Saunders and the Gang: Late Value in the Outfield

It’s been quite the offseason for Michael Saunders. He was traded, then had knee surgery. Then there were reports he might be ready for Opening Day. Now there’s news he will definitely not be ready for Opening Day. Even with that latest bit, he’s worth an investment for a few reasons.

Saunders has some power. He hit 19 home runs in 139 games in 2012. Since that was the highest HR/FB rate he’s produced and his batted ball distance was higher that year than in the two following, 19 feels like a good upside total. The move to Toronto will help since Rogers Centre boosts left-handed power and Safeco Field slightly suppresses it.

Saunders has some speed. He stole 21 bases in 2012 and 13 in 2013. He was much less effective last season, stealing four bases in nine attempts. Since he’s 28 and has shown speed every other season, I’m not going to buy his speed has suddenly dried up.

Saunders might not kill you in batting average. Despite a career .231 average, everything related to his plate discipline is heading the right direction. He’s consistently swung at fewer pitches outside the zone and made more contact the past three seasons. His 2014 126 wRC+ was on par with Kyle Seager and Melky Cabrera.

His ongoing injury issues have pushed his NFBC ADP back to 298. Playing on turf in Toronto may not help those health issues, but since he’s leaving a fairly toxic situation with the front office in Seattle, I’ll call those two hypothetical effects on his value a wash. Assuming he doesn’t run into any setbacks in his recovery, I think Saunders can provide 15 home runs and 15 steals fairly easily, making him a fantastic value.

Five other interesting outfielders with an ADP of 300 or higher:

Drew Stubbs (308 ADP) – The most obvious reason he could be good this season is because he was good last season – 35th in Zach Sanders’ end of season rankings to be exact. His 2014 numbers do come with a caveat. He posted a BABIP 70 points higher than his career rate while producing career-worst walk and strikeout rates, so that .289 average from last year is not likely to be repeated. Even with an average that sinks closer to his career .246, Stubbs is an injury away from getting plenty of plate appearances and providing a nice power/speed combination.

Juan Lagares (319) – Fans are quite fond of Lagares, projecting him for seven home runs, 18 steals and a .271 average. Steamer and ZiPS expect less, but he should provide at least five home runs and approach 15 steals. The Fan Projections is awfully close to what Adam Eaton provides, at a discount of roughly 100 picks. Lagares may hit leadoff for the Mets and his excellent defense should secure his spot in the lineup even if he slumps.

Michael Bourn (324) – Last season’s 10 steals are not the new standard for Bourn as he dealt with a hamstring injury that sent him to the disabled list multiple times. A bounceback to the degree of 2013’s six home runs and 23 steals would provide good value at this point in drafts. He’s 32 and has also gradually swung at more and more pitches out of the zone, plus struck out more in recent seasons. But you’re not expecting a perfect player this late. Lorenzo Cain (197 ADP) might have more power hidden somewhere, but if you don’t want to bank on a leap in production from him, Bourn is a much cheaper option for what could be comparable stats.

Domonic Brown (328) – Monitor Brown’s Achilles injury as it is troublesome and might kill his value before the season even begins. Outside the Achilles, this is basically a shot that the 27-year-old had more bad luck in 2014 than he had good luck in 2013. ZiPS calls for 18 home runs, 61 runs, 76 RBI, seven steals, and a .256 average. ZiPS projects Kole Calhoun for 19 home runs, 85 runs, 71 RBI, seven steals, and a .266 average. Calhoun’s ADP is 92.

Shane Victorino (343) – Playing time will be hard to come by for Victorino unless there are injuries in the Boston outfield. Still, he totaled at least 35 steals plus home runs for seven straight seasons before 2014’s injury woes limited him to 30 games. 2014 also saw Victorino set new career-worsts in O-Swing%, Contact% and SwStr%. It’s hard to tell how much was age decline and how much was related to injury troubles that sent him to the disabled list multiple times. While Rusney Castillo could run away with the right field job, Victorino is worth a shot this late since he can be a top 100 player if he falls into enough plate appearances.