Top-250 Hitter Rankings & Comparison

by
January 15, 2019

It’s time to really get for the 2019 fantasy season and start and release out a set of hitter rankings to nitpick. In all fairness, some of the following projections need to be blown up. Normally, I just average several projections and use them for my fantasy values with great success. With a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ approach, I usually make sure one extreme value, high or low, doesn’t dominate my decision.

Some people get on me for just following these projections. Generally, I do follow them but just as a starting point. As I’ve shown this last week, I add in my own adjustments as I see fit into the baseline values. While Steamer has been out for a few months, other projections are now becoming available. Today, I just wanted to compare them to see who are some of the more divisive players.

I used the 15-team, AVG league Standings Gain Point (SGP) formula from my book, The Process, to create this ranking. The value is the average jump in the standings if the player’s stats were added to the average team. For example, by just adding Mike Trout’s projected stats, an average team will jump almost 34 points in the standings.

I’ve included the FanGraphs Depth chart projection, its SGP value, the SGP values from three other systems, and the standard deviation and average of the four values. I’m not going to debate the other systems or give them names. I’m just looking for differences and create a plan to deal with them. Here are the top-250 hitters ranked by the FanGraphs Depth Chart SGP value.

Note: I’m having a little problem coding in all the rookie projections but working on a solution. For now, just the FanGraphs Depth Charts are being used for them.

