How I View Starting Pitchers
One of the things I’ve repeatedly mentioned this draft season is the flat nature of starting pitcher values. For most league types, I keep arriving at the same general strategy. Since most pitchers project to provide comparable value, I need a plan to escape the herd.
As evidence that pitcher values are indeed quite flat, I present Exhibit A:
The above chart was hastily created using the output from the FanGraphs Auction calculator for a relatively standard league. I used the Depth Charts projections which are a combination of Steamer, ZiPS, and human playing time estimates.
Notice the range from around the 20th pitcher to the 70th. About $7 separates 50 pitchers. If we bulk up on pitchers in that cohort, we’re trusting luck and fate to guide out team to victory. I’m using three workarounds this season. They aren’t ground breaking, but they are necessary. They can be used in combination.
1. Acquire at least one elite pitcher
In this sample league, only a handful of pitchers possess values above $25. If I find the acquisition price for one of these studs to be rosterable, I’ll usually take the leap.
Setting ourselves up with an elite hurler puts us one step ahead of the competition. We’ll still need to fill out the roster around our stud. If I grab Felix Hernandez only to complement him with Aaron Harang, then I’ve probably wasted money.
League Observations: In many ways, it’s easier to draft top pitching in snake drafts. There is always a discrete price, whereas an auction for Clayton Kershaw tends to get out of hand. Even if you’d happily use the first overall pick on Kershaw, an auction can still take his price beyond a reasonable threshold.
I’m much less enamored with this approach in H2H leagues. I find it necessary to roster many more pitchers in H2H formats, although I usually use the same budget. As such, I wait for values.
2. Bulk up on elite relievers
This has long been a favored tactic of mine. If you miss out on the best starting pitchers (or even if you don’t), you can make up the difference with elite relievers. You can view a more detailed explanation of this approach here. I’ve included an example from that article (written in January of 2014) below.
| IP | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez | 204.1 | 14 | 0 | 216 | 3.04 | 1.13 |
| Fister and Chapman | 272.1 | 18 | 38 | 271 | 3.11 | 1.24 |
| Fister and Doolittle | 277.2 | 19 | 2 | 219 | 3.53 | 1.22 |
This is a comparison of Hernandez to two composite aces. The first duo – Doug Fister and Aroldis Chapman – wasn’t cheap, but it was still less expensive than Hernandez. The second is the bargain brand, combining Fister with Sean Doolittle. At the time, Doolittle was not a closer and Chapman hadn’t yet ascended to godhood.
Hernandez still offers obvious benefits by himself, but a composite ace approach does offer some advantages. The best case scenario is something like Collin McHugh with Wade Davis. Had you grabbed both players, you would have outperformed Hernandez without using a draft pick.
League Observations: Be aware of your roster constraints. This tactic is much easier in a league with many bench spots and/or a low innings pitched maximum. It also works best in roto leagues where there isn’t a built-in advantage to bulk up on innings. It’s better suited for auction drafts, but it also works in snakes.
3. Out-scout the competition
This is probably the riskiest approach. I love the tools we’ve developed at RotoGraphs, especially the work on Arsenal Score. I also watch a lot of pitchers and use the PITCHf/x tools at BrooksBaseball. The combination gives me a fighting chance to successfully incorporate uncommon data sources. By doing so, it’s possible to produce a top three pitching staff without spending big.
However, when you’re betting on the 110th pitcher to provide substantial positive value, it’s always a throw of the dice. I went hitter heavy in my home league, which led me to rely on my ability to identify sleeper pitchers.
League Observations: It’s necessary to take a portfolio approach with this tactic. If you need five starters to reach your innings cap, then plan to draft seven or eight. If your league is sufficiently shallow, you can also plan to use the waiver wire early and often.
A deep bench certainly helps. Draft type doesn’t matter, and the approach is probably safer in H2H leagues. It combines well with either of the other tactics discussed – especially the composite ace build. It’s also a natural complement to streaming, so it’s best suited to leagues without a taut transaction limit.
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I’m in a limited transaction (1 per week), no bench league, and typically do both one and two. It is amazing how much leeway having one Ace and two stud relievers gives you in this format.
Zoiks! One transaction per week changes everything.
You should really compare Hernandez + Decent reliever to make it apples to apples. It’s meaningless to look at what two roster spots produce compared to one.
Even “Hernandez + $1 7th inning guy” would be interesting, conceding it’ll be five saves or less.
Right. Every mid-tier SP/elite RP combo comes at the cost of a potential roster spot for an upside, late-round hitter, etc. King Felix not only provides value with his stats, but also his ability to do so using only one roster spot.
Was thinking the exact same.
It’s about the same as the Fister/Chapman line with fewer saves and a lower WHIP. The comparison is meant for purely illustrative purposes. It’s made no more robust by adding a random RP’s numbers to Hernandez.
Brad: I’m with you on looking for value and doing your homework. Eschewing the high priced arms doesn’t always work, but for me it works more often than not.
