Five Actual Sleepers
Back when I first started writing about fantasy baseball, the formula for finding a sleeper was to look for young prospects on the verge of full time reps. The industry has transformed to the point where prospects are almost never a bargain. You’ll find a few sleepers making their debut, but they almost have to be completely unexpected, non-prospects. It’s easier to find pitching in this manner simply due to the nature of the position.
The new profile for sleepers is the overlooked veteran. Using NFBC ADP, I’ve pulled up a list of players taken after the 288th pick. That’s the end of the 24th round in a 12-team mixed league. Here are five who jump off the page.
Often, finding a sleeper amounts to locating a mediocre player with a really good role. At least until Hunter Pence returns to action, Pagan is expected to bat third for the Giants. At that point, I’d expect him to oust Joe Panik as the second hitter.
In all but the most shallow leagues, it’s rare that a regular three-hole doesn’t provide average production. In the case of Pagan, his high average, decent OBP, and speed should result in above average results in four of five categories. He won’t hit for much power, but he also isn’t Jason Tyner at the plate. He’s seemingly always injured, so just discard him when the inevitable strain knocks him to the disabled list.
Speaking of roles and Giants, Aoki is set to bat leadoff for San Fran. He was viewed as a platoon hitter prior to last season, but he posted hefty reverse splits in 2014. He should be a viable, everyday weapon.
Like Pagan, Aoki lacks power but makes up for it with a high average and good OBP. Since he’s hitting first, he’s only a three category asset. If he holds the role, a 95 run, 20 steal, .285 average season is feasible.
I feel a little dirty even mentioning Johnson. For years, he’s served as a sabermetric pariah – an example of an overrated, fringy player. Last season was a mess with a .263/.292/.361 line despite a .345 BABIP.
Johnson worked on adjusting his stance to improve upon his power. Given the Braves utter dearth of hitters outside of Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis, a hot-handed Johnson could find himself with a decent role. He has an above average line drive rate and tiny infield fly rate, so his floor is similar to his 2014 production.
I’m not recommending you drop Kyle Seager from your target list to grab Johnson. If you run into a preseason injury and have very few options for a replacement, he might be worth a look.
Others have discussed Smoak as a change of scenery candidate. I’m not sanguine about a sudden breakout in Toronto, but I do like that he’ll play in a hitter’s haven. I usually hate home/road splits (Rockies hitters are an exception), but they might be relevant with Smoak.
Over his career, he’s a league average hitter when away from Safeco. He’s 14 percent below average when in Seattle. Most of that is BABIP related, which is somewhat confusing. I won’t try to interpret it.
Without improving at all, we can project a modest boost in power. So long as he hits enough to remain in the lineup, he could bat sixth or seventh. That will give him a chance to drive in the leftovers from Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson.
Cervelli probably won’t have a desirable role in the lineup, but it could happen. He appears here because he has flashed above average offensive ability at a shallow position. He’s battled the injury bug in recent seasons, so it’s hard to count on much from him. If he works his way out of the seventh or eighth slots, he could provide a decent average with solid run production. He costs nothing to acquire.
If a player like Tyler Flowers has an acquisition cost in your league, Cervelli could be a nice, free alternative.
Bonus hits: Juan Lagares, Michael Saunders, Jose Ramirez
I’ve already written about these three players multiple times. Let it suffice to say that I like them.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Maybe Toronto can convince Smoak to stop switch hitting – career 82 wRC+ as a RH, 99 as a LH.
There’s a lack of full data here as to what hand he batted with in these at bats but I think it’s safe to assume he bats in a platoon advantage 99% of the time so I’m just gonna go with it. These are career platoon splits.
wRC+ vs LH home 53
wRC+ vs RH home 99
wRC+ vs LH road 111
wRC+ vs RH road 99
HR/FB vs LH home 3.9%
HR/FB vs RH home 12.9%
HR/FB vs LH road 12.6%
HR/FB vs RH road 15.8%
Considering Safeco plays better to left than it does to right suggests that Smoak’s poor RH numbers are mostly a product of the park. I wouldn’t give up on him as a switch hitter yet. Now he still strikes out too much and hits too many fly balls to hit for average but a move to a hitter friendly park will turn a lot of those long fly balls into HR so he may actually prove useful.
Good point, hadn’t looked at it that in depth. I agree that he could be useful, as really anyone is that can hit 20+ HR in the current environment, regardless of warts.
I love how Emcee made an interesting observation, and JP followed with evidence to counter the point. Question, investigate, interpret, no trolling or preconceived conclusions with cherry-picked evidence. It brings a tear to my eye!
I’m proud of our comments community. I like to tell myself that I helped shape it 🙂
Plus he’ll be replacing some portion of PAs in Oakland and Anaheim (and Texas) with PAs in Boston, New York, and Baltimore (and Tampa Bay).
As an M’s fan it feels like I’ve watched Smoak hit about 500 balls to the warning track over the last few years. He’s past the point where you can expect some unlocked power to show up, but even the current version put into a plus offensive park can be a decent player (especially considering he was free). He put up a 111 wRC+ and 20 HR in 521 PA in 2013 – if you limit his exposure to lefties and figure a few more balls leaving the yard, I wouldn’t rule out a ~120ish wRC+/25 HR season, depending on playing time. I also don’t think his negative fielding numbers are a true reflection of his defensive abilities.
