Top-250 Hitter Rankings & Comparison

January 15, 2019

It’s time to really get for the 2019 fantasy season and start and release out a set of hitter rankings to nitpick. In all fairness, some of the following projections need to be blown up. Normally, I just average several projections and use them for my fantasy values with great success. With a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ approach, I usually make sure one extreme value, high or low, doesn’t dominate my decision.

Some people get on me for just following these projections. Generally, I do follow them but just as a starting point. As I’ve shown this last week, I add in my own adjustments as I see fit into the baseline values. While Steamer has been out for a few months, other projections are now becoming available. Today, I just wanted to compare them to see who are some of the more divisive players.

I used the 15-team, AVG league Standings Gain Point (SGP) formula from my book, The Process, to create this ranking. The value is the average jump in the standings if the player’s stats were added to the average team. For example, by just adding Mike Trout’s projected stats, an average team will jump almost 34 points in the standings.

I’ve included the FanGraphs Depth chart projection, its SGP value, the SGP values from three other systems, and the standard deviation and average of the four values. I’m not going to debate the other systems or give them names. I’m just looking for differences and create a plan to deal with them. Here are the top-250 hitters ranked by the FanGraphs Depth Chart SGP value.

Note: I’m having a little problem coding in all the rookie projections but working on a solution. For now, just the FanGraphs Depth Charts are being used for them.

