2016 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings – First Base
Below is the First Base installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.
In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
We can be reached on twitter as follows:
Trey Baughn
Joe Douglas
Tom Oltarzewski
Justin Vibber
Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value
| Name | ELIG | Justin | Joe | Tom | Trey | Split | Otto. | AVG. | (+/-) | |
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | $54 | $51 | $49 | $56 | $7 | $46 | $53 | $7 |
| 2 | Joey Votto | 1B | $44 | $47 | $50 | $52 | $8 | $37 | $48 | $11 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | 1B | $43 | $47 | $46 | $40 | $7 | $57 | $44 | ($13) |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | 1B | $44 | $46 | $40 | $44 | $6 | $34 | $44 | $10 |
| 5 | Jose Abreu | 1B | $38 | $34 | $33 | $34 | $5 | $38 | $35 | ($3) |
| 6 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | $30 | $34 | $35 | $29 | $6 | $29 | $32 | $3 |
| 7 | Edwin Encarnacion | 1B | $28 | $36 | $31 | $31 | $8 | $32 | $32 | $0 |
| 8 | Prince Fielder | 1B | $24 | $22 | $29 | $27 | $7 | $24 | $26 | $2 |
| 9 | David Ortiz | 1B | $23 | $24 | $26 | $19 | $7 | $19 | $23 | $4 |
| 10 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | $21 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $4 | $15 | $19 | $4 |
| 11 | Carlos Santana | 1B | $18 | $15 | $17 | $14 | $4 | $30 | $16 | ($14) |
| 12 | Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | $17 | $15 | $16 | $19 | $4 | $24 | $17 | ($7) |
| 13 | Albert Pujols | 1B | $12 | $13 | $10 | $7 | $6 | $23 | $11 | ($12) |
| 14 | Kendrys Morales | 1B | $11 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $2 | $4 | $10 | $6 |
| 15 | Byung-ho Park | UTIL | $10 | $12 | $4 | $6 | $8 | $0 | $8 | $8 |
| 16 | Lucas Duda | 1B | $14 | $9 | $2 | $13 | $12 | $8 | $10 | $2 |
| 17 | Victor Martinez | 1B | $4 | $8 | $11 | $4 | $7 | $13 | $7 | ($6) |
| 18 | Mark Teixeira | 1B | $5 | $6 | $4 | $4 | $2 | $5 | $5 | $0 |
| 19 | Adam Lind | 1B | $1 | $5 | $6 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $4 | ($2) |
| 20 | A.J. Reed | 1B | $2 | $4 | $2 | $4 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $0 |
| 21 | Alex Rodriguez | Util | $1 | $2 | $4 | $4 | $3 | $5 | $3 | ($2) |
| 22 | Pedro Alvarez | 1B | $4 | $1 | $1 | $3 | $3 | $8 | $2 | ($6) |
| 23 | Gregory Bird | 1B | $1 | $3 | $2 | $1 | $2 | $5 | $2 | ($3) |
| 24 | Chris Carter | 1B | $1 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $1 | $10 | $2 | ($8) |
| 25 | Joe Mauer | 1B | $4 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $9 | $1 | ($8) |
| 26 | Mitch Moreland | 1B | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $0 | $4 | $1 | ($3) |
| 27 | Ryan Zimmerman | 1B | $2 | $1 | $0 | $2 | $2 | $18 | $1 | ($17) |
| 28 | Matthew Adams | 1B | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $7 | $1 | ($6) |
| 29 | Justin Bour | 1B | $0 | $2 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $3 | $1 | ($2) |
| 30 | Josh Bell | 1B | $0 | $2 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $3 | $1 | ($2) |
| 31 | Justin Smoak | 1B | $0 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $5 | $0 | ($5) |
| Total $ | $457 | $469 | $451 | $450 | ||||||
| Total Ranked | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | ||||||
Some Takeaways:
Only players who received a ranking from at least one of the four of us were included. Players not listed are likely post-auction pick-ups ($1 players). The line between a $1 player and a post-auction pick-up is very small.
Each owner has different biases to certain positions. To help illustrate these we’ve included “Total $” and “Total ranked” at the bottom of the table. We hope this helps you pick apart some different owner strategies/biases.
The (+/-) column may be helpful in determining which players may generally be overrated by your league mates.
Joe works at a consulting firm in Pittsburgh. When he isn't working or studying for actuarial exams, he focuses on baseball. He also writes @thepointofpgh. Follow him on twitter @Ottoneutrades
No Brandon belt?