I don’t see why you’d limit his exposure to lefties. In 330 career road at-bats vs lefties, he’s hitting .255 with 14HR and has a career .756 OPS and wRC+ of 111.
Lost out on Pollock in my auction so picked up Pagan as a backup plan. Obviously the power ceiling is lower, but I think they could return similar values this year and Pollock’s price is getting bumped up by his “sleeper” status.
I’m an actual sleeper.
Too soon?
I’ll show myself out.
If this is the kind of joke I have to wake up to, I’m taking another nap.
hahahaha
Love this. So tired of sites referring to guys like Yordano Ventura and Mookie Betts as “sleepers.”
Was I the only one expecting the return of ‘Notgraphs’ when reading the title?
Smoaks home road splits the last three years always have me shaking my head. From 2012-2014, he batted 47 points higher on the road than he did at Safeco.
Last year, there was a 100 point difference.
I can understand how Safeco suppresses power; I can’t understand how it would affect your batting average, since he never hit a ton of homers in any event. The same is true with Michael Saunders. While his home/road splits were not as pronounced or as consistent, his batting average was lower at Safeco.
Safeco’s only particularly stingy with triples, so my only guesses are psychology or it’s just a normal outlier.
My guess would be because Smoak is a fly ball hitter, fly-balls have a lower than average BABIP as is. A few more of those flyouts become home runs and his average could easily jump up quite a bit.
His line drive rate–especially against lefties–was much higher on the road than at home. Thus, a corresponding decrease in fly balls when he was away from Safeco.
FWIW, I’m guessing that his hitting approach was different on the road. The data seems to suggest that he was more interested in making solid contact on the road, and trying to power the ball out of Safeco, a losing proposition for players not named Stanton or Miggy.
I can say this in favor of Smoak chances for 20 HRs or better: the Orioles hitters have always talked about how much they like hitting in Toronto. The deep blue background and the absence of fans in the line of vision helps batters pick up the ball better.
Maybe he’s just depressed up in Seattle. Bummer
5 Actual Sleepers (for NotGraphs)
1. Snorlax
2. Rip Van Winkle
3. The Hare
4. Sleeping Beauty
5. Everybody’s Grandparents
This makes me happy
Just like every other person in a dynasty league, I have a half-chub for Smoak. It all just made sense at the start. The park, the player, he’d be a great keep for years to come! Then, he got traded to goddamn Seattle. I wonder how Smoak’s career would’ve played out had he stayed a Ranger. He’s one of my favourite “If only”s
If Saunders and Smoak stay healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them surpass 40 HRs combined. Maybe 50 if everything breaks right. It’s March. I’m Jays fan. I’m allowed to be optimistic.
Is it possible to get links to the articles you have on the bonus sleepers you mentioned? Michael Saunders’ FanGraphs profile doesn’t list it, and using the site’s search tool doesn’t seem to reveal any recent articles you’ve written on him.
It’s quite possible I wrote about it for another site or in a collaborative piece. I also try not to pollute the player pages with fantasy articles, so I don’t tag players.
While I very much respect your insight and ability as a writer I fully disagree with your sleepers. These guys are mediocre veterans who will provide value based on their adp. The issue is these guys are bountiful on the waiver……dozens of these players exist with a very limited ceiling, furthermore all these players are known.
Not to gloat but last year I chose anthony rendon in the last round. I look for exactly what you stated in the first part of this article. Young, unproven, but with a chance for at bats. While everyone was looking at taveras and polanco it is your job to see past that and find the guy no one knows about. It’s alot of homework and you need some luck but that’s how you find these guys.
Luis Valbuena and billy burns are two of my sleepers for this. I’ll can get into details later, but my point is these are two mostly unproven guys who are looking at full time at bats with a ceiling that is rather unknown. These two are truly sleepers and should be coined as such.
What kind of league were you in that let you snag Rendon with your last pick?
I have to agree, these are less than inspiring “sleepers”….
— Aoki: Best case you get Aoki 2013, less HRs since ATT kills HR. That’s not a top 36 OF.
— Pagan: His value was always his speed, so at 33, with injury issues, he’s a big risk, with low upside
— Johnson: Sounds like a platoon, and terrible walk rate
— Cervelli: D-first catcher going from good stadium to bad. Nothing in his track record shows good offense.
I’ll give you Smoak.
Anyone else a little shocked to not see any pitchers on this list?
That has to do with the nature of pitchers. Even at the upper end, a guy like Max Scherzer is somewhere between a 2.20 and 3.40 ERA pitcher. In that category alone, that range covers something like -$5 to $12 of value. Add in the other stats, and we’re talking about a $6 to $50 pitcher. Late round pitchers come with a wider band of uncertainty and a much lower ceiling.
The best late SP also tend to go before pick 288. Carlos Martinez is exactly 288 per NFBC, and he’s one of the last viable SP on the board for 12-team mixed roto.
Is Aoki ever going to sniff double-digit HR’s again?
Not if he keeps signing with No HR clubs. Milwaukee was the ideal environment for his power.