Brad Johnson’s 10 Bold Predictions – Positive Edition

It’s bold prediction season! Josh Shepardson kicked off the party last Friday. I always find an excuse to write two of these posts. Last year, I supplied 10 Timid Predictions to complement my bold choices. For reasons that still escape my understanding, the timid predictions did not go over well. This year, I’ll take a more traditional approach, splitting my hot takes into positive and negative editions. Which do you think I’ll cover today?

With further ski doo…

1. Travis Jankowski leads baseball in steals

Earlier in the offseason, there was some uncertainty as to Jankowski’s role with the Padres. The presence of sparkly names like Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, and Alex Dickerson left one to wonder if Jankowski might get stuck as the fourth outfielder. By all accounts he deserves to start. With Dickerson and Margot banged up, Jankowski’s role appears secure.

The lefty swinger has double-plus outfield defense with potentially elite upside. While his bat hasn’t wowed at the major league level, his batted ball profile looked like a left-handed, poor man’s DJ LeMahieu last season. He hit a ton of ground balls and line drives to the opposite field. When he does pull the ball in the air, his swing is reminiscent of Shane Victorino with the same sneaky pop.

The 26 percent strikeout rate is concerning. However, it’s worth noting that he basically skipped Triple-A where he had an 8.8 percent strikeout rate in a small sample. He posted a 12.5 percent strikeout rate in a decent sized Double-A sample. The potential is there for a LOT more contact. If that happens, a LeMahieu-ian batting average and 50 plus steals are within reach. The Pads love to run.

2. Cesar Hernandez steals 40 bases

Sticking with the stolen base theme, I foresee big things for Hernandez this season. One of the fastest athletes in the majors, Hernandez has proven maladroit on the bases. He attempted 30 steals last season but succeeded in only 17 attempts. Hernandez is reportedly working on his running game in the hopes of improving upon his breakout 2016. A 30 steal season would be a moral victory. Forty steals is BOLD.

3. Tommy Joseph AND Greg Bird hit at least 30 home runs

Joseph and Bird are available for pennies in most fantasy leagues. I recently snagged ’em both during dollar days. And as I outlined earlier in the offseason, they’re built for 40 home runs. So why boldly predict only 30 homers for both when I see upside for 40 individually? Neither is guaranteed full time action, and injuries happen. Joseph’s already sidelined with a bruised hand. Bird missed all of 2016. Either slugger could turn pumpkin (again).

When I set these predictions, I shoot for about a 10 percent chance of being right. I’m very confident one of these guys will reach 30 homers. It’s far less certain they can both accomplish the feat.

4. Nolan Arenado will break roto scoring with at least 50 home runs and 150 RBI

The Rockies have been plagued by injuries this spring and yet their lineup remains one of the most potent in baseball. Between the high OBP hitters ahead of him, Coors Field, and plenty of lineup “protection,” Arenado is just a little luck away from supplying historic counting stats. He has two straight seasons in the 40-130 club. Let’s see if he can break that plateau. Arenado quietly improved his plate discipline last season. I’m a sucker for stars who show signs of continued improvement. So many reach their ceiling then dwindle into oblivion (oh, hello there Jason Heyward).

5. Maikel Franco Edwin Encarnacions

Last spring, one of my bold predictions involved Franco transforming into Edwin Encarnacion. I haven’t cooled on that prediction. Like when I predicted Mark Trumbo to hit the most home runs… in 2015… my Franco pick may have been a year too early.

Here’s how this works. In his current incarnation, Franco has Encarnacion’s strikeout rate and raw power. However, he doesn’t tap into the game power at the same rate, nor does he walk. As Franco continues to adjust to major league pitching, I expect/hope he’ll put together more hot streaks. Those will incentive pitchers to avoid the strike zone, amping the walk rate. While Franco is unlikely to exceed a 10 percent walk rate, something like 8% BB%, 16% K%, 35 HR, and 100 RBI would be a victory.

6. Marcus Stroman leads the league in wins

Stroman won just nine of 19 decisions for a very good Blue Jays squad last year. Dig a little deeper and you’ll find cause for optimism. His stuff improved as the season went on – not surprising given that he lost most of 2015 to a knee injury. He also tallied 204 innings – 11th most in baseball. With an ace-like 220 inning season, he could find his way to 20 wins. Teammate J.A. Happ did it in only 195 innings.

For the record, I’m counting this as correct if he finishes top five in wins. I just wanted a snazzier headline.

7. Yu Darvish adds a ninth pitch and wins the Cy Young

Darvish regularly throws eight different pitches. And, aside from his changeup, they’re all very good. His splitter vanished in 2016, but he’s reportedly looking to utilize it once again this season. I’m predicting a ninth offering appears on his Brooks Baseball page. He’s not left with many options based on their pitch classifications. Basically a screwball or a knuckler. On second though, I best not constrain myself to Brooks…

The righty is in a contract year which means the Rangers may be a little more aggressive about milking everything they can out of his golden arm. Darvish posted a robust 11.84 K/9 to go with 2.78 BB/9. A sub-3.00 ERA and 18 to 20 wins should put him within shouting distance of the Cy.

8. Addison Reed finishes top five in saves

We’ve been hearing all winter that Jeurys Familia would receive some kind of suspension – probably 30 days – as punishment for domestic abuse. Per reporting earlier this morning, that decision will come in the near future. If/when Familia is forcibly sidelined, Reed will have an opportunity to step into the ninth inning. Among the fans, Reed is not associated with blowing the Mets playoff chances two seasons in a row. And while Familia is an easy top 20 reliever, Reed is better still.

If he’s pitching anything like he was in 2016, Terry Collins is going to find it very difficult to demote him when Familia returns. Meanwhile, the Mets high quality rotation and mediocre offense produced the most save chances last season. It’s basically the same club this year.

9. Sean Doolittle saves 30

Ryan Madson is the Athletics closer… for now. Doolittle was his old self upon recovering from injury last season. He averaged a career best 94.8 mph with his fastball while inducing his usual share of whiffs and pop ups. As more and more hitters adopt a fly ball oriented swing, Doolittle and other pitchers like him are going to become more effective. Doolittle’s doubly difficult because he hides the ball with his glove, making his “rising” fastball hard to track.

10. Adam Wainwright returns to roto relevance

Wainwright has put together a very nice career. After missing almost all of 2015, Wainwright struggled out of the gate last season. And while he recovered later in the year with a few solid streaks, he was not the pitcher who posted a sub-3.00 ERA in four of five seasons from 2009 through 2014. Wainwright has always lived and died with his elite curve ball. The pitch lost some of its effectiveness last year, hence the 4.62 ERA. Waino claims to have rediscovered the grip that made his curveball special. Presumably, he fished it out of the Amazon with his buddy Roy Halladay.