Top-250 Hitters in Standing Gain Points
Rank Name PA AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP Depth Chart Source 1 Source 2 Source 3 AVG Std Dev
1 Mike Trout 658 516 117 39 107 20 .300 .441 33.3 33.7 33.6 29.6 32.6 2.0
2 Mookie Betts 679 588 115 29 93 26 .303 .385 31.8 31.9 32.9 28.8 31.3 1.8
3 J.D. Martinez 651 574 101 39 117 4 .297 .371 29.3 30.1 32.1 25.2 29.2 2.9
4 Jose Ramirez 651 561 93 27 97 23 .284 .374 27.9 31.0 31.1 26.7 29.2 2.2
5 Francisco Lindor 658 582 100 29 87 20 .286 .357 27.6 27.7 29.7 25.1 27.5 1.9
6 Adalberto Mondesi 651 605 79 23 78 46 .252 .292 27.3 23.6 23.1 16.4 22.6 4.5
7 Trea Turner 644 577 92 17 67 40 .287 .350 27.2 28.4 29.1 26.9 27.9 1.0
8 Trevor Story 644 579 88 32 101 19 .271 .335 27.1 26.6 27.4 24.9 26.5 1.1
9 Giancarlo Stanton 609 529 97 44 109 3 .267 .354 27.1 26.9 28.1 25.4 26.9 1.1
10 Ronald Acuna Jr. 658 585 94 28 80 24 .279 .347 26.7 25.1 25.9 25.6 25.8 0.7
11 Nolan Arenado 651 578 96 36 108 3 .286 .357 26.7 28.4 29.2 25.9 27.5 1.5
12 Christian Yelich 651 564 96 27 86 15 .297 .381 26.3 29.4 28.7 25.5 27.5 1.9
13 Manny Machado 630 561 92 33 95 9 .288 .357 26.1 23.9 26.3 25.5 1.3
14 Starling Marte 644 587 82 18 73 34 .282 .335 25.6 24.7 26.1 21.8 24.6 1.9
15 Nelson Cruz 630 554 91 37 106 1 .282 .361 25.5 22.3 25.2 21.6 23.6 2.0
16 Bryce Harper 630 509 95 34 92 10 .267 .399 25.1 24.8 26.2 25.4 0.8
17 Javier Baez 637 589 81 29 93 18 .269 .313 24.9 26.3 27.9 23.4 25.6 1.9
18 Anthony Rizzo 651 549 94 30 95 7 .281 .385 24.7 24.4 24.0 22.0 23.8 1.2
19 Juan Soto 637 537 91 29 93 7 .291 .393 24.7 23.7 23.6 22.4 23.6 1.0
20 Alex Bregman 651 559 96 26 88 11 .279 .370 24.3 25.5 25.0 24.9 24.9 0.5
21 Freddie Freeman 658 564 91 27 92 8 .287 .380 24.3 25.2 27.3 23.8 25.2 1.5
22 Jose Altuve 644 574 88 17 81 17 .303 .368 24.2 26.5 28.1 27.4 26.5 1.7
23 Aaron Judge 644 534 98 36 93 7 .251 .368 24.2 24.9 27.6 25.1 25.5 1.5
24 Paul Goldschmidt 658 552 92 27 89 11 .277 .385 24.1 26.0 27.1 22.9 25.0 1.9
25 Joey Gallo 651 550 90 43 101 7 .225 .334 23.9 20.9 20.2 18.7 20.9 2.2
26 Kris Bryant 651 545 98 29 87 7 .275 .382 23.9 20.9 22.3 24.0 22.8 1.5
27 Yasiel Puig 595 524 77 28 88 15 .275 .351 23.6 25.6 23.2 21.2 23.4 1.8
28 Andrew Benintendi 644 563 94 18 79 17 .286 .365 23.6 24.5 24.6 21.9 23.7 1.2
29 Charlie Blackmon 630 560 95 24 73 12 .287 .354 23.4 27.2 27.8 23.8 25.5 2.3
30 Khris Davis 658 579 90 40 107 1 .240 .323 23.4 25.0 26.8 20.4 23.9 2.7
31 Rhys Hoskins 651 553 93 36 92 6 .249 .352 23.4 23.5 24.7 22.6 23.6 0.9
32 Daniel Murphy 616 560 83 23 88 4 .307 .360 23.0 20.9 23.2 20.5 21.9 1.4
33 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 595 532 81 24 83 6 .306 .368 22.8 22.8
34 Marcell Ozuna 630 572 80 28 96 2 .288 .345 22.7 20.7 23.2 20.8 21.9 1.3
35 Eddie Rosario 644 598 82 25 88 9 .277 .318 22.5 19.7 22.3 19.1 20.9 1.8
36 Xander Bogaerts 644 573 86 20 86 10 .286 .355 22.4 24.1 23.7 22.1 23.1 1.0
37 Rougned Odor 644 585 80 28 86 16 .249 .307 22.4 19.9 19.7 18.8 20.2 1.5
38 Anthony Rendon 644 559 85 23 88 5 .287 .372 22.1 24.8 22.6 23.2 23.2 1.2
39 Cody Bellinger 595 519 78 30 89 10 .257 .343 22.0 22.9 25.7 24.0 23.7 1.6
40 Jose Abreu 630 571 81 28 92 2 .280 .339 22.0 18.1 22.4 18.4 20.2 2.3
