Archive for First Base Rankings

Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 20 First Basemen for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (offense based on linear weights), you’ll notice speed is less of a factor here than Paul’s rotisserie ranking lists.  Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for OBP, OPS, or sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review.  If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.

In 2019, the 29 qualified first basemen averaged the following production:

• 5.88 Points Per Game (P/G)
• 30 HR
• 10% BB%
• 22% K%
• .227 ISO
• .268 AVG
• .353 OBP
• .495 SLG
• .354 wOBA
• 120 wRC+

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Previous Rankings

Preseason 

May

June

It’s been interesting to watch the path of first basemen this season, as some of the big names started off relatively slow. I probably had too many tiers since guys were all over the place and I was still getting my feet wet with this process. I was now able to cut it down to five tiers and I am feeling more comfortable with these evaluations than past ones mainly because the numbers are starting to normalize well.

Alex Chamberlain brought up an interesting question in his rankings, regarding what people are looking for. Should these be rest of the season rankings? End of season? Where players currently stand? I definitely don’t want this to purely be a ranking of what players have done so far, since you can go to other websites and they can quantify that. As I mentioned in my other rankings, these are more predicative, though admittedly, I weighed current season performance more than I have in my other rankings. Although the Jose Abreus, Adrian Gonzalez‘, and Mark Teixeiras gave me some trouble when trying to rank since there should be some bounceback, but their performance so far has not shown much of it (at least in terms of fantasy value).

John Coltrane died on July 17, 1967. In honor of his music, I have decided to set up the tiers by my favorite Coltrane albums. This list can change frequently, and I left off the live performances because that is a whole other world that I may not have been able to escape. However, if you’re new to jazz and want to explore Coltrane, these albums are excellent starting points. I love his later stuff, but that can get a little too crazy for somebody not very familiar with jazz.

Tier 1: A Love Supreme

Paul Goldschmidt

Anthony Rizzo

Miguel Cabrera

Rizzo had not been placed in the first tier previously because of his low batting average, but the counting stats were certainly there. Now that his batting average is finally where it should be (.281), I can’t see any reason not to include him in this tier. There wasn’t too much of a doubt he could get to this point, especially with his previously low BABIP, so it’s good to see he was able to get that BA up in such a short amount of time.

Some of the other players outside of the first tier may have better counting stats than Goldschmidt and Cabrera, but you are not going to find many players more consistent than these guys. Goldschmidt gets the top ranking because he adds value with the stolen base as he has 11 right now.

Tier 2: Giant Steps

Edwin Encarnacion

Wil Myers

Chris Davis

Brandon Belt

Eric Hosmer

Joey Votto

Carlos Santana

Mark Trumbo

Freddie Freeman

I should’ve had Wil Myers higher earlier, but his low BB% really concerned me. He has improved that as he is very close to 10% (9.6), and outside of batting average, outdoes Goldy in every fantasy category. Based on performance so far, he has been the number one fantasy first baseman. Again, though, this list accounts for what will happen and I still think Myers will do very well, but the HR/FB is a bit high to sustain (20.4%) so there will probably be some regression. Not enough to sell him, but enough to say by the end of the season he is not in the top tier.

Overall, this is an excellent tier, especially with Freeman and Votto performing at the levels we generally expect from them. All these guys can help you in 3-4 categories, and are weak in at least one. Some because of environment (Belt’s low HRs), some because of situation (Freeman’s low RBIs), or others because that is who they are (Santana’s low BA).

Tier 3: Lush Life

Chris Carter

Albert Pujols

Mike Napoli

Adrian Gonzalez

Jose Abreu

Hanley Ramirez

Travis Shaw

C.J. Cron

Mark Reynolds

David Freese

Now we’re entering the tier where you only getting about 2-3 categories of strength which each player. This is also a pretty old group so age and health are definitely concerns for these guys. Adrian Gonzalez has not done much in fantasy with only 6 HRs, so he could be a good buy-low candidate. Then again, according to Jeff Sullivan, maybe the lack of power is real. The BA is strong as are the RBIs, and nothing really jumps out with his numbers that indicate that this lack of power was expected.

David Freese has played very well for the Pirates this season, and is seemingly outperforming his platoon partner (John Jaso) at first. Freese has value because of the super utility role he has, so he gets a nice amount of playing time. If Jaso continues to struggle, Pirates may consider calling up Josh Bell, which would take some 1B time away from Freese, though not totally stunting his playing time.

Tier 4: Ballads

Matt Adams

James Loney

Dae-Ho Lee

Logan Forsythe

Joe Mauer

Mark Teixeira

Matt Adams will probably see a lot more playing time now that Brandon Moss and Matt Carpenter are on the DL. Always a nice power source and could get some nice RBI opportunities, so he may be worth riding the wave especially if he gets hot.

