Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/15/2019

Here’s the transcript to today’s fantasy chat.

3:59
Need More Bangers: hi brad!

3:59
Brad Johnson: Hi Bangers!

3:59
Brad Johnson: We’ll get started in a couple minutes.

4:01
Gabe Kapler: Who gets more saves- Robertson or Seranthony?

4:01
Brad Johnson: Robertson is a pretty safe bet

4:01
Brad Johnson: Not a lock by any means, but it’s the percentage play

4:01
Scott: Thoughts on Clevinger as a #2 fantasy P to put behind my Verlander? Thanks!

4:02
Brad Johnson: I see nothing wrong with that Clevinger is a good source of strikeouts and wins, and he should be no worse than neutral in ERA and WHIP too.

4:02
Do You Wanna Build A Stroman: Free Senzel and Tucker, where would you trade them and who would you want headlining the return for each?

4:02
Brad Johnson: This one is meaty…

4:03
Brad Johnson: I’ll focus on Tucker first who I think has an obvious place in the Braves outfield for a collection of young arms.

4:03
Brad Johnson: As for Senzel, the Padres seem to be the team that’s semi-trying and in need of a 3B

4:03
Brad Johnson: They have a deep pool of prospects to try for 1-for-1 or 2-for-1 swaps

4:04
Brad Johnson: The Rangers could use a long term guy, but I don’t see many exciting fits for the Reds there.

4:04
Brad Johnson: Could go on and on here, but I won’t

4:04
Keeper Q: I am trying to decide between keeping Wilson Ramos and Michael Conforto in an NL-only, OBP league (2 Cs, 4 OFs). On the one hand, Ramos projects as one of the top guys at the weakest position; on the other, Conforto projects for better overall stats than Ramos, but at a deep position. Generally, do you prioritize position scarcity (Ramos) or overall production (Conforto) in choosing keepers?

4:05
Brad Johnson: You’re overthinking it. It’s Conforto and you just deal with the C pain. Conforto has to be somewhere in the vicinity of a top 30 keeper in that format (assuming no costs). Definitely prioritize production.

4:05
Need More Bangers: (oops. sorry.)

hi brad!**

insane to trade degom for vlad in a shallow roto keeper? keep forever with no costs/rounds for keepers. 10 teams, 6 kept per team, 290 players rostered in league. Thanks!

4:05
Brad Johnson: No, not insane.

4:06
Brad Johnson: Also not a must-do move in a shallow format.

4:06
Kyle: Final keeper in a 12 tm keep 10 forever TB+OPS and QS+HD added. Gallo, Scooter, Moncada, Pham, Justin Upton, Dahl, Mondesi, Puig, Greinke, Hader.

4:07
Brad Johnson: Tough choice between Gallo, Mondesi, and Pham for me. I’d lean Mondesi for the go big or go home first round value potential

4:07
Brad Johnson: Though Gallo and Pham will probably both outperform him.

4:07
Brad Johnson: Sounds like you must have 9 monster keepers

4:07
Chatty McChatface: Keep Lindor at 2nd round or Eloy for 28th round?

4:08
Brad Johnson: I’ll bank Lindor in most scenarios I can imagine

4:08
Ken Giles Right Hook: 12 team H2H league K/BB instead of wins. Trying a new strategy and “trimming the fat” off my rotation without sacrificing too much in K’s. Looking to replace guys like Tanner Roark with a RP with good ratios who also will qualify as a SP. Any suggestions on guys who could be available?

4:09
Brad Johnson: I’ll note that this is a great approach. I do not have many specific recommendations at this time – mostly because the league is positively flooded with guys who fit this description. Focusing on individuals right now seems unnecessary.

4:09
Brad Johnson: The important part is, yes, you’ve hit upon the correct approach.

4:09
Kevin: Hi.  Between Franmil Reyes and Willie Calhoun, who do you think has more upside this year/in the future?

4:10
Brad Johnson: I might be in the minority, but I really don’t think Franmil is a starting OFer for most teams. He’ll find a regular job, but he may need to shuffle around a lot first. Defense is bad and the bat isn’t enough to carry him.

