Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts: Steven Matz and Zack Godley

I have been wanting to write about Steven Matz for some time, and this column is providing me with a reason to do so. Since Matz is coming off two good starts, I’m genuinely intrigued by what might be different for him lately, but he has been a curiosity all season.

Typically, if a pitcher has good control and locates in the strike zone frequently, batters will swing at a high rate. Conversely, pitchers who avoid working in the zone tend to have trouble inducing swings. This is intuitive, and the data back this assertion up. Not only is there a relationship between Zone% and Swing% among this season’s pitchers with at least 120 innings, but the connection appears to be particularly strong at the extremes of good and bad control. Every pitcher with a Zone% of at least 47 percent — with the lone exceptions of German Marquez and Matz– has an above-average Swing%. Except for Jake Odorizzi, every pitcher with a Zone% below 39 percent has a below-average Swing%.

While Marquez and Odorizzi are exceptions, they are still hovering in the vicinity of the regression line. Matz has completely gone rogue, boasting one of the lowest swing rates in this group while owning the highest rate of pitches in the strike zone.

The Mets’ lefty has actually trended this way going back to last year, but what makes this season even more notable is that hitters have been especially loathe to swing at his pitches that are not in the strike zone. Not only is it odd because opponents have compiled a .351 wOBA on his out-of-zone offerings, but because his 22.4 percent O-Swing% would be the lowest of this decade for a qualified starting pitcher.

Zack Godley, the other pitcher featured here, has been the anti-Matz, Prior to his two recent bad starts, Godley had been locating only 38.5 percent of his pitches in the strike zone while getting swings at a 46.5 percent rate. Though Godley’s Swing% is average, it’s decidedly high for a pitcher with subpar control.

The control-minded Matz has been better over his last two starts than the wild Godley, but should we trust either pitcher going forward?

Two Good Starts: Steven Matz

Setting the Stage: In case Matz’s profile isn’t strange enough, over his last five starts (including the two good ones), he has induced swings on just 18.7 percent of his out-of-zone pitches. His season-long swing drought had not hurt his strikeout rate substantially. A 19.8 percent called strike rate has been his best friend, allowing him to compile a 21.0 percent strikeout rate prior to his two most recent starts. However, his penchant for allowing home runs (1.56 HR/9) had helped to expand his ERA (4.60) and WHIP (1.37).

What’s Different: Beginning with Matz’s last bad start, a two-inning outing against the Phillies that marked his first appearance after a DL stint for a flexor pronator strain in his pitching arm, there has been a discernible change in both his release point and his sinker location against right-handed batters. As the graph shows, he has been releasing the ball a little further away from the plate.

Coinciding with the change in horizontal release point is a stronger inclination to locate his sinker more towards the upper corners and away from the heart of the strike zone against right-handed hitters. Over these three starts, Matz has also been able to induce more swings on pitches in the strike zone as well as more swinging strikes in general.

Recommendation: The changes to Matz’s release points and location have not been dramatic, so I am not at all confident that there is really anything to his recent uptick. Also, given that Matz’s next start comes this Saturday against the Giants at AT&T Park, I’m not sure we can rely on those results to conclude anything about a future change in value. The Giants are a below-average team at making contact, and their park is good at squelching homers. A poor start on Saturday is definitely a bad sign, but a good start merely means we have to remain in wait-and-see mode.

An increasing Z-Swing% can be a good thing, but only if it continues to be accompanied by a higher swinging strike rate. We’ll need to watch both of those trends over Matz’s future starts. If he reverts to his prior pattern of low swing rates, we already have plenty of evidence of that not working especially well.

Two Bad Starts: Zack Godley

Setting the Stage: Though Godley got off to a disappointing start this season, he began to round into form in mid-June. Over his 13 appearances (12 starts) prior to his two-start mini-slump, Godley had compiled a 3.38 ERA with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and only two home runs allowed over 72 innings.

What’s Different: Because Godley was on an extended run of consistently good performances, his back-to-back poor starts really stand out. During his hot streak, he was especially adept at getting chases (35.1 percent O-Swing%), and that is essential for a pitcher who doesn’t locate often in the zone. It’s also Godley’s best chance for success, since he is highly prone to allowing contact when he does throw strikes. His season-to-date 89.3 percent Z-Contact% is the 16th-highest among the 69 qualified starting pitchers.

Godley has not ceased to get chases; he has a 38.5 percent O-Swing% over his last two starts. Inexplicably, though, he has been throwing strikes, locating in the zone at a 45.1 percent rate. With hitters posting a 95.9 percent Z-Contact%, it’s a move that backfired on Godley in both starts.

Recommendation: For all of the ways in which Godley is different from Matz, he shares a common foe and venue for his next start. Godley is set to face the Giants in AT&T Park on Wednesday night. We can only hope that he doesn’t throw too many strikes. Until he gets back to his effectively wild ways, I won’t be taking a chance with him on my active roster.