Rankings Update: First Base
Aloha, America! Another week means another look at the first base rankings. Just like last week, wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated).”
The Machine
Albert Pujols (.403, .452)
Only a 14.3% HR/FB rate for Albert. Going to have to work for a 40-HR season, according to ZiPS.
Big Ballerz
Miguel Cabrera (.449, .419)
Mark Teixeira (.341, .369)
Ryan Howard (.347, .387)
Prince Fielder (.368, .395)
Teix and Howard switch spots, but this group stays intact.
Not Quite Elite
Joey Votto (.392, .388)
Adrian Gonzalez (.346, .375)
Justin Morneau (.486, .421)
Kevin Youkilis (.430, .405)
If Gonzalez could get his O-Swing% back down to his 2009 rate (22.7% vs. 29.6% in 2010), that would be swell. Youkilis has the lowest K% of his career, and his HR/FB% is down to his career average. However, he has been 4%-6% above his current career average the past two years, so he may see a couple extra HR’s as the year progresses. Morneau has a .486 wOBA! Holy crap.
Pure…Unadulterated…Power
Kendry Morales (.342, .352)
Adam Dunn (.400, .400)
Paul Konerko (.425, .386)
ZiPS says Konerko is on a 34 HR pace, which would be the most since he hit 35 in 2006.
Writers Block
Billy Butler (.375, .368)
Adam LaRoche (.353, .375)
Carlos Pena (.292, .356)
James Loney (.361, .357)
LaRoche has an increased FB rate, and a decreased HR/FB%. Could we see more power later on in the year?
Switch Hitting Brigade
Derrek Lee (.318, .355)
Garrett Jones (.354, .360)
Justin Smoak (.319, .327)
Lance Berkman (.357, .388)
Nick Swisher (.399, .370)
Smoak may not be putting up great wOBA or batting average numbers quite yet, but what are the odds he has a .186 BABIP with a 23.8 LD% for the rest of the year? Also, Derrek Lee falls all the way from 12 to 17. I think I’ve given him a fair shot to put up numbers, but he isn’t producing this year. On a kinder note, Swisher debuts at #22. Before the season began, I would have thought you were crazy to suggest Nick Swisher would be on this list. Now, it’s reality.
The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott (.349, .354)
Todd Helton (.315, .353)
David Ortiz (.326, .366)
Ike Davis (.360, .303)
Making his debut this week is the one, the only, Ike Davis. Also noteworthy is Helton moving from 20 to 23, and he may be done as a fantasy producer in non-OBP leagues.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Troy Glaus.
Would rather have the everyday Braves cleanup hitter than anyone below Loney in your rankings, except for maybe Swisher, Jones or Berkman. Everyone else has issues with age or experience.
When Glaus is healthy (and he’s proven that he is this year) he can mash. He has a .350 wOBA despite a slump in April and ZiPS has him projected at .356. He’s only 34 so it’s not like he’s about to drop off a cliff age-wise.
hooray for ike!
I wish he still had 3rd base eligibility.
yawn
Teix vs. Gonzalez, I have Gonz and I had been evaluating this straight up trade. On first blush i thought it would be an obvious choice (that being Teix) but the projections have them about equal. Was wondering what you thought (clearly the rankings have one above the other but idk if that would change if given different stats to have to care about). The hitting stats in my league are:
Runs, 2B, HR, RBI, BB, K, SB, AVG, & OPS
ZiPS has Teix finishing the year with only a .260 avg. I don’t see how he won’t hit better than that. Teix walks just as much, strikes out a little less, and plays on a better team so R/RBI are easier to come by. Teix is still better, in my book.
Nice to see Morneau getting his due.
He’s the most productive 1B right now and he’s still in the 3rd tier. That’s getting his due?
Adam Dunn is as consistent as a metronome. Its kinda amazing how he does almost the exact (tick) same (tock) thing (tick) every (tock) year (tick).
Do you see Billy Butler climbing this list at all? It seems like he is hitting everything right now.
Berkman’s gotten hot the last week or so, for what it’s worth. I’d like to think it’s proof he’s not done.
What’s it gonna take for Morneau to move up?!
Apparently it’ll take more than an AL Best BA and SLG and a MLB Best OBP.
Agreed – Morneau is getting the shaft. He currently has the best wOBA on this list (and that’s before his 2HR game 5/17) but moves all the way from 9th to 8th?!?
He moved up after last week :). There are signs (mainly BABIP) that makes me hesitant to move him above AGon. But, I’ll take it under consideration.
BABIP, are you kidding? Because he’s lucking out on bloop hits? Because he’s playing in the home run haven that is Target Field where 2 of 11 of his HR have been hit?
BABIP is usually high when a hitter is murdering everything in sight.
He needs to stop being Canadian.
😉