Top-250 Hitters in Standing Gain Points

Rank	Name	PA	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	Depth Chart	Source 1	Source 2	Source 3	AVG	Std Dev
1	Mike Trout	658	516	117	39	107	20	.300	.441	33.3	33.7	33.6	29.6	32.6	2.0
2	Mookie Betts	679	588	115	29	93	26	.303	.385	31.8	31.9	32.9	28.8	31.3	1.8
3	J.D. Martinez	651	574	101	39	117	4	.297	.371	29.3	30.1	32.1	25.2	29.2	2.9
4	Jose Ramirez	651	561	93	27	97	23	.284	.374	27.9	31.0	31.1	26.7	29.2	2.2
5	Francisco Lindor	658	582	100	29	87	20	.286	.357	27.6	27.7	29.7	25.1	27.5	1.9
6	Adalberto Mondesi	651	605	79	23	78	46	.252	.292	27.3	23.6	23.1	16.4	22.6	4.5
7	Trea Turner	644	577	92	17	67	40	.287	.350	27.2	28.4	29.1	26.9	27.9	1.0
8	Trevor Story	644	579	88	32	101	19	.271	.335	27.1	26.6	27.4	24.9	26.5	1.1
9	Giancarlo Stanton	609	529	97	44	109	3	.267	.354	27.1	26.9	28.1	25.4	26.9	1.1
10	Ronald Acuna Jr.	658	585	94	28	80	24	.279	.347	26.7	25.1	25.9	25.6	25.8	0.7
11	Nolan Arenado	651	578	96	36	108	3	.286	.357	26.7	28.4	29.2	25.9	27.5	1.5
12	Christian Yelich	651	564	96	27	86	15	.297	.381	26.3	29.4	28.7	25.5	27.5	1.9
13	Manny Machado	630	561	92	33	95	9	.288	.357	26.1	23.9	26.3		25.5	1.3
14	Starling Marte	644	587	82	18	73	34	.282	.335	25.6	24.7	26.1	21.8	24.6	1.9
15	Nelson Cruz	630	554	91	37	106	1	.282	.361	25.5	22.3	25.2	21.6	23.6	2.0
16	Bryce Harper	630	509	95	34	92	10	.267	.399	25.1	24.8	26.2		25.4	0.8
17	Javier Baez	637	589	81	29	93	18	.269	.313	24.9	26.3	27.9	23.4	25.6	1.9
18	Anthony Rizzo	651	549	94	30	95	7	.281	.385	24.7	24.4	24.0	22.0	23.8	1.2
19	Juan Soto	637	537	91	29	93	7	.291	.393	24.7	23.7	23.6	22.4	23.6	1.0
20	Alex Bregman	651	559	96	26	88	11	.279	.370	24.3	25.5	25.0	24.9	24.9	0.5
21	Freddie Freeman	658	564	91	27	92	8	.287	.380	24.3	25.2	27.3	23.8	25.2	1.5
22	Jose Altuve	644	574	88	17	81	17	.303	.368	24.2	26.5	28.1	27.4	26.5	1.7
23	Aaron Judge	644	534	98	36	93	7	.251	.368	24.2	24.9	27.6	25.1	25.5	1.5
24	Paul Goldschmidt	658	552	92	27	89	11	.277	.385	24.1	26.0	27.1	22.9	25.0	1.9
25	Joey Gallo	651	550	90	43	101	7	.225	.334	23.9	20.9	20.2	18.7	20.9	2.2
26	Kris Bryant	651	545	98	29	87	7	.275	.382	23.9	20.9	22.3	24.0	22.8	1.5
27	Yasiel Puig	595	524	77	28	88	15	.275	.351	23.6	25.6	23.2	21.2	23.4	1.8
28	Andrew Benintendi	644	563	94	18	79	17	.286	.365	23.6	24.5	24.6	21.9	23.7	1.2
29	Charlie Blackmon	630	560	95	24	73	12	.287	.354	23.4	27.2	27.8	23.8	25.5	2.3
30	Khris Davis	658	579	90	40	107	1	.240	.323	23.4	25.0	26.8	20.4	23.9	2.7
31	Rhys Hoskins	651	553	93	36	92	6	.249	.352	23.4	23.5	24.7	22.6	23.6	0.9
32	Daniel Murphy	616	560	83	23	88	4	.307	.360	23.0	20.9	23.2	20.5	21.9	1.4
33	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	595	532	81	24	83	6	.306	.368	22.8				22.8
34	Marcell Ozuna	630	572	80	28	96	2	.288	.345	22.7	20.7	23.2	20.8	21.9	1.3
35	Eddie Rosario	644	598	82	25	88	9	.277	.318	22.5	19.7	22.3	19.1	20.9	1.8
36	Xander Bogaerts	644	573	86	20	86	10	.286	.355	22.4	24.1	23.7	22.1	23.1	1.0
37	Rougned Odor	644	585	80	28	86	16	.249	.307	22.4	19.9	19.7	18.8	20.2	1.5
38	Anthony Rendon	644	559	85	23	88	5	.287	.372	22.1	24.8	22.6	23.2	23.2	1.2
39	Cody Bellinger	595	519	78	30	89	10	.257	.343	22.0	22.9	25.7	24.0	23.7	1.6