Belt has OF eligibility. He will be ranked in that post.
Look at that split on Duda! What is the driving force behind that?
Also didn’t realize how undervalued Votto seems to be based on what he has cost in Ottoneu so far.
Votto was injured in 2014, which probably caused him to be owned at a discount in 2015.
That’s a good point. Totally forgot about the injury.
Duda’s variation is probably due to differing opinions about how to handle his left/right splits. My value for him is definitely closer to Justin’s, since it’s quite easy to platoon with such deep rosters.
I’m the primary Duda hater – I just don’t think he’s that good! I feel like he’s constantly underperforming, and on top of that Steamer predicts a steep dropoff for next year. I liked him much more when he was OF eligible but as a 1B I’m not very interested.
For example, I don’t think Duda is any more valuable than Adam Lind, who I actually have ranked higher, while the other guys have him lower than Duda. If I’m going to platoon, I’d rather take a shot on someone like Lind, who is playing in a good park and has a chance to overperform because of that. Mitch Moreland would be an example of Duda-lite to me, I think you could get him much more cheaply and get most of the production.
I’ve been informed Lind is in Seattle and not on the Brewers. Oops. I still don’t like Duda!
Wil Myers?
Also has OF eligibility.
Is the thinking that since Bird is lost for the season, A-Rod will get some 1B starts and gain eligibility?
He has 1 MLB start there and it came last year.
A-rod is included in this list more as a DH, and ottoneu Util player, than as a 1B. It’s rare that a player has only DH eligibility, so we tend to lump those players in with 1B when they arise, since 1B is the most similar position in terms of offense to DH.
However, I *do* think it’s possible A-rod sneaks a few 1B appearances and gains eligibility. It might not happen until late in the season though, when it might not be that useful.
This article makes me feel better about keeping my $31 EE. I also kept a $26 Prince.
I fully understand you guys saying that soandso qualifies at another position. What does it hurt to put a player on both boards? How many people will draft Belt as a 1B? The answer is plenty
Speaking only for myself, the reason is that Belt might be a $13 OF according to my calculations, but presenting him with the 1B rankings at $13 would overrate his worth as a 1B (which for me would be about $5). The easiest solution was to list a player only at the position where they carry the most value.
Not to be holier-than-thou, too, but I think our rankings reflect that you probably shouldn’t draft and play Belt at 1B in ottoneu. Teams are free to do that, but since he offers more value at OF, we’d like to encourage teams to take advantage of that fact, and listing him only on the OF rank helps to make that point.
It would be like playing Schwarber at OF. Why would you do it when you can play him at the shallow catcher position? When you compare him to other catchers, he is worth a lot. When you compare him to other outfielders, he is worth less. If you’re buying Belt for $13 and playing him at 1B, you’re overpaying.
Thanks, Tom. This is extremely useful.
Good luck with the actuarial exams.
My first experience with fantasy baseball (1986) was a league comprised of actuaries from competitor financial services companies. It was a live draft, spreadsheet record keeping, and newspapers for stats.
Great league.
can you link to the rankings for the other positions in each article?
I will do this tonight. Good call.
awesome, thanks
This is a check to see if I understand these values correctly. For example, Davis and Belt have 1B eligibility but you see them as having more value at a different position (OF)? I mean they still have some value at 1B, which intrinsically makes them (potentially) more valuable because of dual eligibility. Right? What am I missing?
There are different philosophies on player rankings, but for these Ottoneu rankings we attempt to rank each player only once (by position), at the position they are most valuable. For example, Machado has SS eligibility in Ottoneu, so you’ll find him ranked highly in the SS rankings rather than 3B. He’s a great player either way, but he contributes much more value to your team if you actually play him at SS instead of at 3B, so these rankings assume a player’s value will be maximized. The same logic applies to 1B/OF dual-eligible players, and since OF has the lower replacement level, players like Chris Davis and Brandon Belt will be maximized by using them at the weaker (OF) position. In other words, if you’re counting on Brandon Belt to be your starting 1B in Ottoneu this season, your team is better off using him as one of your five OF and looking for a better 1B in the auction.
and i thought keeping miggy at $48 was a no-brainer . . .
Thanks for the data!
Any chance you could add an Ottoneu ID column? I’d love to screen scrape this into a spreadsheet for further cross-referencing to other data sources.