41 Miguel Cabrera 651 565 84 26 90 2 .283 .369 21.8 17.2 15.6 16.6 17.8 2.8
42 Miguel Andujar 630 584 80 26 91 4 .279 .321 21.8 23.3 21.0 16.0 20.5 3.2
43 Ozzie Albies 651 595 83 20 73 16 .273 .324 21.7 19.9 21.9 22.5 21.5 1.1
44 George Springer 644 554 95 26 75 8 .263 .353 21.6 20.9 22.4 23.2 22.0 1.0
45 Eloy Jimenez 574 526 75 27 83 3 .295 .342 21.5 21.5
46 A.J. Pollock 630 565 79 22 77 18 .259 .326 21.4 22.6 19.3 21.1 1.7
47 David Dahl 609 556 76 24 82 12 .270 .323 21.4 19.0 21.3 23.3 21.2 1.8
48 Justin Turner 644 559 87 22 83 4 .286 .370 21.4 19.8 19.6 19.2 20.0 0.9
49 Carlos Correa 644 560 85 26 92 4 .265 .352 21.3 19.5 21.7 24.0 21.6 1.8
50 Eugenio Suarez 651 563 83 29 92 4 .257 .348 21.3 22.9 21.5 20.1 21.4 1.1
51 Lorenzo Cain 630 557 82 14 63 21 .284 .356 21.2 22.4 22.3 19.2 21.3 1.5
52 Whit Merrifield 637 578 78 11 57 30 .275 .330 21.2 24.9 25.1 20.5 22.9 2.4
53 Victor Robles 603 543 73 13 64 28 .274 .335 21.2 15.0 20.2 16.1 18.1 3.0
54 Corey Seager 637 560 90 23 77 4 .284 .359 21.2 16.9 20.2 19.8 19.5 1.8
55 Matt Olson 651 563 86 33 93 2 .244 .337 21.0 19.9 19.1 18.5 19.7 1.1
56 Andrew McCutchen 595 507 81 26 76 11 .263 .362 21.0 17.6 21.7 19.4 19.9 1.8
57 Mike Moustakas 630 570 80 31 89 3 .257 .317 20.9 20.0 20.2 20.4 0.4
58 Ryan Braun 560 503 72 25 79 13 .265 .331 20.8 19.9 16.4 19.8 19.2 1.9
59 Mallex Smith 644 574 71 6 55 40 .262 .330 20.8 24.0 21.3 18.4 21.1 2.3
60 Nicholas Castellanos 644 583 81 24 87 3 .276 .335 20.8 21.3 22.3 19.6 21.0 1.1
61 Justin Upton 630 552 81 29 88 8 .243 .327 20.7 22.4 23.2 20.3 21.7 1.4
62 Joey Votto 651 525 90 22 81 3 .278 .409 20.7 22.4 21.6 21.8 21.6 0.7
63 Jean Segura 637 585 79 14 60 20 .284 .330 20.6 20.5 24.2 20.1 21.4 1.9
64 Nomar Mazara 644 577 80 26 89 2 .271 .337 20.6 17.2 15.6 19.1 18.1 2.2
65 Jose Peraza 644 596 74 11 64 23 .281 .322 20.5 20.6 19.5 18.9 19.9 0.8
66 David Peralta 637 571 82 22 76 5 .281 .344 20.4 18.6 20.8 16.4 19.1 2.0
67 Jonathan Villar 595 531 69 16 58 32 .250 .319 20.4 24.5 20.2 21.0 21.5 2.0
68 Shohei Ohtani 490 429 70 26 76 10 .273 .354 20.3 21.1 22.6 16.4 20.1 2.7
69 Gleyber Torres 630 560 79 24 81 10 .257 .328 20.3 21.9 22.6 16.2 20.3 2.9
70 Dee Gordon 644 604 72 5 50 36 .275 .308 20.3 22.8 21.0 20.2 21.1 1.2
71 Matt Chapman 651 574 84 28 87 4 .249 .326 20.2 18.8 21.7 17.0 19.4 2.0
72 Travis Shaw 630 551 77 28 88 6 .249 .334 20.1 22.0 22.4 18.4 20.7 1.8
73 Michael Brantley 595 535 79 17 74 10 .282 .344 20.0 21.4 20.7 13.3 18.9 3.7
74 Aaron Hicks 630 536 83 23 76 11 .247 .349 19.7 21.4 20.1 15.4 19.2 2.6
75 Mitch Haniger 644 565 80 23 78 7 .259 .339 19.5 18.6 24.1 21.2 20.9 2.4
76 Ender Inciarte 644 582 75 10 57 24 .275 .332 19.5 18.6 19.1 20.6 19.5 0.9
77 Kendrys Morales 630 560 78 28 86 3 .249 .323 19.5 13.9 14.2 12.3 15.0 3.1
78 Jake Bauers 630 543 77 20 75 16 .245 .339 19.4 16.8 16.5 18.7 17.9 1.4
79 Michael Conforto 644 549 81 28 81 5 .244 .345 19.4 21.4 22.8 20.7 21.1 1.4
80 Rafael Devers 560 508 72 23 80 6 .271 .328 19.3 16.2 19.6 19.1 18.6 1.6
81 Robinson Cano 630 569 76 23 81 1 .277 .339 19.3 17.8 21.4 18.7 19.3 1.5
82 Kyle Schwarber 574 481 77 30 80 5 .241 .354 19.3 16.3 16.3 14.6 16.6 2.0
