2017 Second Base Tier Rankings – May Update
With six weeks of baseball in the books, those early-season samples are getting a bit larger. I usually post updates to this list at the beginning of each month, but the extra two weeks helped me compile rankings I’m more confident in, from a rest-of-season perspective. (Isn’t it crazy that we’re already nearly a quarter of the way through the regular season?) For reference, here’s my preseason rankings.
TIER ONE
I made the silly mistake of not giving Altuve his own tier to begin the season, a wrong which I am presently righting. The 27-year-old spent the last six weeks doing typical Jose Altuve things, being a solid five-category contributor with no clear holes in his fantasy game. He’s on pace for about 25 homers and 40 steals, and he’s flirting with a .300 average despite posting a career high 17.2% strikeout rate.
If you need to nitpick, that K-rate is where you’d want to do it, but I’m not that worried. Altuve’s whiff rate is only up slightly — from last year’s 6.7% to 8.2% — and he’s seeing a freakishly high number of first-pitch strikes (68.7%; league-average is about 58%). The strikeouts will come down, and the average will probably pop back up a bit.
What’s so impressive about Altuve isn’t just that he’s best second baseman in fantasy, it’s that he’s so consistent in maintaining that top spot. He truly does deserve his own tier.
TIER TWO
If you can’t have Altuve, second base is stacked with near-elite options. Cano is a four-category stud with a ceiling capped only by his lack of speed. Murphy is well on his way to proving that 2016 actually wasn’t a fluke, as he’s nearly maintained his power spike while continuing to hit well over .300. I thought Segura might regress a bit in Seattle, but nope, as it turns out he’s just really good at baseball now.
I feel great about singing Carpenter’s praises all offseason, because he’s been every bit as good as I expected. He’s already got eight bombs, and he’s currently the top 2B in many OBP formats, due to his absolutely bonkers .410 on-base percentage. Dozier is still Dozier, a four-category guy who unfortunately takes a bite out of your AVG.
I didn’t really know what to do with Turner. He doesn’t deserve to be in this tier based on his performance so far this season, but if he can put it all together, his fantasy upside is probably higher than any 2B not named Altuve. He’s staying here for now.
TIER THREE
It sure seems like Castro’s 2016 power spike was far from a fluke. The 27-year-old averaged just over 10 home runs in his six seasons with the Cubs, then suddenly swatted 21 bombs last year. He’s already got seven this year, with isolated power sitting at an even .200. This is probably a good time to mention that he’s hitting .343 — a number which is sure to drop, but indicates just how hot he is right now.
I was concerned about Villar coming into 2016, and now that he’s on pace for 200+ strikeouts, I feel validated for being a bit down on him. He’s just not getting on base enough to be an elite stolen-base threat like he was last year, but he’s still a solid four-category fantasy contributor.
Gyorko is playing the best baseball of his career right now, and it’s not even close. He won’t maintain a .333/.390/620 slash all year, but he’s well on his way to a second straight 30-homer season. Hernandez is one of the most pleasant surprises of 2017 so far, as he’s scoring runs by the truckload, thanks to his near-.400 OBP out of the leadoff spot. The power isn’t real, but everything else seems to be legit.
Gordon is a one-trick pony, but he has more steals than any other 2B, which should surprise absolutely no one. Ramirez doesn’t wow you in any one way, but he quietly chips away at all five categories. Kinsler turns 35 next month, and has to decline eventually, but it’s going to take more than a subpar 30-game sample to sour me on a guy who’s been a consistent fantasy contributor for the last decade.
TIER FOUR
- Jonathan Schoop
- Javier Baez
- Dustin Pedroia
- Neil Walker
- Brandon Drury
- DJ LeMahieu
- Rougned Odor
- Jason Kipnis
- Brad Miller
- Josh Harrison
- Jose Peraza
- Yangervis Solarte
This is where I stop being comfortable with having one of these guys as my mixed-league starting 2B. This is a large tier, but I honestly don’t see much value differential between Schoop and Solarte, or Baez and Peraza. The players in this tier are fine options for AL/NL-only leagues, or MI slots in mixers.
