The Detroit rotation trailed only the Washington staff in WAR last year, and the Nationals went out and signed Detroit’s best starter. Along with Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly will be pitching elsewhere this year, so the Tigers are without three of the six starters that made at least 10 starts for them last year. The pitchers filling those voids are….underwhelming. It’s an understatement to say the gap between the Washington and Detroit rotations is going to grow this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I reviewed my NFBC Draft Champions League results. I think some of my speculative saves (Joel Peralta early on; Adam Ottavino later on) could come to fruition, and I am pretty bullish on the depth of my rotation. I have a sundry of sleepers that could provide supplemental value: Daniel Norris, Randall Delgado, Jaime Garcia, Rafael Montero, Trevor Cahill and Robbie Erlin.

With that said, some of the feedback was helpful. I agree that based on my closing situation (among other things), I can’t possibly compete for the grand prize unless I get very lucky. I also do not have enough sure-thing starters to punt saves altogether to at least ensure a league win.

I don’t agree with a lack of depth on offense. I have CI/OF flexibility and a sundry of power (Justin Smoak, Travis Snider) and speed (Billy Burns, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor) on the bench. My second catching slot is in question, but Caleb Joseph could provide some surprise value until Matt Wieters returns. I like Andrew Susac, but I need to hope for a Buster Posey or Brandon Belt injury.

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Back when I first started writing about fantasy baseball, the formula for finding a sleeper was to look for young prospects on the verge of full time reps. The industry has transformed to the point where prospects are almost never a bargain. You’ll find a few sleepers making their debut, but they almost have to be completely unexpected, non-prospects. It’s easier to find pitching in this manner simply due to the nature of the position.

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With just a week to go before the 2015 baseball season is underway and my social life comes to an end as I hole up in my condo in front of my Extra Innings packaged up television, it’s time to shed some tiers. Starting pitcher tiers of course. And specifically, American League starting pitchers.

My tier rankings are based on projected value moving forward with no accounting for what the pitcher has already done (which of course is nothing at the moment, but is important to remember when perusing through my mid-season updates). Essentially, these represent my value projections if you were to draft a team on this very day. Though tier rankings are supposed to consider all pitchers within a tier as essentially interchangeable, this initial set of rankings is a straight copy and paste from my projected dollar values, so it will begin in order.

Before diving into the tiers, you must understand how heavy a role innings pitched plays when valuing pitchers. That would explain a lot of some of the more controversial ranks. Furthermore, do not mistake this list as a precise order in which I would personally draft these pitchers. This is certainly not the case. When it gets toward the later tiers, I tend to prefer a younger, potential breakout performer than an established veteran whose value is primarily driven by his 180-200 innings (propping up both wins and strikeouts), rather than strong ratios.

For your debating pleasure, my tiers have been named after the brilliant FXX show, Man Seeking Woman (of which I hope more than two of you readers actually watch).

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The Roto Riteup is back for 2015, baby! David Wiers and I will be your hosts for yet another year, providing white hot baseballing content on a daily basis during the regular season. For the next couple weeks leading up to Opening Day, we’ll be publishing on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, to keep you up to date on news of interest around the fantasy baseball universe.

If you have any suggestions for the 2015 RR — other than replacing Wiers with someone who doesn’t love My Little Pony — please do leave them in the comments.

On today’s agenda:
1. Odubel Herrera slated for CF in Philly
2. Garrett Richards not likely to be ready for first start
3. Devin Mesoraco leaves with a cramp
4. Select projections from your handsome author

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Hey y’all, I mentioned in my chat that I’d get a ranking update out there ASAP. I wanted to finish last night, but I couldn’t. This is a little dirtier than our original ranks for two reasons: 1) only three rankers involve and 2) I didn’t have time to weave the three together for a composite as Zach and Dan sent me files and I had mine on a separate file. Given the time crunch I’m in to get this out for y’all, I just put all of ours on one file, but separately. I can clean it up next week, but here it is for now! Oh and there’s no overall, but frankly I think positional rankings are much more useful. Again, I know it’s a little dirty, but I wanted to get something out for everyone.

Rotographs Late-March Update

A couple of changes for Spring Training. I am going to be doing more players, but with less information. Some pitchers I watch will only throw an inning or two. Also, some broadcasts don’t have radar readings. Finally, the camera angles are horrible.

Another change I will be implementing is grading the players on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

3/16/15 Orioles vs Phillies

Dylan Bundy (30 CV/55 FV)
• He was horrible. No control and or any decent pitches. He is not close at all to the majors. I based the 55 FV on just this start and I think that I may have been generous. He may have a ton of upside, but he needs to find the strikezone first.
• His fastball was 88-94 mph was generally straight with some possible sink. At 93-94 mph, he had no control of the pitch. He was finally able to throw strikes in the 88-91 mph range.
• He had a loopy 72-73 mph 12-6 curveball.
• He has walked quite a few batters during spring training (13 BB vs 9 K in 15 IP). If you are wondering if it is time to buy in with him, check his MiLB walk rate and see if it has improved.

Hunter Harvey (50 CV/60 FV)
• His fastball is 93-95 mph with some release side run. The pitch movement makes it a plus pitch.
• His 12-6 curve was 78-81 mph
• He may have a 2-seamer with a bit of sink.
• He just seemed afraid/cautious of LHH and issued two walks to them.
• He didn’t show a second breaking ball and the lack of it is why I am not higher on him. Too bad he got hurt, or I think he could have made an impact early this season. Read the rest of this entry »

Shortstop is a perennially shallow position, but for quite some time Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez and, to some extent, Jose Reyes have made it a top heavy position. Unfortunately, each one of those guys has an age that now starts with a three instead of a two, and they ain’t as good as they once was (yeah, that’s a Toby Keith link). More unfortunately, no one has supplanted them at the top of the positional ranks. There are a couple of young names that could significantly outpace every other shortstop at some point, but for now there is no one that seems likely to reach those heights. Assuming you don’t go with one of the aging, top options, you’ll be choosing between young guys with value potential but low floors, or more projectable, lower ceiling veterans. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been quite the offseason for Michael Saunders. He was traded, then had knee surgery. Then there were reports he might be ready for Opening Day. Now there’s news he will definitely not be ready for Opening Day. Even with that latest bit, he’s worth an investment for a few reasons.

Saunders has some power. He hit 19 home runs in 139 games in 2012. Since that was the highest HR/FB rate he’s produced and his batted ball distance was higher that year than in the two following, 19 feels like a good upside total. The move to Toronto will help since Rogers Centre boosts left-handed power and Safeco Field slightly suppresses it.

Saunders has some speed. He stole 21 bases in 2012 and 13 in 2013. He was much less effective last season, stealing four bases in nine attempts. Since he’s 28 and has shown speed every other season, I’m not going to buy his speed has suddenly dried up.

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One of the things I’ve repeatedly mentioned this draft season is the flat nature of starting pitcher values. For most league types, I keep arriving at the same general strategy. Since most pitchers project to provide comparable value, I need a plan to escape the herd.

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