Eno’s 2017 Pitcher Ranks

by
February 17, 2017

I may have taken a step back from RotoGraphs, but I haven’t stopped playing fantasy baseball, and I have to take a look at all the pitchers anyway, and people keep bugging for my ranks in chats and anyway — here they are! I have some notes below the ranks, which are created for 5×5 leagues by using projections and then moving the players around subjectively for different reasons, most of which you will hear on our podcast.

But there are a few notes about tiers and places in the rankings that I like and dislike, notes that might help you think about your pitching strategy this year. Good luck!

Eno’s Pitcher Ranks
Eno Player Auction Calculator Consensus Ranks
1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1
2 Max Scherzer 2 2
3 Noah Syndergaard 3 4
4 Madison Bumgarner 4 3
5 Chris Sale 5 5
6 Stephen Strasburg 7 10
7 Johnny Cueto 8 11
8 Yu Darvish 13 7
9 Corey Kluber 6 6
10 David Price 10 13
11 Carlos Carrasco 11 15
12 Chris Archer 12 14
13 Jacob deGrom 18 16
14 Jake Arrieta 15 12
15 Jon Lester 9 9
16 Justin Verlander 14 8
17 Kyle Hendricks 19 19
18 Carlos Martinez 34 18
19 Rich Hill 16 24
20 Zack Greinke 31 22
21 Masahiro Tanaka 32 17
22 Jose Quintana 37 23
23 Lance McCullers 20 29
24 Danny Salazar 26 31
25 Kenta Maeda 33 27
26 Gerrit Cole 27 25
27 James Paxton 22 32
28 Cole Hamels 48 21
29 Danny Duffy 29 20
30 Aaron Sanchez 96 28
31 Steven Matz 28 37
32 Michael Fulmer 63 40
33 Matt Harvey 39 38
34 Dallas Keuchel 24 35
35 Matt Shoemaker 25 42
36 Aaron Nola 35 36
37 Marcus Stroman 51 33
38 Rick Porcello 41 26
39 Jeff Samardzija 30 44
40 Garrett Richards 44 57
41 Jameson Taillon 21 47
42 Robbie Ray 23 43
43 Michael Pineda 17 63
44 John Lackey 40 45
45 Matt Moore 42 48
46 Vince Velasquez 47 52
47 Kevin Gausman 52 39
48 Julio Teheran 53 30
49 Carlos Rodon 66 49
50 Jon Gray 60 41
51 Drew Pomeranz 65 65
52 Blake Snell 54 67
53 Felix Hernandez 62 34
54 Joe Ross 64 59
55 Drew Smyly 46 61
56 Julio Urias 49 56
57 Jake Odorizzi 57 53
58 Wei-Yin Chen 43 71
59 Adam Wainwright 58 58
60 Anthony DeSclafani 72 55
61 Jerad Eickhoff 77 62
62 Taijuan Walker 70 60
63 Gio Gonzalez 50 72
64 Sean Manaea 85 50
65 Michael Wacha 87 78
66 Jharel Cotton 84 68
67 Sonny Gray 105 64
68 Dylan Bundy 175 89
69 Tyler Skaggs 36 70
70 Jordan Zimmermann 158 82
71 Lance Lynn 75 86
72 Daniel Norris 119 88
73 Junior Guerra 163 84
74 Jaime Garcia 56 92
75 Marco Estrada 175 54
76 Jose De Leon 38 113
77 Hisashi Iwakuma 69 66
78 Ian Kennedy 83 80
79 Collin McHugh 59 75
80 J.A. Happ 80 51
81 Adam Conley 127 85
82 Tanner Roark 112 46
83 Ivan Nova 74 69
84 Robert Gsellman 156 123
85 Alex Cobb 94 76
86 Mike Montgomery 73 104
87 Tyler Glasnow 79 97
88 Brandon Finnegan 175 94
89 Tyler Anderson 89 74
90 Zach Davies 130 96
91 David Phelps 67 #N/A
92 Francisco Liriano 81 81
93 Jeremy Hellickson 106 73
94 Mike Foltynewicz 100 87
95 Eduardo Rodriguez 108 93
96 Brandon McCarthy 68 117
97 Nate Karns 134 118
98 Matt Andriese 55 95
99 Luis Severino 86 99
100 Dan Straily 157 103
101 Scott Kazmir 61 107
102 Trevor Bauer 124 90
103 Charlie Morton 111 #N/A
104 Cody Reed 126 #N/A
105 Chad Green 92 #N/A
106 Ervin Santana 175 #N/A
107 Jason Hammel 143 77
108 Jose Berrios 142 110
109 Mike Fiers 90 105
110 Tyson Ross 110 101
111 Luke Weaver 129 108
112 Andrew Triggs 175 124
113 Chris Tillman 175 91
114 Brock Stewart 95 #N/A
115 Alex Wood 45 100
116 Joe Musgrove 115 102
117 Patrick Corbin 91 115
118 Drew Hutchison 88 #N/A
119 Christopher Devenski 101 #N/A
120 Josh Hader 131 #N/A
121 Steven Wright 175 109
122 Matt Boyd 160 #N/A
123 Mike Leake 102 83
124 Shelby Miller 152 106
125 Cody Anderson 135 #N/A
126 Ty Blach 99 #N/A
127 Archie Bradley 113 111
128 Jimmy Nelson 175 121
129 Lucas Giolito 175 125
130 Jhoulys Chacin 109 #N/A
131 Anibal Sanchez 132 #N/A
132 Bartolo Colon 82 98
133 Josh Tomlin 114 #N/A
134 Ross Stripling 97 #N/A
135 Wade LeBlanc 116 #N/A
136 Brett Anderson 121 #N/A
137 Clay Buchholz 117 120
138 Mike Clevinger 118 #N/A
139 Shane Greene 120 #N/A
140 CC Sabathia 146 122
141 Jesse Chavez 93 #N/A
142 R.A. Dickey 122 112
143 Albert Suarez 125 #N/A
144 Jose Urena 128 #N/A
145 Alex Meyer 98 #N/A
146 Zack Wheeler 78 119
147 Edinson Volquez 137 116
148 Hyun-Jin Ryu 138 #N/A
149 Reynaldo Lopez 148 #N/A
150 A.J. Cole 161 #N/A