40	Jose Abreu	630	571	81	28	92	2	.280	.339	22.0	18.1	22.4	18.4	20.2	2.3
41	Miguel Cabrera	651	565	84	26	90	2	.283	.369	21.8	17.2	15.6	16.6	17.8	2.8
42	Miguel Andujar	630	584	80	26	91	4	.279	.321	21.8	23.3	21.0	16.0	20.5	3.2
43	Ozzie Albies	651	595	83	20	73	16	.273	.324	21.7	19.9	21.9	22.5	21.5	1.1
44	George Springer	644	554	95	26	75	8	.263	.353	21.6	20.9	22.4	23.2	22.0	1.0
45	Eloy Jimenez	574	526	75	27	83	3	.295	.342	21.5				21.5
46	A.J. Pollock	630	565	79	22	77	18	.259	.326	21.4	22.6	19.3		21.1	1.7
47	David Dahl	609	556	76	24	82	12	.270	.323	21.4	19.0	21.3	23.3	21.2	1.8
48	Justin Turner	644	559	87	22	83	4	.286	.370	21.4	19.8	19.6	19.2	20.0	0.9
49	Carlos Correa	644	560	85	26	92	4	.265	.352	21.3	19.5	21.7	24.0	21.6	1.8
50	Eugenio Suarez	651	563	83	29	92	4	.257	.348	21.3	22.9	21.5	20.1	21.4	1.1
51	Lorenzo Cain	630	557	82	14	63	21	.284	.356	21.2	22.4	22.3	19.2	21.3	1.5
52	Whit Merrifield	637	578	78	11	57	30	.275	.330	21.2	24.9	25.1	20.5	22.9	2.4
53	Victor Robles	603	543	73	13	64	28	.274	.335	21.2	15.0	20.2	16.1	18.1	3.0
54	Corey Seager	637	560	90	23	77	4	.284	.359	21.2	16.9	20.2	19.8	19.5	1.8
55	Matt Olson	651	563	86	33	93	2	.244	.337	21.0	19.9	19.1	18.5	19.7	1.1
56	Andrew McCutchen	595	507	81	26	76	11	.263	.362	21.0	17.6	21.7	19.4	19.9	1.8
57	Mike Moustakas	630	570	80	31	89	3	.257	.317	20.9	20.0	20.2		20.4	0.4
58	Ryan Braun	560	503	72	25	79	13	.265	.331	20.8	19.9	16.4	19.8	19.2	1.9
59	Mallex Smith	644	574	71	6	55	40	.262	.330	20.8	24.0	21.3	18.4	21.1	2.3
60	Nicholas Castellanos	644	583	81	24	87	3	.276	.335	20.8	21.3	22.3	19.6	21.0	1.1
61	Justin Upton	630	552	81	29	88	8	.243	.327	20.7	22.4	23.2	20.3	21.7	1.4
62	Joey Votto	651	525	90	22	81	3	.278	.409	20.7	22.4	21.6	21.8	21.6	0.7
63	Jean Segura	637	585	79	14	60	20	.284	.330	20.6	20.5	24.2	20.1	21.4	1.9
64	Nomar Mazara	644	577	80	26	89	2	.271	.337	20.6	17.2	15.6	19.1	18.1	2.2
65	Jose Peraza	644	596	74	11	64	23	.281	.322	20.5	20.6	19.5	18.9	19.9	0.8
66	David Peralta	637	571	82	22	76	5	.281	.344	20.4	18.6	20.8	16.4	19.1	2.0
67	Jonathan Villar	595	531	69	16	58	32	.250	.319	20.4	24.5	20.2	21.0	21.5	2.0
68	Shohei Ohtani	490	429	70	26	76	10	.273	.354	20.3	21.1	22.6	16.4	20.1	2.7
69	Gleyber Torres	630	560	79	24	81	10	.257	.328	20.3	21.9	22.6	16.2	20.3	2.9
70	Dee Gordon	644	604	72	5	50	36	.275	.308	20.3	22.8	21.0	20.2	21.1	1.2
71	Matt Chapman	651	574	84	28	87	4	.249	.326	20.2	18.8	21.7	17.0	19.4	2.0
72	Travis Shaw	630	551	77	28	88	6	.249	.334	20.1	22.0	22.4	18.4	20.7	1.8
73	Michael Brantley	595	535	79	17	74	10	.282	.344	20.0	21.4	20.7	13.3	18.9	3.7
74	Aaron Hicks	630	536	83	23	76	11	.247	.349	19.7	21.4	20.1	15.4	19.2	2.6
75	Mitch Haniger	644	565	80	23	78	7	.259	.339	19.5	18.6	24.1	21.2	20.9	2.4
76	Ender Inciarte	644	582	75	10	57	24	.275	.332	19.5	18.6	19.1	20.6	19.5	0.9
77	Kendrys Morales	630	560	78	28	86	3	.249	.323	19.5	13.9	14.2	12.3	15.0	3.1
78	Jake Bauers	630	543	77	20	75	16	.245	.339	19.4	16.8	16.5	18.7	17.9	1.4
79	Michael Conforto	644	549	81	28	81	5	.244	.345	19.4	21.4	22.8	20.7	21.1	1.4
80	Rafael Devers	560	508	72	23	80	6	.271	.328	19.3	16.2	19.6	19.1	18.6	1.6
81	Robinson Cano	630	569	76	23	81	1	.277	.339	19.3	17.8	21.4	18.7	19.3	1.5
82	Kyle Schwarber	574	481	77	30	80	5	.241	.354	19.3	16.3	16.3	14.6	16.6	2.0
