Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts: Frankie Montas and Charlie Morton

If the All-Star break is a momentum-stopper, then this week’s exercise of finding meaning in back-to-back surprising starts could be moot. Charlie Morton, who entered the break with consecutive disappointing efforts, will roll into Wednesday night’s start at Coors Field against the Rockies having not pitched in a game in 13 days. Frankie Montas may have had some success against the Indians and Astros before the break, but Tuesday night’s outing at the Rangers comes after a 15-day hiatus.

Still, taking a peek at these pitchers’ two most recent starts can give us some context for evaluating their upcoming assignments. If Montas breezes through his start against the Rangers, who rank 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitchers, can we merely chalk it up to a favorable matchup after he held his own against two of the top six offenses against righties? And if Morton flubs his first start of the second half, should we blame it on the Coors Effect?

Let’s dig into the recent past for some answers.

Two Good Starts: Frankie Montas

Frankie Montas’ Two Good Starts
Date Opponent IP H R ER BB K
Jul 1 vs. CLE 5.2 9 3 3 0 6
Jul 9 at HOU 6 3 0 0 2 2

What’s Different: Montas began this season’s tenure in the Athletics’ rotation with three strong quality starts, but he came back to earth by posting sub-20 game scores in two of his next three starts. While Montas’ stat lines from his last two starts are not sensational, they are respectable, considering the degree of difficulty in the matchups.

It’s no coincidence that Montas succeeded in different ways in the two starts, since he pitched very differently in each outing. Against the Indians, he pounded the strike zone at a 52.8 percent rate, and that enabled him to collect six strikeouts and avoid issuing a walk. We should not overlook that he did give up nine hits, including seven doubles. Not only were the pitches that yielded the doubles located in the strike zone, but most were right in the center. Viewed optimistically, Montas was one out away from a quality start, but from another view, he was lucky to have come that close.

Then against the Astros, Montas was effectively wild, throwing only 38.6 percent of his pitches in the zone, but getting chases on 37.0 percent of his offerings outside of the strike zone. To accomplish that against an Astros team that has the majors’ fifth lowest O-Swing% (29.0 percent) is worth noting. It’s also a striking aberration for Montas, who had a modest 26.1 percent O-Swing% on the season entering that start.

Recommendation: Good control appeared to serve Montas well in his first three starts, when he somehow walked away with a .238 BABIP. It was less helpful once BABIP regression hit him hard in subsequent starts. Looking just a little beyond the surface, Montas’ two good starts were really a bad outing disguised as a near-quality start and a promising performance against a tough opponent. It’s best to avoid Montas in nearly all formats for now, but if he can trade control for some better command, he could be an option for mixed leagues with 15 or more teams down the stretch. Putting together a good start against the Rangers would be a step in the right direction.

Two Bad Starts: Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton’s Two Bad Starts
Date Opponent IP H R ER BB K
Jul 7 vs. CHW 5.2 5 5 5 2 8
Jul 12 vs. OAK 4.1 6 3 3 2 5

What’s Different: Morton did not lack for strikeouts in his two most recent starts, and with four doubles and no homers allowed (.098 Iso), he was not bedeviled by extra-base hits. Yet the flurry of singles and .379 BABIP were not necessarily signs of bad luck. He induced grounders at a mere 37.9 percent rate, while allowing line drives at a 27.6 percent rate.

A two-game batted ball trend is hardly worth noticing, but it turns out that Morton has not been living up to his Ground Chuck moniker for some time. Over his last eight starts, his ground ball rate is only slightly better at 42.6 percent, and he has been allowing line drives at a whopping 29.6 percent rate. It was hard to notice, because prior to his two most recent turns in the Astros’ rotation, he had reeled off a string of four straight quality starts. Over the eight starts combined, he also tallied 61 strikeouts over 44.2 innings, but the airborne contact did take a toll, contributing to a 4.03 ERA.

His ground ball tendencies have been especially absent against left-handed hitters. Over the eight-start stretch, Morton has compiled a 48.5 percent ground ball rate against righties, and while that’s slightly below his recent norms, he has limited them to a .231 wOBA. Lefties, however, have made Morton look like a flyball pitcher, hitting grounders at a 32.5 percent rate and amassing a .384 wOBA. The heatmaps below offer an explanation for why lefties have been so productive against him.

There has been a dramatic change in Morton’s location pattern against left-handed hitters, as he has been avoiding pitching away from them. Over his career, he has induced grounders more frequently when pitching away from lefties.

Recommendation: Even though the Rockies don’t typically boast a lefty-heavy lineup, it’s a good idea to sit Morton on Wednesday, if possible. His next two scheduled opponents, the Mariners and Giants, have not been especially tough on righties, so Morton’s righty/lefty splits aside, it should be safe to start him. We just may be at the point where we do have to think about matchups in deciding whether or not to start the 34-year-old.





Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.

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