Rankings Update: First Base
Last week of using FANS wOBA projections. Promise.
The Machine
Albert Pujols (.442 wOBA)
I was going to work in an Edward Norton reference and a “Albert is good” tidbit, but I just don’t have the energy or creative juices to do such a thing.
Big Ballerz
Miguel Cabrera (.404)
Ryan Howard (.388)
Prince Fielder (.408)
Mark Teixeira (.405)
Cabrera moves above Howard to claim the second spot on this list. I am positive that this will ruin Howard’s week.
Not Quite Elite
Adrian Gonzalez (.395)
Joey Votto (.399)
Kevin Youkilis (.401)
After asking the masses how to order these three, I decided this was the best option for this week. Youk is great in OPS leagues, but the other two will provide more traditional fantasy numbers for their owners.
A Cuban, A Canadian, and a Fat Guy
Justin Morneau (.377)
Kendry Morales (.362)
Derek Lee (.381)
Carlos Pena (.381)
Adam Dunn (.385)
Pena surpasses Dunn this go around, but I’m not sure if it will stick. This internalized debate went down to the 25th hour, but I decided on Pena. Thoughts?
Writers Block
Paul Konerko (.350)
Billy Butler (.379)
James Loney (.344)
Adam LaRoche (.351)
Garrett Jones (.347)
Paul Konerko still has some juice left in his batteries, eh? LaRoche looks to be coming around earlier than I thought he would, which is a blessing for the Diamondbacks. Jones needs to put up some more power numbers in the next couple of weeks to keep himself at an ownable level.
Two Men and a Baby
Todd Helton (.386)
Lance Berkman (.396)
Justin Smoak (.325, CHONE)
If you’re in a non-keeper league, Smoak isn’t worth a look this year. Keeper leagues are another story, however, and I picked him up once the announcement was made.
The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott (.346)
Daric Barton (.350)
Russell Branyan (.359)
David Ortiz (.362)
Falling off of the list are Chris Davis and Nick Johnson. I know that you’re wondering why Papi stays and Johnson goes, right? Papi at least has some power potential going forward this year, something Johnson has none of. In OBP leagues, Johnson is the no-brainer choice, but otherwise Papi is probably a better option.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Morneau should be ahead of Votto and Youkilis, at least.
Completely agree. As far as I can tell Morneau is beating both of these guys in every offensive category.
Based on numbers so far, or how we expect them to line up at the end of the season? Because if I care about any of these guys at all, it’s because I’m trying to trade for their future production, not what they did in the first month of the season.
Any thoughts on Ike Davis? He seems to be holding his own thus far (27 AB, .333 AVG, .424 OBP, 5 BB, 8 K, even hitting vs lefties) and had produced in the second of the double header last night.
Davis will certainly be in next week’s rankings. I wanted a little bigger sample size and more time to sift through his minor league data before making a decision.
Another vote for Ike Davis here. In our deep 12 team league (31 roster spots), Barton, Ortiz and Scott are in the FA pool, whereas Davis is in someone’s starting line-up. I suggest a revision to this ranking.
Cantu vs. Dunn you ask? Power numbers alone would suggest Cantu by a hair, but given Dunn’s substantial benefit of OBP to Cantu’s, Dunn will have significantly more Runs than Cantu by year’s end.
Pena/Dunn, Dunn/Pena, I really don’t think it matters with those two so long as they stay in the same tier together. In fact I’d have them in their own “Three True Outcome Heros” Tier…
Zach, Dave Cameron wrote an article early in March comparing the early career progressions of Teixeira and Gonzalez. It was a compelling read, and now you have AGonz ranked just below Tex. Here’s my question–in a keeper league situation (12 team, H2H–my league counts OBP and SLG plus BB and K) how great is the difference between these two as keepers, considering the age difference? Not that I expect Tex to experience the kind of precipitous power decline I see coming for Howard in a year or two, but is AGonz being 27 enough to really consider him Tex’s equal, more or less, over the next 3-5 years? I’m considering giving up Tex to get AGonz and some pitching, but Tex has been consistent for years, and AGonz has basically been really good for just 3 years. The issues is that the best I’m likely to get back is something like AGonz plus Oswalt. I need pitching, but I’m not desperate–do you make that deal? My other concern is that AGonz’s value going forward has almost everything to do with where he ends up getting traded/signed, and that’s pretty tough to predict at the moment, whereas I expect the Yankees lineup, even though it is aging, will continue to be elite for several years (or decades) to come.
If you can get A-Gon and a solid SP for Teix, I’d do it in a keeper league. Oswalt may not be enough, but the general idea is solid.
A-Gon’s value does have to be with being signed/traded, and that’s a good thing. You won’t find a park that’s worse for him than Petco, and he won’t go to a team with a lineup worse than the Padres.You want him to be traded, and soon.
Thanks Zach. The fact that it’s Oswalt is sort of the problem. This guy isn’t going to give me Felix back in a deal like this–nor should he–but I could get some third piece, like maybe Swisher, or Quentin–who is big risk, big upside–or possibly Smoak, though I doubt it, again because it’s a keeper league. Really appreciate the feedback though. I don’t normally have too much difficulty deciding how I feel about deals, but this is a tough one I will continue to ponder…appreciate the input.
Howard so high?
I’m as encouraged by his (relatively) low K rate as I am discouraged by his low walk rate and ISO
Opinions?
I’d certainly value Fielder over Howard at this point.
To be clear, OBP means a lot in my league and all extra base hits have great value, but it doesn’t seem like Howard’s hitting all that well (powerwise)
So if I picked up Smoak in the wake of Chris Davis’s underperformance and subsequent demotion, I made a mistake by not picking up Luke Scott or Russell Branyan instead? Really?
I’m not being facetious, I just want to know what’s best.
I’m in a pretty deep mixed league – 14 teams, 28 man rosters.
Finally, now that I think about it, I would have been better off with Branyan or Scott instead of Chris Davis from the get-go, but that’s another story…
Berkman seems really low. Is it just injury risk, or do really think he won’t hit when he’s in the lineup?