83	Franmil Reyes	630	563	73	30	85	2	.251	.320	19.3	13.9	12.2	4.9	12.5	6.0
84	Tommy Pham	581	497	75	20	67	16	.256	.352	19.3	21.1	24.0	21.5	21.5	1.9
85	Austin Meadows	581	531	70	18	69	16	.265	.316	19.2	9.9	13.2	19.5	15.5	4.7
86	Maikel Franco	590	538	70	28	84	2	.263	.318	19.2	14.0	14.4	15.7	15.8	2.4
87	Stephen Piscotty	644	567	79	23	81	4	.261	.339	19.1	18.7	19.2	16.8	18.5	1.1
88	Gary Sanchez	550	487	74	30	84	3	.245	.322	19.1	17.7	16.7	19.8	18.3	1.4
89	Carlos Santana	630	525	86	24	81	3	.251	.367	19.1	20.5	19.8	19.5	19.7	0.6
90	Jackie Bradley Jr.	630	552	79	19	76	13	.248	.329	19.0	16.4	17.0	15.3	16.9	1.6
91	Eric Hosmer	651	578	75	22	78	6	.265	.339	19.0	18.7	19.6	18.4	18.9	0.5
92	Corey Dickerson	595	551	72	21	76	6	.275	.318	19.0	20.0	17.9	17.6	18.6	1.1
93	Justin Smoak	644	554	82	29	86	1	.239	.336	18.9	16.5	18.7	15.7	17.5	1.6
94	Tim Anderson	637	597	69	17	67	21	.252	.286	18.9	18.7	19.0	17.2	18.5	0.8
95	Jorge Polanco	623	563	74	14	70	14	.272	.332	18.9	16.2	18.5	15.7	17.3	1.6
96	Randal Grichuk	546	498	71	30	80	5	.243	.299	18.9	15.4	16.3	18.4	17.2	1.7
97	Jesus Aguilar	630	560	77	30	87	1	.242	.317	18.9	21.4	21.3	19.3	20.2	1.3
98	Josh Donaldson	560	471	81	26	71	4	.257	.364	18.8	17.1	17.3	18.6	18.0	0.9
99	Matt Carpenter	623	513	91	24	68	4	.251	.373	18.7	20.6	20.8	17.7	19.4	1.5
100	Marcus Semien	644	575	80	19	69	13	.251	.319	18.7	17.5	19.5	18.5	18.5	0.8
101	Adam Jones	630	586	75	22	76	4	.266	.307	18.5	17.4	17.3		17.8	0.7
102	Amed Rosario	637	590	66	12	61	24	.262	.304	18.5	20.3	17.2	16.3	18.1	1.8
103	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	616	576	73	21	73	7	.266	.301	18.5	15.7	17.9	8.1	15.0	4.8
104	Edwin Encarnacion	574	493	74	30	84	2	.238	.337	18.5	23.2	22.3	18.3	20.6	2.5
105	Joc Pederson	521	445	72	27	73	6	.250	.348	18.4	16.1	14.5	14.8	16.0	1.8
106	Max Kepler	616	540	76	21	77	7	.255	.336	18.3	16.9	15.9	15.2	16.6	1.3
107	Jonathan Schoop	560	521	69	25	79	2	.266	.307	18.3	19.8	19.7	20.4	19.6	0.9
108	Mark Trumbo	595	541	70	29	83	1	.247	.306	18.2	16.7	17.1	15.6	16.9	1.1
109	Wil Myers	560	492	69	22	66	16	.240	.322	18.2	17.4	18.1	17.9	17.9	0.4
110	Josh Bell	616	533	73	19	76	5	.270	.359	18.2	16.1	16.1	18.5	17.2	1.3
111	Cedric Mullins II	630	572	75	16	62	16	.257	.313	18.2	78.4	14.3	11.7	30.6	32.0
112	Paul DeJong	602	547	70	25	82	3	.253	.311	18.2	16.5	13.5	16.9	16.3	2.0
113	Andrelton Simmons	651	596	72	12	71	11	.276	.328	18.1	18.7	18.0	16.6	17.9	0.9
114	Miguel Sano	595	518	76	29	84	1	.237	.327	18.1	16.6	14.7	16.3	16.4	1.4
115	Scooter Gennett	637	584	73	20	80	4	.262	.314	18.0	22.0	21.8	18.9	20.2	2.1
116	Shin-Soo Choo	637	539	85	20	65	7	.254	.357	18.0	15.4	17.4	14.0	16.2	1.8
117	Billy Hamilton	595	537	64	5	45	40	.241	.302	17.9	19.2	17.6	18.0	18.2	0.7
118	Trey Mancini	623	566	72	24	76	2	.261	.318	17.9	16.8	16.8	17.1	17.1	0.5
119	Adam Eaton	616	534	81	11	55	12	.283	.366	17.9	17.2	16.1	19.5	17.7	1.4
120	Odubel Herrera	616	558	71	18	71	8	.267	.327	17.9	16.2	17.7	18.8	17.6	1.1
121	Jarrod Dyson	596	528	61	7	52	33	.254	.326	17.9	6.8	7.9	16.4	12.2	5.7
122	Ryan Zimmerman	540	485	67	24	80	2	.262	.328	17.8	15.0	16.8	14.8	16.1	1.4
123	Yoan Moncada	637	554	77	19	63	16	.236	.323	17.7	15.3	17.2	18.5	17.2	1.3
