Tipping Pitches: SP Risers in My Latest Rankings

I updated my starting pitcher rankings in the latest update to our group rankings and there were plenty of movers and shakers, so I’m just going to cover a whole bunch of them here. I’ll be covering the big risers in this first piece, then a separate one for the fallers. There won’t be any sort of unifying theme among the pitchers mentioned, just some free-form stuff. Sound alright? Let’s do it.

Jacob deGrom (+9 spots to SP10): I’ve been eyeing deGrom all offseason to make sure the ulnar surgery recovery was progressing as expected. All along we were told it wouldn’t cause any major issues and it has certainly played out that way thus far. His velocity is there and he has a 17:2 K/BB ratio in 15.3 spring innings. His performance hasn’t gone unnoticed and paired with concerns for some others originally slotted just ahead of him (David Price and Carlos Carrasco), he’s shooting up draft boards.

Gerrit Cole (+8 to SP19): Unlike deGrom, Cole didn’t have surgery, but a balky elbow curbed his 2016 both in results and volume of innings which cast a shadow over him heading into draft season. Like deGrom, he’s popping the radar gun at the mid-90s we expect of him (97 mph just a couple days ago) with solid results (5:1 K/BB in 7 IP). Risky, but the upside is rich.

Carlos Martinez (+4 to SP20): A lot of these moves had intent behind them as I was looking to move them up or down after doing some additional research, talking about him with colleagues, and/or simply not feeling good about my initial ranking. Martinez was more of an incidental move. Don’t take that to mean I don’t stand by it, just that it was something that occurred during the shuffling all of the intentional moves. The 25-year old is panning out. He is on the path to ace-dom.

Jameson Taillon (+26 to SP36): This was just a bad initial ranking. I sold him short at SP62 initially so I knew this was going to be a big mover, especially after discussing him with Eno on a recent pod. I was a huge fan of Taillon as a prospect, though admittedly entered 2016 needing to see something after two completely missed seasons to injury (TJ and hernia). Taillon isn’t a major strikeout asset presently, but his changeup is evolving and if he can generate more swings-and-misses with it, we could easily see a strikeout mark of 8.0 or better (22-23% rate).

Matt Shoemaker (+17 to SP41): Another planned wait-and-see, I wanted to get a sense of how Shoemaker was going to return from being hit in the head by a line drive last September. He has 18 strikeouts and a 4.5 K/BB ratio in 13 spring innings, but more importantly, he feels “pretty normal” back out on the mound. The NFBC market still has him down as SP60 and even at his highest, he’s usually going after SP40.

Drew Pomeranz (+13 to SP61): This was before his triceps tightness over the weekend, but the latest on that suggests it was a mechanical issue that can be remedied his next time out. Health is a major concern with Pomeranz, so I’m probably sliding him back a few picks even with the relatively positive news in regarding the triceps.

Drew Smyly (+12 to SP67): I realized I am too low on Smyly given his skills. Yes, there’s major injury risk, but you can say that of many guys so docking him more than others is wrong. I’m still low relative to my peers here (4th of 6 in SP rankings) and at large (57th in consensus at FantasyPros), but I’m keeping a closer eye on him now. His move to Seattle should help, too, even if only because of the home parks in AL West vs. AL East.

Ervin Santana (+23 to SP68): Once you get about 35 or so deep into the SP ranks, there are large groupings the rest of the way and Big Erv just wound up on the lower end of his group when I think he’s worth being on the higher end. His “upside” isn’t massive, but has a high, sturdy floor. While he’s unlikely to substantially out-earn his draft cost, he’s a good bet for a solid 180 innings. The reason these groupings are thick is because who you take really depends on the construction of your rotation ahead of them. If you’ve rostered more upside in the vein of James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, and Garrett Richards, then a stable arm like Santana is a great fit.

Francisco Liriano (+19 to SP73): When you’re ranking 125 or so arms, you don’t always get to critically analyze each one and so some guys just kinda get slotted in. That was the case with Liriano. I acknowledged keeping an eye on him in my ADP analysis piece back in January, but then didn’t follow through with a ranking that basically said “do not draft”. Hell, SP73 might even still be too low, but that goes back to the clustering thing. He’s now in a cluster where he could realistically go from 50 to 80 without it being crazy.

Charlie Morton (+37 to SP87): Another bad ranking that needed fixing as opposed to any change in opinion on him. Morton only threw 17 innings last year, but had velocity and strikeout gains that didn’t go unnoticed. The velocity has continued this spring with his new team, the Houston Astros. He’s an easy endgame gamble if you’re looking for some overlooked upside. For more, check out my player cap on his profile page.

OTHERS: Eduardo Rodriguez (+29 to SP93; knee and roster spot were concerns, but the outlook on both has greatly improved), Scott Kazmir** (+43 to SP94; how the hell did I rank him 137th initially?!), and Matt Boyd (+14 to SP95; intriguing lefty battling hard for the fifth starter’s role in Detroit)

Anyone skyrocketing up your board as you do more research or see something within their spring numbers?

**OK, after seeing the comments it seems Kazmir’s move was dumb. I think I might’ve mixed Kaz with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is actually pitching in spring games. Either way, I goofed. Even at SP94, Kaz is too high.