February Rankings – Shortstops
We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
Previous rankings:
| # | NAME | Paul S | Brad | Mike | Jeff | Al | Justin | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 |
| 2 | Carlos Correa | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| 3 | Corey Seager | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 5 |
| 4 | Jonathan Villar | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2 |
| 5 | Trevor Story | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4 |
| 7 | Francisco Lindor | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 2 |
| 8 | Jean Segura | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 3 |
| 9 | Jose Peraza | 11 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 9 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 11 |
| 10 | Aledmys Diaz | 12 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 9 |
| 11 | Addison Russell | 10 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 12 | Elvis Andrus | 9 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 7 |
| 13 | Troy Tulowitzki | 13 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 5 |
| 14 | Eduardo Nunez | 14 | 20 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 9 |
| 15 | Marcus Semien | 15 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 9 |
| 16 | Brad Miller | 17 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 17 | Tim Anderson | 16 | 24 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 18.5 | 18.0 | 9 |
| 18 | Dansby Swanson | 18 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 17 | 35 | 18.8 | 16.8 | 24 |
| 19 | Brandon Crawford | 19 | 18 | 23 | 25 | 20 | 14 | 19.8 | 20.0 | 11 |
| 20 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 21 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 21 | 20.5 | 21.3 | 8 |
| 21 | Didi Gregorius | 20 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 22 | 22 | 20.5 | 20.8 | 4 |
| 22 | Javier Baez | 22 | 19 | 26 | 28 | 24 | 20 | 23.2 | 23.0 | 9 |
| 23 | Matt Duffy | 23 | 25 | 21 | 30 | 21 | 26 | 24.3 | 23.8 | 9 |
| 24 | Jedd Gyorko | 24 | 32 | 32 | 26 | 23 | 17 | 25.7 | 26.3 | 15 |
| 25 | Orlando Arcia | 29 | 26 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 24 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 7 |
| 26 | Alcides Escobar | 27 | 30 | 16 | 24 | 32 | 27 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 16 |
| 27 | Jose Reyes | 25 | 17 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 32 | 27.8 | 29.3 | 16 |
| 28 | Zack Cozart | 28 | 22 | 28 | 35 | 34 | 23 | 28.3 | 28.3 | 13 |
| 29 | Jorge Polanco | 35 | 37 | 25 | 20 | 27 | 29 | 28.8 | 29.0 | 17 |
| 30 | Jose Iglesias | 30 | 31 | 34 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 31.0 | 31.3 | 7 |
| 31 | Andrelton Simmons | 31 | 39 | 30 | 23 | 28 | 38 | 31.5 | 31.8 | 16 |
| 32 | Jhonny Peralta | 26 | 38 | 24 | 33 | 38 | 31 | 31.7 | 32.0 | 14 |
| 33 | Danny Espinosa | 40 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 25 | 33 | 32.8 | 33.0 | 15 |
| 34 | Ketel Marte | 32 | 29 | 39 | 39 | 37 | 25 | 33.5 | 34.3 | 14 |
| 35 | Freddy Galvis | 39 | 28 | 40 | 39 | 31 | 30 | 34.5 | 34.8 | 12 |
| 36 | Chris Owings | 33 | 27 | 36 | 39 | 36 | 36 | 34.5 | 35.3 | 12 |
| 37 | Jurickson Profar | 34 | 36 | 41 | 39 | 39 | 28 | 36.2 | 37.0 | 13 |
| 38 | Nick Franklin | 37 | 33 | 48 | 29 | 35 | 42 | 37.3 | 36.8 | 19 |
| 39 | J.J. Hardy | 41 | 43 | 38 | 34 | 29 | 42 | 37.8 | 38.8 | 14 |
| 40 | Raul Mondesi | 36 | 44 | 31 | 37 | 39 | 42 | 38.2 | 38.5 | 13 |
Seager is the 7th SS in Jeffs rankings!?? I’ll have whatever he’s smoking
Seager is a great hitter, but is he a true fantasy beast with no speed? Is he automatically going to improve upon his 2016? Big Seager fan, but he might be overhyped in fantasy, tbh.
I agree with this. Fantastic bat, but without the speed he is less valuable. I wonder if Machado is overhyped in the same way?
The Machado comparison makes a lot of sense, though Manny has at least shown the ability to steal 20.
Yep, I think kdallas points out the big difference in that MM has at least shown a capacity for SBs. He also has 2675 PA under his belt compared to just 800 for Seager, so I think MM is a lot more bankable.
I think Seager should add some RBIs, but I don’t think his ’17 will be drastically different than last year.
Point taken on MM’s track record. About his speed, why do you think he didn’t steal one base last year (0SB, 3CS)? Organizational philosophy, injury related, a mix of both?
O’s as a team only stole something like 20 bases last year. Admittedly, not many of them have any business running, but at this point it’s clearly an organizational thing. Manny’s fine.
Agreed. Would take Story over him any day for that reason. Story, meanwhile, looks like a riskier Correa (high power upside but certainly a lower floor).
Seager over Villar is comically wrong. Villar had over 80 (EIGHTY!!!) HR+SB last year. Seager didn’t even reach 30 and barely steals, so he has no path to besting or even approaching Villar’s HR+SB numbers. Unless you think Villar will regress back to being nothing (a slight possibility) or Seager is going to pop 40 HR (Steamer has him projected for 23) or suddenly start stealing a ton of bases. I don’t understand how you can justify this unless you think Villar’s season was a fluke. Seager’s ceiling in 5×5 is limited due to his lack of speed.
