Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts: Lance Lynn and Kenta Maeda

Sometimes I have to stretch a little to include certain pitchers in either the Two Good Starts or Two Bad Starts category. It’s just unwieldly to occasionally call this column Two Good Starts, One Bad Start and One Meh Start, for example.

In the case of Lance Lynn, his recent game log could be more accurately described as One Excellent Start, One Great Long Relief Appearance and One Decent Start. I’m not changing the name of the column, but I’m going ahead and squeezing the square peg into the round hole. If it feels better to convince yourself that Lynn’s final start with the Twins was genuinely good or that his long relief debut for the Yankees was really a start, I am not going to stop you.

Two Good Starts: Lance Lynn

Setting the Stage: Lynn ended his 20-start tenure with the Twins on an up note, but overall, there had been far more bad than good. He came to the Yankees one day before the trade deadline (in exchange for Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo) with a 5.10 ERA. Though Lynn did tally five starts with a game score of 60 or higher, he had eight starts with a game score of 40 or lower and three starts that were below 30.

What’s Different: While Lynn’s July 27 quality start was better than his typical starts for the Twins, he has taken his results up a couple of notches since putting on pinstripes. However, the improvement may have more to do with matchups than laundry. With a 22.3 percent K-rate, Lynn has been decent as a strikeout pitcher this season, so it’s hardly surprising he was able to get more than a strikeout per inning against the Orioles and White Sox, the latter of which has the highest K% in the majors. It’s also unsurprising that Lynn would get only three strikeouts in six innings against the Red Sox, who own the majors’ third-lowest K%.

We can give Lynn some credit, however, for improved control. He has only two walks over his last 17.2 innings, even though he has not been especially good at inducing chases (29.6 percent O-Swing). After having located in the strike zone at a 36.0 percent rate through his first 19 starts, Lynn has a 43.6 percent Zone% over this brief recent stretch.

We should also recognize that improved control and favorable matchups have taken only taken Lynn so far. Over his last three appearances, Lynn has compiled a 95.9 percent LOB%, and he has stranded all eight of his baserunners as a Yankee.

Recommendation: As a Twin, Lynn had done a fair job of getting strikeouts and inducing soft contact, so reducing his walk rate could make a real difference in his value. It is a little too soon to trust that Lynn will continue to throw strikes — or not get clobbered if he works too much in the zone — but it is definitely a trend to watch over his next couple of starts. His scheduled start this Saturday is against the Rangers, and they currently rank eighth in walk rate. If Lynn can maintain his low-walk trend against them, it could be a very good sign.

Two Bad Starts: Kenta Maeda

Setting the Stage: Maeda has not always been consistent or known for going deep into starts, but heading into his final start of July, he appeared to be turning a corner. Over his prior six appearances, which included a seven-pitch relief outing against the Angels, Maeda had compiled a 2.20 ERA with 44 strikeouts and six walks over 32.2 innings. Three of his five starts lasted seven innings.

What’s Different: Less than a week before Maeda embarked on his current micro-slump, Jay Jaffe wrote about how his improvement coincided with a change in his arsenal. One change in particular was Maeda’s increased reliance on his changeup, which has been exceptionally effective (.172 wOBA) this season. During his late June-to-late July surge, Maeda used his changeup at a 21.7 percent rate, but in each of his last two starts, he used it less than 15 percent of the time. Meanwhile, his slider usage increased from 22.7 to 34.0 percent.

While Maeda’s slider has been an effective pitch overall (.293 wOBA), it’s not been as good as his changeup. It was also not an especially good pitch in his most recent start against the Astros, as he induced only two swings-and-misses out of 30 pitches. He also located his slider frequently below the strike zone, and as the pitch chart from Baseball Savant clearly shows, the Astros were not chasing after his low pitches.

Recommendation: It’s not clear why Maeda decided to go away from his changeup in his last two starts, but that choice appears to have played a role in his recent difficulties. We are essentially back to Square One with Maeda. His upside remains tempting, but his encounters with his floor occur often enough to make him difficult to trust. If you’re inclined to take a gamble on Maeda, at least think twice about it when he is facing selective teams like the Astros. It won’t be difficult to stay away from Maeda when he pitches at Colorado this Friday, but his following scheduled start against the Giants may merit a wait-and-see approach.