I wasn’t a huge Loney fan when the Mets initially picked him up, and I wrote about his highs and lows here. Then the power has seemed to come back (.165 ISO), which now makes him a very intriguing player. Could be chalked to small sample size, but may also be because of Kevin Long, as noted on Mets Merized Online. Similarly to Daniel Murphy, Kevin Long has worked on Loney’s stance and approach to hit for more power. Seemingly, it has worked so far and has certainly worked for Murphy since the end of last season.

Mark Teixeira has had a tough season and based on what he has done this year, he should be in a lower tier. I can’t give up on his past years just yet and don’t want to miss out on that potential power surge, hence putting him in the fourth tier. I have nothing more substantial than that.

Tier 5: Blue Train

A.J. Reed

Ryan Zimmerman

Logan Morrison

John Jaso

Tommy Joseph

Byung-Ho Park

Mitch Moreland

Rob Refsnyder

Billy Butler

Yonder Alonso

Chris Johnson

Marwin Gonzalez

I’ve been surprised Reed has struggled the way he has so far. Didn’t think he’d set the world on fire like Tyler White did when he first came up, but thought he would hit better than .138. Out of this group, he has the most upside and would be the most likely guy I would invest in if these were my only options. Zimmerman has been a surprise in that he has been healthy and pretty brutal. Probably unfair I stuck him in the 5th tier and didn’t do the same to Teixeira, but I just don’t see much upside to Zimmerman anymore.

Disabled List (Tiers based upon return)

Matt Carpenter (Tier 2)

Brandon Moss (Tier 3)

Justin Bour (Tier 3)

Lucas Duda (Tier 3)

Steve Pearce (Tier 4)

We have two months of data in the books, so I have decided to deviate a littler further from my previous first base tier rankings. In case you were curious about where the first basemen ranked previously, here you go:

Preseason 1B Rankings

May 1B Rankings (although I mistakenly put April)

I’ve decided to add some tiers this go around because there are players who fall into two categories who I am having difficulty tiering with the rest of the first basemen. The first additional tier will be guys out for any significant time be it injury, suspension, or are simply in the minors. It’s great to stash some of these guys if you have the room, but you should be looking elsewhere for playing time so I simply ranked them in value in their own tier.

The other tier is for those multi-positional players. I had been very adamant that you should not be using catchers as your first basemen. That was until I had Kevin Plawecki, Yasmani Grandal, and Miguel Montero in a two catcher NL-only league, and needed to trade my starting first baseman for speed. So I am more sympathetic to wanting to put different people at 1B, but still struggle where to rank them amongst the more regular first basemen. This tier is just ranking those players with ten or less games at 1B who will not get the majority time at first. A few guys may have slipped in who are also ranked with the rest of the 1B.

The theme for this month’s tier rankings are my favorite summer jams. I work in education and yesterday was the last day for the students at the middle school I work at, so summer has officially started for us. Some songs have summer themes, whereas others are just fun songs that I like to hear during the summer months. If you disagree with my song selections, please make sure to list your favorites and why I am wrong, and I will do my best to ignore them. Just kidding…sort of. Anyway, hope you enjoy!
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“Microphone Check 1,2, what is this?”

Well, it’s not a five foot assassin, but instead it’s my first run at a tiered ranking of the first baseman. Also a week late in my tribute; sorry about that. I appreciate any and all feedback, but do keep in mind these are subjective and based on a predicative nature. Just because I have somebody tiered lower than you do doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go with what you think is best. Naturally. Also, players with a star next to their name played less than 20 games at first base last season, so they may or may not be eligible depending on your format, and they may or may not receive eligibility during the season.

For the astute and avid Rotograph readers, you will notice these rankings differ from the staff rankings we did earlier in March. I hadn’t done as much research for those at the time, so these are more in line with what I think at this moment. Which may change in ten minutes. Alas, the fun of rankings.

In the spirit of subjectivity and my love for music, I have created tiers based on my personal favorite jazz styles. In no way am I saying my top tier is the best style of jazz; just my personal favorite. In a perfect world, we could all somehow discuss jazz and baseball together. Here is my first attempt at doing so. Keep it real!

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Below is the First Base installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
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Back, but probably not better than ever. If the rankings are crazy, blame my cold.

Gigantic Two
Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera

I knew it felt wrong to slide Cabrera in front of Pujols, so after some evaluation, Pujols is back on top. I expect Miggy to have better power numbers going forward, but the steals that Albert may grab you will make up for it.

Big Three
Joey Votto
Justin Morneau
Adrian Gonzalez

Three lefties, and three big performers. All of these guys will put up similar numbers, but I think Votto comes out ahead. But, really, can you go wrong with any of them?