124	Elvis Andrus	651	592	72	11	68	14	.266	.322	17.7	16.9	18.9	20.5	18.5	1.6
125	Brian Dozier	560	488	75	22	64	11	.242	.328	17.6	20.6	20.4	20.0	19.7	1.4
126	Ryan McMahon	583	526	68	17	73	7	.270	.329	17.5	6.3	11.5	15.9	12.8	5.0
127	Jake Lamb	630	543	73	23	77	6	.240	.337	17.5	20.4	18.3	15.5	17.9	2.0
128	Ian Desmond	485	437	60	17	62	15	.268	.331	17.4	19.5	20.7	17.9	18.9	1.5
129	C.J. Cron	504	455	66	24	73	3	.261	.323	17.3	15.7	18.5	18.3	17.5	1.3
130	Kevin Pillar	609	565	67	15	66	14	.258	.300	17.3	17.0	15.6	13.5	15.9	1.7
131	Evan Longoria	630	579	69	21	78	4	.255	.306	17.3	14.3	16.9	14.3	15.7	1.6
132	Ketel Marte	623	557	68	13	68	8	.280	.345	17.3	16.5	15.0	14.7	15.8	1.2
133	Adam Duvall	658	596	71	26	85	5	.226	.289	17.2	6.9	9.8	15.8	12.4	4.9
134	Kole Calhoun	630	553	79	21	71	6	.243	.324	17.1	14.8	15.3	15.1	15.6	1.1
135	Kyle Seager	630	564	72	24	80	3	.241	.310	17.1	17.8	18.4	17.9	17.8	0.5
136	Jurickson Profar	616	544	73	16	70	8	.258	.334	17.1	14.9	15.1	3.9	12.8	6.0
137	Brandon Belt	630	533	75	20	73	4	.252	.359	16.9	17.2	12.9	13.3	15.1	2.3
138	Yuli Gurriel	560	524	65	14	73	4	.283	.320	16.9	18.4	16.5	16.2	17.0	1.0
139	Kevin Kiermaier	609	545	71	15	62	18	.238	.306	16.9	15.2	12.8	13.8	14.7	1.8
140	Tyler White	574	505	70	22	75	3	.249	.329	16.8	9.3	15.4	15.5	14.2	3.3
141	Enrique Hernandez	583	510	71	22	73	4	.247	.331	16.7	16.1	11.7	12.1	14.2	2.6
142	Harrison Bader	582	524	62	17	66	15	.245	.308	16.7	16.9	16.1	14.0	16.0	1.3
143	Marwin Gonzalez	595	533	65	19	72	6	.260	.327	16.7	16.0	15.8		16.2	0.5
144	Byron Buxton	525	477	61	16	60	18	.244	.300	16.5	11.6	16.4	16.2	15.2	2.4
145	Eduardo Escobar	630	569	69	19	75	4	.252	.314	16.5	17.5	15.7	15.8	16.3	0.8
146	Steven Souza Jr.	560	485	65	20	67	11	.239	.331	16.4	16.7	17.1	16.4	16.6	0.3
147	Jorge Soler	581	503	69	23	70	4	.244	.335	16.4	12.2	8.6	11.3	12.1	3.2
148	Jesse Winker	560	479	70	15	62	3	.284	.377	16.3	17.4	12.2	16.9	15.7	2.3
149	Salvador Perez	534	501	61	25	75	1	.252	.288	16.3	15.6	15.1	15.2	15.5	0.5
150	Chris Taylor	623	553	73	14	62	12	.248	.321	16.2	15.6	16.6	17.5	16.5	0.8
151	Ramon Laureano	525	468	63	15	58	15	.252	.321	16.2	16.3	16.8	9.2	14.6	3.6
152	Avisail Garcia	525	479	61	19	69	4	.265	.320	16.0	18.7	14.4		16.4	2.2
153	Domingo Santana	609	527	70	20	69	7	.237	.329	16.0	7.6	16.9	14.1	13.6	4.2
154	Jason Kipnis	616	546	73	16	67	7	.247	.321	15.9	15.8	16.0	16.3	16.0	0.2
155	Ronald Guzman	595	530	68	20	70	3	.252	.322	15.9	12.4	11.2	14.6	13.5	2.1
156	Hernan Perez	545	510	56	14	61	16	.253	.291	15.9	10.7	11.2	10.0	11.9	2.7
157	Cesar Hernandez	644	552	77	10	49	15	.256	.350	15.8	15.0	17.7	18.3	16.7	1.5
158	Starlin Castro	644	595	64	15	68	5	.266	.312	15.8	17.6	16.7	15.7	16.5	0.9
159	Max Muncy	562	475	70	23	69	3	.236	.342	15.7	17.1	17.3	13.6	15.9	1.7
160	Ryan O’Hearn	616	547	68	23	74	2	.235	.310	15.6		11.8	13.7	13.7	1.9
161	Jeimer Candelario	630	551	76	19	67	4	.239	.323	15.6	13.9	14.3	15.0	14.7	0.7
162	Alex Verdugo	560	508	61	14	63	7	.271	.327	15.5	11.2	6.3	14.6	11.9	4.2
163	Willy Adames	623	552	65	14	64	11	.248	.323	15.5	16.4	15.6	14.7	15.5	0.7
164	Brandon Crawford	637	571	64	15	70	6	.255	.322	15.5	13.5	14.5	11.3	13.7	1.8