4:11
Brad Johnson: That said, Calhoun’s 2018 was so disappointing. I’ll still take his mix of contact and power, but I’m worried.

4:11
Xavier: Dustin Fowler seems to have slid down the A’s OF depth chart. Any hope that he gets regular ABs?

4:11
Brad Johnson: Sure. As of today, he just needs an injury or two to open the door. I do think the A’s will add at least one veteran OFer if not a pair.

4:11
Brad Johnson: Presently, unless I’m forgetting someone, it’s Piscotty, Laureano, Martini, and Canha

4:11
Kyle: Khris Davis or Trea Turner in a 12 tm keep 10 forever with TB+OPS added?

4:12
Brad Johnson: Trea Turner

4:12
Brad Johnson: Davis has been incredibly consistent but that’ll magically vanish one year

4:12
Brad Johnson: And I bet it’s in the next 3

4:13
Brad Johnson: Turner hasn’t even figured out how to make consistently good contact, and he’s still a consensus 1st rounder in non-TB+OPS

4:13
Brad Johnson: If he takes that step forward, he’s a top 3 pick in every format.

4:13
108-54 with a 24 Man Roster: Dynasty points league: name three SP you would target if if you are trading Eugenio Suarez.

4:14
Brad Johnson: Any ace not named Chris Sale?

4:14
Brad Johnson: The older aces should be available because they’re… older. The younger aces should be available because pitchers break constantly

4:15
Brad Johnson: When trading a hitter for a pitcher in dynasty, the pitcher should be somewhere between 20 and 40% better than the hitter.

4:15
Brad Johnson: In general, there are specific scenarios where that’s not true. And it breaks down at the extremes (i.e. Sale or scrubs)

4:15
rpo: In Ottoneu points, is $50 fair value (generally) to keep Machado?

4:15
Brad Johnson: You don’t HAVE to keep him at this price if you have better values available

4:16
Brad Johnson: And I don’t mean a bunch of Brandon Nimmos for $5.

4:16
Brad Johnson: Like if you’re between Machado or Lindor for $50, you keep Lindor. But if you’re between Machado and $50 to draft guys, keep Machado.

4:17
Stinky Cheddar: I’ve been offered Luzardo for my Musgrove… I should be a playoff team this year. Do I take that chance? I should have enough pitching to get by without Musgrove buttttt – he also looks primed for a breakout.

4:17
Brad Johnson: I too like Musgrove. Let me look into this a little more.

4:18
Brad Johnson: So because they’re pitchers, I’m not especially worried about Musgrove being 5 years older

4:18
Brad Johnson: I’d project roughly the same number of innings from both over the next 5+ years

4:18
Brad Johnson: And I don’t care about 2025 as a rule

4:19
Brad Johnson: This is a really tough spot. I think it’s a taut offer, meaning you can take it or leave it and not feel bad.

4:20
Brad Johnson: I like to think about these from the perspective of asset diversification

4:20
Brad Johnson: Musgrove is solid and could improve to be a better-than-Glob sub-ace

4:20
Brad Johnson: Luzardo could be anything from a reliever to an ace

4:21
Brad Johnson: If you have other Musgroves or can access them, take Luzardo. And vice versa. If you already have Forrest Whitley but fringy MLB pitching, maybe pass on Luzardo.

4:21
Geroge: Why do I value the players on my roster more highly than I would if they were on someone else’s roster? And how can I fix myself?

4:22
Brad Johnson: This is a very common psychological/behavioral phenomenon called the endowment effect

4:22
Brad Johnson: Studies find that if you give something to somebody, they want more in exchange for it than if somebody else has it.

4:23
Brad Johnson: The best you can do is be aware of it. Generally, players end up on your roster because you already like them more than others.

4:23
Masked Hinchman : Any positions you plan to prioritize/reach a little in drafts this year to ensure getting the last guy or two in a tier? 1B, SP and/or Closer?

4:24
Brad Johnson: In a snake, I’ll put more effort into early SP. Closers tend to float my way more often in snakes too.