Strong Contributors
Ryan Howard
Adam Dunn
Kevin Youkilis
Paul Konerko

Howard has been disappointing, Konerko has been a nice surprise, while Dunn and Youk continue to do their thing. Losing Pedroia, and possibly Victor for some time could hurt Youkilis’ value. …

I am Jack’s First Baseman
Prince Fielder
Mark Teixeira
Garrett Jones
Troy Glaus

It pains me to do it, but Fielder and Teixeira need to drop down this far. Fielder isn’t even driving in runs, something you’d expect even if he wasn’t hitting homers. I’m really close to putting Jones above Teixeira. Maybe Glaus, too.

Writers Block
Billy Butler
Nick Swisher
Adam LaRoche

Big AVG from Butler, but it’s a bit too empty. Swisher has been great, and LaRoche needs to bring his strikeout rate down.

The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott
Justin Smoak
Aubrey Huff
David Ortiz
Derrek Lee
Carlos Pena
Russell Branyan
Ike Davis
Lance Berkman

I know this group is huge, but that’s how close these guys are. You could take any one of these guys over another, and I couldn’t chew you out for it.

I bet some of you fine folks are wondering where your catcher rankings are, right? Well, I am alternating weeks with catcher rankings and corner infield rankings. At this point in the year, rankings won’t change much week to week, so this is a much better option.

Gigantic Two
Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols

Dropping Albert to the number two spot doesn’t feel right, but Miggy deserves to be ranked above him.

Big Three
Justin Morneau
Adrian Gonzalez
Joey Votto

Remember when everyone got on my case for keeping Morneau down? Good times. After the top five, the rankings got really tricky. Here goes nothing.

Surprised?
Ryan Howard
Adam Dunn
Kevin Youkilis
Prince Fielder

I never thought I’d see Howard and Fielder down this far, but they’ve looked like mere mortals this season. Howard has an excuse (batting stance), but what’s Prince’s? Did he accidentally eat some meat?

I Am Jack’s First Baseman
Paul Konerko
Mark Teixeira
Garrett Jones
Troy Glaus

Jack has a catcher, so he should probably think about picking up a first baseman. I have no clue what is going on with Mark Teixeira, but it looks like he may have lost some pop in his bat compared to last year.

Writer’s Block
Billy Butler
Adam LaRoche
Nick Swisher
Luke Scott

If you want average, Butler’s your man. If you want OBP, Swisher’s your guy.

The Rest of ‘Em
David Ortiz
Carlos Pena
James Loney
Aubrey Huff
Lance Berkman
Justin Smoak
Derrek Lee
Russell Branyan

Pena falls really far, because I’m not willing to pay for his batting average to get his homers. He has some luck issues, but he’s not helping anything. This is a big group, but I felt like all of them belonged together. Could make good points for all of them being above each other. Papi might belong in the “Writer’s Block” group, but I’m not comfortable putting him there.

Aloha, America! Another week means another look at the first base rankings. Just like last week, wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated).”

The Machine
Albert Pujols (.403, .452)

Only a 14.3% HR/FB rate for Albert. Going to have to work for a 40-HR season, according to ZiPS.

Big Ballerz
Miguel Cabrera (.449, .419)
Mark Teixeira (.341, .369)
Ryan Howard (.347, .387)
Prince Fielder (.368, .395)

Teix and Howard switch spots, but this group stays intact.

Not Quite Elite
Joey Votto (.392, .388)
Adrian Gonzalez (.346, .375)
Justin Morneau (.486, .421)
Kevin Youkilis (.430, .405)

If Gonzalez could get his O-Swing% back down to his 2009 rate (22.7% vs. 29.6% in 2010), that would be swell. Youkilis has the lowest K% of his career, and his HR/FB% is down to his career average. However, he has been 4%-6% above his current career average the past two years, so he may see a couple extra HR’s as the year progresses. Morneau has a .486 wOBA! Holy crap.

Pure…Unadulterated…Power
Kendry Morales (.342, .352)
Adam Dunn (.400, .400)
Paul Konerko (.425, .386)

ZiPS says Konerko is on a 34 HR pace, which would be the most since he hit 35 in 2006.

Writers Block
Billy Butler (.375, .368)
Adam LaRoche (.353, .375)
Carlos Pena (.292, .356)
James Loney (.361, .357)

LaRoche has an increased FB rate, and a decreased HR/FB%. Could we see more power later on in the year?

Switch Hitting Brigade
Derrek Lee (.318, .355)
Garrett Jones (.354, .360)
Justin Smoak (.319, .327)
Lance Berkman (.357, .388)
Nick Swisher (.399, .370)

Smoak may not be putting up great wOBA or batting average numbers quite yet, but what are the odds he has a .186 BABIP with a 23.8 LD% for the rest of the year? Also, Derrek Lee falls all the way from 12 to 17. I think I’ve given him a fair shot to put up numbers, but he isn’t producing this year. On a kinder note, Swisher debuts at #22. Before the season began, I would have thought you were crazy to suggest Nick Swisher would be on this list. Now, it’s reality.

