Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 17th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Thanks for the patience re: the delay. Pod is posting v soon. Let’s talk some baseball

Mixed Man: 7 days into our email draft, we’re about halfway through with our League of Leagues draft. What’s the biggest thing you wish you’d known when you started in the OG LoL?

Paul Sporer: Would’ve placed more importance on hoops and let baseball linger longer, trusting myself late to find gems

Dwight K Schrute: Bears. Beats. Battlestar Galactica.

Paul Sporer: Wasn’t it Beets for Dwight?

Eric: Do you think Tommy Joseph is a startable 1B in a 12-team league?

Paul Sporer: Maybe at CI or UT

Paul: In a 12 team 6×6 (R/HR/RBI/SB/OBP/SLG and QS/SV/HLD/K/ERA/SHIP) which devalues pitching, how you would divide up auction dollars? 80/20?

Paul Sporer: Ya not much reason to spend big on SPs, so I’d probably go around 80/20

Minty: For OBP, are we basically hoping that Beni turns into Yelich?

Paul Sporer: I can see that

Dwight K Schrute: Yes. Yes it was. My mistake.

Paul Sporer: No prob!

Steve: In an OBP/SLG league does Votto get top 10 consideration?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely

LudeBurger: holla at ya boi!!

Paul Sporer: LUUUUUDDDDEEE

Minty: Nola or J Gray in QS keeper? I can play the matchup game.

Paul Sporer: Gimme J Gray

Matthew Simmons: Why so little love for Kershaw in the 1st spot? In mocks and real drafts match him with a SP at the 2/3 turn and then projected 20-25% of all roto pts

Paul Sporer: Just not something many are into. I love Kersh and I can dig the #1 thing. He’s the only other guy I can see at 1.1 over Trout, tbh. There isn’t a legit case for anyone else, IMO

Paul Sporer: The back certainty scares folks off, too

Jesse: How do you value top closers like Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen in saves+holds leaugues? Do they lose value from traditional leagues or are they still elite top 100 overall players?

Paul Sporer: Maybe bump ’em down a little, but I don’t change too much. The best closers are still better than the best holds guys and their ratios + Ks sets them apart

ChicagoCardinal: Trying to decide if the following strategy works for Roto with daily FAAB? One big 3 starter, One big 3 closer, another top 10 closer, 5 or so $1 relievers with great ratios and stream 2-3 starters. Total cost $60-$65 + FAAB.

Paul Sporer: Have to consider how quickly it will drain your FAAB, though. You will need some FAAB for hitters at some point, too, right? But I don’t mind it in principle

LudeBurger: wow, you are lightning fast today. I am just so pumped for baseball. How bout you?

Paul Sporer: Couldn’t be more geeked. ST firing up, fantasy rankings coming out, MLB The Show 17 just over a month away… so so so excited!

Ryguy: Maybe I should wait for the Pitching Pod, but how do you feel MCullers will respond this year as far as innings, health? Joe Ross in the same boat?

Paul Sporer: We didn’t get to discuss McCullers, but that’s more because we both like him. Today’s pod is discrepancies in rankings. There will still be a pod where we deep dive the entire SP rankings

Matt: if you have to name 2 SPs outside your top 100 to finish top 25, who you got?

Paul Sporer: Mike Montgomery if he gets a role and Patrick Corbin keeping the ball in the park again and staying healthy

Jay: If Schwarber winds up having catcher eligibility, is he the best fantasy catcher not named Buster or Gary? Worth a handcuff with Contreras?

Paul Sporer: Still prefer Lucroy, but he’d be top 5

Paul Sporer: OK pod finishing processing, gimme a few to post it

Padres: We have a plethora of pretty good RP candidates. Closer by committee?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s Maurer until Capps is healthy enough to take it

John: Hi Paul. A lot of people saying “I like” Alex Bregman. But can you give us what you expect from him? Is he someone who is going to continue his success from last season or do we see him become another second year regression guy? Happens way too often.

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a guy who has “it”. I know that’s intangible and can rub some the wrong way, but I just think he’s one of these right away guys. The Dustin Pedroia comp thrown around seems apt to me

Jesse: So bump the elite guys down a little but raise up guys like Kyle Barraclough? Who in a saves+holds league is the equivalent of Kenley jansen. Or is there still a gap between the two?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say equivalent. The highest holds totals still aren’t usually in line with highest SVs

Jimmy: Paul I’m thinking of trying to flip Daniel Murphy is my keeper points league since I have Altuve and EE at 2b and 1b already respectively. Was thinking of aiming for a 3b or OF like Trea Turner. What do you think? Other keepers are Mookie, Story, Lester Darvish