  • I highlighted the end of tiers in yellow. I think I’d be uncomfortable with someone worse than Jacob deGrom as my ace in most leagues. That’s not to say the next guys are not good, and that you might be fine if you got two guys like Carlos Martinez and Jose Quintana as your first two pitchers, but if you were only going to get one from each tier, that’s about where I get nervous. Age, regression, or injury could hit that next group pretty hard.
  • I love Michael Fulmer. I think his strikeout rate will trend towards his swinging strike rate, and the discovery of that changeup means everything for his future. There’s some injury risk, but nothing like the next guy on the list. I really like that second tier, and I like it more than the third tier, despite the fact that I love Aaron Nola, and Carlos Rodon, and Jon Gray. I might take a pass on some of the helium guys in this tier like Jameson Taillon (no changeup) and Robbie Ray (same, bad outcomes third time through), and it would be weird to take the veterans in this tier high.
  • I like that last tier for some value. Nobody is talking about these guys, other than Julio Urias, who’s innings projection might make him a poor value. The A’s trio means I’ll just pick the one that drops to me here, and Dylan Bundy’s changeup, plus the cutter coming back and the developing curve… yes. Tyler Skaggs is a projection play — his projected numbers are over a run lower than his career numbers, and it’s a bit weird, but Adam Duvall was a projections play last year and it worked out to a T.
  • The next tier is also decent. I’d rather shop there than among the flotsam and jetsam that make up 90-110, as much as I think Chad Green and Cody Reed and Jose Berrios are stuff bets that are worth making. They are bets with a low cost, potential high reward, and very little floor. Pick your last guy on the roster here.

    • We’ll talk on the podcast this week about places where I was the most off of the consensus! Take a listen! EDIT: I moved a couple pitchers around after talking to Paul on the podcast.





     

    With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

    27 Comments
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    joedcamp
    7 years ago

    No love for Alex Wood or Reynaldo Lopez?

    0
    Eno Sarrismember
    7 years ago
    Reply to  joedcamp

    No love for Lopez too much work to do http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-could-drop-their-arm-slot-for-more-success/

    I keep looking at Wood. I like him some, but is he in the top five for now?

    1
    joedcamp
    7 years ago
    Reply to  Eno Sarris

    I think it might be all about health for Wood. I was just about to say Skaggs and Wood seem interchangeable to me and look at that, Wood is also a projections play. Whoa – De Leon even better.

    Where would Devenski rank if he had a rotation spot?

    0
    Eno Sarrismember
    7 years ago
    Reply to  joedcamp

    Man if Devenski had a rotation spot, I’d put him in the late 80s probably. I do like him.

    0
    joedcamp
    7 years ago
    Reply to  Eno Sarris

    Last thought – It’s surprising that you put Manaea ahead of Cotton because you seem more lukewarm on Manaea compared to your love of Cotton. Plus the projections have Cotton one ahead. What is the reasoning there?

    1
    Eno Sarrismember
    7 years ago
    Reply to  joedcamp

    Floor.

    0
    wily momember
    7 years ago
    Reply to  joedcamp

    right now my sense of the dodgers situation is that the most likely scenario – assuming no injuries, and expecting nothing from ryu – is that the urias extended spring thing will happen and the april 5 will be kershaw / hill / maeda / kazmir / mccarthy. wood’s pen work and health blips plus the contracts and general veteran-ness of kazmir and mccarthy all work against wood here.

    of course you can easily imagine someone or someones getting hurt, or a scenario where LA trades out kaz or mccarthy to some innings-desperate team near the end of spring if they’re showing well and wood gets in there.

    conversely though you can also imagine urias just going so hard he can’t be denied, or even brock stewart doing the same

    so he could wind up with a slot but it’s pretty far from a sure thing at this stage. like, really, really far

    -1
    Rainja182
    7 years ago
    Reply to  wily mo

    Man I hope that’s not the case, hard to believe that Kazmir is a better option than Wood, and it’s not particularly close IMO.

    0