TIER FIVE
- Ben Zobrist
- Logan Forsythe (DL)
- Brandon Phillips
- Jed Lowrie
- Joe Panik
- Kolten Wong
- Ryan Schimpf
- Devon Travis
- Howie Kendrick (DL)
Bench pieces and streaming options.
TIER SIX
- Steve Pearce
- Adam Rosales
- Chris Taylor
- Scooter Gennett
- Darwin Barney
- Yolmer Sanchez
- Whit Merrifield
- Cory Spangenberg
- Tyler Saladino
- Jace Peterson
- Danny Espinosa
I was going to put Espinosa in a Tier Seven all by himself (I used to do this with Dan Uggla all the time, it was great fun), because Espinosa with a bat in his hands is turning into one of baseball’s best unintentional comedies. In fact, from 4/20-5/13, Espinosa managed to go a Eugenio Velez-esque 1-for-56 with 21 strikeouts. I’ll type that again, and also italicize it so that you know it wasn’t a typo: 1-for-56 with 21 strikeouts!
However, Espinosa both homered and drew a walk yesterday, while only striking out one time! In the whole game! Amazing. This one-game sample was so good that it temporarily vaulted Espinosa back into the same echelon as the Tyler Saladinos and Jace Petersons of the world. For now.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
What tier would Owings, newly eligible in some places, slot into?
I guess I need to pay more attention to the D-backs, because I had no idea he’d played 2B in six games already. I’m not buying the power, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he maintains a solid AVG with another 15-20 steals. I think I’d have him somewhere in Tier Four. Probably the upper half.
Ian Happ?
Is he eligible at second in most leagues? ESPN he isn’t, and even if he stays in the majors it’s going to take him a looong time to get to ten appearances at 2B, since he’s competing for time there with Zobrist and Baez.
I can’t imagine Happ being an option for anyone in a re-draft. Baez has a hard enough time getting regular at-bats. I can’t imagine Happ getting enough to be rosterable. I could see someone being traded, but until then…
Pretty sure he’s only up for a few games, at least for now
The Odor ranking makes me wanna throw up…so annoyed I gave him a three year contract in a keeper league.
How do you think the Rangers feel about the extension they gave him?
I still don’t think the extension was a bad idea for the Rangers as a real-life baseball team, seeing as Odor’s only 23 years old. I just think it’s a bit silly to be rolling the dice on him in redraft fantasy leagues when there’s so many strong options at 2B.
Odor is a much worse real baseball player than fantasy baseball player because he draws almost no walks and is not a good defender.
He’s also a 23-year-old kid, and $50 mill over six years is not that big of an investment for a Major League Baseball team.
He’s still in line with his yearly numbers, patience.
This strikes me as a pretty silly Rougned Odor ranking, unless you’re playing in a batting AVG-only league.
I didn’t drop him very far from where I had him in the preseason, at the end of Tier Three. I’m just not that high on him in general. He’s currently fighting a losing battle against the Mendoza Line, and he has a sub-.300 career OBP. He also gets caught stealing so frequently that he really shouldn’t be running ever.
Second base is a deep enough position to not have to put up with those warts, in my opinion.
The Depth Charts projections for Odor are calling for a .264 AVG from him ROS, with 21HRs, 62Rs, 68RBIs, and 11SBs. That’s a much worse AVG than the preseason projections, but not much worse for all of the counting stats. Looking deeper at his peripherals, his walks are up from last year, and his strikeouts are down, so there’s no reason to expect him to continue to bat around .200, unless you think he’s likely to run a .211 BABIP for the rest of the year. What do you think you’re seeing that the projections are not?
As a struggling Peraza owner, is there anything that points to better things to come? His .243/.279/.300 slash with just eight steals (and none in over a week) turns my stomach.
I only dropped him a couple spots from where I had him in the preseason (from mid-4th tier to back end of 4th). Not a big fan. I wrote this in January: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/everyone-is-paying-too-much-for-jose-peraza/
No, he is a bad hitter and nobody has ever thought he would turn into a good hitter.
Why is it a given that Hernandez’s power isn’t real? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cesar-hernandez-and-the-short-hitter-power-struggle/
The guy went on a mini home run binge and then has two extra base hits in the 2+ weeks since. He *is* hitting more fly balls, but he still has the 15th worst FB% in baseball and the 7th worst hard hit %. Most of the guys around him on those leaderboards have a HR/FB% in the single digits, while Hernandez is near 14%.