If HR and SB’s were the only categories…you might have a point. But, Villar has a legitimate chance of combining for 130 Runs+RBI and a .250 avg…while a reasonable projection for Seager is 170 Runs+RBI and .295 avg
For me, you can throw the top 5 in a hat and draw them in whatever order you’d like. I really like Bogaerts and Lindor too, but I don’t see the same likelihood for a top 1 SS season.
I’ve been trying to figure out if I like Lindor or Bogaerts better for 2017, and it seems you guys agree that they are very, very close!
Justin – Bogaerts ranked ahead of Story seems odd to me. Do you have concerns about Story’s thumb surgery recovery? I think both teams have potent lineups, but when in doubt I go with the Colorado hitter.
Injury and natural regression from Story is a tad bit concerning. Honestly, I have my SS’s 2-6 so close they are virtually interchangeable. I am a big Bogaerts guy, so I prefer him, but I can’t make a strong argument that one is way better. Just personal preference. The top part of this position is so stacked compared to recent years, you can’t really go wrong.
Bregman doesn’t have SS eligibility in Yahoo.
you’re right, he has 6 games, but only 4 starts. My bad there, I was using a games played filter and not a games started one.
Same goes for Jose Ramirez. I’ll be removing them later today.
He’s 1 start away from SS eligibility in Yahoo standard leagues. I figure he has SS eligibility by mid-May at the very latest and probably by the end of April. The Astros have a bit of a logjam at C/1B/DH so you have to figure the 1st game that Correa misses, they will slide Bregman over to SS and move Gurreil to 3B to squeeze in PA for 1 of Gattis/McCann/Beltran/Reed. The only other guy to play SS last year was Marwin Gonzalez and 6 of his 9 games came before Bregman was called up (& the final 3 came the last 2 weeks of the season after Houston was mathematically eliminated).
Good point about him possibly gaining SS eligibility. But it wouldn’t come after 1 start, he would need 5 starts.
I shouldn’t complain because it means I’ll have an easier time picking him in a later round, but I think Tim Anderson is being undervalued early on in the fantasy rankings (not just FG’s). I tend to value SB’s a little bit more than the next person which might explain it. An 80-15-60-25-270 season is probably on the low side for his projections, I would rather have him than anyone listed from 11-18 above. White Sox are going to be bad and he will rack up stats while no one is paying attention (i.e. Villar from last year).
You’re calling that low? Smells high to me. Median/mean should be somewhere around 70/9/45/20/.255. I agree that there’s a LOT of upside beyond that – enough that I’m targeting him for my MI slots. However, the floor is something like Danny Espinosa with less power.
Young players with Anderson’s profile are very volatile. He could be a black hole of fantasy value.
Quite the discrepancy in opinions on Dansby. I’d love to hear Brad’s case for #13 and Justin’s case for #37!
I probably could/should move him up because he is almost assured to end the year higher than this, but the hype on this kid is insane. this is an example of people reading prospect lists for real baseball and not fantasy. He will be a great real life shortstop, but the idea that this is a fantasy star in the making is ridiculous to me. Steamer projects him to go 13/9 with a .259 which put him 19th in the auction calculator at SS. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle early on and only deliver 7-8 home runs and stolen bases each with a sub par average. He doesn’t have a particularly great fantasy asset. The argument can be made that he should fall in my top 30, but I have no interest this year on him and this rank says that.
Wasn’t the the same thing said about Lindor (i.e., he’d be a better real-life than fantasy player)?
Are you taking into account that players like Story who were projected by Pre-Season Steamer to be a .230/.298/.420 type player? These projection systems are good to look at from a distance, not to the exact decimal point. Fantasy can be a gamble and you should gamble on Swanson hitting in front of Freddie Freeman.
You will be embarrassingly wrong about him… “real baseball and not fantasy”.
lol
Meanwhile, I expect to see him batting second or third, sandwiched between some combination of Inciate, Freeman, Markakis, and Kemp. He’s an exceptionally talented hitter who will probably improve his contact rates throughout the first few seasons of his career. I agree the home runs and steals may be underwhelming. Mostly, I like the projected role.
So essentially, Swanson is an NL-only asset that will likely be picked up much too early in MLB leagues due to his pedigree. It seems that Gregorious or A.Cabrera would be a more impactful pick.
Wow, ask and ye shall receive! Thanks Justin & Brad! I see where both of you guys are coming from. Hoping that Brad’s projection ends up closer to the truth this year, as Dansby projects as my starting SS in a 20-team mixer.
Paul, where would you expect Trea Turner to fall in this list? He’s going to be the starting SS in DC from what we’re all being told. He’s been top 15 overall in ADP and top 15 or top 20 in almost every ranking system I’ve seen. He seems like a logical guy to slot in at #3 behind Correa and Machado, no?
Dubbs, if he’s a top 15 NFBC, I think you could even slot him interchangeably with La Maquina. Ahead of Seager I think.
Lindor as the sixth or seventh SS off the board? I’d be more than happy taking him then so long as there isn’t an early run on SS’s in the draft. Such depth at the top of a top heavy position.
It’s pretty incredible how deep the SS position is this year. I’d be pretty happy with any of the top 15 as my starter, and could talk myself into some of the other guys outside that range.
Yes well said. Maybe the smart strategy is to let everyone else reach for shortstops and grab Tim Anderson. Sure you might get outproduced there but you’ll smash fools at Catcher or something.
Might as well include Trea Turner in your SS rankings, that’s where he’s playing in 2017.
That’s not really how it works, though. Yes he will be playing there and he’ll qualify in relatively short order, but you can’t draft him as SS so it’d be wrong to include him.