165	Zack Cozart	630	560	77	18	67	3	.243	.315	15.5	12.0	14.5	12.6	13.6	1.6
166	Brandon Nimmo	630	527	74	16	61	9	.240	.353	15.4	16.8	16.5	15.1	16.0	0.8
167	Brian Anderson	644	570	69	16	66	3	.260	.335	15.4	14.5	15.6	14.9	15.1	0.5
168	Leonys Martin	525	475	62	14	54	15	.248	.308	15.4	14.6	15.4	11.6	14.2	1.8
169	J.T. Realmuto	547	498	60	17	62	5	.267	.323	15.3	21.2	18.0	15.8	17.6	2.7
170	Buster Posey	547	481	61	12	62	4	.287	.364	15.3	13.8	14.2	13.3	14.2	0.9
171	Tyler Naquin	560	504	63	14	64	7	.262	.323	15.3	9.0	6.8	9.6	10.1	3.6
172	Kevin Newman	602	555	53	6	56	19	.268	.313	15.2	8.3	3.6	11.3	9.6	4.9
173	Yonder Alonso	595	522	68	22	71	1	.240	.323	15.2	10.8	15.7	14.2	14.0	2.2
174	Renato Nunez	588	533	63	23	71	2	.239	.299	15.1	12.1	12.0	8.5	12.0	2.7
175	David Fletcher	602	559	67	7	57	10	.272	.312	15.0	10.6	10.4	12.6	12.1	2.2
176	Yadier Molina	527	483	59	15	63	5	.267	.317	14.9	15.8	15.2	12.9	14.7	1.2
177	Carlos Gonzalez	525	474	59	19	68	4	.250	.314	14.9	10.7	12.8		12.8	2.1
178	Nick Markakis	630	555	68	11	69	1	.271	.348	14.8	14.5	16.8		15.4	1.2
179	DJ LeMahieu	546	489	69	11	53	7	.269	.333	14.8	14.6	11.7	8.8	12.5	2.8
180	Dustin Pedroia	553	490	71	10	56	5	.272	.344	14.8	9.0	7.0	6.0	9.2	3.9
181	Adam Frazier	568	507	65	9	52	10	.273	.339	14.8	11.2	16.4	14.8	14.3	2.2
182	Alex Gordon	623	547	65	16	62	9	.237	.319	14.6	13.9	10.8	6.8	11.5	3.6
183	Yolmer Sanchez	616	559	66	12	58	12	.243	.302	14.6	12.9	14.5	13.6	13.9	0.8
184	Niko Goodrum	546	494	59	15	60	12	.238	.301	14.5	14.9	17.0	13.2	14.9	1.6
185	Jose Martinez	466	419	56	13	57	3	.288	.351	14.4	9.9	14.0	4.6	10.7	4.6
186	Greg Allen	490	439	53	6	45	24	.249	.315	14.4	11.3	6.2	12.8	11.1	3.6
187	Scott Schebler	490	436	58	20	62	5	.240	.313	14.4	10.2	15.4	18.8	14.7	3.6
188	Dansby Swanson	595	527	60	13	61	9	.248	.322	14.2	11.8	9.6	13.4	12.3	2.1
189	Peter Alonso	470	415	56	23	62	2	.241	.318	14.2				14.2
190	Yasmani Grandal	480	407	59	22	64	2	.237	.344	14.2	13.5	14.8	13.5	14.0	0.6
191	Roman Quinn	449	404	48	8	43	25	.245	.308	14.2	10.0	8.1	5.7	9.5	3.6
192	Patrick Wisdom	560	503	62	19	63	8	.225	.291	14.2	2.4	1.9	11.4	7.5	6.2
193	Manuel Margot	490	447	53	11	47	15	.259	.312	14.1	12.9	11.7	16.8	13.9	2.2
194	Ian Kinsler	526	472	59	14	48	13	.246	.312	14.1	13.1	9.3	14.3	12.7	2.3
195	Chris Davis	588	511	65	27	71	2	.203	.297	14.0	11.8	10.7	9.5	11.5	1.9
196	Delino DeShields	490	425	57	6	39	25	.239	.327	13.9		8.9	15.0	12.6	3.3
197	Jordan Luplow	490	435	59	15	58	8	.245	.319	13.9	8.7	4.8	14.5	10.5	4.6
198	Asdrubal Cabrera	490	443	59	16	58	2	.264	.323	13.9	9.9	17.9		13.9	4.0
199	Nick Ahmed	624	567	60	15	65	8	.237	.294	13.9	14.3	12.0	9.0	12.3	2.4
200	Orlando Arcia	560	514	53	11	57	12	.253	.302	13.8	11.2	12.5	11.6	12.3	1.2
201	Daniel Palka	455	412	54	23	63	3	.231	.294	13.8	14.2	17.1	15.1	15.0	1.5
202	Luke Voit	427	378	55	18	57	2	.262	.335	13.7	14.4	14.1	15.2	14.3	0.6
203	JaCoby Jones	560	509	58	14	56	15	.225	.284	13.7	10.1	8.8	8.7	10.3	2.3
204	Gregory Polanco	420	371	52	15	53	8	.258	.335	13.7	9.7	15.2	13.7	13.0	2.4
205	Joe Panik	560	499	61	9	52	5	.276	.343	13.6	11.0	11.9	10.7	11.8	1.3
206	Willson Contreras	480	420	55	15	60	4	.257	.340	13.6	14.3	15.0	16.1	14.7	1.1
207	Jed Lowrie	598	525	66	16	64	1	.243	.326	13.6	12.2	16.6	6.5	12.2	4.2
