Which of the Top Non-Closing Relievers Will Have Value?

With Thursday morning’s trade of Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Indians for Francisco Mejia, we have our first big reliever deal of the second half. While we now have to wait and see how Terry Francona balances his usage of Hand, Cody Allen and, eventually, Andrew Miller, we have had months to consider how Andy Green might deal with save situations once the Padres dealt their closer away.

Now that Hand is an ex-Padre, the task doesn’t seem any easier. Based on usage and performance, Kirby Yates would appear to be next-in-line for saves, but he could be traded as well. If that happened, saves would probably fall to Craig Stammen.

Saves aside, both Yates and Stammen figure to have value in the second half for some fantasy owners. Heading into the All-Star break, Yates had a 1.43 ERA and a 32.4 percent strikeout rate. Stammen’s ERA (2.91) and K-rate (26.8 percent) were less impressive, though still solid, and he is the owner of an exceptional 4.7 percent walk rate.

Yates and Stammen share two skills that are practically essential for a reliever to have fantasy value if they are not getting saves. Both have O-Swing rates above 35 percent and both have been getting swinging strikes at a rate in excess of 14 percent. While the appeal of the latter is obvious, the former is important, too. This is not only because it shows that a pitcher can get hitters to chase pitches that are harder to hit well, but it gives a pitcher a better chance to improve their strikeout and walk rates.

Yet Yates and Stammen lack one particular strength that would truly place them among the best and most reliable relievers. Whether measured by soft contact rate, average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives, or average flyball distance, neither is a standout in inducing harmless contact. This does not disqualify them from being useful in fantasy, even if they don’t get saves, but there could be better targets out there for owners who need relievers with strikeouts and good ratios.

Each of the top five relievers in terms of Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater) possesses a strong ability to induce both chases and whiffs. Three of them — Edwin Diaz, Craig Kimbrel and Sean Doolittle — also excel at getting hitters to make soft contact at a high rate. However, closers are not the only relievers who have displayed this trinity of critical skills. Several setup relievers possess them as well, and over the remaining two-plus months of the season, they could help owners in a variety of ways.

Below is the list of every qualified reliever who has achieved an O-Swing% of at least 34 percent, a SwStrk% of at least 13 percent and a Soft% of at least 20 percent. Though their ERAs, WHIPs and strikeout rates don’t always reflect it, they’re doing it all — missing bats, reducing their chances for walks and limiting the damage when they do allow contact.

Diaz, Kimbrel and Doolittle are joined on this list by seven non-closers and a pair of current closers — Joakim Soria and Raisel Iglesias — who could soon get traded to teams that won’t use them in their current roles. Some of the current non-closers could be picking up saves down the stretch, while others could be useful without a steady stream of saves. But which ones are most worth investing in now?

Without question, the current non-closer on the list who has the best chance of becoming a closer is Hildenberger. With the Twins needing a miraculous turnaround to get back in the playoff picture, Fernando Rodney could get dealt, and Hildenberger looks like his most likely heir apparent. He will need saves to be of value in fantasy, because despite his ability to get swinging strikes and chases, he does not look due to improve his 22.5 percent strikeout rate. Over his two major league seasons to date, he has a 16.1 percent foul ball rate that is 1.5 percentage points below the major league average (per Baseball-Reference).

With Zach Britton and Mychal Givens almost certainly on the move, Brach might have a chance to parlay his skills into saves once again. Poor control (40.3 percent Zone%) has neutralized the impact of his high O-Swing%, and an inexplicably high BABIP (.372) has further bloated his ERA (4.46) and WHIP (1.73). Those poor stats may have ruined Brach’s trade value, but if he remains with the Orioles, he could become their closer by default. With some better control and luck, he could be an effective one.

Tepera just returned from the DL on Sunday, but there is a chance he could pick up a few saves before the anticipated return of Roberto Osuna on Aug. 5. Not only is Tepera’s window for saves a short one, but there are two other deserving candidates to close in Tyler Clippard and the resurgent Seung Hwan Oh. Like Brach, Tepera has been held back by poor control (39.0 percent Zone%), and he has not demonstrated particularly good control in either of his previous two seasons. What we’ve seen in the first half just might be Tepera’s ceiling.

Hembree could also stand to throw more strikes (41.9 percent Zone%), and he had done just that prior to this season. He is already boasting a 30.9 percent strikeout rate, but even with the struggles of Joe Kelly in the setup role, Hembree is nowhere close to getting saves. Recall Kimbrel’s presence on this very same list of relievers with outstanding skills. However, Hembree is vastly underowned in holds leagues, and even without improvements in his control, he could be an ERA and WHIP surger in the second half. He posted a first-half BABIP of .309, but his strong penchant for getting dribblers and popups suggests he deserves better. So does his .246 xBABIP in the first half.

Devenski and Harris are well-known to deep-league owners, but they don’t stand much of a chance of helping with saves, as I don’t expect that Hector Rondon is going to vacate the Astros’ closer role. Rondon himself just missed the cutoff for the above list with a 33.3 percent O-Swing%, and while he has not induced much soft contact (14.1 percent rate), he has done a good job of limiting the most damaging kinds of contact (6.4 percent Value Hit rate, per xStats.org). Still, Devenski could get the occasional save and should continue to help owners with strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. Harris could do that as well, but he needs to reverse his 26.7 percent line drive rate from the first half.

Now we finally come to probably the least appreciated reliever on the list: Goeddel. With the Dodgers shopping for bullpen reinforcements, Goeddel has little chance to help with holds, much less saves. He slumped in the latter part of June, but he has rebounded so far in July and seen his velocity spike slightly as well. Goeddel is already proving to be a potential boon in strikeouts (28.6 percent rate) and ERA (2.76), and if he can throw more strikes like he did when he was with the Mets, he could be a surprise deep-league contributor in the second half.