mania is fading, and he should be utterly ignored versus deGrom. Try to sneak a home run.

Daniel Murphy is so good at the bat swinging. He’s opposed by Velasquez tonight. A whole Nationals stack is viable. Perhaps even necessary.

Francisco Lindor is our favorite shortstop. We have decreed. The dismantlement of Santiago’s quality start machine falls to Lindor and friends.

4. SaberSim Says…

deGrom, Ray, Pomeranz, Trevor Bauer, and Quintana draw top billing from SaberSim. On the subject of Bauer, he’s on my “do not touch” list. His swinging strike rate is actually at its lowest since his 17 inning Indians debut in 2013. I’m not buying his 10.09 K/9 as remotely sustainable. He’s just a guy who allows too much hard contact.

SaberSim seems to like a certain ballpark. The top five bats are Joc Pederson, Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, Justin Turner, and Corey Seager. I’ll be honest, there ain’t no way Pederson can have a higher projection than the other four listed. However, they all cost $4,000 or more. Joc is just $3,600 while probably batting leadoff at Coors Field. The Coors game is actually one of those that has slipped through the main contest cracks. You’ll have to find a special time slot.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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southie
6 years ago

Maybe you’re only speaking in terms of DF pts but deGrom has been brutally wild and sports a 1.34 whip. He’s been better.