208	Jason Heyward	525	465	59	11	57	4	.269	.341	13.5	12.5	11.4	12.2	12.4	0.9
209	Logan Morrison	490	425	57	22	64	2	.226	.320	13.5	8.0	10.2		10.5	2.8
210	Kolten Wong	490	429	53	11	53	9	.262	.342	13.3	15.5	12.5	8.7	12.5	2.8
211	Ian Happ	447	382	54	18	55	8	.232	.332	13.3	14.1	14.4	17.6	14.8	1.9
212	Josh Harrison	525	480	58	12	52	7	.259	.310	13.3	14.1	10.6		12.7	1.8
213	Justin Bour	420	364	54	19	58	1	.247	.338	13.1	14.4	17.5	14.1	14.8	1.9
214	Hunter Dozier	595	537	59	16	63	5	.232	.297	13.1	10.2	9.4	13.6	11.6	2.1
215	Colin Moran	505	453	52	14	59	2	.265	.329	13.0	13.6	11.7	11.7	12.5	1.0
216	Ji-Man Choi	490	424	57	17	59	3	.241	.334	13.0	15.0	13.9	11.8	13.4	1.4
217	Jose Iglesias	525	484	51	6	50	13	.264	.308	12.9	13.0	11.3		12.4	0.9
218	Mikie Mahtook	490	444	54	14	55	7	.244	.304	12.8	5.2	6.8	8.5	8.3	3.3
219	Steven Duggar	616	550	55	8	52	15	.238	.307	12.7	12.1	8.4	12.7	11.5	2.1
220	Teoscar Hernandez	420	378	52	16	51	8	.236	.301	12.7	16.7	15.1	15.2	14.9	1.7
221	Joey Wendle	525	484	53	8	52	10	.255	.303	12.6	15.3	14.0	6.5	12.1	3.9
222	Martin Prado	595	544	59	10	53	4	.262	.314	12.6	7.6	6.6	10.5	9.3	2.8
223	Albert Pujols	420	388	49	17	58	1	.249	.299	12.3	12.9	8.4	8.2	10.5	2.5
224	Austin Dean	506	462	49	12	54	3	.267	.320	12.3	4.2	8.0	12.1	9.1	3.8
225	Danny Jansen	448	394	53	13	51	4	.257	.335	12.3	10.5	9.6	10.3	10.6	1.1
226	Christin Stewart	420	368	54	18	52	1	.246	.328	12.3	13.7	13.2	17.4	14.1	2.2
227	Lewis Brinson	525	482	50	16	56	6	.235	.286	12.2	11.5	8.6	9.1	10.4	1.7
228	Devon Travis	420	389	49	12	48	5	.264	.305	12.1	13.6	8.2	11.5	11.4	2.3
229	J.T. Riddle	581	537	51	12	56	5	.248	.293	12.0	11.2	12.5	9.5	11.3	1.3
230	Jay Bruce	420	375	49	17	55	3	.234	.307	11.9	17.3	17.6	9.0	14.0	4.2
231	Josh Reddick	385	344	47	12	48	5	.262	.329	11.8	14.8	14.7	13.6	13.7	1.4
232	Adam Engel	511	463	50	10	46	17	.218	.278	11.7	12.1	7.7	5.1	9.2	3.4
233	Albert Almora Jr.	470	435	51	9	49	3	.272	.314	11.7	11.1	12.0	8.3	10.8	1.7
234	D.J. Stewart	413	363	46	13	46	9	.241	.321	11.6	3.0	2.5	12.0	7.3	5.2
235	Billy McKinney	420	375	53	15	47	3	.242	.310	11.5	8.6	12.9	3.4	9.1	4.2
236	Mac Williamson	505	455	49	17	56	4	.227	.292	11.5	7.1	9.6	1.6	7.5	4.3
237	Wilmer Flores	350	320	42	14	49	1	.274	.325	11.5	11.9	12.3		11.9	0.4
238	Steve Pearce	343	302	47	14	48	1	.266	.344	11.4	10.2	9.0	8.5	9.8	1.3
239	Austin Slater	464	415	45	9	46	8	.257	.324	11.3	11.4	10.3	17.0	12.5	3.0
240	Troy Tulowitzki	385	349	45	15	50	2	.253	.313	11.3	7.0	2.9	4.4	6.4	3.7
241	Wilson Ramos	384	352	42	15	51	1	.261	.312	11.3	10.2	14.1	12.6	12.0	1.7
242	Mike Zunino	448	399	50	21	57	1	.209	.283	11.3	10.6	11.0	12.6	11.4	0.8
243	Evan Gattis	350	317	41	18	50	1	.245	.306	11.1	11.9	13.6		12.2	1.3
244	Welington Castillo	416	380	44	16	50	2	.241	.297	11.0	5.8	9.6	9.4	8.9	2.2
245	Luis Urias	575	506	59	8	47	4	.247	.327	10.9	10.1	10.6	12.0	10.9	0.8
246	Jordy Mercer	490	437	52	10	50	2	.252	.320	10.9	13.1	10.9	11.0	11.5	1.1
247	Ben Zobrist	418	364	50	8	44	3	.268	.351	10.8	12.6	13.5	12.2	12.3	1.1
248	Yandy Diaz	483	415	51	6	45	3	.271	.363	10.8	7.6	10.4	17.0	11.5	4.0
249	Francisco Cervelli	462	393	48	9	47	4	.257	.357	10.8	10.7	11.6	8.0
250	Nathaniel Lowe	350	311	42	13	44	2	.266	.336	10.8

