Five Actual Sleepers

Back when I first started writing about fantasy baseball, the formula for finding a sleeper was to look for young prospects on the verge of full time reps. The industry has transformed to the point where prospects are almost never a bargain. You’ll find a few sleepers making their debut, but they almost have to be completely unexpected, non-prospects. It’s easier to find pitching in this manner simply due to the nature of the position.

The new profile for sleepers is the overlooked veteran. Using NFBC ADP, I’ve pulled up a list of players taken after the 288th pick. That’s the end of the 24th round in a 12-team mixed league. Here are five who jump off the page.

Angel Pagan

Often, finding a sleeper amounts to locating a mediocre player with a really good role. At least until Hunter Pence returns to action, Pagan is expected to bat third for the Giants. At that point, I’d expect him to oust Joe Panik as the second hitter.

In all but the most shallow leagues, it’s rare that a regular three-hole doesn’t provide average production. In the case of Pagan, his high average, decent OBP, and speed should result in above average results in four of five categories. He won’t hit for much power, but he also isn’t Jason Tyner at the plate. He’s seemingly always injured, so just discard him when the inevitable strain knocks him to the disabled list.

Nori Aoki

Speaking of roles and Giants, Aoki is set to bat leadoff for San Fran. He was viewed as a platoon hitter prior to last season, but he posted hefty reverse splits in 2014. He should be a viable, everyday weapon.

Like Pagan, Aoki lacks power but makes up for it with a high average and good OBP. Since he’s hitting first, he’s only a three category asset. If he holds the role, a 95 run, 20 steal, .285 average season is feasible.

Chris Johnson

I feel a little dirty even mentioning Johnson. For years, he’s served as a sabermetric pariah – an example of an overrated, fringy player. Last season was a mess with a .263/.292/.361 line despite a .345 BABIP.

Johnson worked on adjusting his stance to improve upon his power. Given the Braves utter dearth of hitters outside of Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis, a hot-handed Johnson could find himself with a decent role. He has an above average line drive rate and tiny infield fly rate, so his floor is similar to his 2014 production.

I’m not recommending you drop Kyle Seager from your target list to grab Johnson. If you run into a preseason injury and have very few options for a replacement, he might be worth a look.

Justin Smoak

Others have discussed Smoak as a change of scenery candidate. I’m not sanguine about a sudden breakout in Toronto, but I do like that he’ll play in a hitter’s haven. I usually hate home/road splits (Rockies hitters are an exception), but they might be relevant with Smoak.

Over his career, he’s a league average hitter when away from Safeco. He’s 14 percent below average when in Seattle. Most of that is BABIP related, which is somewhat confusing. I won’t try to interpret it.

Without improving at all, we can project a modest boost in power. So long as he hits enough to remain in the lineup, he could bat sixth or seventh. That will give him a chance to drive in the leftovers from Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson.

Francisco Cervelli

Cervelli probably won’t have a desirable role in the lineup, but it could happen. He appears here because he has flashed above average offensive ability at a shallow position. He’s battled the injury bug in recent seasons, so it’s hard to count on much from him. If he works his way out of the seventh or eighth slots, he could provide a decent average with solid run production. He costs nothing to acquire.

If a player like Tyler Flowers has an acquisition cost in your league, Cervelli could be a nice, free alternative.

Bonus hits: Juan Lagares, Michael Saunders, Jose Ramirez

I’ve already written about these three players multiple times. Let it suffice to say that I like them.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

31 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Emcee Peepants
8 years ago

Maybe Toronto can convince Smoak to stop switch hitting – career 82 wRC+ as a RH, 99 as a LH.

JP
8 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

There’s a lack of full data here as to what hand he batted with in these at bats but I think it’s safe to assume he bats in a platoon advantage 99% of the time so I’m just gonna go with it. These are career platoon splits.

wRC+ vs LH home 53
wRC+ vs RH home 99
wRC+ vs LH road 111
wRC+ vs RH road 99

HR/FB vs LH home 3.9%
HR/FB vs RH home 12.9%
HR/FB vs LH road 12.6%
HR/FB vs RH road 15.8%

Considering Safeco plays better to left than it does to right suggests that Smoak’s poor RH numbers are mostly a product of the park. I wouldn’t give up on him as a switch hitter yet. Now he still strikes out too much and hits too many fly balls to hit for average but a move to a hitter friendly park will turn a lot of those long fly balls into HR so he may actually prove useful.

Emcee Peepants
8 years ago
Reply to  JP

Good point, hadn’t looked at it that in depth. I agree that he could be useful, as really anyone is that can hit 20+ HR in the current environment, regardless of warts.

redsoxu571
8 years ago
Reply to  JP

I love how Emcee made an interesting observation, and JP followed with evidence to counter the point. Question, investigate, interpret, no trolling or preconceived conclusions with cherry-picked evidence. It brings a tear to my eye!

ralph
8 years ago
Reply to  JP

Plus he’ll be replacing some portion of PAs in Oakland and Anaheim (and Texas) with PAs in Boston, New York, and Baltimore (and Tampa Bay).

Hutchmember
8 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

As an M’s fan it feels like I’ve watched Smoak hit about 500 balls to the warning track over the last few years. He’s past the point where you can expect some unlocked power to show up, but even the current version put into a plus offensive park can be a decent player (especially considering he was free). He put up a 111 wRC+ and 20 HR in 521 PA in 2013 – if you limit his exposure to lefties and figure a few more balls leaving the yard, I wouldn’t rule out a ~120ish wRC+/25 HR season, depending on playing time. I also don’t think his negative fielding numbers are a true reflection of his defensive abilities.

JP
8 years ago
Reply to  Hutch

I don’t see why you’d limit his exposure to lefties. In 330 career road at-bats vs lefties, he’s hitting .255 with 14HR and has a career .756 OPS and wRC+ of 111.