Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts: Jakob Junis and Chris Archer

If you read my recent piece on Lucas Giolito and Kyle Freeland, then you know I have a growing fascination with pitchers who excel at getting both chases and freezes. (And if you haven’t read it, you’ll find out why I’m fixated with them by going here.) Jakob Junis is this very sort of pitcher, yet it’s been hard to write glowing words about a starter with an ERA above 5.00 and an HR/9 north of 2.0.

Just nine days ago, both of those things were true about Junis, but they no longer are because he’s made Two Good Starts. So now I get a chance to see if he can be the AL’s answer to Freeland, but with more strikeouts and a much more favorable home park.

Chris Archer, meanwhile, has left the AL behind (actually, he facing the Twins in Minnesota on Wednesday), but the change of scenery hasn’t worked to his advantage in his first two starts as a Pirate. Is it possible he left something behind at the Trop besides his sunburst-emblazoned uniform?

Two Good Starts: Jakob Junis

Setting the Stage: So, yes, Junis has had a bit of a problem with the long ball, and prior to his last two starts — both at Kaufmann Stadium — his HR/9 at home (2.3) was even worse than it was on the road (1.7). Even through his turbulent first four months of the season, there were two reasons to hold out some hope. Beginning with his May 1 outing in Boston, Junis took a brief hiatus from his home run issues, giving up just four homers over a 42.1-inning stretch. Over those seven starts, Junis had a more respectable 3.83 ERA with a 25.0 percent strikeout rate and 6.0 percent walk rate.

Also, between opening day and Aug. 1, Junis was one of 10 pitchers who had yielded at least 100 flyballs. Only Justin Verlander had a lower average flyball distance than Junis’ 319 feet (per Baseball Savant). James Shields, Sean Manaea and Jason Hammel were among those with higher average flyball distances, yet none had an HR/9 as high as 1.4 during that period. Maybe Junis is due for some home run rate regression.

What’s Different: Junis did not allow a homer in either of his last two starts, so he could be enjoying the fruits of some regression. As mentioned above, he has been good at getting batters to take a called strike, and he has taken his Z-Swing% down a notch over his two good starts. After inducing swings in the zone at a 56.7 percent rate against the Cubs, he came back with a 58.3 percent rate against the Cardinals. (The major league average is 67.3 percent.) Getting hitters to take a pass on more pitches in the zone could be contributing to a lower home run rate.

Junis could be embarking on a similar run to what he enjoyed in May and early June. Going back five starts, he has allowed only two home rnns, and he has been getting more grounders. His 51.4 percent ground ball rate over this stretch is a distinct upgrade over the 39.5 percent rate he compiled through his first 17 starts.

Recommendation: It’s still too soon to trust Junis, whose next start is scheduled for Friday against the White Sox at homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. He is an intriguing pitcher to monitor or possibly even stash in mixed leagues with at least 15 teams, should he continue to avoid home runs while providing a good strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Two Bad Starts: Chris Archer

Setting the Stage: Archer got his 2018 season off to a sluggish start, posting a 6.61 ERA through the end of April, but in his final 11 starts as a Ray, he cut back on his home run rate and compiled a 3.13 ERA. He was still something of a drag on a fantasy owner’s WHIP, as he put together a 1.28 mark over those starts that was bloated by a .326 BABIP, which in turn was inflated by a 26.7 percent line drive rate.

What’s Different: Matt Carpenter was the first batter Archer faced after the trade, and he welcomed him to the NL by depositing a 2-0 fastball in the center field seats. There is no shame in giving up a homer to Carpenter, and Archer did not face serious trouble until the fifth inning when he issued a leadoff walk to Paul DeJong and allowed singles to Tyler O’Neill, Jedd Gyorko and Dexter Fowler. While Archer threw only 36.8 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, it didn’t come back to hurt him until he walked DeJong.

Archer had no control issues in his second start with Pittsburgh, and if anything, he was hanging around too often in the middle of the strike zone (see pitch chart below). Though the only runs he allowed came off of David Dahl’s two-run homer, Archer tallied just three strikeouts and six swinging strikes on 98 pitches.

Recommendation: Archer escaped with a win and two runs allowed in a Coors Field start, but it’s understandable if owners are concerned about the low whiff count. However, he coaxed 15 swings-and-misses against the Cardinals and had a perfectly good start, except for the isolated flurry of singles. Despite some underwhelming initial results, there is no reason to bench Archer in any format. If he builds a string of starts where he is in the middle of the zone too often, only then should owners start to be concerned.