Archive for February, 2017

Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Moore & More

Matt Moore’s New Cutter

I have seen quite a bit of love for Matt Moore this preseason linking an improvement with the Giants to reintroducing his cutter. After diving quickly into his profile, I found no reason to be optimistic.

The decision that Moore changed didn’t come from his ERA which was exactly 4.08 with both the Rays and Giants. His FIP dropping one point (4.51 to 3.53) was the reason for optimism. His xFIP (4.70 to 4.28) and SIERA (4.45 to 4.35) also dropped, but not as much. His peripheral stats were a mixed bag with his strikeout rate (7.6 K/9 to 9.1 K/9) and walk rate (2.8 BB/9 to 4.2 BB/9) both jumping while his HR/9 halved (1.4 to 0.7 HR/9).

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Remember These Guys? – In Praise of Sim Leagues

Here at RotoGraphs, we mostly write about traditional fantasy leagues. It’s in the name of the site – ‘Roto’ Graphs. Somehow, the term roto has come to stand in for not only a popular scoring method, but all typical fantasy formats. I’ve had the etymology explained to me, and it doesn’t make a damned lick of sense.

We also spend a fair amount of time discussing ottoneu. Surprise! It’s our own personal contribution to the fantasy baseball panoply. At it’s best, ottoneu is more than a keeper league but not as onerous as a true dynasty format. We like it, and we tell you about it. During the season, we’ll also cover Daily Fantasy (aka DFS). Brandon Warne’s known to spill a word or three about scoresheet baseball.

Today, let’s talk about sim leagues.

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The 2017 Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rate Downsiders

Nearly a month and a half ago, I shared the names of six starting pitchers who my old xK% metric suggested had the most strikeout rate upside this season, assuming their equation components remained unchanged. I then got sidetracked, introduced an updated version of the equation with new component coefficients and then even played around with incorporating CH% (changeup percentage) into an even newer version of the equation. So I never actually got around to the list of starting pitchers with strikeout rate downside. It’s now time to share those names with you very patient people.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 428 – Pitcher Rankings Breakdown

2/17/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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 Leading Off: Question of the Day

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section: SP Ranks

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 17th, 2017

Chat transcript is below!

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February Rankings – Shortstops

We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Key:

  • AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
  • AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
  • SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

Previous rankings:

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2017 Ottoneu FGPts Rankings: 2B/SS

Last Friday we kicked off our ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Justin Vibber, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).

Prior Rankings: C/1B/3B

Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value Read the rest of this entry »


Eno’s 2017 Pitcher Ranks

I may have taken a step back from RotoGraphs, but I haven’t stopped playing fantasy baseball, and I have to take a look at all the pitchers anyway, and people keep bugging for my ranks in chats and anyway — here they are! I have some notes below the ranks, which are created for 5×5 leagues by using projections and then moving the players around subjectively for different reasons, most of which you will hear on our podcast.

But there are a few notes about tiers and places in the rankings that I like and dislike, notes that might help you think about your pitching strategy this year. Good luck!

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MASH Report: Scherzer, Wheeler, & Pujols

Carlos Reyes had Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2017 and probably a month or two of the 2018 season. Our own Mike Sonne went into the details on predicting Reyes’s injury.

Max Scherzer is not able to pitch because of a stress fracture in his knuckle which means he might not be ready for Opening Day.

“I don’t even want to comment on [Opening Day], because I don’t even know what I’m going to be able to do or not,” said Scherzer, who has been the Nationals’ Opening Day starter for the past two years. “It’d be unfair for me to even project or even talk about that.”
….
As Strasburg threw change-ups and sliders and honed two-seam fastballs, Scherzer was heartened by the fact that he could play catch with a baseball. He spent the winter throwing tennis and lacrosse balls to keep his arm in shape, because the baseball was too big for his injured finger to grip. He modified his grip again on Thursday.

“As this fracture continues to heal, as the symptoms continue to alleviate, as we get treatment on everything, I’ll be able to work back into all my grips and obviously get back on the mound,” Scherzer said. “But right now it’s just getting back out there, throwing a baseball and getting my arm in shape.”

Because he can’t grip a baseball, Scherzer’s not if he will be ready for the season’s start. Before this news, he was the clear #2 starter. As of now, I think he drops down to the next pack with Thor, Sale, and Bumgarner.

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Wily Peralta – An Intriguing (Hard) Dart Throw in 2017

I was at a bit of a loss as to who or what to write about for today’s piece when I sat down to work yesterday. Per the usual, I headed to the leaderboards in search of inspiration. I opted to look at the PITCHf/x velocity data for the first half and second half for starting pitchers who threw a minimum of 40 innings in each half. The usual suspects sat atop the leaderboard, but one big mover from the first half to the second half was Wily Peralta.

In the first half, Peralta ranked tied for 21st in four-seam fastball velocity (94.0 mph) and tied for 16th in two-seam fastball velocity (94.2 mph). Peralta’s a hard thrower, so his ranks weren’t a surprise. What did surprise me were sizable gains in velocity in the second half. Down the stretch, Milwaukee’s righty rose to sixth in average four-seam fastball velocity adding more than a tick averaging 95.2 mph and ranking second in two-seam fastball velocity (95.5 mph). Positive results followed the uptick in cheddar for the 27-year-old. Read the rest of this entry »