The key hitters I’m looking for are those with Standard Deviations of two or more. I might dive into the others later but with so many having a value over 2.0, I’ll start with those from the top.

Notes

Is Adalberto Mondesi really such a divisive player? No shit Sherlock.
Nelson Cruz’s age is going to have his projections disagreeing. First, determining how many games a 38-year-old DH will play is tough to estimate. Second, the projection systems have few samples at his age to base their projection on. Each system may be off just a bit on how they deal with this small sample of old players.
Our Depth Charts love Joey Gallo. The 651 plate appearances are the issue and I would definitely bump it down. Miguel Cabera also needs his total brought down. And for this out of place projection is why I use multiple projections. The average helps to correct such outliers.
Charlie Blackmon and Khris Davis are definitely the players I’m looking to find with this investigation. The plate appearances are similar why the major difference? I see a future article coming on this subject.
Jose Abreu’s difference came down to a couple factors. Source 2 had a low plate appearance total but the other three were within 24 and had a range of 4 SGP. He’s a definite deep dive.
Miguel Andujar with a low Source 4 plate appearance total.
Whit Merrifield is another divisive player. The Depth Charts and Source 2 have almost identical projected plate appearances and an almost four SGP difference. Another dive.

In all fairness, I just keep churning this procedure from now until the season starts. I’m a little for focused on talent differences right now instead of playing time since the top two free agent hitters have yet to sign. Next up, I’ll dive into some of the players with major differences. Also, I need to get a pitcher ranking out to start rumaging through.

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OddBall Herrera

6 years ago

I’ll pass over commenting on the super high Mondesi rank, since that dead horse has been beaten.

But Votto down there at 62 and with a < .280 average seems really, really bearish.

Edit: especially considering Miguel Cabrera, who's struggled more and for a longer period of time and is the same age, at the same position, is up there at 41?

Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff

Reply to OddBall Herrera

All the projections agree on him. 20 or so homers and no steals won’t have much value even with a near .280 AVG. He’s basically, Nick Castellonos

MerlMember since 2018

Reply to Jeff Zimmerman

No one plays AVG leagues anymore bud

-50

Pepper Martin

Reply to Merl

Every 5×5 league I’m in is AVG.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG