Justin Mason Baseball Chat- January, 15th 2019

9:00	Justin Mason: Going to start shortly. Will be a shorter chat today, about 30-45 minutes. Please don’t repeat questions.

9:01	Justin Mason: If I don’t get to your question, you can always hit me up on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752 or on twitter @justin

9:02	Justin Mason: @justinmasonfwfb

9:03	Justin Mason: Lots of cool stuff going on for me right now as well. New Sleeper and the bust should go up today, a bunch of pods at Friends with fantasy benefits and the new TGFBI pod dropped today in which you can hear how to win your way into the 2020 TGFBI

9:03	Faber: Why wouldn’t the Indians just trade Kluber for Senzel straight up?

9:03	Justin Mason: Because elite starting pitching is more expensive than that.

9:03	Floppy: Muncy for profar in dynasty?

9:03	Justin Mason: Prefer profar

9:03	Floppy: Shelby Miller and Albies for Glasnow and Jahmai Jones in dynasty?

9:04	Justin Mason: no

9:04	Wade: Afternoon! Considering rostering both catchers from same team in 1 catcher OBP league. McCann/Flowers or Suzuki/Gomes? Also, since McCann is LHB will he get more AB that Suzuki did for ATL in 2018?

9:04	Justin Mason: I’ll take the Washington duo but it is close. I don’t think McCann gets more ABs

9:05	Rays Believer: RP Collin Poche was dominant in the minors last year, but I don’t see him mentioned on any Rays top 10 (or 20 or 30) lists? What gives? Is it because he’s older than his peers? Is his stuff not legit? My league is 18 teams deep with 3 starting RP slots

9:05	Justin Mason: To be honest, I don’t know enough about him to answer this well.

9:05	Austin: Is Trea Turner truly worth a top 5-10 pick?

9:05	Justin Mason: Definitely.

9:05	tacopocket: can preller get away with this? trying to trade for Kluber but taking their top SIX prospects off the table?!? their system can’t be that deep, can it??

9:06	Justin Mason: It is extremely deep. The best in the game. However, I can’t imagine Cleveland does that without one of those guys.

9:07	Chip: Who are you bumping up in a 6×6 league with OBP/SLG instead of avg.? In the past, it’s been guys like Votto and Gallo. Who else should I bump up my rankings?

9:08	Justin Mason: Soto, Hoskins, Pederson, Bellinger, Judge, Story, Seager, Donaldson, Castellanos all get bumps

9:08	Bilbo Baggins: Prefer Baez or Kris Bryant this year?

9:09	Justin Mason: Bryant if he looks healthy in spring

9:09	chet: hold daniel norris in a dynasty league?

9:09	Justin Mason: Not unless it is a really deep league

9:09	Cory: Hey, my hitting was awful last year and I have Donaldson, Ozuna and Kluber and have to drop one this year and drop another next year. Thoughts? Did I mention my hitting was terrible?

9:10	Justin Mason: Ugh… I guess if your hitting was bad, I drop Kluber

9:10	Austin: Dynasty league, Soto or Andujar? OF is easier to get guys as well.

9:10	Justin Mason: Soto and not close

9:10	My bench>your starters: I got a trade proposal of my Vlad Jr and Carter Kieboom for Manny Machado and Gohara. It’s a points dynasty league that has an emphasis on walks and low strikeouts. Should I do it? Or do value them similarly enough so I wouldn’t have to add to the deal?

9:11	Justin Mason: With the hype on Vlad right now, you shouldn’t have to add. If anything, you should ask for more in a dynasty league.

9:11	Vottomatic: How do you handle relievers in ON? Keep them even with raises for stability, or toss back and hope to find deals in the auction?

9:11	Justin Mason: in ON?

9:11	chet: is corbin burnes an impact…starter? this year? Or more real life value in the bullpen in 2019?

9:12	Justin Mason: If he gets a real rotation spot, he could be a impact starter. I just don’t buy that he is given that role in 2019

9:12	AJ: Draft Urias or Jansen in a dynasty league?

9:12	Justin Mason: Which Urias? If it is Luis, then him. Julio, I will take Jansen.

9:12	Wade: Are you in or out on a Chris Archer bounceback with Pirates?

9:13	Justin Mason: Bounceback to what? I think he will be a bit better, but I don’t think he is an ace

9:13	AJ: Does Andujar play any 1B this season?

9:13	Justin Mason: If he stays with the Yankees he will.

9:13	stonecold: Yelich probably looking at some regression to that HR/FB rate. How far do you think he goes?

9:13	Justin Mason: probably to 27-30 homers.

9:14	Jeremy: Do you have any post-hype breakout candidates? Victor Robles is a guy I’ll be watching in the spring.

9:14	Justin Mason: Robles is going inside the top 100. Don’t think he is post hype, but I still love him this year. Kyle Tucker is a guy I am targeting as well as Margot

9:14	Matt W: Ugh wish teams wouldn’t block premium prospects with middling veterans.

9:14	Justin Mason: It is the worst.

9:15

Dominik: Is there a good resource (book or website) on general fantasy strategy? I feel I can evaluate baseball players pretty well but i have some trouble on roster construction and properly balancing between pitching, hitting and different categories so im always good in some categories and bad in others. For example I never know in which rounds to draft relievers.

9:15	Justin Mason: I have a draft guide coming out in the next week that has a ton of strategy pieces in it! Also, Larry Schecter wrote a great book called Winning Fantasy Baseball that is a must read.

9:16	My bench>your starters: I’m in a points league with an 8 start limit. Who are some other guys in addition to Yarbrough who can get multiple innings in relief to rack up points?

9:17	Justin Mason: Just look at teams that may be employing the opener like Tampa, Milwaukee and Oakland. Hard to come up with names, but those are teams that will have guys like Yarbourgh that will pop up out of nowhere.

9:17	Bro Pat: Which 5 to keep in a 10 team H2H 5X5 keep forever league, between the following: Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell

9:17	Justin Mason: All but Freeman

9:17	chet: Is Puig alot more valuable in cincy between the park and locked in ABs, or am i overthinking it? 30/20 seems achievable, and that’s like top ~35 overall

9:18	Justin Mason: I think if he stays healthy, he can be a monster in Cincy, but that is a big if.

9:18	Matt W: What is your outlook on Kyle Tucker and Willie Calhoun this year?

9:19	Justin Mason: Love both if they get playing time. I think Tucker will for sure at some point, but Calhoun is in a bad spot with his defense. That being said, love both this year considering where they are going.

9:19	BJ: Can Junis be a top 30 SP? If he limits the long ball.

9:19	Justin Mason: I don’t think so.

9:19	stonecold: is Jose Martinez worth a hold in a dyansty league that does FG pts?

9:19	Justin Mason: Not unless he gets traded.

9:19	Jeff: Marcus Stroman bounces back, even breaks out, big in 2019. Yay or nay?

9:19	Justin Mason: not unless he gets traded away from that turf and defense behind him.

9:20	Vottomatic: Ottoneu, sorry.

9:20	Justin Mason: I don’t really play Ottoneu.

9:20	here goes nothing: Pitchers in the Mike Clevinger mold who won’t compete for a Cy but could give 150 quality IP for bargain-bin auction prices…come at me

9:21	Justin Mason: Pivetta, Heaney, Alex Reyes, Weaver, Lugo, James, Woodruff, Nelson, Desclafani are all guys I like

9:21	Jeff: Thoughts on the future of Daniel Norris, if any?

9:22	Justin Mason: I still have hope, but he has a ton of work to do and has to stay healthy. At least the Tigers will suck enough that they have no reason to move him to the pen yet.

9:22	BJ: With TB signing Garcia, will that have an impact on Meadows ABs?

9:22	Justin Mason: Maybe to start the season, but talent will win out.

9:23	Darragh: Melvin Upton is changing his name back to BJ Upton. How do you think that affects his fantasy value?

9:23	Justin Mason: He sucks more?

9:23	Matt W: Does Jeff McNeil get enough starts to be mixed league worthy? Or is he waiver fodder until an injury opens up playing time?

9:23	Justin Mason: I think he is a waiver guy for now unfortunately.

9:23	BJ: Better long term fantasy player, Devers or Andujar?

9:23	Justin Mason: Devers

9:23	BradyH: I’m surprised Odor isn’t getting more attention in a thin 2B field. In 2018 lowered SwSt% to league average, walked at league average rate, only 18 HR but steamer projects for 28… Do you think the plate skill gains will stick?

9:24	Justin Mason: I love Odor. I am a totally believer in his skills, but we have seen him abandon his approach before.

9:24	Alex: How legit is Kyle Wright? What should we expect from him fantasy wise? Ace or more of a 4-5 sp?

9:24	Justin Mason: I think he is a legit #2

9:24	Jeremy: Why do people like Archer and Stroman so much? They seem overdrafted every year.

9:24	Justin Mason: We remember the good times…

9:24	Jeff: True story so tell the Cubs to hurry up and trade for Stroman.

9:24	Justin Mason: Epstein stopped taking my calls.

9:25	Wade: Dylan Bundy expectations with the Astros philosophy moving to Baltimore? A dose of sabermetrics has to help, no?

9:25	Justin Mason: It can’t hurt, I hope

9:25	Jeff: Expectations for AJ Puk? He was scary good in 2017

9:25	Justin Mason: I think he is going to be really good once he is healthy. Buy low if you can.

9:25	Mike: 400$ 5×5 – Vlad Jr 20$ for Tatis Jr 9$ Mooose 8$ Choo 4$?

9:26	Justin Mason: Got to tell me how many you can keep and size of the league. All seem like good prices

9:26	Alex: With Corey Seager coming back from injury, should we expect him to take some time…half season or so, to get back to his usual self?

9:27	Justin Mason: In think he should be ok since he has spring trainman, but I am worried about his health period plus SS is just so deep now and he doesn’t steal any bases. I am fading Seager this year.

9:27	Jim: How quickly is Whitley pitching for the Astros this season?

9:27	Justin Mason: May 1st?

9:27	Charles A: Hey Justin – new to the auction calculator. When adding keepers, should I only add my own or add every team’s keepers? Thanks

9:27	Justin Mason: Hmmm… I would assume that you should add all keepers.

9:28	Jim: What Eflin will we see this year? The first half stud or the second half hit and miss?

9:28	Justin Mason: I think we will see stretch of both.

9:28	Jeremy: What is your favorite thing about fantasy baseball and what is your least favorite thing?

9:29	Justin Mason: I love the strategy of the game. There are so many ways to approach an auction or draft. Nothing is as satisfying as outsmarting your opponents. My least favorite thing is keeping up with daily lineup changes.

9:30	My bench>your starters: A trade offer in my dynasty of Lorenzo Cain and Miguel Cabrera for Keon broxton (K’s kill value in this pts system) was vetoed by the commish. They added Jorge bonifacio to broxton and it was accepted again. That’s a pretty awful deal right?

9:30	Justin Mason: Yeah, that is messed up

9:30	Dave: (1yr) yelich at $14 for (2 yr)scott schebler, (1yr)alex wood, arodys Vizcaino plus minor league pick. Which side would you pick? NL only roto dynasty

9:30	Justin Mason: yelich

9:30	JH: How would you handle a guy like Daniel Robertson (showed some talent, may have to scrape for playing time) in a very deep (roster 840 at the MLB level) keep-forever league with a handful of bench spots. Stash or trade?

9:31	Justin Mason: I think I would trade. If the Rays believed in him, why would they keep adding pieces to block him for more time?

9:31	DresTheAce: Thinking about drafting all SPs and then picking up closers as they become available. Decent strategy? [8 pitching slots, no bench, no required SP/RP split, 5×5 w/QS instead of W]

9:31	Justin Mason: It is a risky strategy. You won’t be the only one going after those relievers.

9:32	chet: am i crazy to think tyler white is a top 10 1b in 2019 (top 8 maybe?). houston hasn’t signed anyone, consistent ABs in that lineup look really nice on paper

9:32	Justin Mason: First base is bad, so it could happen. Feels unlikely that he gets full run at the position though.

9:32	Bro Pat: Follow-up. Can you explain why throwing Freeman back when 1b is so shallow is a good idea?

9:33	Justin Mason: I think you are right, but I love all those pitchers too. Got to pick your poison

9:33	Chaco Chicken: Will the Rays make Avisail a useful full season fantasy player?

9:33	Justin Mason: I don’t think so.

9:33	Michelle: Help me choose bargain bin keepers. 14-team mixed 5×5 keeper roto Note: Can keep the following year for additional 5 dollars. Choose three: Semien @5, Eovaldi @1, Kirby Yates @1, Forrest Whitley @2, Andrew Heaney @1

9:34	Justin Mason: How many can you keep? I like all of them at their prices except maybe Semien.

9:34	aka22: Looking at my 10 team, $260 budget, NL Only keeper options I have a lot of Ps I’m deciding between. $4 Stripling, $4 Hader, $4 Yates, $7 Alex Wood, $14 Taillon. I can keep 3 of them only. Have favorites?

9:34	Justin Mason: Stripling, Yates, and Taillon

9:35	DresTheAce: Thinking about shaking things up in my longtime, fairly standard league with a lot of grumblers. Which rule change has the best chance of being supported? Going up to 2 catchers; including HLDs; adding keepers

9:35	Justin Mason: adding keepers

9:35	Jim: Does Kiner-Fafela have any value? Seems like an intriguing C option.

9:35	Justin Mason: Sure. A catcher eligible player that plays other positions should have some value as a high end C2.

9:35	DresTheAce: Who’s this year’s Adalberto? A guy most of us know but don’t expect a whole lot from. Flawed post-hype prospect with a sky-high ceiling but low odds of reaching them…

9:36	Justin Mason: Garrett Hampson, Jorge Mateo

9:36	Fantasy Question: Do you have any faith in Marco Gonzalez, Stripling, CMart, Gibson, Kuechel or Wacha to either return to form or step up? Trying to figure out my keeps, thanks!

9:36	Justin Mason: I have faith in CMart, Gibson, Stripling, and Wacha

9:36	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I feel like we’re at the garbage off-season trade offer juncture of the year. Not long before the garbage spring training trade offers, and then follows the garbage in-season trade offers!

9:36	Justin Mason: pretty much

9:37	Keeperlicious: i just traded kershaw for forrest whitley in a keep forever league. any regrets?

9:37	Justin Mason: If you don’t care about the immediate future, then no

9:37	EJ: Dynasty league, Goldschmidt or Castellanos?

9:37	Justin Mason: goldy

9:37	Nick: Is it worth keeping any of Albert Almora, Dustin Fowler, Derek Fisher, Chad Pinder in a 12 team keep forever dynasty with 50 man rosters (MLB only, no prospects)? Do any of them have a high enough ceiling to hold?

9:38	Justin Mason: Fowler for sure

9:38	Hakaida: In a keeper league, what’s the best way to bring in new owners that are inheriting bad teams?

9:38	Justin Mason: discount their first year, but make them pay for the first two?

9:38	Justin Mason: or appeal to their ego lol

9:38	Unlce Rico: 16 team dynasty I can keep two: Rizzo, Goldy and Machado. Who’s the odd man out?

9:39	Justin Mason: I guess it is Rizzo, but that is close. Can you trade two of them for a top 5 player?

9:40	Justin Mason: Got to run guys. Remember you can always hit me up on twitter at @Justinmasonfwfb and friend me on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG