I updated my starting pitcher rankings in the latest update to our group rankings and there were plenty of movers and shakers, so I’m just going to cover a whole bunch of them here. I’ll be covering the big risers in this first piece, then a separate one for the fallers. There won’t be any sort of unifying theme among the pitchers mentioned, just some free-form stuff. Sound alright? Let’s do it.

Jacob deGrom (+9 spots to SP10): I’ve been eyeing deGrom all offseason to make sure the ulnar surgery recovery was progressing as expected. All along we were told it wouldn’t cause any major issues and it has certainly played out that way thus far. His velocity is there and he has a 17:2 K/BB ratio in 15.3 spring innings. His performance hasn’t gone unnoticed and paired with concerns for some others originally slotted just ahead of him (David Price and Carlos Carrasco), he’s shooting up draft boards.

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My first attempt at making bold predictions (2015) was rather aimless. My second attempt (2016) was a little more focused and a little more successful, with my baby boo Jose Ramirez finally making good on his promise (and redeeming my year-too-early prediction for him in 2015). This year, I’ve earnestly attempted to make bold predictions that spawned from research. In other words, they’re not bold for the sake of being bold — not that those kinds of predictions can’t be fueled by research, but, well, you know. Anyway, you don’t care about any of this. Let’s get to the goods.

For those keeping score at home: five predictions apiece for hitters and pitchers, in alternating order.

1) Alex Dickerson is a top-30 outfielder.

Original post from September. The premise is simple: keep an outfield job and sustain his place discipline gains. With prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot and speedster Travis Jankowski fighting for playing time, Dickerson seems to have fallen to the wayside. I’m not sure why; he projects to be the Padres’ 4th-best hitter by wOBA and best-hitting outfielder by more than 30 points. Accordingly, the projection systems must believe in his plate discipline gains — and they do. The doubters will doubt, but the gains emerged in 2016 prior to his promotion. In a full season’s work, he looks like a poor man’s outfielding Kyle Seager: 20 home runs, 10 steals, a .270 batting average. As the 70th outfielder off National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft boards, it’ll cost you virtually nothing to find out.

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1. A.J. Pollock receives first-place MVP votes

Pollock put together a season for the ages in 2015. In 157 games and 673 plate appearances, he slashed .315/.367/.498 with a .371 wOBA and 131 wRC+. He hit 20 home runs, scored 111 runs, and stole 39 bases in 46 attempts. That offense, combined with his elite center field defense and base-running, netted him 6.5 WAR ­­­— fifth-best total in the National League. Pollock’s 2015 production wasn’t a fluke: in 75 games and 287 plate appearances the previous season, he hit a similar .302/.353/.498 with a .372 wOBA and 134 wRC+. 2016, however, was a lost season for Pollock, who missed most of the year due to a broken elbow. Entering 2017, he’s only 29 years old and he appears to be healthy. Assuming good health, he’s certainly capable of putting up MVP numbers.

2. Aledmys Diaz has a better offensive season than Trea Turner

Much was made of Turner’s spectacular big league debut in 2016, and rightfully so. The rookie slashed .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs and 33 steals in just 73 games and 324 plate appearances. Turner’s performance, however, was buoyed by an unsustainable .388 BABIP. While his skill set lends itself to higher-than-average BABIP’s, it’s expected to land somewhere closer to .350 in 2017, bringing his likely batting average down below .300. What’s more, his minor league track record suggests that he may not crack 15 home runs all year, despite nearly reaching that total in half a season like he did in 2016. Turner, 23, is one of the most exciting fantasy players around, especially since he’s eligible at shortstop, second base, and outfield. However, because substantial regression is expected, there’s another young shortstop in St. Louis who could easily be the superior offensive weapon in 2017 and beyond. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s bold prediction season! Josh Shepardson kicked off the party last Friday. I always find an excuse to write two of these posts. Last year, I supplied 10 Timid Predictions to complement my bold choices. For reasons that still escape my understanding, the timid predictions did not go over well. This year, I’ll take a more traditional approach, splitting my hot takes into positive and negative editions. Which do you think I’ll cover today?