Paul Sporer: Might not be able to get Turner straight up, but I wouldn’t give TOO much more to make that happen. I’m open to flipping Murph, though

Pie: Switching from a snake draft to an auction this year in our keeper league. Currently have Altuve and Kershaw at their ESPN $$ value as 2 of my 5 keepers. Do you think that combo is doable and still allow for a balanced team otherwise? I’m considering flipping Kershaw for draft moneys

Paul Sporer: I like it and think it’s doable. It’s just your two big purchases being done before the draft. You won’t be able to buy too many more high end pieces, but that’s OK. Or maybe go full out stars n scrubs

Tom: When starting a dynasty league do you prefer to split the MLB and MiLB drafts or combine the two?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t ever started one, but I’d say combine

Eric: How wasteful is it to play Bryant at 1B?

Paul Sporer: Not as wasteful as you might think. I think 3B is deeper than 1B this year

Mack: a) If I offer up Hosmer and Gallo, do you think I can get Gary Sanchez?

Paul Sporer: Only if that leaguemate loves Gallo, I’d personally say no though

A-A-ron: Who has a bigger year in 2017: Soler, Puig, or Domingo Santana?

Paul Sporer: One more year of Puig love from me

Drew: Hey bud. What’s your expectations of Shelby Miller this year? What’s his trade worth in a 16-team deep mixed league?

Paul Sporer: I think he rebounds as long as he’s healthy. Mid-3.00s, solid Ks. Can prob get him cheaply, though. Market is very low on him

Mr. Snappy: Who do you like better for Scoresheet. Arenado, Machado or Bryant?

Paul Sporer: Arenado

Carldude: What are your projections for Byron Buxton?

Paul Sporer: Hey Carl! I think he’ll build on that Sept, but not do a full season of it. I’d say .260/15 HR/30 SB – solid full season

Skip: Still a chance for drew Hutchinson to be a pitcher of value?

Paul Sporer: yes, espec. in PIT. keep an eye on Spring and throw a buck at him in deeper leagues

John: In a 6×6 (obp and qs) head to head categories league, does it make sense to take Kershaw 2nd if Trout goes #1. Thinking that he has a higher likely of finishing #1 pitcher then the guy you pick betts,Altuve, etc have of finishing 2nd or better.

Paul Sporer: Absolutely OK with that!

Skip: Any new plans for your twitch channel?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got some ideas and I’ll have a schedule during the regular season

Bowski: Points league with 15 keepers. Buxton could be had pretty cheap. Do you fancy him over Meadows/Grichuk

Paul Sporer: Ya I probably would prefer Buxton most, but Grichuk is close. Love that Grichuk power.

Goose: Regular 260 budget Roto league. Gotta keep 2. Hendricks – $3. Greinke – $14. Andrew Miller $2.?

Paul Sporer: Gimme the two SPs. Surplus value in both

Roberto: Buxton or Moncada for a final Keeper spot?

Paul Sporer: Bux

ChicagoCardinal: Tyler Austin broke his foot. How many PAs does Greg Byrd get? What sort of $$ helium?

Paul Sporer: I’d add a few bucks. I think it negates the pain of Carter signing

Matt: Which of the A’s young starters do you like the best? Manaea, Graveman or Cotton?

Paul Sporer: Manaea, but I’m very high on Manaea and Cotton

Drew: What would an ideal trade return be for my $16 Shelby Miller in my $400 budget deep mixer, 30-man rosters?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I mean, I don’t think I’d trade him bc I’m not sure you’re going to get great value. Maybe try another buy low asset like Puig or Grichuk?

Paul Sporer: BRB now Charlotte needs to pee

GrooGrux King: I can keep one of Buxton, Mazara, or McCullers. Who ya got?

Paul Sporer: Mazara for me

Steve: Who would you keep as your last keeper: bellinger, kopech, Luke weaver, Reynaldo Lopez

Paul Sporer: Weaver or Belly – best chance at ’17 impact

Jimmy: Who’s better in 2017 and beyond, Cotton, or Gsellman?

Paul Sporer: Cotton, though Wheeler’s latest news of his lack of readiness aids the outlook for Gsellman

Nolson: What’s the shallower position this year, 1B or 3B? Keep Wil Myers over Franco and search for value at 3B later? or vice versa?

Paul Sporer: 1B. I’d keep Myers over Franco regardless, though, just a more dynamic asset

dave in slc: benitendi worth 15 in an al only keeper?

Paul Sporer: yeah, I’d say so

TD: Which SIX would you pick of the following; R. Odor, J. Lamb, G. Sanchez, M. Sano, K. Maeda, R. Osuna, A. Cobb, G. Richards, G. Cole
Thanks Paul

Paul Sporer: Sanchez, Sano, Odor, Lamb, Osuna, and choice of Maeda or Cole

pantsdance: How would you rank these SP prospects in a dynasty league? Gsellman, Cotton, Keller, Kaprielian, Groome

Paul Sporer: Cotton, Gsellman, Keller, Kapri, Groome… I don’t know much on Groome yet, though, tbh

Gest: Who do you have in a Carlos Martinez vs. Danny Duffy pitcher battle?

Paul Sporer: I have Duffy – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-starting-pitcher/

Drew: Are you staying away from pitchers that pitch in the WBC?

Paul Sporer: Not as a rule, no

Xavier: Will either of Robert Stephenson or Matt Wisler be very productive this year?

Paul Sporer: I think Wisler has a better shot as he shown a few flashes in his MLB time. Stephenson has plenty of raw stuff, but a lot more work to do

Sange76: 16 tm h2h pts league. My Bautista and rd 11 pick for his Wade Davis and rd 3 pick. N Cruz is my best OF keeper and I have no closers to keep. Rd 3 could be a valuable pick w lots of players left on the board, but is it worth Bautista?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can dig that move. I have some concerns on Davis bc of health and I’m on the higher end for Bautista (some folks are just quitting him), but I think the round difference makes up the gap and allows you to do this

Steinbrenner’s Ghost: 20-team, H2H-Points Auction League…What’s the better value for $71? Kershaw $71 OR Freddie Freeman $45 and Kyle Seager $26

Paul Sporer: The two hitters, IMO

Hmmm….: Any worries about Darvish’s health going into this season?

Paul Sporer: His is probably 5-8% higher than average, but all SPs have some injury for sure

Tim: Have to decide between $24 K. Davis and $31 N. Cruz as my last keeper. Who’s the more valuable of the two in your eyes?

Paul Sporer: Khris Davis is hoping to emulate Nelson Cruz, but even ate age-36, I gotta go Cruz with three straight 40+ HR seasons

Chris: Hey Paul–I’ve got a tough call in an AL-Only, 6×6. Pitching categories are net wins, K-BB, innings, ERA, WHIP and SV. I can keep two of Aaron Sanchez, Fulmer, Gausman or Stroman. Who do you go with?

Paul Sporer: Hot damn that is tough. Sanchez and Fulmer.

Hector: Paul, in a H2H league with offense including BB/OBP/H in addition to the standard 5 offensive categories, what kind of player would you chase in the first round (I have the 7th pick): a safe guy like Machado or Donaldson or a high-upside generational talent like Harper. I feel like the BB/OBP is a saftey net for guys like Harper.

Paul Sporer: I’d go Harper. I still think he’s pretty safe while also having gobs of upside. He was clearly dinged up last year which led to the ugly summer, but he’s still super elite

Archie: In an 11 team AL only 4×4 would you keep Gausman at $4 or Rodon at $9?

Paul Sporer: Gausman

Pie: For reference re: Altuve/Kershaw, my other keepers are a half-price Trea, half-price Bregman, and half-price Arenado. In place of Kershaw I’d go with a half-price Dahl

Paul Sporer: No, go with Kershaw

Pie: It is February 17 and I wore shorts and sandals outside in Austin. I was still warm.

Paul Sporer: Isn’t it amazing?

Paul Sporer: Weather has been tremendous this week

Clebot: Should we be worried about how much Kluber was used last season? Almost 250 IP, including playoffs where they started him often on 3-days rest..

Paul Sporer: Remember when we heard that about Bumgarner? I’m not saying we fully ignore it and don’t pay attention to usage patterns, but with someone like Kluber, it doesn’t bother me

Josh: I wanted to post an opening in the fantasy baseball league filler article, but the comments seem to be closed. Is there some way to open them back up?

Paul Sporer: Try now. It’s reposted under today’s date

Alastar: 14 team keep forever. My team has a chance to win this year. Would you trade Correa for Donaldson and Scherzer? I could play Machado at short but he might not be eligible there after this year.

Paul Sporer: Definitely. Flags fly forever

Mike: Hey paul great stuff as always . A lot of hype/upside for the following guys. Can u rank or chat about a few ? Mclrz, pax, shoe, rodon, manaea, GR, gaus, pineda, snell, cobb, bundy Thanks

Paul Sporer: Thanks! I’d point you here for rankings – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/february-rankings-starting-pitcher/ I love McCullers’ talent, but health is of course his issue. Paxton and Rodon are leap year candidates for me. Manaea has very nice upside. Pineda frustrates me, but I recognize the skills. I think Cobb is a nice late value.

