The Daily Grind: Bregman Bomb

When somebody I know follows me on Twitter, I usually say to myself, “oh hey, cool.” The exception is when they play in one of my fantasy leagues. Back up off me already.

AGENDA

1. About Time
2. Weather Reports
3. Perfect Lineup
4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
5. Hitters to Use
6. SaberSim Says…
7. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. About Time

Alex Bregman entered the 2017 season as one of the many popular sophomores. With a couple exceptions, i.e. Corey Seager and Trea Turner, they’re all struggling to produce. While everybody else in the league couldn’t help posting a personal record pace for home runs, Bregman sat on a goose egg right up until last night.

I have to wonder if his issues are linked to the scouting report. That swing on low and in pitches alone should be generating a 20 homer pace – at a minimum. But if pitchers just aren’t giving him anything in that quadrant, then it could explain the frustrating start. If only we had some way to tell where he’s getting pitched. Let’s investigate.

It seems the scouting report was always to work him low and away off the plate. Opponents have doubled down on the strategy, cutting his middle-in pitches dramatically. Oddly, he has seen more middle-middle pitches this season. I suspect that’s a small sample fluke. I checked to see if maybe he’s taking first pitch strikes down the middle, but that’s not the case. If anything, that’s when pitchers are most keen to fire low and away.

Incidentally, Bregman’s homer came the same day I placed him on the trade block in my home league. Good timing! One looks so much better than zero.

2. Weather Reports

San Diego could see some rain. It’s unlikely. Just don’t forget to fish for an updated forecast closer to game time.

3. Perfect Lineup

This perfect lineup is for the DraftKings All Day contest on Sunday. I’m sure you had most of these players because DUH!

Alex Meyer
Jeff Samardzija
Caleb Joseph
Chris Davis
Jason Kipnis
Nolan Arenado
Pat Valaika
Lonnie Chisenhall
Joey Rickard
Charlie Blackmon

Had you picked ’em all, you’d score 249.8 points. I don’t play DFS on Sundays so I can’t compare that against an actual GPP winner. I do know there’s a 0.0% chance I would have picked Valaika in anything larger than a one game scenario.

4. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

The Indians are doing their stupid 6:10pm ET start time. Hey Cleveland, at least move to the central time zone if you’re going to pull this nonsense. We’re missing Chris Archer versus Carlos Carrasco. Sad face.

Main Slate: These pitchers tho… Brandon McCarthy is the “pricey” name at only $9,100. I have a feeling I’m going to be leaving $3,000 or more on the table tonight. Anyway, back to McCarthy who has a legitimately solid matchup versus the Giants at AT&T Park. I figure six innings, three strikeouts, and a run. That’s something like 20 DK points if he also earns the win. Which he should opposite Matt Cain.

Sean Manaea is back, but I’d rather try his opponent Yovani Gallardo. His velocity has rebounded since joining the Mariners. While his results are decidedly middling, he could pitch well versus an equally middling Athletics offense.

Zack Wheeler is probably the most physically talented pitcher available. He may put together a strong outing versus the A.J. Pollock-less Diamondbacks. Wheeler has done a good job inducing grounders and strikeouts this season. Aside from a missing tic on the radar gun, it’s like he never missed two seasons.

Wheeler is scheduled for a Zack-off with Zack Godley. I spent yesterday highly recommending Godley as a streamer. His velocity has spiked to a couple mph (93.3 mph), and he’s placing more emphasis in his double-plus curve ball. The result is a stout 14.3 percent swinging strike rate with 75 percent ground balls through 12 innings. Yea, those numbers will regress, but they’re also a positive sign.

On second thought, let’s make sure Zack-off doesn’t catch on…

Luis Perdomo is basically the same pitcher as Godley, except he’s pitching at Petco Park against the Brewers. Perdomo has a bowling ball sinker and a double-plus slider. Through 28.1 innings, he’s induced 10.1 percent swinging strikes with 69.5 percent ground balls. The swinging strikes are a bit deceptive. His sinker is a pure pitch-to-contact offering. The slider is nigh unhittable. Batter know to put the ball in play early in the count.

Stack Targets: Mike Pelfrey, Mike Bolsinger, Cain, Bartolo Colon, Joe Musgrove

5. Hitters to Use

Jett Bandy is a fly ball hitter. He’s opposed by a ground ball pitcher. The ballpark is large, but it’s not inescapable. Just make sure he plays over Manny Pina.

I have a feeling first base is going to be very productive tonight. My two favorites are Freddie Freeman versus Bolsinger and Eric Thames against Perdomo. Petco Park helps lefty power.

I’m all over Jed Lowrie. He’s hitting a ton of fly balls with 40 percent hard contact. He bats in the heart of the Athletics lineup, and he rarely costs anything.

Jake Lamb is a low fastball masher. Wheeler is a low fastball thrower. Synergy?

I’m very tempted to stack Mariners tonight – Taylor Motter, Nellie Cruz, and Danny Valencia especially.

And yes, we’re go for Mike Trout versus the Pelf.

6. SaberSim Says…

Jesse Chavez, Musgrove, Wheeler, Gallardo, and Chase Anderson are SaberSim’s favorites. Chavez should have a super easy victory versus Pelfrey. I should have mentioned him above. Anderson should have it easy too. Just don’t be fooled by his sub-3.00 ERA. He’s still a 4.35 ERA guy – nothing has changed.

Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Joc Pederson, Jonathan Villar, and Michael Conforto are the top bats tonight. SaberSim has been very slow to react to poor performance from Pederson and Villar.

7. The Daily Grind Invitational

Fronski33 won last Friday with a combination of Dylan Bundy and eight productive hitters. Only Yadier Molina was a dud. Meanwhile, I need to figure out why I’m terrible at FanDuel – Fronski outscored me by over 100 points. The leaderboard is updated.

We’ll head to DraftKings for the challenging pitching slate.