Eno’s 2017 Pitcher Ranks
I may have taken a step back from RotoGraphs, but I haven’t stopped playing fantasy baseball, and I have to take a look at all the pitchers anyway, and people keep bugging for my ranks in chats and anyway — here they are! I have some notes below the ranks, which are created for 5×5 leagues by using projections and then moving the players around subjectively for different reasons, most of which you will hear on our podcast.
But there are a few notes about tiers and places in the rankings that I like and dislike, notes that might help you think about your pitching strategy this year. Good luck!
We’ll talk on the podcast this week about places where I was the most off of the consensus! Take a listen! EDIT: I moved a couple pitchers around after talking to Paul on the podcast.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
No love for Alex Wood or Reynaldo Lopez?
No love for Lopez too much work to do http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-could-drop-their-arm-slot-for-more-success/
I keep looking at Wood. I like him some, but is he in the top five for now?
I think it might be all about health for Wood. I was just about to say Skaggs and Wood seem interchangeable to me and look at that, Wood is also a projections play. Whoa – De Leon even better.
Where would Devenski rank if he had a rotation spot?
Man if Devenski had a rotation spot, I’d put him in the late 80s probably. I do like him.
Last thought – It’s surprising that you put Manaea ahead of Cotton because you seem more lukewarm on Manaea compared to your love of Cotton. Plus the projections have Cotton one ahead. What is the reasoning there?
Floor.
right now my sense of the dodgers situation is that the most likely scenario – assuming no injuries, and expecting nothing from ryu – is that the urias extended spring thing will happen and the april 5 will be kershaw / hill / maeda / kazmir / mccarthy. wood’s pen work and health blips plus the contracts and general veteran-ness of kazmir and mccarthy all work against wood here.
of course you can easily imagine someone or someones getting hurt, or a scenario where LA trades out kaz or mccarthy to some innings-desperate team near the end of spring if they’re showing well and wood gets in there.
conversely though you can also imagine urias just going so hard he can’t be denied, or even brock stewart doing the same
so he could wind up with a slot but it’s pretty far from a sure thing at this stage. like, really, really far
Man I hope that’s not the case, hard to believe that Kazmir is a better option than Wood, and it’s not particularly close IMO.
Surprised to see Arrieta so low. Not an ace in your opinion? Calculator and consensus agree but he’s definitely been an ace the last 2 years…what am I missing? Also, is the loss of Ross a concern for the Cub pitchers (esp Lester)?
I need someone to explain the Lance McCullers’ love to me. His career high in innings is 155, so even if everything goes right with his health this year it’s hard to imagine him topping 180. His MLB career walk rate is 3.83, which would have been top-10 worst in the baseball last year (and his walk rate last year was way worse, at 5.00). I know the K-rate is the thing that makes him attractive, but with the innings, walks, and league/ballpark factors all working against him, plus a good bullpen that will likely absorb some possible wins when he can only pitch 5 1/3 in an average start, I see no way he ends up a top-30 pitcher.
From what I’ve seen on the site it seems like so much of his downside is related to the walks, so if he manages to add control, the floor and ceiling both jump way up.
I love all three of his pitches and like what he told me about throwing a two-seamer more — he can trust that pitch in the zone, get strike one, and then be in the driver’s seat.
Surprised Alex Wood is that low, is it more because he’s not guaranteed a starting spot through the season? A health risk? A talent issue? Or some combination of those? He’s a guy I’ve been targetting in mock drafts as my fifth or sixth starter. Though now this list makes me think that I’m overrating him as most of the guys in the tier above him have been available when I typically take him in the last few rounds.
lol I should probably read the comments section first before jumping in, my bad
Why so high on Gsellman? He was great down the stretch last year, but significantly outperformed his minor league numbers and his peripherals. HR/FB and LOB% both look due for regression to the mean and I doubt he can sustain 8+ K/9.
He’s also on the outside looking in at the Mets rotation currently. Granted, that probably still means he’s good for 20-25 starts this year, but I think he’s more of an innings-eater than a fantasy asset.
My assumption is that he’s the fifth starter, Wheeler is hurt again, and Lugo is the sixth starter. Shoot, Lugo should be on here. 115 or so.
On his talent, I think he actually has some homer suppression talent. It’s a plus sinker, and the cutter/slider thing is good. Curve or change offer him a way forward.
Even as a Ranger fan surprised to see Darvish so high. Do like how his BB rate was lowest of his career last year but no concern over lingering shoulder or elbow issues?
Healthy now at least for a year or two, I see a Cy-worthy season coming.
Hey Eno, thanks for taking some time to give us these rankings.
One question though: last year on one of your chat rooms somebody asked you if you thought Folty had a chance to be a top 50 starter and you said yes, you thought he did.
So why the low ranking?
His PITCH/fx data showed some major improvement in his slider’s effectiveness in the second half of the season, while maintaining that good velo with his four seamer. And even though he didn’t throw them often (maybe he will now with a new pitching coach) he got good whiff rates with his changeup and curve.
So is it because you think he’ll be the fifth starter? Or something else?
Thanks again, we’ve all been waiting for this!
I think you missed Ervin Santana.
Confidence on Sonny Gray rebounding to something like a 3.50 ERA/1.25 WHIP level? His metrics didn’t really move that much from the last several years when he was a low 3’s/high 2’s ERA guy.
I’m in a 12 team keeper league that really under values pitching. I have been able to acquire four arms in your first tier. Where should I start considering adding a fifth SP?
You have four arms in the first tier in a keeper league? Wow! I’m not a fantasy expert but I’d think about trading one of them away for a position player upgrade at one of your weaker spots in the lineup.
Here’s my reasoning: how durable a pitcher has been in the past doesn’t matter very much. All pitchers eventually get hurt (ask any Kershaw owner).
There’s plenty of good pitchers you can find in the 3rd or 4th tiers if you do that. And some good ones in the 4th and 5th tiers if you do your homework and want to keep those four arms. One of my favorites is Jr. Guerra, despite the park he calls home.
Ervin Santana?
Cashner?
Why all the love for Danny Duffy? Doesn’t seem at all like a top 30 guy to me, what am I not seeing?
Eno – any easy way to include league (NL/AL) in this chart, just so those of us who want an NL-version (or AL) can tweak?