83 Franmil Reyes 630 563 73 30 85 2 .251 .320 19.3 13.9 12.2 4.9 12.5 6.0
84 Tommy Pham 581 497 75 20 67 16 .256 .352 19.3 21.1 24.0 21.5 21.5 1.9
85 Austin Meadows 581 531 70 18 69 16 .265 .316 19.2 9.9 13.2 19.5 15.5 4.7
86 Maikel Franco 590 538 70 28 84 2 .263 .318 19.2 14.0 14.4 15.7 15.8 2.4
87 Stephen Piscotty 644 567 79 23 81 4 .261 .339 19.1 18.7 19.2 16.8 18.5 1.1
88 Gary Sanchez 550 487 74 30 84 3 .245 .322 19.1 17.7 16.7 19.8 18.3 1.4
89 Carlos Santana 630 525 86 24 81 3 .251 .367 19.1 20.5 19.8 19.5 19.7 0.6
90 Jackie Bradley Jr. 630 552 79 19 76 13 .248 .329 19.0 16.4 17.0 15.3 16.9 1.6
91 Eric Hosmer 651 578 75 22 78 6 .265 .339 19.0 18.7 19.6 18.4 18.9 0.5
92 Corey Dickerson 595 551 72 21 76 6 .275 .318 19.0 20.0 17.9 17.6 18.6 1.1
93 Justin Smoak 644 554 82 29 86 1 .239 .336 18.9 16.5 18.7 15.7 17.5 1.6
94 Tim Anderson 637 597 69 17 67 21 .252 .286 18.9 18.7 19.0 17.2 18.5 0.8
95 Jorge Polanco 623 563 74 14 70 14 .272 .332 18.9 16.2 18.5 15.7 17.3 1.6
96 Randal Grichuk 546 498 71 30 80 5 .243 .299 18.9 15.4 16.3 18.4 17.2 1.7
97 Jesus Aguilar 630 560 77 30 87 1 .242 .317 18.9 21.4 21.3 19.3 20.2 1.3
98 Josh Donaldson 560 471 81 26 71 4 .257 .364 18.8 17.1 17.3 18.6 18.0 0.9
99 Matt Carpenter 623 513 91 24 68 4 .251 .373 18.7 20.6 20.8 17.7 19.4 1.5
100 Marcus Semien 644 575 80 19 69 13 .251 .319 18.7 17.5 19.5 18.5 18.5 0.8
101 Adam Jones 630 586 75 22 76 4 .266 .307 18.5 17.4 17.3 17.8 0.7
102 Amed Rosario 637 590 66 12 61 24 .262 .304 18.5 20.3 17.2 16.3 18.1 1.8
103 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 616 576 73 21 73 7 .266 .301 18.5 15.7 17.9 8.1 15.0 4.8
104 Edwin Encarnacion 574 493 74 30 84 2 .238 .337 18.5 23.2 22.3 18.3 20.6 2.5
105 Joc Pederson 521 445 72 27 73 6 .250 .348 18.4 16.1 14.5 14.8 16.0 1.8
106 Max Kepler 616 540 76 21 77 7 .255 .336 18.3 16.9 15.9 15.2 16.6 1.3
107 Jonathan Schoop 560 521 69 25 79 2 .266 .307 18.3 19.8 19.7 20.4 19.6 0.9
108 Mark Trumbo 595 541 70 29 83 1 .247 .306 18.2 16.7 17.1 15.6 16.9 1.1
109 Wil Myers 560 492 69 22 66 16 .240 .322 18.2 17.4 18.1 17.9 17.9 0.4
110 Josh Bell 616 533 73 19 76 5 .270 .359 18.2 16.1 16.1 18.5 17.2 1.3
111 Cedric Mullins II 630 572 75 16 62 16 .257 .313 18.2 78.4 14.3 11.7 30.6 32.0
112 Paul DeJong 602 547 70 25 82 3 .253 .311 18.2 16.5 13.5 16.9 16.3 2.0
113 Andrelton Simmons 651 596 72 12 71 11 .276 .328 18.1 18.7 18.0 16.6 17.9 0.9
114 Miguel Sano 595 518 76 29 84 1 .237 .327 18.1 16.6 14.7 16.3 16.4 1.4
115 Scooter Gennett 637 584 73 20 80 4 .262 .314 18.0 22.0 21.8 18.9 20.2 2.1
116 Shin-Soo Choo 637 539 85 20 65 7 .254 .357 18.0 15.4 17.4 14.0 16.2 1.8
117 Billy Hamilton 595 537 64 5 45 40 .241 .302 17.9 19.2 17.6 18.0 18.2 0.7
118 Trey Mancini 623 566 72 24 76 2 .261 .318 17.9 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.1 0.5
119 Adam Eaton 616 534 81 11 55 12 .283 .366 17.9 17.2 16.1 19.5 17.7 1.4
120 Odubel Herrera 616 558 71 18 71 8 .267 .327 17.9 16.2 17.7 18.8 17.6 1.1
121 Jarrod Dyson 596 528 61 7 52 33 .254 .326 17.9 6.8 7.9 16.4 12.2 5.7
122 Ryan Zimmerman 540 485 67 24 80 2 .262 .328 17.8 15.0 16.8 14.8 16.1 1.4
123 Yoan Moncada 637 554 77 19 63 16 .236 .323 17.7 15.3 17.2 18.5 17.2 1.3
124 Elvis Andrus 651 592 72 11 68 14 .266 .322 17.7 16.9 18.9 20.5 18.5 1.6
125 Brian Dozier 560 488 75 22 64 11 .242 .328 17.6 20.6 20.4 20.0 19.7 1.4
126 Ryan McMahon 583 526 68 17 73 7 .270 .329 17.5 6.3 11.5 15.9 12.8 5.0
127 Jake Lamb 630 543 73 23 77 6 .240 .337 17.5 20.4 18.3 15.5 17.9 2.0
128 Ian Desmond 485 437 60 17 62 15 .268 .331 17.4 19.5 20.7 17.9 18.9 1.5
129 C.J. Cron 504 455 66 24 73 3 .261 .323 17.3 15.7 18.5 18.3 17.5 1.3
130 Kevin Pillar 609 565 67 15 66 14 .258 .300 17.3 17.0 15.6 13.5 15.9 1.7
131 Evan Longoria 630 579 69 21 78 4 .255 .306 17.3 14.3 16.9 14.3 15.7 1.6
132 Ketel Marte 623 557 68 13 68 8 .280 .345 17.3 16.5 15.0 14.7 15.8 1.2
133 Adam Duvall 658 596 71 26 85 5 .226 .289 17.2 6.9 9.8 15.8 12.4 4.9
134 Kole Calhoun 630 553 79 21 71 6 .243 .324 17.1 14.8 15.3 15.1 15.6 1.1
135 Kyle Seager 630 564 72 24 80 3 .241 .310 17.1 17.8 18.4 17.9 17.8 0.5
136 Jurickson Profar 616 544 73 16 70 8 .258 .334 17.1 14.9 15.1 3.9 12.8 6.0
137 Brandon Belt 630 533 75 20 73 4 .252 .359 16.9 17.2 12.9 13.3 15.1 2.3
138 Yuli Gurriel 560 524 65 14 73 4 .283 .320 16.9 18.4 16.5 16.2 17.0 1.0
139 Kevin Kiermaier 609 545 71 15 62 18 .238 .306 16.9 15.2 12.8 13.8 14.7 1.8
140 Tyler White 574 505 70 22 75 3 .249 .329 16.8 9.3 15.4 15.5 14.2 3.3
141 Enrique Hernandez 583 510 71 22 73 4 .247 .331 16.7 16.1 11.7 12.1 14.2 2.6
142 Harrison Bader 582 524 62 17 66 15 .245 .308 16.7 16.9 16.1 14.0 16.0 1.3
143 Marwin Gonzalez 595 533 65 19 72 6 .260 .327 16.7 16.0 15.8 16.2 0.5
144 Byron Buxton 525 477 61 16 60 18 .244 .300 16.5 11.6 16.4 16.2 15.2 2.4
145 Eduardo Escobar 630 569 69 19 75 4 .252 .314 16.5 17.5 15.7 15.8 16.3 0.8
146 Steven Souza Jr. 560 485 65 20 67 11 .239 .331 16.4 16.7 17.1 16.4 16.6 0.3
147 Jorge Soler 581 503 69 23 70 4 .244 .335 16.4 12.2 8.6 11.3 12.1 3.2
148 Jesse Winker 560 479 70 15 62 3 .284 .377 16.3 17.4 12.2 16.9 15.7 2.3
149 Salvador Perez 534 501 61 25 75 1 .252 .288 16.3 15.6 15.1 15.2 15.5 0.5
150 Chris Taylor 623 553 73 14 62 12 .248 .321 16.2 15.6 16.6 17.5 16.5 0.8
151 Ramon Laureano 525 468 63 15 58 15 .252 .321 16.2 16.3 16.8 9.2 14.6 3.6
152 Avisail Garcia 525 479 61 19 69 4 .265 .320 16.0 18.7 14.4 16.4 2.2
153 Domingo Santana 609 527 70 20 69 7 .237 .329 16.0 7.6 16.9 14.1 13.6 4.2
154 Jason Kipnis 616 546 73 16 67 7 .247 .321 15.9 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.0 0.2
155 Ronald Guzman 595 530 68 20 70 3 .252 .322 15.9 12.4 11.2 14.6 13.5 2.1
156 Hernan Perez 545 510 56 14 61 16 .253 .291 15.9 10.7 11.2 10.0 11.9 2.7
157 Cesar Hernandez 644 552 77 10 49 15 .256 .350 15.8 15.0 17.7 18.3 16.7 1.5
158 Starlin Castro 644 595 64 15 68 5 .266 .312 15.8 17.6 16.7 15.7 16.5 0.9
159 Max Muncy 562 475 70 23 69 3 .236 .342 15.7 17.1 17.3 13.6 15.9 1.7
160 Ryan O’Hearn 616 547 68 23 74 2 .235 .310 15.6 11.8 13.7 13.7 1.9
161 Jeimer Candelario 630 551 76 19 67 4 .239 .323 15.6 13.9 14.3 15.0 14.7 0.7
162 Alex Verdugo 560 508 61 14 63 7 .271 .327 15.5 11.2 6.3 14.6 11.9 4.2
163 Willy Adames 623 552 65 14 64 11 .248 .323 15.5 16.4 15.6 14.7 15.5 0.7
164 Brandon Crawford 637 571 64 15 70 6 .255 .322 15.5 13.5 14.5 11.3 13.7 1.8
165 Zack Cozart 630 560 77 18 67 3 .243 .315 15.5 12.0 14.5 12.6 13.6 1.6
166 Brandon Nimmo 630 527 74 16 61 9 .240 .353 15.4 16.8 16.5 15.1 16.0 0.8
167 Brian Anderson 644 570 69 16 66 3 .260 .335 15.4 14.5 15.6 14.9 15.1 0.5
168 Leonys Martin 525 475 62 14 54 15 .248 .308 15.4 14.6 15.4 11.6 14.2 1.8
169 J.T. Realmuto 547 498 60 17 62 5 .267 .323 15.3 21.2 18.0 15.8 17.6 2.7
170 Buster Posey 547 481 61 12 62 4 .287 .364 15.3 13.8 14.2 13.3 14.2 0.9
171 Tyler Naquin 560 504 63 14 64 7 .262 .323 15.3 9.0 6.8 9.6 10.1 3.6
172 Kevin Newman 602 555 53 6 56 19 .268 .313 15.2 8.3 3.6 11.3 9.6 4.9
173 Yonder Alonso 595 522 68 22 71 1 .240 .323 15.2 10.8 15.7 14.2 14.0 2.2
174 Renato Nunez 588 533 63 23 71 2 .239 .299 15.1 12.1 12.0 8.5 12.0 2.7
175 David Fletcher 602 559 67 7 57 10 .272 .312 15.0 10.6 10.4 12.6 12.1 2.2
176 Yadier Molina 527 483 59 15 63 5 .267 .317 14.9 15.8 15.2 12.9 14.7 1.2
177 Carlos Gonzalez 525 474 59 19 68 4 .250 .314 14.9 10.7 12.8 12.8 2.1
178 Nick Markakis 630 555 68 11 69 1 .271 .348 14.8 14.5 16.8 15.4 1.2
179 DJ LeMahieu 546 489 69 11 53 7 .269 .333 14.8 14.6 11.7 8.8 12.5 2.8
180 Dustin Pedroia 553 490 71 10 56 5 .272 .344 14.8 9.0 7.0 6.0 9.2 3.9
181 Adam Frazier 568 507 65 9 52 10 .273 .339 14.8 11.2 16.4 14.8 14.3 2.2
182 Alex Gordon 623 547 65 16 62 9 .237 .319 14.6 13.9 10.8 6.8 11.5 3.6
183 Yolmer Sanchez 616 559 66 12 58 12 .243 .302 14.6 12.9 14.5 13.6 13.9 0.8
184 Niko Goodrum 546 494 59 15 60 12 .238 .301 14.5 14.9 17.0 13.2 14.9 1.6
185 Jose Martinez 466 419 56 13 57 3 .288 .351 14.4 9.9 14.0 4.6 10.7 4.6
186 Greg Allen 490 439 53 6 45 24 .249 .315 14.4 11.3 6.2 12.8 11.1 3.6
187 Scott Schebler 490 436 58 20 62 5 .240 .313 14.4 10.2 15.4 18.8 14.7 3.6
188 Dansby Swanson 595 527 60 13 61 9 .248 .322 14.2 11.8 9.6 13.4 12.3 2.1
189 Peter Alonso 470 415 56 23 62 2 .241 .318 14.2 14.2
190 Yasmani Grandal 480 407 59 22 64 2 .237 .344 14.2 13.5 14.8 13.5 14.0 0.6
191 Roman Quinn 449 404 48 8 43 25 .245 .308 14.2 10.0 8.1 5.7 9.5 3.6
192 Patrick Wisdom 560 503 62 19 63 8 .225 .291 14.2 2.4 1.9 11.4 7.5 6.2
193 Manuel Margot 490 447 53 11 47 15 .259 .312 14.1 12.9 11.7 16.8 13.9 2.2
194 Ian Kinsler 526 472 59 14 48 13 .246 .312 14.1 13.1 9.3 14.3 12.7 2.3
195 Chris Davis 588 511 65 27 71 2 .203 .297 14.0 11.8 10.7 9.5 11.5 1.9
196 Delino DeShields 490 425 57 6 39 25 .239 .327 13.9 8.9 15.0 12.6 3.3
197 Jordan Luplow 490 435 59 15 58 8 .245 .319 13.9 8.7 4.8 14.5 10.5 4.6
198 Asdrubal Cabrera 490 443 59 16 58 2 .264 .323 13.9 9.9 17.9 13.9 4.0
199 Nick Ahmed 624 567 60 15 65 8 .237 .294 13.9 14.3 12.0 9.0 12.3 2.4
200 Orlando Arcia 560 514 53 11 57 12 .253 .302 13.8 11.2 12.5 11.6 12.3 1.2
201 Daniel Palka 455 412 54 23 63 3 .231 .294 13.8 14.2 17.1 15.1 15.0 1.5
202 Luke Voit 427 378 55 18 57 2 .262 .335 13.7 14.4 14.1 15.2 14.3 0.6
203 JaCoby Jones 560 509 58 14 56 15 .225 .284 13.7 10.1 8.8 8.7 10.3 2.3
204 Gregory Polanco 420 371 52 15 53 8 .258 .335 13.7 9.7 15.2 13.7 13.0 2.4
205 Joe Panik 560 499 61 9 52 5 .276 .343 13.6 11.0 11.9 10.7 11.8 1.3
206 Willson Contreras 480 420 55 15 60 4 .257 .340 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.1 14.7 1.1
207 Jed Lowrie 598 525 66 16 64 1 .243 .326 13.6 12.2 16.6 6.5 12.2 4.2
208 Jason Heyward 525 465 59 11 57 4 .269 .341 13.5 12.5 11.4 12.2 12.4 0.9
209 Logan Morrison 490 425 57 22 64 2 .226 .320 13.5 8.0 10.2 10.5 2.8
210 Kolten Wong 490 429 53 11 53 9 .262 .342 13.3 15.5 12.5 8.7 12.5 2.8
211 Ian Happ 447 382 54 18 55 8 .232 .332 13.3 14.1 14.4 17.6 14.8 1.9
212 Josh Harrison 525 480 58 12 52 7 .259 .310 13.3 14.1 10.6 12.7 1.8
213 Justin Bour 420 364 54 19 58 1 .247 .338 13.1 14.4 17.5 14.1 14.8 1.9
214 Hunter Dozier 595 537 59 16 63 5 .232 .297 13.1 10.2 9.4 13.6 11.6 2.1
215 Colin Moran 505 453 52 14 59 2 .265 .329 13.0 13.6 11.7 11.7 12.5 1.0
216 Ji-Man Choi 490 424 57 17 59 3 .241 .334 13.0 15.0 13.9 11.8 13.4 1.4
217 Jose Iglesias 525 484 51 6 50 13 .264 .308 12.9 13.0 11.3 12.4 0.9
218 Mikie Mahtook 490 444 54 14 55 7 .244 .304 12.8 5.2 6.8 8.5 8.3 3.3
219 Steven Duggar 616 550 55 8 52 15 .238 .307 12.7 12.1 8.4 12.7 11.5 2.1
220 Teoscar Hernandez 420 378 52 16 51 8 .236 .301 12.7 16.7 15.1 15.2 14.9 1.7
221 Joey Wendle 525 484 53 8 52 10 .255 .303 12.6 15.3 14.0 6.5 12.1 3.9
222 Martin Prado 595 544 59 10 53 4 .262 .314 12.6 7.6 6.6 10.5 9.3 2.8
223 Albert Pujols 420 388 49 17 58 1 .249 .299 12.3 12.9 8.4 8.2 10.5 2.5
224 Austin Dean 506 462 49 12 54 3 .267 .320 12.3 4.2 8.0 12.1 9.1 3.8
225 Danny Jansen 448 394 53 13 51 4 .257 .335 12.3 10.5 9.6 10.3 10.6 1.1
226 Christin Stewart 420 368 54 18 52 1 .246 .328 12.3 13.7 13.2 17.4 14.1 2.2
227 Lewis Brinson 525 482 50 16 56 6 .235 .286 12.2 11.5 8.6 9.1 10.4 1.7
228 Devon Travis 420 389 49 12 48 5 .264 .305 12.1 13.6 8.2 11.5 11.4 2.3
229 J.T. Riddle 581 537 51 12 56 5 .248 .293 12.0 11.2 12.5 9.5 11.3 1.3
230 Jay Bruce 420 375 49 17 55 3 .234 .307 11.9 17.3 17.6 9.0 14.0 4.2
231 Josh Reddick 385 344 47 12 48 5 .262 .329 11.8 14.8 14.7 13.6 13.7 1.4
232 Adam Engel 511 463 50 10 46 17 .218 .278 11.7 12.1 7.7 5.1 9.2 3.4
233 Albert Almora Jr. 470 435 51 9 49 3 .272 .314 11.7 11.1 12.0 8.3 10.8 1.7
234 D.J. Stewart 413 363 46 13 46 9 .241 .321 11.6 3.0 2.5 12.0 7.3 5.2
235 Billy McKinney 420 375 53 15 47 3 .242 .310 11.5 8.6 12.9 3.4 9.1 4.2
236 Mac Williamson 505 455 49 17 56 4 .227 .292 11.5 7.1 9.6 1.6 7.5 4.3
237 Wilmer Flores 350 320 42 14 49 1 .274 .325 11.5 11.9 12.3 11.9 0.4
238 Steve Pearce 343 302 47 14 48 1 .266 .344 11.4 10.2 9.0 8.5 9.8 1.3
239 Austin Slater 464 415 45 9 46 8 .257 .324 11.3 11.4 10.3 17.0 12.5 3.0
240 Troy Tulowitzki 385 349 45 15 50 2 .253 .313 11.3 7.0 2.9 4.4 6.4 3.7
241 Wilson Ramos 384 352 42 15 51 1 .261 .312 11.3 10.2 14.1 12.6 12.0 1.7
242 Mike Zunino 448 399 50 21 57 1 .209 .283 11.3 10.6 11.0 12.6 11.4 0.8
243 Evan Gattis 350 317 41 18 50 1 .245 .306 11.1 11.9 13.6 12.2 1.3
244 Welington Castillo 416 380 44 16 50 2 .241 .297 11.0 5.8 9.6 9.4 8.9 2.2
245 Luis Urias 575 506 59 8 47 4 .247 .327 10.9 10.1 10.6 12.0 10.9 0.8
246 Jordy Mercer 490 437 52 10 50 2 .252 .320 10.9 13.1 10.9 11.0 11.5 1.1
247 Ben Zobrist 418 364 50 8 44 3 .268 .351 10.8 12.6 13.5 12.2 12.3 1.1
248 Yandy Diaz 483 415 51 6 45 3 .271 .363 10.8 7.6 10.4 17.0 11.5 4.0
249 Francisco Cervelli 462 393 48 9 47 4 .257 .357 10.8 10.7 11.6 8.0
250 Nathaniel Lowe 350 311 42 13 44 2 .266 .336 10.8

The key hitters I’m looking for are those with Standard Deviations of two or more. I might dive into the others later but with so many having a value over 2.0, I’ll start with those from the top.

Notes

  • Is Adalberto Mondesi really such a divisive player? No shit Sherlock.
  • Nelson Cruz’s age is going to have his projections disagreeing. First, determining how many games a 38-year-old DH will play is tough to estimate. Second, the projection systems have few samples at his age to base their projection on. Each system may be off just a bit on how they deal with this small sample of old players.
  • Our Depth Charts love Joey Gallo. The 651 plate appearances are the issue and I would definitely bump it down. Miguel Cabera also needs his total brought down. And for this out of place projection is why I use multiple projections. The average helps to correct such outliers.
  • Charlie Blackmon and Khris Davis are definitely the players I’m looking to find with this investigation. The plate appearances are similar why the major difference? I see a future article coming on this subject.
  • Jose Abreu’s difference came down to a couple factors. Source 2 had a low plate appearance total but the other three were within 24 and had a range of 4 SGP. He’s a definite deep dive.
  • Miguel Andujar with a low Source 4 plate appearance total.
  • Whit Merrifield is another divisive player. The Depth Charts and Source 2 have almost identical projected plate appearances and an almost four SGP difference. Another dive.

In all fairness, I just keep churning this procedure from now until the season starts. I’m a little for focused on talent differences right now instead of playing time since the top two free agent hitters have yet to sign. Next up, I’ll dive into some of the players with major differences. Also, I need to get a pitcher ranking out to start rumaging through.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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OddBall Herrera
7 years ago

I’ll pass over commenting on the super high Mondesi rank, since that dead horse has been beaten.

But Votto down there at 62 and with a < .280 average seems really, really bearish.

Edit: especially considering Miguel Cabrera, who's struggled more and for a longer period of time and is the same age, at the same position, is up there at 41?

10
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  OddBall Herrera

All the projections agree on him. 20 or so homers and no steals won’t have much value even with a near .280 AVG. He’s basically, Nick Castellonos

3
MerlMember since 2018
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

No one plays AVG leagues anymore bud

-50
Pepper Martin
7 years ago
Reply to  Merl

Every 5×5 league I’m in is AVG.

18
jbona3Member since 2016
7 years ago

Just as an FYI, your SGP for Cedric Mullins from source 1 is a little…off

3
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  jbona3

Why, yes it is

0
jbona3Member since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

Don’t mean to be overly pedantic with it, just wanted to flag that since it could be an issue in the formula or excel.

3
WerthlessMember since 2020
7 years ago

Playing in shallow leagues, I’m still surprised how many guys in this list that I have no idea who they are. You could have snuck in a few names and I wouldn’t know if they were fake or someone traded for Drew Robinson.

6
cpierce77
7 years ago

Question you like Trevor Story over Corey Seager long term. Keeper League?

-4
Jay Dee
7 years ago
Reply to  cpierce77

Story…. Seagers a better real life player than fantasy

1
Jay Dee
7 years ago

Ill take the over on 32 sbs for villar if he gets the quoted 595 PA – Can see a realistic 13/48 here with 60+sb upside if everything cracks right, Im (back) In-

0
Kevbot034
7 years ago

Nomar Mazara and Randal Grichuk above Matt Carpenter? Those 2 have teased us so many times while Carpenter keeps doing big things.

7
Brass MonkeyMember since 2018
7 years ago

It would be interesting to see how these projections vary for points leagues vs. 5×5. Any chance that’s coming? I ask for selfish reasons as I have very little activity in categories leagues anymore.

0
StockMember since 2024
7 years ago

Must be a typo for Cedric Mullins. Points gained source 1 is 78.4, more than twice Trout. Maybe should be 7.84?

2
Aaron
7 years ago

Jeff, I assume these projected sources — outside of Steamer — aren’t yet publicly released?

0
Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
7 years ago
Reply to  Aaron

They are but not at FG

1
Aaron
7 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

Thanks! If public, are you able to share the link of where we can go poke around? (Other than Steamer, which we have here on FG)

0
rick1023
7 years ago

Not being a fantasy league player, my observation my be of little value. Nevertheless, I think Gregory Polanco is one player who will significantly outperform his projections, once he returns from the disabled list. He should be back sometime in early May – he appears to be ahead of schedule. Also, late last season he seemed to b finally hitting his stride as a player. If you draft him, I believe he will reward your choice.

1
Double JMember since 2020
7 years ago

Surprised the Hunter Renfroe doesn’t even crack the Top-250. Is that an omission or is the combination of low BA and the SD crowded OF the big knocks?

2
Slappytheclown
7 years ago

Mark Trumbo at 108 hahahaha. Interesting list, but just from eyeballing it I’d rather see a projection system that uses the players xBABIP last year to estimate it next year and also take off the SB. Seems like in the muddled middle in particular if you pick up, I don’t know, 12 SBs vs. 4, that’s a huge value bump. And I know every SB matters but it’s such an unpredictable category for a lot of players.

1
Aaron
7 years ago
Reply to  Slappytheclown

Agreed that given it’s relative dearth, small bumps in SBs drive bigger jumps in value. Not sure that it’s an “unpredictable” category though, at least relative to the other 5×5 cats:

It was actually one of the most *predictable* 5×5 cats by projection systems last season — here were the r^2 between projected stats and actual stats (ranges represent the differences in projection systems):

SB: 0.65-0.68
HR: 0.45-0.47
Runs: 0.36-0.41
AVG: 0.32-0.37
RBI: 0.30-0.37

With the odd exception of runs, those r^2 all improve by ~8-14% when removing the playing time element and looking at the stat as a rate per PA.

I’ll have to check xStats too, but my initial thought is I doubt they’re appreciably more predictive than, say, the previous year’s actual stats or one of the projection systems.

1
Chick McNixonMember since 2016
7 years ago

I’m curious about why Mitch Moreland is not on the list? He’s no great shakes, but has he really fallen that far?

0
wubbie075
7 years ago

Any projection system that does not have Khris Davis at .247 avg clearly has serious fundamental flaws so I will be discarding this entire list.

6