The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott (.349, .354)
Todd Helton (.315, .353)
David Ortiz (.326, .366)
Ike Davis (.360, .303)

Making his debut this week is the one, the only, Ike Davis. Also noteworthy is Helton moving from 20 to 23, and he may be done as a fantasy producer in non-OBP leagues.

Back after a week lost to illness, here are your first base rankings. wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated)”. If the wOBA numbers are a couple of points off, don’t sweat it, because it’s just me writing these things up ahead of time.

The Machine
Albert Pujols (.407, .455)

Albert’s OPS is below 1.000. I’m shocked.

Big Ballerz
Miguel Cabrera (.460, .420)
Ryan Howard (.336, .385)
Mark Teixeira (.331, .366)
Prince Fielder (.346, .389)

Cabrera holds strong at number two, with Teixeira overtaking Fielder for the number four spot. It wasn’t his power surge in Boston that did it. Just kidding, it was his power surge in Boston.

Not Quite Elite
Adrian Gonzalez (.369, .379)
Joey Votto (.424, .398)
Kevin Youkilis (.425, .399)

Am I the only one who thinks Youkilis could hit way more homers if he wanted to? Also, Joey Votto is really good.

A Cuban, A Canadian, and a Fat Guy
Justin Morneau (.466, .412)
Kendry Morales (.354, .356)
Adam Dunn (.393, .396)
Derrek Lee (.304, .355)
Paul Konerko (.455, .393)

This group keeps on growing. Adam Dunn jumps up two spots, and Konerko continues his ascent back into fantasy relevance.

Writers Block
Carlos Pena (.295, .357)
Billy Butler (.364, .365)
Adam LaRoche (.371, .380)
James Loney (.337, .350)

Remember, folks, Billy Butler is only 24 years old. It doesn’t look like it will be this year, but his power will continue to develop and he will be freakin’ awesome.

Two Men and a Baby
Garrett Jones (.348, .359)
Justin Smoak (.314, .327)*
Todd Helton (.306, .354)
Lance Berkman (.288, .375)

Smoak does not have a ZiPS Update, so his number is simply his ZiPS projection. I like what he’s doing thus far, and yes, I’d rather have him than Helton or Berkman going forward.

The Rest of ‘Em
Daric Barton (.371, .360)
Luke Scott (.282, .333)
Russell Branyan (.263, .336)
David Ortiz (.291, .358)

Branyan is yet to hit a dinger this year, and Big Papi is showing little signs of life once and awhile. Don’t get me wrong, he’s very close to done, but he might have one decent year left in him. At least, that’s what the Red Sox are hoping.

Last week of using FANS wOBA projections. Promise.

The Machine
Albert Pujols (.442 wOBA)

I was going to work in an Edward Norton reference and a “Albert is good” tidbit, but I just don’t have the energy or creative juices to do such a thing.

Big Ballerz
Miguel Cabrera (.404)
Ryan Howard (.388)
Prince Fielder (.408)
Mark Teixeira (.405)

Cabrera moves above Howard to claim the second spot on this list. I am positive that this will ruin Howard’s week.

Not Quite Elite
Adrian Gonzalez (.395)
Joey Votto (.399)
Kevin Youkilis (.401)

After asking the masses how to order these three, I decided this was the best option for this week. Youk is great in OPS leagues, but the other two will provide more traditional fantasy numbers for their owners.

A Cuban, A Canadian, and a Fat Guy
Justin Morneau (.377)
Kendry Morales (.362)
Derek Lee (.381)
Carlos Pena (.381)
Adam Dunn (.385)

Pena surpasses Dunn this go around, but I’m not sure if it will stick. This internalized debate went down to the 25th hour, but I decided on Pena. Thoughts?

Writers Block
Paul Konerko (.350)
Billy Butler (.379)
James Loney (.344)
Adam LaRoche (.351)
Garrett Jones (.347)

Paul Konerko still has some juice left in his batteries, eh? LaRoche looks to be coming around earlier than I thought he would, which is a blessing for the Diamondbacks. Jones needs to put up some more power numbers in the next couple of weeks to keep himself at an ownable level.

Two Men and a Baby
Todd Helton (.386)
Lance Berkman (.396)
Justin Smoak (.325, CHONE)

If you’re in a non-keeper league, Smoak isn’t worth a look this year. Keeper leagues are another story, however, and I picked him up once the announcement was made.

The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott (.346)
Daric Barton (.350)
Russell Branyan (.359)
David Ortiz (.362)

Falling off of the list are Chris Davis and Nick Johnson. I know that you’re wondering why Papi stays and Johnson goes, right? Papi at least has some power potential going forward this year, something Johnson has none of. In OBP leagues, Johnson is the no-brainer choice, but otherwise Papi is probably a better option.