For example: in an AL only 10 team variable (6-12) keeper league with 6 x 6 scoring (OPS, + Holds, QS instead of Wins) Felix Hernandez was available last year because of inflation. He went for $44 in a $260 dollar auction budget. That is typical of the price he’s been going for in that league when owners have thrown him back into the pool.
I had a decent amount of cash and kept Sale at $25, and Dickey and Porcello at $12. I drafted Hughes for $8, Richards for $9 and Carrasco for only $5 (I did drop him but picked him up off the waiver wire for less later in the year.) I picked up Keuchel off waivers after his first two starts. (I crossed my fingers that nobody would draft him.) This allowed me to overpay slightly for Greg Holland at $18, but I didn’t draft him for the saves, I drafted him for the ratios. Picked up Britton (being an O’s fan helped there) in late April and I was good for saves the rest of the year.
Was I lucky? Maybe. But I knew that Hughes was undervalued because in 2013 he had a very respectable (~3.80 ERA) away from Yankee Stadium and now he was moving to spacious Target Field, which is death to most left handed hitters with any power.
I’d seen Richards pitch in late 2013 and realized that with that filthy stuff his low strikeout rate was unlikely to continue. He also had that wonderful GB rate.
And of course, just about everybody on FG and RG was in love with Carrasco’s stuff. I could verify their claims just by checking the Pitch/fx data, which is indispensable.
The money I saved on starters allowed me to overpay for Altuve to fill a void at 2B and compete for steals every week. I did overpay for Choo but made up for it by picking up J.D. Martinez for a couple of bucks on the waiver wire.
Does this type of strategy—trying to predict with what pitchers the projections will be wrong—work all of the time? No. But no guts, no glory. One thing is certain: if you overpay for somebody like a King Felix, you have so much fewer dollars to spend on gaps in your lineup and for the back end of your rotation. And there are always good starters that emerge on the waiver wire, and holds guys too.
Now I have a team that has a very good chance to return to the finals, because at 15% inflation, most of my starters are still cheap. And I have trade chips to fill holes, like CF.
This strategy won’t work with snake drafts, because of the random nature of how players are selected and because you can’t target the guys you’re pretty sure are value picks.
the concept is what’s important. You can use your own value pairings to see which pairing is better. And sometimes you don’t have a choice (in a snake draft)
Thoughts on Jared Parker when he comes back from TJS? Picked him up for a midseason boost and as a potential keeper in a super deep league.
I wasn’t much of a fan before the injury. I’d much rather have Griffin if we’re picking mid season returners
Have him too. But I’m short on healthy SP’s right now, so looking for second half help that I can stash on the DL and use RP’s to help cover the shortage.
Someone please offer me some insight on my league situation relating to SP (please bear with me)
12 team Mixed 6×6 (OBP/HR/RBI/R/2B+3B/Net SB; Net W/Net Sv/ERA/WHIP/K/HLD)
9 hitters (typical positions 3of) 9 pitchers
We all keep 5.
Stud 1st rd level guys are clustered on 3 teams. I mean its stupid Trout/Stanton/Ellsbury/Altuve; Miggy/Rendon/Rizzo; Cutch/Abreu/Posey (with Kershaw/Sale to boot).
This is why Im considering drastic measures. In light of the above graph, it’s dawned on me that trying to anchor my staff with at least three elites may be my best course of action.
I can keep (more or less) either:
Edwin/Brantley/Beltre/Grienke/Kluber
OR
Trade two low picks/Brantley for Matt Harvey and Chapman. I know Harvey is a risk, which is why Im buying low. I may be able to trump Kershaw/Sale and have the best staff. I have little chance of even fielding the third best lineup.
I know its a long post but I need the rotographs minds to help me overcome this deficit. Basically is it as bad as Im seeing it, and if so is my desparate thought process at least somewhat sound? Im looking to swing from the heels here.
fwiw, I like the aggressive pitching approach. There’s just one problem. Because the 6th P categories is holds, every P is devalued compared to standard leagues/publications. As such, it’s better to roster 6 category POS players. Brantley certainly meets that description.
Because your league is so shallow, you can expect several top 50 talents to go undrafted. In the final analysis, I’d say neither alternative is “wrong.” You’ll need to outplay your rivals either way. Go with whichever option makes you happier.
While keepers are being declared today so Im not 100%, I believe the only draftable top 50 projected talents may be a pitcher or two, and Beltre if I dont keep him myself (according to my modified Depth Charts ran thru SGP).
There are probably going to be 50 hitters kept out of the 60 players. It is typical to keep 5 hitters in this league. Probably in large part due to the point you’ve brought up regarding this being a 6×6. So the probability of landing a top 50 bat (I pick 9th in the first rd to boot) is very, very small.
I will say though that the gap between first and second tier SP is wider than in a typical league due to it being Net Wins. Even Felix many seasons has only been a +1, +2 even etc. So to even find a viable 4 category SP is very tough. I think I would have 3 of what may end up being a group of 8-10 that provide K’s, great ratios and will be a +5, +6 in wins.
I guess Im just trying to take advantage of the market imbalance in my own league. I hate keeping any pitchers in this league. IM always good at plucking them. Always have been.
Even if I did do this, Id come right back and draft a pitcher again. Id really drive it home, hopefully screw up the flow of the draft and sneak in a bunch of high upside hitters that will be overlooked while teams sort through the rubble for a pitching staff.
Thanks for the response. JUst looking for some validation as it’s a drastic tactic.
fwiw, I was more referring to the annual availability of players like Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera, Corey Dickerson, Charlie Blackmon, or JD Martinez. Looking at that list, perhaps you should de-prioritize outfielders 🙂
I agree, those players will be available out there. On Waivers for the most part. Not those names obviously, just this years versions I mean. All the more reason to not chase mediocrities early in my draft or to keep. Im hoping to draft your Pedersons/Betts etc of the world and try to find that next guy. That and injury bouncebacks like Bruce. Anywhere there’s a discount with upside.
So long as you are allowed liberal transactions, there are sooooo many opportunities beyond draft day to supplement your pitching stats. Figure a 12 team fantasy league that limits to 200 starts per season – you’re looking at 2400 GS for that league out of the 4860 (162*30) total seasonal MLB games.
If your average team in a 12-team league drafts seven SP (enough to fulfill the 200 start limit), you’re looking at 84 SP drafted which leaves approximately twenty “positive value” SP available post-draft according to Brad’s chart, and that only considers the value of an entire season of stats. There are literally hundreds of predictable quality starts on the FA line in a regular league.
How does K/9 with no innings cap change things? 10 Team H2H. We have QS, SV, WHIP, ERA, W, Ks, and K/9.
I’m thinking of avoiding RPs all together on draft day as I can usually grab a good one off the wire. Thoughts?
We are also 7 player keeper, so I’ve been able to hold onto Bumgarner, Sale, and Scherzer for the last few years
Not much. K with an inning cap is just K/9 in disguise with an added penalty to owners who don’t pitch enough innings. I don’t know your hitting stats, but the double counting of K is a huge exploit. Grab anybody with high K/9 and you’ll be doubling down.
That’s a weird set of categories. So much double counting.
Ya I’ll take it especially with my high K/9 keepers. Our hitter categories are 6×6 which includes OPS.
Does ditching RPs in the draft make much sense? Or does their K/9 value overshadow it. This is our first year with K/9.
Let’s put it this way. You will lose K/9 without relievers. However, I would also anticipate some wild prices on the guys who can notch over 12 K/9. So it might be the case that it’s smarter to figure out who will play the roles of Miller, Boxberger, and Betances this year. Can’t be sure until you’re in the draft.
I’ve kind of done this in my 12 team 5X5 mixed auction keeper league – hoping that with Kluber kept (and Alex Wood), along with Melancon and Allen, it would allow me to not draft another top-tier pitcher. Kershaw, Felix and Price are also kept, so bidding is likely to be high on the remaining elites (Scherzer, Sale, Bumgarner, Strasburg, Grienke). I’m a little on the fence this strategy will be enough, given the lack of IP cap and only 2 bench spots. My current plan is to see if any of the top guys come in under projection by a few $, but otherwise hold off. Does that sound about right to you?
I think if you’re going to do it, you really gotta go all in and add to that base. Not sure Alex Wood is going to cut it as a #2 if you’re planning on hanging your hat on pitching. I would probably look to add one more SP no lower than the Cole/Carrasco range and limit your late flyers on the pitching side. I don’t know your keeper budget situation, but Id imagine Kluber and Wood are coming rather cheaply. Even with inflation, I’d personally break the bank to secure Scherzer or see what discount, if any Harvey and/or Tanaka are going for.
Like I said with my own idea, I think you’ve got do draft all upside on the hitting side. No doubt this is a swing for the fences approach so get ballsy and jump into it if you’re gonna do it. I just wonder if it’s prudent. Im not sure of what I think of the idea myself, even though Im considering it. It goes against everything I’ve ever done or learned about fantasy baseball.
I tried doing it last year (mostly same keeper monopolies) and finished 4th. I didnt go strong enough after pitching as I chose to go early on safe hitters trying to shoot for mid pack in hitting categories with alot of plate appearances. But my offense sucked and I had to trade pitching, wiping out my edge. That and someone had assembled Darvish/Cueto/Tanaka/Ventura/Chapman/Betances/Kimbrel!
Eh since we’re talking starting pitchers here, looks like Salazar’s value taking a huge hit getting sent down today. There goes a rotographs favorite.
TJ House should now have a spot locked up now right? Hopefully even the #4 which means regular turns and not skipped. Hopefully.
Bummer. I was hoping McAllister was going to be an important holds guy for me in one of my leagues—he was pretty good as a relief pitcher during the last couple of months of 2014.
Maybe Tomlin gets the #5 spot in the rotation. Maybe even Marcum.
IMO the Indians would be wasting time using McAllister as a starter, since he’s already failed at it. As a set up guy or even a closer if something happens to Cody Allen, he could thrive.
And there’s always the possibility of a trade. The Orioles are giving Matusz lots of innings this spring, hoping somebody will be interested.