Guest: AL only 12 team $260 – would you trade an $18 Trumbo for an $8 Judge and $15 Jarrod Dyson?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I probably wouldn’t. I’m not much for Judge or Dyson, tbh, though I realize Dyson will likely meet or exceed that $15 value with SBs alone. Hell, I’m not even a huge Trumbo guy, but at $18, he’s nice

AL Only : Where are these SBs coming from this year?

Paul Sporer: Outside of studs like Trout, Altuve, and Betts, look at Rajai, Kiermaier, Leonys, Dyson, Revere (sooo cheap), Buxton, and Billy Burns could rebound if some PT opens up

MB: Myers 40/40 – yup

Paul Sporer: LOL

dave in slc: will bartolo colon be worth keeping in an nl only for a buck?

Paul Sporer: Nah

Beau: Do any of the following guys take their big step in decline this year: Beltre, Longoria, Miggy, Adam Jones.

Paul Sporer: I wish I knew, but Beltre’s age makes him scariest of the group bc injury can really start to get late-30s guys

Tamps: What say you on Raul Mondesi Jr.? Is he a starter in an 11-team AL-only?

Paul Sporer: Ooh another name for the AL SB question. He could be an MI in that format

James: Matz + Clint Frazier for Yu Darvish. Which side do you like more?

Paul Sporer: Without knowing league format, I’d say Yu

Jesse: Last saves+holds question, only because I cannot find any information on ADP rand rankings for it… Where would you start taking the top closers (Jansen,Chapman,Britton) in a draft? They start coming off the board around pick 50 in regular leagues. What about for saves+holds?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure I’d move those three too much bc like I said, they’re four category guys. But guys you draft just for saves, I’d say a couple rounds later

dave in slc: how much do you throw at bumgarner in an nl only where all the other elite pitchers are kept? my next best guys I have are nola and mcarthy so I feel I kind of need an anchor. wont even be much in the mid range to bid on this year I think

Paul Sporer: $40?

Lonnie: I think there is a good shot that Keon Broxton hits 15HR and steals 40 bags? I feel like Milwaukee loves running and the park may boost a guy like Broxton’s power by a few HR. Am I crazy? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Not crazy bc even with his hideous K% impacting his AVG, he has the BB% to protect his OBP and give him a chance at those bags

Eric: Re: Bryant at first, he also has OF eligibility, which seems shallower than usual this year

Paul Sporer: I think OF is always shallower than most recognize

Kenny: Roto or H2H categories and why?

Paul Sporer: I just prefer Roto bc it has less volatility than H2H, but I’ve come around a bit on H2H

Aidan: How many games do you think Pomeranz starts this year? How many IP?

Paul Sporer: ~170 – we actually discussed him on the pod a bit

M. Pineda: What’s my problem?!

Paul Sporer: Command. You throw way too many bad strikes in the zone that get crushed

Minty: to trade Moncada for Bellinger+ in a keeper, what would you want the + to be?

Paul Sporer: These questions are virtually impossible, tbh. So many factors go into it, namely your leaguemates. Another solid prospect?

John: Lots of questions on Beninintendi around the fantasy world. Some think he has better skills than Mookie and see that as his upside. Others say, eh. In a points league, do you see him as someone who could turn into a Betts or we looking at a mid-tier “good” fantasy player?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he has the same skill set as Betts, not for ’17 at least. But we’re looking at someone who should develop into a strong top 60 or so player, IMO

Tom: Do you know when/if 2017 player profiles will be updated on the player page?

Paul Sporer: They will be. Early March is the target!

Yuk Yuk Puk: Does Ken Giles finish as a top 10 closer this year?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Paul Sporer: Just a few more today, y’all

John: When people throw the love on Gary Sanchez, is it because they expect him to be a Posey type catcher that is a good hitter or is he a good hitting catcher and not really worth the pursuit?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure his catching skills are the same as Posey’s, but he has greatly improved his skills behind the dish the last few seasons. The love is bc he’s a tremendous power hitter

Gumby: 5×5 h2h cats league (obp), pick one yankee bat for Utility spot: Greg bird, Chris Carter, or Matt Holliday.

Paul Sporer: I’d bet on Bird’s upside

bl27: do you trust Moustakas ?

Paul Sporer: To do what?

Trainman: Profar apparently is now the starting LF against lefties in Texas according to reports. stock up?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’m interested in him as a late rounder

Greg: Every time I ht your twitch channel some else is “hosting” on it? That’s seems LAME!

Greg: We want Paul!

Paul Sporer: I had a few days off, but I’ll be back on tonight

Sam : Why no pitching guide this year? Ain’t like your pregnant or anything! Will it ever return?

Paul Sporer: Time. Not sure what the pregnancy thing means. And probably.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going.

Paul Sporer: We’ll go longer next week!