4:24
Brad Johnson: I almost exclusively play auctions though…

4:24
Brad Johnson: And in those, I tend to avoid paying for pitchers unless they’re going cheaply

4:24
Ryan: Re: Endowment effect, it doesn’t work for every trade, but try thinking through whether you would do the trade in reverse.

4:25
Geroge: Fangraphs points – you prefer $30 Seager or $8 Dejong as your everyday SS?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Gimme Seager

4:25
Brad Johnson: That’s the one format that really rewards his style of hitting

4:25
Jerry B: Do you drink while you draft?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Usually

4:25
William: Do you like Puig in Cincinnati this season?  Also on Dave Dahl, I’ve seen some very aggressive projections for him, what are your thoughts?  Thanks.

4:26
Brad Johnson: Dahl is one of those weird guys for me

4:26
Brad Johnson: Every so often, a player I’ve hyped for a long time suddenly turns way too widely liked

4:26
Brad Johnson: He’s just a fringy third outfielder with some Coors Field help

4:27
Brad Johnson: At least at this stage of his development.

4:27
Brad Johnson: I do think Cincy will help Puig

4:27
Longo: Grandal or Contreras the better producing catcher for traditional redraft? And/or OBP leagues?

4:27
Brad Johnson: I’ll toss a bet on Grandal, as I’ve done for half a decade.

4:28
anon: re: lindor vs. eloy, if shallow league might take eloy given depth of SS (even with lindor as top option at the position)

4:28
Brad Johnson: Actually, I have the very opposite reaction. In shallow formats, you lock down elite talent and ALWAYS trade prospects. Even Vladito.

4:29
Brad Johnson: The ready availability of high quality talent means you don’t need long term assets. At all.

4:29
Brad Johnson: Shallow leagues are purely a function of outmanaging the competition plus the usual smattering of luck.

4:29
Brad Johnson: Roster management only matters in the current year. You can always solve your way out of a shortfall of young studs.

4:30
Stinky Cheddar: all things being equal, last keeper, Segura or Taillon

4:30
Brad Johnson: Taillon for me.

4:30
Jack: Better late round flier in a points league- barretto or d. Fowler

4:30
Brad Johnson: Barreto

4:31
Brad Johnson: He has a decent chance and sneaking ahead of Fowler for OF reps, and he also can back fill the INF as needed.

4:31
Nick: What could a $54 Scherzer fetch in an Ottoneu fgpoints?

4:31
Brad Johnson: That’s very league dependent.

4:31
Brad Johnson: In some leagues, everybody will be afraid of the expensive asset and offer like one decent $3 prospect (i.e. Carter Kieboom)

4:31
Brad Johnson: In others, you could pluck a king’s ransom

4:32
Brad Johnson: fwiw, I would hold Scherzer if you can’t get the ransom.

4:32
Quisenberry : Who finishes with the most saves- Hicks, Domguez, Minter?

4:32
Brad Johnson: Tricksy…I’ll guess Minter for now. My answer will likely change throughout the year.

4:32
Biggy: Nola and Severino a legit 1-2 ace combo?  Any hope to match up with Sale/scherZer?

4:33
Brad Johnson: In a given week, sure? But the later pair is definitely a better bet.

4:33
Brad Johnson: They’re both good combos, but you should take it a step farther if we’re talking H2H

4:33
Brad Johnson: I go whole hog on aces and it usually works – assuming the league isn’t deep

4:34
Brad Johnson: H2H and deep usually don’t mix for some reason

4:34
Brick: 12 team league with OBP: Trade a $6 Albies for a $65 Betts? Cost goes up by $5 each year. $260 budget

4:34
Brad Johnson: I dunno. I’m having trouble believing $65 Betts is a keep.

4:35
Brad Johnson: I’ve been seeing Mike Trout go for $50-55 for years in my $310 budget, salary +$7 leagues

4:35
Brad Johnson: That said, I see no reason to cling to a $6 Albies if you want to lock in the legit monster

4:36
Brad Johnson: I’m not Sporer, Albies is just a middling 2B to me. Has a lot of Rougie Odor qualities, although there’s a lot more hope for growth.

4:37
Dan: Zigged when a dynasty startup zagged, got a pile of SP2/3s and no ace.  Reasonable strategy to go with depth this year with people hitting SP hard in Rds. 2-5, draft pitching heavy in mid-rounds?  