Guy has a lot of value, but if I were asked to bet I’d put my money on his current HR/FB rate being much higher than it’s going to be when all’s said and done.
I read that and it’s definitely interesting, but in the month since Dave posted that article, Cesar hit .292/.364/.365 (.073 ISO), with 24 singles, two doubles, one triple and one homer.
Umm I would be careful with Baez, yes his numbers are a bit better than Espinosa but his swinging strike percentage is higher and the O-swing% is 2nd worst in baseball next to Corey Dickerson. While this is the worst Espinosa will look this season (probably), I don’t know if it is going to last with Baez(there was a reason for the Espinosa comps with Baez). As for Espinosa he is 68th in the league in O-swing% right above Rizzo, and his Z-swing% is 9th in the league, he probably should be a sleeper(or at least worth watching with one eye).
Baez had a slow start this season, but he’s been crushing the ball for the last 2+ weeks. He’s also 24 years old. What do you mean by “be careful with Baez” anyway? I have him in Tier Four, I’m not exactly singing his praises here.
Espinosa is 30, and he’s literally a one-category fantasy contributor.
When a player has an almost 50% O-swing it is not a good thing, especially when his SwStr percentage is the tops in baseball at 20.4 and he wasn’t there a couple weeks ago when I last checked, which tells me that while unless he is Vlad Guerrero, his success is probably unsustainable. While Espinosa the opposite where his O-swing rate it decent and his Z-swing rate is high which means that his time is off or has to make a mechanical adjustment and having watched him I would say is timing was off, which by the way he hit the ball on Saturday and the homerun on Sunday he probably got it back(again probably). I am not saying your rankings are wrong because Espinosa has been awful at the plate and while Baez hasn’t been great, he has turned it on the past couple weeks, just be careful with him because he could become abysmal really quick.
Obligatory mention that thanks to that goofy Cubs sacrifice bunt defense where Rizzo plays in and the 2b (either Zobrist or Baez) holds the runner on, Anthony Rizzo officially has 3 appearances at 2b this year because the rules require that he not wear a 1b mitt on that play. If they keep defending it that way, he might have 2b eligibility in some leagues by mid-season
Holy crap, that’s actually true. What an awesome fun fact.
That would be hilarious. Now if he could only hit the ball at some point this year, that’d be great. He’s been pretty trash to start things off
thanks scott! would you put tim beckham in tier 5 or 6?
Tier Five. I could see using him as a bench piece or streaming option.
these are awesome, can’t wait for the other positional tiers to be released!
I agree. Nice to see some of the fliers I took in the draft, rise on this list, i.e. Gyorko, Castro and Hernandez.
Why so low on Kipnis?
I’m not exactly a Kolten Wong fan, but he has hit much better recently, and he has as good a range as any second-baseman, and makes terrific plays. So I was surprised to see him in tier 5. Probably deserves to be in 4.
I’d have kept Villar in tier 2. He has outearned Dozier on the year and the K rate is down to 22% in May. Looks more like a slow start than some big decline. OBP in May is .333 and that is with a below career average BABIP for the month.
Despite his awful start, & currently hitting .222, Villar ranks 7th for 2B in 5 x 5. Any increase in AVG/BB rate will likely lead to more steals. I don’t know how you could have him outside of the top 5.
If you aren’t buying his power, it seems odd to me that you’d have Hernandez and Gordon even in the same tier, nevermind having Hernandez over 60 steal Gordon. Gordon is going to have a 30 steal advantage…
It tough call but you got it right with Espinosa. Nobody deserves to be a tier below Jace Peterson…especially after hitting a HR.
LeMahieu seems a tier low and Drury a tier too high. I don’t see how the 5 extra HRs Drury gets the rest of the season outweigh the 5 extra SBs, much better batting average, and more runs + RBIs that LeMahieu should get. The only justification I can see is if you think Drury keeps up his .400 BABIP.
In OBP leagues do you have Dozier in the top 5 or possibly 6th? Thanks Scott!