The HR/FB Rate Surgers

Last week, I discussed the early Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event) leaders and laggards from the Statcast leaderboard. Let’s continue our look at the metric, this time using my new Statcast fueled xHR/FB rate equation to identify the hitters whose xHR/FB rates are significantly higher than their actual HR/FB rates. The gap suggests these hitters could enjoy an imminent surge in home run power.

Please note that I introduced two versions of my xHR/FB rate equation — one ignoring batter handedness and park effects, and one accounting for both. Because the data is not easily accessible, I’m going to be using the version that ignores both factors. Because we’re looking at the extreme differences here, it won’t matter much. But you could mentally make minor adjustments for home park and handedness.

I’ve only included the fantasy relevant hitters, as usual.

Nick Castellanos. Not only does he own a pristine batted ball profile that should allow him to sustain an inflated BABIP, but his power is blossoming. A drop in fly ball rate and increase in strikeout rate has hidden his gains, along with a single digit HR/FB rate. The swings and misses are certainly an issue and J.D. Martinez’s return means he could be dropped in the order soon. But there’s enormous offensive upside here and it shouldn’t cost you much to acquire him.

Is Lonnie Chisenhall another launch angle increaser? His FB% sits at a career high and his Brls/BBE has jumped by more than four times since last year. But his results haven’t differed much. Perhaps a nice AL-Only target if in need of an OFer.

Mitch Moreland has performed as well as hoped in Boston except for a lack of home run power. His Brls/BBE, though, suggests that the homers are coming. He’s also nearly doubled his walk rate, so he shouldn’t worry about losing his job to Sam Travis anytime soon, who owns just a .315 wOBA at Triple-A.

After enjoying a power surge in 2015 and a further spike in 2016, it might be easy to believe that Justin Turner’s slow start in the power department proves the last two seasons have been rather fluky. But his Brls/BBE is perfectly healthy and right in line with his average the last two seasons. His batted ball profile is pristine (though obviously his .400+ BABIP is going to decline), while he has cut down on his strikeouts. He’s an excellent acquisition target from an owner hoping for more than just an empty batting average.

Yes, the ankle most likely hampered Gregory Bird’s swing, power, and performance. But even with the injury, he still barreled the ball up at a respectable rate that equates to a double digit HR/FB rate. He should be back soon and if he was dropped in your league, I’d absolutely scoop him up. He’s perfectly suited for Yankee Stadium.

Well gosh darn, Matt Davidson is almost literally Joey Gallo, but without the fanfare. Sure, he’s sporting a worse walk rate, but the strikeout rate is better (though not terribly difficult given Gallo’s trouble making contact). Like Gallo, Davidson also hits a ton of fly balls, making the most of the times he does make contact. Even batting .227, he’s still got an acceptable .340 wOBA. While his Brls/BBE level is unsustainable, it does support the fact that he owns serious power and should continuing as a 1 1/2 category contributor.

Yoenis Cespedes‘ HR/FB rate is right where he has been the last couple of years, so it’s more likely his Brls/BBE declines than his HR/FB rises. But he’s at literally double his Brls/BBE mark as last year, so even at 31, his power remains as strong as ever.