Greinke/Tanaka/C. Martinez/Ray/Archer/Quintana/Freeland/J. Gray—this can win now in a H2H, right?  Thanks

4:37
Brad Johnson: Yes, but every week is going to be a battle. And I hope you have some top relievers to salvage ratios.

4:37
Dan: Keep two in OBP H2H:  Abreu, Ozuna, E. Suarez

4:38
Brad Johnson: Suarez and Ozuna

4:38
Ottovino: Can I keep it up? I’m 33 and my Aug/Sept did not impress …

4:38
Brad Johnson: Health has been a problem in recent years. And it’s telling he’s the reliever still on the market.

4:38
Brad Johnson: I still like Ottavino as few pitchers are as filthy when he’s on

4:39
Brad Johnson: I’m not going out of my way to pay for him unless a team signs him to close

4:39
Dan: Favorite Name in the Majors right now, and all-time

4:39
Brad Johnson: hmm, I know there are names I love in the league right now, but they aren’t springing to mind

4:40
Brad Johnson: All time, I still regularly think about Esteban Yan and Yhency Brazoban

4:40
WILLLLLLLSON: Are we giving up on Contreras this year or is now the time to buy expecting a bounceback? He was the #2 catcher off the board last year and was replaceable and catcher is a semi replaceable position so better to just not draft it high and hopef or the best?

4:40
Brad Johnson: Not giving up. Buy low. Hope for life.

4:41
Brad Johnson: I generally try to find whatever catcher used to be good and sucked the previous year

4:41
Brad Johnson: It’s a winning strategy

4:41
Brad Johnson: I think. I seem to win with it.

4:41
Larry: When you say early SP, do you mean the elite 4 or 5 pitchers?

4:41
Brad Johnson: Yes

4:41
Brad Johnson: Rounds 2-4

4:42
Brad Johnson: Still can’t stomach a round 1 pick unless I’m picking like 11 in a 12 team draft

4:42
Brad Johnson: And I don’t have any SP in my top 15 this year

4:42
Dfan: Is Roberts crazy enough to platoon Muncy like he did much of the WS even though his splits are fairly equal?

4:42
Brad Johnson: Sigh. Yes, I think so.

4:42
Brad Johnson: I’m hoping it doesn’t happen because it’s STOOOPID

4:43
Matt : After Whitley, any draftable pitchers who won’t start the season in the majors?

4:43
Brad Johnson: Luzardo

4:43
Brad Johnson: Honeywell? Kinda depends on league depth

4:43
Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t draft ANY minor leaguers in 10 team

4:43
Brad Johnson: In 12 team, maybe just Whitley and Luzardo

4:43
Brad Johnson: Deeper and the field opens up

4:43
Matt : SO I know it’s the offseason, but is there any consideration given to you and Justin spreading out your chat days?

4:44
Brad Johnson: Talk to Justin, I had first dibs on Tuesday 🙂

4:44
Larry Hutz: In Ottoneu would you be keeping a $5 Tyler O’Neill and $3 Luis Urias if you already roster similarly priced Peter Alonso, Tatis, Senzel, Wander Franco, and Kyle Tucker?

4:44
Brad Johnson: Might keep Urias. O’Neill is out for me.

4:44
Dan: What’s the biggest mistake you made in fantasy last year?

4:45
Brad Johnson: Did you miss my article about my worst trades? I dealt Betts for Altuve in dynasty.

4:45
Kat: Traded albies for walker buehler. I say that as a albies fan (12 team)

4:45
Brad Johnson: Great swap. Buehler is a much better talent at this time.

4:46
Mike: Ottoneu 5×5 league – pitching needs help, 13$ Robles, 9$ Tatis Jr, 10$ Senzel . What type of return should I be looking for ?  SP and RP are both needs

4:46
Brad Johnson: Have you tried letting your rivals shape the talks? Pop them on the block, say you need pitching, and see who bites.

4:47
Brad Johnson: In general, I avoid committing resources to RP. They can be found cheaply if you’re diligent about scouring the wire.

