I have been wanting to write about Steven Matz for some time, and this column is providing me with a reason to do so. Since Matz is coming off two good starts, I’m genuinely intrigued by what might be different for him lately, but he has been a curiosity all season.
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Wilmer Difo seems to be taking the Daniel Murphy trade in stride.
He received starts at second base in the first two games of the post-Murphy era in D.C., and he went 3 for 8 with each hit being for extra bases. (He also started for a third straight day on Thursday, though as of this writing, he is taking an 0-fer.) Difo has speed and can spray line drives, but power has not shown up as a key part of his skill set over his time in the majors. The flyball revolution is not for everyone, and Davey Martinez made sure to remind his 26-year-old infielder of that.
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If you’re noting a greater sense of urgency in this week’s Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts, that’s because it features a pair of pitchers set to make their next starts in mere hours upon publication of this piece. Many owners will have likely been anticipating Kevin Gausman’s Tuesday night start, as he is among the most-added pitchers in ESPN and CBS leagues. After a mediocre Braves debut back on Aug. 4, Gausman responded with two much better starts. While that may have been reason enough to pick him up, is it reason enough to start him right away?
Fantasy owners have not been holding Jose Berrios‘ two-game slump against him, as the vast majority of his owners (at least in CBS and Fantrax leagues) have him active — quite likely for his scheduled two-start week. An analysis into his recent starts will help us to see if that looks like the right call.
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If you read my recent piece on Lucas Giolito and Kyle Freeland, then you know I have a growing fascination with pitchers who excel at getting both chases and freezes. (And if you haven’t read it, you’ll find out why I’m fixated with them by going here.) Jakob Junis is this very sort of pitcher, yet it’s been hard to write glowing words about a starter with an ERA above 5.00 and an HR/9 north of 2.0.
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Lucas Giolito did not have a good game on Wednesday night against the Yankees. We can cut him some slack for giving up six of his seven runs in the second inning, but still, allowing seven runs in five innings is not the best look.
But should we view it as a predictable outcome for a pitcher with a 6.23 ERA facing one of the majors’ top offenses? Or can we see it as an aberration? If we look at Giolito’s last six starts, his profile is different enough from the one he built in his first 17 starts of the season that we may need to judge his recent and future results differently. Yes, six starts — and the 36 innings they comprise — represent a small sample, but the changes have been dramatic enough that they merit a closer look.
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Sometimes I have to stretch a little to include certain pitchers in either the Two Good Starts or Two Bad Starts category. It’s just unwieldly to occasionally call this column Two Good Starts, One Bad Start and One Meh Start, for example.
In the case of Lance Lynn, his recent game log could be more accurately described as One Excellent Start, One Great Long Relief Appearance and One Decent Start. I’m not changing the name of the column, but I’m going ahead and squeezing the square peg into the round hole. If it feels better to convince yourself that Lynn’s final start with the Twins was genuinely good or that his long relief debut for the Yankees was really a start, I am not going to stop you.
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We have all been wrapped up in the deadline deals for the last few days, so we could have easily missed something potentially relevant to fantasy owners over the weekend. Back on Sunday, the Reds beat the Phillies, 4-0, and the victors departed for their road trip with a three-game win streak. Gabe Kapler even said a whole bunch of nice stuff about the team that just took a series from his Phillies.
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If the All-Star break is a momentum-stopper, then this week’s exercise of finding meaning in back-to-back surprising starts could be moot. Charlie Morton, who entered the break with consecutive disappointing efforts, will roll into Wednesday night’s start at Coors Field against the Rockies having not pitched in a game in 13 days. Frankie Montas may have had some success against the Indians and Astros before the break, but Tuesday night’s outing at the Rangers comes after a 15-day hiatus.
Still, taking a peek at these pitchers’ two most recent starts can give us some context for evaluating their upcoming assignments. If Montas breezes through his start against the Rangers, who rank 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitchers, can we merely chalk it up to a favorable matchup after he held his own against two of the top six offenses against righties? And if Morton flubs his first start of the second half, should we blame it on the Coors Effect?
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With Thursday morning’s trade of Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Indians for Francisco Mejia, we have our first big reliever deal of the second half. While we now have to wait and see how Terry Francona balances his usage of Hand, Cody Allen and, eventually, Andrew Miller, we have had months to consider how Andy Green might deal with save situations once the Padres dealt their closer away.
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It just hasn’t been Salvador Perez’s season so far. He missed the Royals’ first 20 games with a Grade 2 MCL tear in his left knee, which he sustained while carrying luggage. Perez responded well upon his return, posting an .840 OPS over his first 11 games and even catching both games of a doubleheader just four days after getting activated.
Since then, Perez has been hampered by a different type of baggage. Over his last 54 games, he has been batting .194 overall and just .201 on balls in play. His xBA over that period, according to Baseball Savant, is .257, but that doesn’t mean that Perez’s fantasy owners should just sit back and enjoy the positive regression to come. Over last month, encompassing 101 plate appearances, Perez has batted .163 with one home run and three doubles, and his hard contact rate has been a pedestrian 34.7 percent.
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