With further ski doo…

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Earlier in the offseason, I examined out how reported Hit tool grades compared to actual MLB batting averages. I called the process a “mess” but figured it had some value. When I implemented the formula on MLB.com’s 2017 grades, commenters had the following to say about the projected batting average values:

“… not enough differentiation there in my opinion”
“… adjust your outputs to create more difference..”
“… hoping the table would be more conclusive…”
“…way too tightly grouped to the mean…”
“…it’s better to have no projection than to project everyone to be average…”
“… regressing too much to the mean…”
“… hit tool grades should be ignored…”
“…hit tool is undervalued in prospect analysis…”

I have no issue with the hit values being regressed to the mean. What I do have a problem with is if the hit tool is not measuring the correct factors. I needed to find out if reported hit grades provide any value. The following is a detailed look at how the hit tool is graded and how it fails to predict one simple factor, a hitter’s ability to get hits.

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It’s Pod’s Picks and Pans time! Last week, we rolled out our updated RotoGraphs positional rankings, so as usual, it’s time to discuss the players I’m in most disagreement on. As suggested by a commenter last year, I’m using the LN function to determine the difference between my rank and the consensus. This method better accounts for the fact that there’s a larger difference in value between a hitter ranked 2nd versus 3rd than one ranked 20th versus 21st.

I’ll start with catchers. Pod’s Picks will only include hitters in my top 24, while Pod’s Pans will only include hitters in the consensus top 24. Keep in mind I removed my ranking from the average and recalculated the average from the Rankings Update.

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Over the last week, I’ve participated in three drafts for similar 12-team keeper leagues. They all share the ability to keep as many players as you want at an escalating dollar cost. One of those leagues is FanGraphs Staff Two on ottoneu. This will be my fourth season with my fellow staffers. The others are my home league (11th season) and my college league (sixth seasons). In other words, these are long standing, fully mature leagues.

In ottoneu, player costs increase by $2 every year plus the results of an arbitration period. In short, other teams get $25 to allocate toward other rosters – maximum of $3, minimum $1 per team. For example, my $7 Charlie Blackmon garnered $5 of allocations for a total cost of $12 to keep. The other two leagues use a set of keeper rules I derived long ago. We use previous draft price + $7.

In time, I’ve slowly developed a strategy I call Stars and Scrubs and Keepers. It’s not so much a new technique as it is an explanation. Stars and Scrubs is a particularly potent approach in these leagues with uncapped keeper totals.

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Alas, it’s finally time to wrap up the Pod vs Steamer Projections series, which pitted my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in several fantasy categories, discussing which players I’m significantly more bullish and bearish on. Last week, I identified 13 pitchers I was far more bullish on than Steamer for ERA. In doing this exercise, I realized I was actually forecasting lower ERAs for the majority of the pitchers we both projected. So now turning to the pitchers I forecasted a higher ERA for, there was literally only 21 to choose from, most of which were within 0.10 runs of each other, which is, like, nothing. But here are seven fantasy relevant pitchers I’m a bit more bearish on than Steamer.

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3/19/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @almelchiorBB
• @paulkastava

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Jason Kipnis out 4-5 more weeks (3:00)
• Michael Brantley joining CLE Mon
• Carlos Carrasco to pitch in minors gm Mon
• Cody Anderson TJ surgery
• Drew Pomeranz leaves with triceps tightness (16:00)
• J.D. Martinez has a foot issue, seeking 2nd opinion (19:20)
• Martin Prado hamstring strain, out at least April (28:00)

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If you’re subscribed to any type of baseball Twitter accounts or apps (and you probably are) you’ve noticed Adam Rosales keeps doing things and his name continues to pop up. Don’t worry. Not only is this spring training, but it’s Adam Rosales.

No offense, but the guy has well, no offense.

Last season he was making more plate appearances, but he’s back with Oakland and there is a lot of foul territory at O.co. His flyball rate has increased, but don’t get excited on his spring numbers…at least not yet.

On the Agenda

1. Chris Owings…so hot right now
2. Finding Nimmo
3. J.D. Martinez

Chris Owings…so hot right now

via GIPHY

This guy you can get a little excited about.

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