4:47
Dan: What should we NOT be paying attention to before opening day?  What are the red herrings out there in the off-season that get players mis-valued?

4:47
Brad Johnson: Players being blocked is the #1

4:48
Brad Johnson: If they’re going to post fantasy relevant numbers, chances are they’ll be starting before long

4:48
Brad Johnson: Some Vladito-scenarios notwithstanding

4:48
Ken Giles Right Hook: The most fun mystery team that Manny Machado could sign with?

4:49
Brad Johnson: Hmm… the Twins would be a great one. Push Polanco to 2B and either cut Schoop or swallow the cost. (arb salaries are mostly non-guaranteed until the start of the season)

4:49
Jake: Where do you rank or put Ross Stripling? Big breakout in 2018 but Dodgers rotation circus, sustainability, and possibly innings pitched issues. I have him as a $3 keeper in a keep 7

4:50
Brad Johnson: I wrote about Stripling not too long ago. I kind of doubt he’s a top 7 keeper for you though.

4:50
Kyle: RE my question earlier regarding the final keeper. Yes, I do have 9 stud keepers and a lot of power. I just have this feeling on Dahl that might make me choose him Gallo and Mondesi. His projections are crazy

4:51
Brad Johnson: everyone seems to have feelings about Dahl. I just don’t see any evidence.

4:51
Kyle: Should I trade Kershaw for Buhler?

4:51
Brad Johnson: How deep is the league? In 20 team dynasty, sure.

4:51
Brad Johnson: In 12-team mixed, keep 5, nah

4:51
Kyle: 12 tm H2H keep forever btw]

4:51
Brad Johnson: you anticipated me

4:52
Brad Johnson: That’s a bold trade, one I think you can make for forever reasons

4:52
Dynasty Warrio: Projections on fangraphs aren’t yet giving Garrett Hampson credit for a likely full time roll. Can I count on him for solid ratios and decent counting stats this year?

4:52
Brad Johnson: I’m not projecting a full time role either

4:52
Brad Johnson: I like Hampson in a general sense. The issue is the Rockies legitimately don’t let their prospects play.

4:53
Brad Johnson: They have Murphy, Desmond, and McMahon in the initial mix

4:53
Brad Johnson: Rodgers could enter the picture later in the season (although it’s unlikely)

4:54
Brad Johnson: I’d project in the area of 300 PA

4:54
Larry Hutz: If you needed IF help, would you move $9 Dahl for $7 Peraza in 5×5 Ottoneu?

4:55
Brad Johnson: You can do a lot better

4:55
Brad Johnson: I mean, I think that’s a reasonable swap

4:55
Brad Johnson: But based on the wider impression of Dahl, you should be able to target a couple tiers higher

4:55
Brad Johnson: Unless you’re specifically after SB with modest power

4:55
Larry Hutz: If Hampson isn’t a full time player do you see Ryan McMahon getting set loose finally? Worth keeping around for $5 in 5×5 Ottoneu?

4:56
Brad Johnson: I kinda think they’ll get jammed together is the least optimal way possible

4:56
Dan: Where do you like having your trade deadline?  How does it differ in roto vs. H2H, keeper vs. redraft?

4:56
Brad Johnson: In H2H, I like trades to end with the regular season. Mid-September for roto. Never for keepers.

4:57
Brad Johnson: So I lean towards very late deadlines

4:57
Turgid: Who do you like better as a keeper, $1 Aaron Hicks or $8 Matt Olson? Think it’s Hicks easily, but on the other hand 1B is surprisingly thin

4:57
Brad Johnson: EZ Hicks for me too, although Olson isn’t drawing dead

4:57
Brad Johnson: Maybe 20% he’s the better value

4:57
TJ: $34 blackmon for 1 year or $11 castellanos for 3…standard 5×5 with 15 keepers?

4:57
Brad Johnson: I’ll take Blackmon

4:57
Kevin: Top 5 players in a dynasty minors first year player draft?

4:58
Brad Johnson: Vlad, Robles (if he counts), Eloy, Royce Lewis, and Wander Franco (if it’s a deep-ish league)

4:59
Brad Johnson: Tatis, Tucker, and Bichette also in the mix for me.

4:59
Brad Johnson: Probably missing a name or two

5:00
Ben Jammin: Outside of Vladito, in a 10-man  – keep 5 forever league, are there any other players currently in the minors that would be worth keeping preseason?

5:00
Brad Johnson: No

5:00
Ken Giles Right Hook: I think Kevin means among prospects who were just drafted or signed. Entering their first year of pro play

5:00
Brad Johnson: Oh, in that case, I do not have that information ready to hand

5:00
Brad Johnson: I have them lumped in with all prospects

5:00
Ben Jammin: No Robles or Eloy?

5:01
Brad Johnson: Robles isn’t a top 50 player.

5:01
Brad Johnson: Right now.

5:01
Brad Johnson: And that’s a shallow league so I don’t care about 2021 let alone farther in the future.

5:01
Brad Johnson: So easy to replace missed Eloys

5:02
Dfan: i need a utility infielder…12 team dynasty HTH. Do you see Asdrubal playing full time with Phil or is Wendle or Marte a better bet?

5:02
Brad Johnson: Adrubal is a free agent

5:02
Brad Johnson: Marte is the best bet of those you mentioned. He’s quite solid

5:02
King Donko of Punchstania: Royce Lewis or Wander Franco in an OBP dynasty league?

5:02
Brad Johnson: How deep. The shallower the league, the better the relatively advanced Lewis

5:03
Brad Johnson: 20 team+ take Wander

5:03
Mmm Mmm Good: In a vacuum, who do you like best in Ottoneu 4×4: $5 E. Rosario, $12 Olson, $15 Devers

5:03
Brad Johnson: EZ Rosario

5:03
Dan: Need to fill out a keeper roster. Aguilar, Carpenter, Castellanos, Dahl and D. Rodriguez all good to go? Especially concerned about the last two.

5:03
Brad Johnson: What’s the constraint? Am I picking one? All 5?

5:03
Fantasy God: Who would u trade Sale for multiple pieces (offense + SP replacement) in a 16 team dynasty league or keep the stud ace?

5:03
Brad Johnson: Usually keep. Depends on the return though

5:04
Floyd: NL league 5×5 – keep Tatis $7 for 2 years or Albies $1 for 1 year?  will contend with either – thanks

5:04
Brad Johnson: I’m pessimistic about Tatis doing anything at all in 2019, and I suspect he could be a guy who’s slow to adjust due to his high whiff rate.

5:05
Brad Johnson: 16.5% SwStr in Double-A

5:05
Brad Johnson: About time to start wrapping up

5:05
Bob: You targeting Yusei Kikuchi this year?

5:05
Brad Johnson: Yes, although I’m not going nuts with it

5:06
Brad Johnson: Usually, imported players are a bad value a year after a similar guy was good

5:06
Brad Johnson: and vice versa

5:06
Brad Johnson: So I think Mikolas could ruin Kikuchi’s value. But I’m not seeing that happen yet.

5:06
Brad Johnson: Perhaps because the Ms won’t get him wins and plan to really ratchet down his IP

5:06
Dan: Pick four! Thanks…

5:06
Brad Johnson: Q was: Need to fill out a keeper roster. Aguilar, Carpenter, Castellanos, Dahl and D. Rodriguez all good to go? Especially concerned about the last two.

5:07
Brad Johnson: I’d dump DRod

5:07
Brad Johnson: EZ

5:07
Tanaka: Any chance I correct my HR woes while playing at NYY’s miniature ballpark?

5:07
Brad Johnson: Not really

5:07
Not Sporer: I tried the “get a C who sucked the previous year” route and wound up with Lucroy last year. Oops. This year I’ve got Jansen as a keeper and several owners are trying to get him from me. Might be able to pry Senzel if I gave up Jansen and a closer like Leclerc or Buttrey. Long-term, relatively deep keeper league. I’m playing for 2020 (I have Vladito, Tatis, Wander).

5:08
Brad Johnson: Big difference between prying with Leclerc (top 10 closer) and Buttrey (not definitely a closer)

5:08
Mike Tank: On a scale from 1 to trading all your shares, how concerned are you about Bregman’s elbow surgery?

5:08
Brad Johnson: 0

5:08
Brad Johnson: it was just loose bodies

5:09
Brad Johnson: routine as possible

5:09
Twinmh: Re: favorite name.  Always thought Grant Balfour was the most ironic name for a pitcher.

5:09
Brad Johnson: Josh Outman was a good ironic one too

5:09
Brad Johnson: Outman had a career 1.43 WHIP

5:10
Smith > Vogelbach?: I’m struggling to find comps for Scherzer with his age/durability/power stuff other than Justin Verlander.  Think Scherzer’s next 600 innings will go as smoothly as Verlander’s last 600?

5:10
Brad Johnson: That’s never a good bet

5:10
Brad Johnson: Just take it year to year

5:10
Brad Johnson: I know that’s hard in dynasty

5:10
Brad Johnson: But if you’re talking redraft, then we don’t have to worry

5:10
Javier Baez: I’m going to regress. BABIP boost in 18 can’t make up for my inability to take a BB.

5:10
Brad Johnson: Yes. You even regressed midway through last year

5:11
Adam: 12 team keep 3.  Last keeper obp not avg. mondesi or buehler (both 19th rd). Other two are trout and soto.  And when will you have your article on perceived value?  I spent an hour meeting for the first time a guy i have played 15 years with and our main thread was perceived value.

5:11
Brad Johnson: Perceived value is a sticky subject. The FanGraphs crowd tends to give me crap for philosophizing without maths

5:12
Brad Johnson: So I might save that one for the patrons.

5:12
John E: How are you viewing Ohtani in dynasty going in to this year?

5:12
Brad Johnson: Mostly as a very good hitter only

5:12
Brad Johnson: If he hits like he did in 2018, I have some doubts he’ll be allowed to pitch very often

5:13
Timothy: $53 Scherzer or $15 Soto Ottoneu fgpts?

5:13
Brad Johnson: Soto…

5:13
Brad Johnson: And feeling like I walked into one of those cartoon holes they cover with leaves

5:13
Not Sporer: That’s why I dealt my $4 McMahon for his $8 Luke Weaver. Hoping I traded a platoon (at best) bat for a good arm in a humidor. We’ll see.

5:13
Brad Johnson: I like that bet

5:14
Lefty: I’m not saying anyone is going to break out like Soto just did. But if someone did this year, who’s your best bet?

5:14
Brad Johnson: We’re talking a minor leaguer? Well… Vladito.

5:14
Brad Johnson: 🙂

5:14
Brad Johnson: Robles another solid bet. Eloy. The guys you already hear about all the time.

5:15
Brad Johnson: Soto was weird in that he was a top 5 prospect whose health status incorrectly affected his ranking

5:15
Arquimedez Pozo: Best name (former red sox outfielder in 90s)

5:15
PULLEY: 16 team keep forever up to 9.  Who do you prefer Buehler or Bellinger? And how much do you lean 1 way or the other?

5:15
Brad Johnson: Bellinger but I have to wonder if you’re keeping somebody you shouldn’t

5:15
Brad Johnson: Those are both EZ top 40 assets

5:16
Brad Johnson: or at least top 50

5:16
Brad Johnson: Bellinger could be 20-25 range

5:16
grumpf: how do you select ottoneu arb targets?

5:16
Brad Johnson: Awesome but very untimely question

5:16
Brad Johnson: Ask me again next October and I’ll write you a novel.

5:17
Fantasy GOD: Would u trade Sale for multiple pieces (let’s say offense + SP replacement) in a 16 team dynasty league or keep the stud ace?

5:17
Brad Johnson: (psst, I answer this. Not usually but maybe)

5:18
Keeper League: Traded $1 buehler for $11 d murphy, $3 gennett, $1 dahl..all players kept for 2 more years…alright return?

5:18
Brad Johnson: That’s a classic FV for PV swap

5:18
Brad Johnson: Looks fine to me as long as that’s your goal

5:18
Brad Johnson: And on that note, I bid you all adieu.

We hoped you liked reading Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/15/2019 by Brad Johnson!

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